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cwolf2012

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Everything posted by cwolf2012

  1. cwolf2012
    I chose other. His name is Donald, and he will put up the most fWAR of anyone on this team by at least 1. EDIT: I guess I should have fully read the question. I want to change my answer to Rickie Weeks.
  2. cwolf2012
    Brett Gardner put up a 5.4 WAR season last year as a sophomore. It was not sarcasm. The Yankees see him as a huge part of the future. Now, do I think he's actually that good? Probably not, but he's quick, gets on base very well (>10% BB rate for pretty much every season including the minors, >15% for most seasons), and plays really really good defense. This guy is very valuable, and we have nothing in our system they would want except Gallardo (or Greinke). They would have to send more than just Gardner to get Gallardo, but Gallardo would have to be in the package. Something like Gardner plus one of the 3 B's (their top 3 pitching prospects) would probably be what could happen. Would anyone of you seriously trade Gardner for Parra and Gomez if you're the Yankees?
  3. cwolf2012
    It'd be great to have him, but there's no way we don't break the team to trade enough to get him. We'd probably have to trade Gallardo to get him.
  4. cwolf2012
    Me and a couple friends are strongly considering it right now. I haven't been to Boston before, and I doubt I'll ever get a better excuse.
  5. cwolf2012
    I had a hard time finding anything specific to defense, but here's a very good article about aging in general in baseball. http://www.hardballtimes....ball-players-age-part-1/ It's a pretty long article.
  6. cwolf2012
    I think he definitely has a desire to work for a smaller market team. Having seen the way he operates, he definitely wants to build from within. He probably doesn't like the perception that he essentially has a blank check and doesn't need any talent to be a winning GM.
  7. cwolf2012
    backupcatchers, the defensive decline happens very early in baseball. For most outfielders, age 27 or so (as stated earlier) is when you should start to see the talent start to drop off. Three seasons of subpar defense is a pretty good indication that he actually plays subpar defense. Could it be a 3 year fluke? Absolutely. Is there good reason to think it is other than pure hope? Not really. I'm of the opinion that falling off the face of the earth was inevitable for the Angels. Their manager and GM clearly don't use advanced stats in any way to quantify the value of their players. They play small ball in the early innings of games. Their run was based a lot on their pitching, which is starting to catch up with them now that everyone is older. Scioscia gets a lot of love from a lot of people, but I can tell you right now that I wouldn't want him managing the Brewers. It's what makes me a bit concerned about Roenicke. He could very easily be Scioscia 2.0.
  8. cwolf2012
    "1, Carpenter vs. Grienke Even. That's assuming Grienke is closer to the 09 version and/or that Carpenter at 36 should regress some." If Greinke is '09 Greinke, he is the best pitcher in baseball by a LOT. Carpenter couldn't touch him with a 3.0 WAR pole in 2009. 9.4 WAR! 9.4!!!! "2. Wainwright vs. Gallardo. Edge to Cards. Wainwright was the best pitcher in the NL last year through mid August but stumbled down the stretch. Yo has yet to be as consistent over a long period." Agreed. I would take Wainwright over Gallardo for a season. Gallardo being 4 years younger is nice, though. "3. Marcum vs. Garcia. Edge to Brewers. Garcia's numbers were a bit misleading. His WHIP of 1.316 wasn't nearly as good as Marcum's last 3 full seasons. Garcia is not likely to repeat a sub 3.00 ERA." They are very similar pitchers. I take Marcum only because he has proven it for more than one season. If last year's Garcia is legit, he may be better than Marcum. 4. Wolf vs. Westbrook. Even. Both veterans with similar numbers. I'd take Wolf. The worse infield defense that STL is going to play this year is going to hurt Westbrook for sure. "5. Narveson vs. Lohse. Edge to Brewers. Lohse was ghastly (worse than Suppan) in 2010 with a WHIP of nearly 1.8 and an ERA over 6 and a half. If you assume Narveson wasn't fluky, he's better than Lohse at this point." Agreed. All in all, though, the Brewers now have the pitcher with the most upside of any team in the NL Central (and yes, that includes Chapman).
  9. cwolf2012
    "They probably employ hackers anyway to help them defend against viruses. " My company has an entire security department dedicated to this. They are all essentially "white-hat" hackers. They go onsite, and attempt to break into everything they can and then fix the vulnerabilities before the bad guys find them. Ethical hacking is a common term.
  10. cwolf2012
    No spanish speaking coach on the staff again... When you have Gomez and Escobar, two of our biggest projects and who need the most instruction, you have to hire a Spanish speaking coach, don't you?
  11. cwolf2012
    There was at least 1 person who didn't put Posey on the ballot and at least 1 person who didn't have Heyward on the ballot. The BBWAA is crazy.
  12. cwolf2012
    Not to rain on parades... but here's the date from the article you posted. Sunday, October 26th 2008, 11:11 AM It also talks about the Rays - Phillies WS being their last call together.
  13. cwolf2012
    I think, by your definition Oxy, there is NO luck at all. Perhaps the pitcher knew that wind gusts would be picking up, and knew the hitter would try to pull the ball on a certain pitch and forced him to hit it into the wind. Trying to quantify what amounts to random events really doesn't help at all in a predictive sense at all, so it's far better from a predictive sense to treat these instances as "luck" than some sort of formula of completely unquantifiable and unknowable causes. EDIT: To quote myself in another thread: "but rather a complex system of variables which is incredibly difficult to quantify yielding a result that appears to be random on the surface" Not to cherry pick your post too much, but this is essentially luck. I agree that the situations had specific variables that are absolutely unquantifiable or predictable that led to the specific (if inevitable) outcome that is based 100% on those specific circumstances. It's called determinism in philosophy. Instead of trying to act like those variables can be controlled or manipulated, it's much much easier to refer to that as "luck."
  14. cwolf2012
    FWIW, Cabrera was completely wrong. I just looked at the gameday pitch data, and there was only one pitch that I saw that was not a strike called a strike, and a few strikes that were called balls for Halladay. To me, it looked like the ump did a pretty good job. I've never been a big fan of Cabrera, though, so whatever.
  15. cwolf2012
    I think BR uses ERA or something other than FIP for WAR on pitchers.
  16. cwolf2012
    Hitters are much better now than they were back in those days. Pitchers have to expend a LOT more effort per pitch in the current era than ever before. They also throw with significantly more break/spin, and they throw sliders. They are also much more valuable to a franchise than ever before, so yes, they don't take chances.
  17. cwolf2012
    "Gallardo has 2.6 WAR" Where are you getting that from? Fangraphs has Gallardo at 4.9 WAR for pitching, and Wolf at .7 still.
  18. cwolf2012
    Luck is a big part of any sport. In a game of such low percentages, it's magnified. Part of it frustrates me, and part of it intrigues me. It allows me to at least utilize a bit of my mathematical background on actual numbers. That's nice too.
  19. cwolf2012
    Don't forget, Prince Fielder comes packaged with 2 early draft picks as well or the value you get at midseason if you want to trade him. Now, the Brewers would never trade for a player like Fielder. The Brewers have to keep young talent to make payroll. Bigger markets/teams in contention could go from borderline playoff teams to WS contenders with the addition of Fielder.
  20. cwolf2012
    "I live closer to the Cities than Milwaukee, so it'd be easy to root for the Twinkies. " While the first half of that isn't true for me, I could probably convince myself to root for the Twins. It would be the only conceivable Minnesota team I could ever root for in any sport.
  21. cwolf2012
    Honestly? Probably the Reds now. With Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto expressing so much disgust for the Cubs and the Cardinals, I could easily see myself rooting for them. I could also be a fan of the Rays, since I like how they are a small-payroll team actually beating big market teams.
  22. cwolf2012
    The cost of getting it fixed is not worth it on something like that. You'll have to replace the entire LCD, which will run a minimum of $200 for an older laptop, and upwards of $400 for a newer machine. Since you can buy a reasonably decent laptop at Best Buy for $500, it's not worth it to me.
  23. cwolf2012
    "It isn't hypocritical. In college sports your team's success depends on the perception of the conference and thus the success of the other teams in your conference on the national level." Also, interconference play doesn't count against your team in college sports either. If WI loses every non-conference game they play, and every other B10 team goes undefeated, it doesn't affect the final outcome of the conference. This is not true in professional sports. If the Packers go 6-0 in division games, but 0-10 outside, they don't win the division. If the Badgers go 0-4 in nonconference, and 8-0 in the Big Ten, they win the conference. I root for the B10 in any inter-conference stuff as long as Minnesota isn't in the game. They are the only team in the Big Ten I will pretty much never root for.
  24. cwolf2012
    1. Cubs. No matter what happens, I don't see this ever changing. The only team that could ever conceivably uproot them would be the Cardinals. 2. Cardinals. Only in the last couple years have I really starting hating the Cards. I used to root for Pujols! I thought he was a nice guy and we shared a common enemy with the fans. Now, he is my least favorite player in the entire major leagues. 3. Yankees. For every reason you would suspect. I don't really hate any other teams. The White Sox and the Twins would be up there, but there's no real rivalry for me with them. The WS hate the Cubs, and I don't really have anything against them, so meh. I also would have had the Reds up here until Votto and Phillips started talking. They have my full support for at least this season.
  25. cwolf2012
    According to rluz's link, we get the following data. [align=center]Pitch Statistics[/align] Pitch Type Avg Speed Max Speed Avg H-Break Avg V-Break Count Strikes / % Swinging Strikes / % Linear Weights Time to Plate FF (FourSeam Fastball)94.1396.15.328.883926 / 66.67%5 / 12.82% 1.85570.395CH (Changeup)85.1286.16.600.9752 / 40.00%1 / 20.00% -0.07680.436CU (Curveball)78.6279.60.77-5.032214 / 63.64%5 / 22.73% -1.11190.472FS (Splitter)85.7088.15.374.681611 / 68.75%2 / 12.50% 0.64930.435FT (TwoSeam Fastball)93.5595.37.626.76186 / 33.33%0 / 0.00% 0.79170.398So, he apparently throws a 2 seamer, but not for strikes. Same velocity, different movement. I wonder if a cut fastball is doable?
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