LouisEly
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Everything posted by LouisEly
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They went from 10 to 8. I wouldn't call that thin. They aren't going to be playing 2-TE sets nearly as much as they did under Chryst - they'll be playing 3 WRs/1 TE predominantly. Rucci/Pugh/Dakovich/Seagraves/Nowakowski/Large have all seen game action. Sounds like Large is still out with injury, but that still leaves five.
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I think it was an expiring asset trade. The Brewers knew that they weren't going to bring back Urias at ~$5M next year, and the delta between Urias and Monasterio/Toro/Miller is negligable, so the Brewers took an expiring asset and traded it for an asset with three option years remaining.
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I wouldn't put much stock in the MLB top 30 prospects now. I don't think it has been fully re-ranked, other than just bumping up a few guys who are blowing up or changing organizations, since before the season. Moore is not #8, Small certainly is not #11, Mendez is not #13, Valerio is not #16, Perez is not #17, and Garcia is not #20, even without the draft picks slotting in. Blalock might be close to where he really is, but they're just slotting him into a new organization and not looking at the entire list.
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Unless I missed something, the Reds only acquisition was LHRP Sam Moll from the A's. No SP acquisitions. Wonder what their fans are thinking.
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He didn't have much if any time left to turn it around. As others have said, unlikely that the Brewers would have brought him back at $5M next year, so they got something for him and have three years of options on Blalock and plenty of 40-man spots if they want to protect him from the Rule 5 draft.
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That’s all true, but Canha still gets his because he has a tremendous sense of the strike zone. He rarely chases bad pitches. He makes a ton of contact when he does swing. A career double-digit walk rate makes sense given those skills. He strikes out more than you’d think given that rosy description of his plate discipline, but that’s just because he works a lot of deep counts. The total package is basically what you’d expect: solid on-base numbers, subpar slugging, and overall production somewhere between 10 and 20% better than average. Canha’s not a superstar, or even a star, but it’s hard to look at his results and see anything worse than a good bat.
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The Brewers made it to game 7 of the NLCS in 2018 with Jhoulys Chacin, Chase Anderson, Junior Guerra, and Brent Suter as their top starting pitchers. There will be life after Burnes and Woodruff. They will likely trade Burnes in the offseason for a haul, possibly Woodruff too. There is a path to a quick rebuild. There are many ways to get to the NLCS; in 2018 it was offense and a lockdown bullpen (Knebel, Hader, Jeffress).
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Leonhard is an analyst. For all we know, his job is to sit at home and break down film. It's really a nothing-burger until he's on the sidelines somewhere.
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LHP often take longer to develop than RHP. I wouldn't read anything into him being 24/25 as far as prospect status and value. Given the likelihood of trading Burnes and Woodruff with Miley, Houser, and Lauer FAs after 2024 I highly doubt that they deal any of their upper minor league pitchers (Gasser, Rodriguez, Jarvis). I don't see them acquiring a starter, but if they do, more likely that they deal Henderson/Aquino/other A-ball pitchers. -
I'll take the contrarian angle, and of the above mentioned players the one who I'd be most willing to part with is Chourio, simply for the reason that OF is where the Brewers haven't had any difficulty finding top prospects. It's a lot harder to find pitching and catching, and Frelick has shown that he's needed in Milwaukee. Now, it would have to be a helluva return for him, but I'm moving him before Mis, Quero, or Frelick. If I'm handicapping who is most likely to be traded in any significant deal: EBJ Zamora Mendez Lara Guilarte Baez
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Turang's strikeout % (24%) is slightly above league average K% (22.6%) and his BB% (8.7%) is right there at league average (8.9%) which is good for a rookie. If those were a lot worse than league average I'd be more concerned. He needs two things - more experience against major league pitching and to get on the Matt McLain forearm strengthening program.
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Justin time... (I'll see myself out...)
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I think the top target has to be Bellinger as he can play RF, CF, 1B, or DH. Yeah, maybe he's been a bit lucky, but he's likely to be a lot better than what they've had at those positions.
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I would also add the undrafted Jeff Peterek to the list of Brewers pitchers debuts. 7 IP, 2 H against the Yankees in 1989.
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- sal frelick
- steve woodard
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Rooker is no different than Tellez. Do people not remember that Tellez had a .886 OPS in March/April and an .830 OPS as late as June 1st?
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I'm not following. In your Baez/Williams to the Mets comparison you referenced Pete Crow-Armstrong as what it took to get those two. That was the fall of 2021 - PC-A wasn't thought of nearly as highly then as he is now. He wasn't ranked in any top 100 prospect list until pre-2023. He was 19 and in A-ball and had a lot of development risk - he hadn't made the jump to AA yet. Black has, so he has much less development risk, and thus EBJ is closer now to the trade value that PC-A was in the fall of 2021. Trade values have to be discounted by risk - injury risk, age risk, development risk, performance risk. PC-A had a lot of development risk in 2021.
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.758 road OPS this year - not stellar, but certainly better than their .571 OPS in RF. (Just don't look at his road OPS last year.) Also, .927 OPS vs. LHP this year. I'd be on board.
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1) That was the Mets - they don't make the best personnel decisions. B) At the time, PC-A was a 19-year-old in A-ball with 32 career professional plate appearances to his name. There was plenty of development risk. Tyler Black has successfully made the jump to AA - he has a lot more value today than PC-A did in 2021. If it's a late 1st round pick below AA, EBJ is the much better comp. Or Guilarte or Luis Lara (or both). 3) Every team in the league has access to Bellinger's advanced metrics and the Cubs know it. Even if he does regress to his metrics, what will that project to be? Still has to be a lot better than the Brewers .571 OPS from RF. His ISO and line drive % are less than his career averages, and he is only striking out 17.7% of the time. There are reasons to think that he won't regress that much.
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Jeferson QueroJacob MisiorowskiJackson ChourioTyler BlackSal FrelickBrock WilkenRobert GasserCarlos F RodriguezJustin JarvisLogan HendersonJosh KnothAbner UribeEric Brown JrDaniel GuilarteFreddy ZamoraLuke AdamsCooper PrattLuis LaraMatthew WoodCam Devanney
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Blackmon can't hit outside of Coors either. .706 road OPS this year, .663 last year, .703 in 2021. Moustakas was traded to the Angels on June 25th.
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Cron away from Coors this year - .706 OPS. Last year - .619. Strong disagreement that he will be "fine".
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- brian anderson
- brice turang
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Who does not interest me in any way is C.J. Cron. His OPS away from Coors this year is .706, and last year was .619. Not an upgrade.
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Bellinger might be worth the risk. $12.5M mutual option next year, so no guarantee that he's back (likely declines his option if he continues at this pace), making it hard to estimate his value. Would likely have to be a PTBNL in there dependent on if he declines his option. But he solves both the RF and 1B issues though. No idea what would be a good offer. EBJ + Lara, with another piece (one of Mendez/Guilarte/Zamora) if Bellinger doesn't decline his option?
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The reality is that there just aren't going to be many bats available who are significant upgrades. The Mets - with their $335M payroll - have Daniel Vogelbach as their DH. Think about that. The Cardinals can get more for Goldschmidt that he's worth because he will likely be the only high impact bat available, even though he turns 36 in September. Same with Candelario (and there's risk there - you can't ignore 2022). Candelario may be the right risk, but with that low salary there will be competition. I don't recall seeing Brandon Drury's name brought up yet. He could help shore up the offense anywhere in the infield except SS. Under contract next year for $8.5M so not terrible. I don't know that the Brewers like his BB:K profile, but the bat is there and defensive versatility. If I'm targeting players, it's Drury and Hader. Trade them in the offseason for 75% of what it costs to acquire them.
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It's July 15th and the Yankees and Red Sox are tied for last place in the AL East.
