cwolf2012
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Everything posted by cwolf2012
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Counsell is not an every day player. Why not give Escobar a shot to see what he can do? The guy is going to be our future SS, why mess around and have him and JJ on the same roster in AAA? -
Bill Hall DFAed, Bourgeois called up
cwolf2012 replied to Invader3K's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
We already have Jody Gerut, who has been coming around lately. I think Heether was a much better call up than Bourgeois. -
I like xFIP better than FIP since it's adjusted for league average HR/FB rates.
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If Joe Schlubansky posted a 3.11 ERA the year before at age 41 before getting hurt, I'm pretty sure he would get some attention.
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Did you notice who I matched those totals with? The only starter in our rotation now with better peripherals is Gallardo, and Parra is about equivalent. For 150k and star power, he's absolutely worth it. EDIT: If he continued to pitch exactly the same with the exact same results, his FIP and xFIP would remain the same. They are adjusted statistics. Like I said, if you believe that he is a .390 BABIP pitcher, who leaves only 57% of runners on base (league average is around 70-75% I believe), and is twice as bad at keeping flyballs in the park than his entire career before this, then yes, you are right and he is done. I don't believe that he is any of those things, though.
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You don't think any of that could be small sample size related?
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For what the data I've presented is worth, I disagree with you on this. He strikes out more people and walks less. If you believe the double career HR/FB ratio, his LOB% of 57%, and his .390 BABIP against are legit, then yes, he is bad. If not, he's still a very legitimate starter.
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Why would he have to be a reliever? We have Carlos Villanueva and *insert name here* in the rotation right now. If we sign Smoltz, it needs to be as a SP, at least to start.
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His peripherals suggest otherwise. If a sample of 8 games is enough to convince you that he doesn't have at least some of his stuff from last year, then so be it. FIP and xFIP totals for this season: Suppan: 5.60 - 5.26 Looper: 5.75 - 4.78 Bush: 5.86 - 4.85 Smoltz: 4.96 - 4.36 Parra: 4.36 - 4.62 Do you think that he has no value at all? Stats suggest that even if he continues pitching like he has, he'll be the 2nd or 3rd best pitcher on the staff. Plus, he'll be pitching in the NL central, and not the AL East which is far and away the best division in the MLB. EDIT: Think of it from an economic perspective as well. I can tell you for sure that I would want to see Smoltz pitch for the Brewers. It would get me to buy another ticket this season and I'm certain that I'm not the only one. He will give us more value than the $150k we pay in performance, and he will drive attendance up.
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We're only 6 games out and starting the easiest stretch of our schedule with 2 starters still out. If Smoltz is available for a prorated $400k contract, why would you not take the chance?
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Smoltz is better than he has performed this year. He has a sub 2 BB/9, and above a 7 K/9. He also has a 4.93 FIP, but I suspect that will drop with the WAY too high HR/FB ratio he has right now. If he'll sign with the Brewers, we should sign him. The Brewers need to take a chance on a guy like Smoltz.
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Jody Gerut is absolutely better than Patterson pretty much across the board. I guess Patterson has more power and more speed, but those are outweighed by defense, discipline, and better general hitting ability. If anyone here honestly believes that Gerut is not better than he has played so far for the Brewers, then I have to facepalm. Gerut was an awesome pickup, and I wouldn't be upset if he's our starting CF next year.
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I've liked pretty much every trade Jack Z has made so far. He seems to know how to sell high on perception (see Betancourt, Yuniesky) and buy low on undervalued players (Snell, Ian). We'll see what happens in a few years when our pitching prospects mature, but for now it seems like Jack Z is better at the trading part of managing.
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I wanted Snell. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif
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lcbj68c, you are the most pessimistic poster on this entire board. Remind me, why do you still post here? You don't even seem like a Brewer fan. I don't think I've seen you say one thing positive about the team, the manager, the farm system, or the GM in the last month.
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I'm not trying to say that 100 pitches is the correct cutoff, but you have to maximize value while minimizing risk. Very very few pitchers in the world are capable of throwing at the same effectiveness after 100 or so pitches. I remember a study saying that performance, on average, begins to diminish at around 80 pitches, and starts getting exponentially worse after 100 pitches. Now, this is on average, so a pitcher may have different thresholds, but with a young pitcher like Gallardo who is coming off an injury, why would you treat him as having an above average threshold? Similarly, there have been a lot of studies that have shown the injury risk goes up at a much higher rate when you go past the previous years innings total by more than 20-30. I think it's safe to say that we don't have to hold him to this standard this year, but going 30 over 2007's total seems like a really big stretch to me. I have no doubt that Gallardo does have a strong arm that could handle some extra pitches, I just think it's dumb to treat him like he's CC Sabathia.
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"If 20 IP per season was so reliable why do pitchers still get hurt following that regimine?" Because of uncertainty? There's always risk of getting injured, period. This risk is even higher with pitchers than pretty much any position in any sport. If you're going to insist on results based thinking, then screw it, throw caution to the wind. Let him pitch 140 pitches a game and throw 270 innings. If he gets injured, you can fall back on "he might have gotten hurt anyway" and if he doesn't and he somehow doesn't perform incredibly poorly, then you can say you were right. It's a can't lose situation. EDIT: I think my favorite example of someone who didn't get injured due to abuse, but lost career length due to abuse is Livan Hernandez. He was a stud for a few years, and he led the league by a LOT in abuse points. He went from a guy who could have been a top-tier pitcher for a long time to a mediocre starter in 3 seasons. Do you want Gallardo to follow that same career path? Do you want to risk it?
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The key word there is "nearly." If he's going to throw those last 20 pitches, he better be not be fatigued. When the velocity begins to dip hard, that means pull the pitcher.
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"How to blow up a picture..." It's easy. Find an m-80 at any local fireworks reseller, light fuse, lay picture on top of it. Blown up.
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7.1 innings of relief is hardly a big enough sample size to even make a judgement, Ralph. Calling him a "bad MLB pitcher" would be akin to calling a top AHL hockey player a "bad NHL player" because he didn't have a point a game in his first 5 NHL games.
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"I have a 6th sense for this type of thing and am very often correct. " Or, you got it right once, and have disregarded it every time you were wrong since then.
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I'd rather have Gerut than pretty much anyone on the waiver wire at this point. He's our only insurance against a Cameron injury/non-signing.
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"Yeah, the fact that (I think) we offered LaPorta rather than Gamel for CC makes me think/hope Gamel will produce better than LaPorta" We offered LaPorta because he was blocked by Fielder and we desperately needed to keep our only good left handed hitting prospect. Gamel at least offered some versatility. LaPorta had the better bat, but he was unlikely to be able to move off of 1B and be effective.
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With Gamel's strides on defense, he's looking more and more like he could be a very legitimate top-tier 3B. If his defense continues to improve, he'll be an extremely valuable asset to the Brewers in the future (and really, should be now).
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Mark Buehrle throws perfect game vs. Rays
cwolf2012 replied to lcbj68c's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Congrats to Buerhle.
