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TerraceReserved

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Everything posted by TerraceReserved

  1. TerraceReserved
    Wow. I may be completely wrong. Using Pinto's Lineup Analysis tool, I just found some very surprising results. I used this lineup: Weeks Cameron Fielder Braun Hart Hall Hardy Kendall Pitcher I used Zips projections for all the position players, and I averaged the career averages of the 5 most likely starting pitchers. (Sheets, Suppan, Gallardo, Bush, Cappy) Their line was .193/.231 (OBP/SLG) With all that plugged in, a lineup with the pitcher batting 9th scores 4.962 runs per game. With the pitcher batting 8th, that number jumps to 5.128. So heres the run gain: Pitcher 8th: 831 RS Pitcher 9th: 804 RS Wow. That's 27 runs, almost 3 wins! Either I did something wrong in the process, or this strategy will add 25-30 runs over the season. Edit: I wondered whether having Gallardo's stellar stats last year affected the results, so I regressed his performace to .250/.350, then ran the same process. There was no difference at all. Still 27 runs gained.
  2. TerraceReserved
    Ya, I checked the Book and the difference is 2 runs per year, given average hitters in the rest of the lineup. And even with the Brewers lineup, or any lineup, there's no way the difference is 25-30 runs. Sure, it could be more, but I'd expect a modest gain, from 2-5 runs. I honestly have no idea how our stat's guy came up with those numbers.
  3. TerraceReserved
    The difference definitely isn't 25-30 runs. I don't have The Book on hand, but if I remember correctly it's around 5-10 runs added.
  4. TerraceReserved
    How about look at his minor league track record? In 472 IP he had 205 BB's. So he had a 3.87 BB/9 in the minors, a 6.9 BB/9 in 06, and a 4.54 BB/9 last year. Seems pretty in line with career norms. He had a 9.25 K/9 in the minors, a 6.9 K/9 in 06, and a 12.46 K/9 last year. Not so much in line with his career norms. The kid has absolutely wicked stuff, there's no doubt about it. But his performance with that stuff is evidenced in his periphials. And I don't think it can be stated enough that luck plays a huge role in any defense-dependent pitching stats, and that includes WHIP.
  5. TerraceReserved
    I dig that shirt.
  6. TerraceReserved
    In the 07 and 06, Turnbow has ERA's of 5.57 in 21 IP and 9.42 in 14 IP in Aug. and Sept. In '05, he had an ERA of 1.17 in those months in 23 IP, and in '03 he had a 0.00 ERA in 13 IP. In 2005 he pitched 44 innings in the first 4 months of the season, in 2006 42 innings, and 2007 47 innings. So in 2 of 3 years he was bad in the last two months and 1 year he was excellent, and he had almost exactly the same IP in all 3 years. I'm not ready to label him as a guy that will stink in Aug. and Sept. based on such a small sample of innings over the past two years, eccspecially when his past performance at that time of the year was excellent.
  7. TerraceReserved
    But those pitch counts and innings numbers are averages of what happens. Obviously there's plenty of pitchers that will pitch more innings regardless of the pitches he throws before age 26, but there are a lot of pitchers doing the opposite. And the average is what counts.
  8. TerraceReserved
    As for Bush and Vargas, has either shown he is any better than a decent 5th starter or a bad 4th starter? Yes. Bush is colossally better than Vargas, and has 3rd starter capabilities. Vargas on the other hand is nothing more than a 5th starter. I think full potential for Bush is a sub-4 ERA, and Vargas right around 5, or high 4 ERA.
  9. TerraceReserved
    I respectfully disagree. I just don't think Bush can be any better than 12 win/ 5 era guy, Interesting. He has a career 4.53 ERA, with two seasons being in the American League. He also has a career 4.42 FIP. There is no way anyone can tell me that running out Bush and Capuano (and not to mention Vargas) gives this team a better chance at winning games than Manny and Carlos do. I for one am not convinced that Villanueva is better than Capuano and Bush. Vargas is a different story. Here are the career FIP's for those 3. Villy: 4.67 Bush: 4.42 Cappy: 4.58 Both of them are projected to have a better FIP's next year than Villy. I like the kid a lot, he's got a good stuff, but his periphial numbers don't scream sub 4 ERA. Meanwhile, Bush and Cappy pitched fine last year, but were hit with bad luck and horrible defense. And there is no way Parra should be in the rotation at the start of the year, simply due to his innings limit. As for what Manny can contirbute, there's no doubt he could be above average, even well above average in the future, but rotation on opening day? No.
  10. TerraceReserved
    Contrary to PECOTA, THT's projections have the Brewers winning the NL Central with 88 wins, 1 game ahead of the Cubs. Thought I should add that here.
  11. TerraceReserved
    Animal Crackers. They're bland, tasteless, and bad. I don't get why people eat them.
  12. TerraceReserved
    I completely disagree. If you look past ERA, our pitching was actually very good last year. With our starting 5, and our depth (Villy, Parra), we have a rotation is in the top half in the NL and maybe even top 5.
  13. TerraceReserved
    This is my first year playing fantasy baseball, and I'm confused which postion Braun will be drafted at. He's Lf in real life, but in fantasy is he a 3b for the whole year, or just for part of the year, or is he a rightfielder?
  14. TerraceReserved
    Mason Street Grill. It's expensive, but it's a good location and the food is incredible.
  15. TerraceReserved
    I have no idea what I would do on this earth without good cereal to eat everyday.
  16. TerraceReserved
    Uke is the man.
  17. TerraceReserved
    So becuase some GM's place a high value on wins, that means we should consider it a good stat? I don't think so. It's possible for a person involved in baseball to be incorrect on the value of a stat. For the past 100 years, into the 90's and even today, albeit a lot less, baseball executives have relied on batting average to judge how good a hitter is. Does that mean they were right? And as far as Sheet's GS, QS, IP leading to more wins, trwi just completely disproved that. That's what I don't get about the stat debates here. People present facts to support their viewpoint and then they're ignored by those who disagree.
  18. TerraceReserved
    Edit: I joined, but due to some outside factors I can't due it anymore. My bad.
  19. TerraceReserved
    Not quite. Over the past 7 years, Houston has scored 5355 runs, for an average of 765 a year. In that time, Milwaukee has scored 4972 runs, for 710 a year. The runs that Houston scored play a large part in his number of wins. And besides, the point is moot. I don't think anyone would argue that Sheets has produced more by any statistical measure. He has a career 3.07 ERA to Sheets' 3.83. Sheets has 1229 IP, Oswalt has 1413 IP. Oswalt has a career FIP of 3.36 and Sheets a 3.76. Oswalts been better, no doubt about it. His team has also scored more runs behind him. Bringing up that example doesn't prove anything toward the validity of W/L records.
  20. TerraceReserved
    Not quite. Over the past 7 years, Houston has scored 5355 runs, for an average of 765 a year. In that time, Milwaukee has scored 4972 runs, for 710 a year. The runs that Houston scored play a large part in his number of wins. And besides, the point is moot. I don't think anyone would argue that Sheets has produced more by any statistical measure. He has a career 3.07 ERA to Sheets' 3.83. Sheets has 1229 IP, Oswalt has 1413 IP. Oswalt has a career FIP of 3.36 and Sheets a 3.76. Oswalts been better, no doubt about it. His team has also scored more runs behind him. Bringing up that example doesn't prove anything toward the validity of W/L records.
  21. TerraceReserved
    Not quite. Over the past 7 years, Houston has scored 5355 runs, for an average of 765 a year. In that time, Milwaukee has scored 4972 runs, for 710 a year. The runs that Houston scored play a large part in his number of wins. And besides, the point is moot. I don't think anyone would argue that Sheets has produced more by any statistical measure. He has a career 3.07 ERA to Sheets' 3.83. Sheets has 1229 IP, Oswalt has 1413 IP. Oswalt has a career FIP of 3.36 and Sheets a 3.76. Oswalts been better, no doubt about it. His team has also scored more runs behind him. Bringing up that example doesn't prove anything toward the validity of W/L records.
  22. TerraceReserved
    Not quite. Over the past 7 years, Houston has scored 5355 runs, for an average of 765 a year. In that time, Milwaukee has scored 4972 runs, for 710 a year. The runs that Houston scored play a large part in his number of wins. And besides, the point is moot. I don't think anyone would argue that Sheets has produced more by any statistical measure. He has a career 3.07 ERA to Sheets' 3.83. Sheets has 1229 IP, Oswalt has 1413 IP. Oswalt has a career FIP of 3.36 and Sheets a 3.76. Oswalts been better, no doubt about it. His team has also scored more runs behind him. Bringing up that example doesn't prove anything toward the validity of W/L records.
  23. TerraceReserved
    Now over the course of any particular season, factors such as run support, bullpen effectiveness (more so in the past 30 years) and luck play a part one way or another. Runs support, bullpen, and luck play a HUGE role in a pitchers win/loss record. Why acknowledge that and and then say this: When your teams "ace" only wins 12 games Sheets had absolutely no control over his win total. A pitchers job is to let up as little runs as possible. Sheets did that, and he happened to do it very well. Unfortunately for him, the offense and bullpen didn't do well behind him. Why would someone still use wins to judge a pitcher when the stats flaws are so obvious?
  24. TerraceReserved
    Now over the course of any particular season, factors such as run support, bullpen effectiveness (more so in the past 30 years) and luck play a part one way or another. Runs support, bullpen, and luck play a HUGE role in a pitchers win/loss record. Why acknowledge that and and then say this: When your teams "ace" only wins 12 games Sheets had absolutely no control over his win total. A pitchers job is to let up as little runs as possible. Sheets did that, and he happened to do it very well. Unfortunately for him, the offense and bullpen didn't do well behind him. Why would someone still use wins to judge a pitcher when the stats flaws are so obvious?
  25. TerraceReserved
    Now over the course of any particular season, factors such as run support, bullpen effectiveness (more so in the past 30 years) and luck play a part one way or another. Runs support, bullpen, and luck play a HUGE role in a pitchers win/loss record. Why acknowledge that and and then say this: When your teams "ace" only wins 12 games Sheets had absolutely no control over his win total. A pitchers job is to let up as little runs as possible. Sheets did that, and he happened to do it very well. Unfortunately for him, the offense and bullpen didn't do well behind him. Why would someone still use wins to judge a pitcher when the stats flaws are so obvious?
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