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LouisEly

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  1. That, and the younger Millennial/older Gen Z population has an absurd level of "Keeping up with the Joneses" not seen since the 1950's. With everybody bragging about "living their best life" on social media, there is a tremendous amount of pressure to keep up on travel/tourism/Instagram-worthy destinations, clothing (such as Canada Goose jackets), apartments (have to live in that new apartment building with the rooftop pool, yoga studio, coffee bar, dog wash...), etc. They've said that in Q4 consumer credit card debt rose sharply, and now with interest rate hikes they're paying for it. Milton Friedman said it takes 12-18 months to see effects of rises in interest rates, and we are only one year out from the first rate hike. It also takes a while for people to get out of their apartment leases and into cheaper housing (if they can find it). It's coming over the next 6 months, but as I mentioned above... what substitutes are there?
  2. My parent's neighbors dropped some off when they were heading out of town and wouldn't use them. They create an absurd amount of real waste. Not just plastic, but shipped in styrofoam containers. My grocery store tried some of these meal kits. Not sure if they still do them. But I'll never order them due to the plastic and styrofoam waste.
  3. When it comes to basic staples/commodities where the vast majority of volume is sold as store brands, wages have little to do with prices. It's about supply, cost of getting supply to market, and lack of substitutes. On the branded side, I think lack of competition has been the biggest driver of cost increases. PepsiCo's gross profit and operating income the last 12 months is higher than it was in 2019. If you want soft drinks in a can or bottle, it's basically Pepsi, Coke, or Keurig/Dr. Pepper brands. All of the M&A activity the last 5-7 years had decreased competition to the point where most industries are oligopolies if not duopolies. If you want bran flakes with raisins for breakfast, you usually have at most three choices - Kellogg's, the store brand, and maybe Post. If one raises prices, the other two follow, and then so do you unless there are adequate substitutes. I used to make eggs almost every Saturday & Sunday. Haven't bought eggs in at least 6-8 weeks; going with my Mon-Fri breakfast of oatmeal, a banana, and a protein shake. But whey protein costs have shot up too; the brand I prefer used to be $45-50 for a 5lb tub, now that's $62+ even on Amazon subscribe & save. So my substitutes have increased in price as well. Few people actively look to spend more money. Wages may make a difference in mid-to-high end brand usage, but not basic staples/low end of the cost spectrum products.
  4. If you're thinking about going to the Chicago auto show this weekend, don't bother. Lame. Yes, you can wait in a line 50+ deep to drive a Jeep or a Bronco over a small man-made hill. But only the major auto companies are there. A handful of exotics on loan from local dealerships (couple of Rolls Royce - one w/MSRP of $690K, Bentley, Lamborghini, but no Ferrari). The two McLaren's were cool, but they don't really look any different than the Corvettes or the Acura NSX. Only a couple of concept vehicles. But the most prestigious brand there is probably BMW, and I think they just had a small track for their EVs and no dedicated area/"booth". No Mercedes. GM was there but I don't recall seeing any Cadillacs. Have a few Corvette's including a hybrid version, and an Acura NSX. One GMC Hummer EV. But none of the startup brands are there - no Rivian, no Fisker, no Polestar, no Lucid. No Tesla. I really wanted to see the Fisker Ocean as that is my initial #1 if/when I need another vehicle (and leave Chicago).
  5. I'm saying that if someone is close to and contemplating retirement, their financial planner should know to sell higher risk equities after a long market rally.
  6. Yes on retirement - if they were close to retirement age and had a halfway decent financial planner, if they didn't retire in 2019 they sold everything and retired at the end of 2022 after the market spiked. Milton Friedman said 12-18 months before you can get any effect on prices from rate hikes. Fed only started tightening 11 months ago, and much slower than they probably should have.
  7. Assuming this thread is for both football and basketball. ESPNU tonight had the 30-for-30 on Phi Slamma Jamma followed by the ESPN film "The Fab Five". That got me wondering.... Who do you think is the best college team to not win the national championship during their tenure: The Fab Five (Webber, Howard, Rose, King) Phi Slamma Jamma (Olaijuwon, Drexler, Young, Micheaux) Other?
  8. I know what it is. I don't get why they're using it. I'm not in a theater watching a movie. It's sports. It doesn't add anything to the experience.
  9. The TV camera shot where the person in the foreground is in focus and everything in the background is out of focus. I don't get it.
  10. Mayer's former teammate Kyle Hamilton was quoted as saying that if there's one thing he learned during the draft process "it's that NFL teams love them some Michael Mayer". He's not exciting, but teams covet him because the list of TEs who are both good receivers and blockers is a very short list. Musgrave is getting some love because of the athleticism he's shown as a receiver during the Senior Bowl practices, but he also got blown up in run blocking in some of those reps as well. I don't foresee a tackle unless both Rodgers and Bakh get traded (Raiders and Giants have cap room for both). Even if Bakh gets traded, they could easily lock up Nijman on a multi-year deal leaving a good young duo in Nijman and Tom. Not elite, but good enough to invest in other areas of need and give time to see how the young tackles they have develop. I don't think Tom is strong enough to play interior - he will get shoved around by big, strong DTs. I think it's a two-horse race between Branch and Mayer. Given the run on WRs last year I don't see Johnston making it out of the top 10 given the lack of #1-type WRs in this draft. If both Branch and Mayer are gone, I foresee a trade down and grabbing Musgrave or Washington late in the 1st/early 2nd or... Spoiler alert - watch for the combine/pro day testing for Keion White, DE/Edge, Georgia Tech.
  11. Raptor's career as a reliever: 26-7, 2.90 ERA, 205 IP, 56 BB, 183 K, 1.185 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 3.27 K/BB, .686 OPS-A Dude got the job done.
  12. I'm struggling to think of any time that I've gotten food delivery that wasn't pizza and/or for a large gathering. I always go carryout as you get the food faster and less things that can go wrong along the way.
  13. Yep, the layoffs, particularly in the tech sector, come with severance that I'm sure many are going to use to take some time off, travel, and do some bucket list things before job searching. The unemployment claims are forthcoming. Other context to the jobs report: The labor force participation rate edged higher to 62.4%. Greater supply of workers. Every 0.1% increase in labor participation rate is an additional >$300K workers. A broader measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons also edged higher to 6.6%. A bulk of the created jobs (128K) were in the leisure & hospitality sector, which involve a lot of part-time and lower-wage jobs.
  14. I'm sure you can. When your doctor orders it, it will be shipped to your home. After you receive the kit you can take it, poop, and ship from anywhere. Maybe check the shipping requirements, but I don't see why it has to be shipped from your home.
  15. Cologuard. Not sure if you're high risk, but for people who are average risk the American Cancer Society says that either a colonoscopy or a stool-based test (i.e. Cologuard) is fine. And Cologuard is covered 100% on my health plan, whereas a colonoscopy isn't - and I have a high deductible health plan. Unfortunately my doctor knows little about Cologuard and fought me on my insistence on Cologuard even though I'm low risk.
  16. Saw Arby's Sauce and Arby's Horsey Sauce at the grocery store yesterday. Picked up the Arby's Sauce. Only 4g of added sugar per serving. Didn't get the Horsey Sauce - bottle was too big for how seldom I'd use it. But if you haven't dipped Arby's curly fries in a mixture of Arby's Sauce and Horsey Sauce... you haven't had fries. I just don't have fries that much, or roast beef sandwiches.
  17. His first tenure with the Brewers ended with the trade that brought Rick Manning to Milwaukee, but he made a brief return in his final season in 1986. Au contraire mon ami - that was Gorman's second tenure with MKE. He was traded to TEX after the 1977 season and then purchased back in Feb of 1978.
  18. I do. Dude married former Playboy Playmate Lisa Dergan, who was one of my absolute crushes in the 90's. Hated him for that at the time, but that was just love disguised as jealousy. Arguably his biggest accomplishment. Google "Lisa Dergan Playboy" and check Images if you don't remember...
  19. Emergency dental work. Cracked a tooth on what was likely a small piece of bone in a meatball Friday evening. Wasn't sure, waited a while to see if it was just the nerve needing to calm down, but it got worse. Dentist confirmed this morning. Off to the endodontist for a root canal. What's bugging me is their staff. I'm coming in for an emergency root canal, and the staff asks me, "How's your day going?" If I'm coming in for an emergency root canal, how the hell do you think my day is going??
  20. What they do is get people to come into their doctor's office to talk about their condition. Many people either don't talk to their doctor about their conditions or don't even come in to see a doctor at all. People don't talk about conditions for several reasons including refusing to admit something is wrong, feeling embarrassed about it, or not knowing/believing that there are things that can treat their condition effectively. You're seeing a lot of commercials for skin conditions (psoriasis, eczema) because for a long time there weren't any medications that did a good job of treating them - not very effective (60-75% skin clearance vs. 90%+ clearance now), or less than ideal treatment regimens (weekly injections where now there are medications that only need to be injected once every three months, or previously only an injectable medication where now there are oral tablet medications), or nothing to treat it at all (eczema). Patients were told to only expect so much from their mediocre medication and after taking it for a while they tend to normalize the results/regimen and think they are doing "OK" because that's what they were told to expect. Doctors tend to be the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" and often don't bring up new medications because they don't want to take the time to explain them or deal with the hassle of trying to get insurance authorization. The skin condition commercials have that imagery because they show people showing off their skin outside where others can see them, something that they've been embarrassed to do (note that it's always warm and they are wearing bathing suits, tank tops, shorts, etc.). The FDA requires that they mention any side effect that occurs more often than placebo, even if it is rare and not necessarily proven to be caused by that drug (could be sample size error, another medication they are taking, etc). You'd be surprised how many people commit suicide because of embarrassing medical conditions, or just withdraw from socializing. In case you don't remember junior high school and high school, kids can be cruel to other kids who are different. Having a little bit of diarrhea pales in comparison to the effects on their mental health. (I used to work for a company that makes some of these dermatology medications you see on TV. I did the concept testing with patients for one of those commercials.)
  21. It was an impressive season, but IMO was outdone two years later by LaVel Freeman who slashed .395/.467/.627 in 602 plate appearances in that same hitter-friendly El Paso stadium. Since the modern era of the Minor Leagues began in 1963, just one batting qualifier in an affiliated full-season league has hit .400. For that effort, Freeman was given all of three plate appearances in the majors. You know, because they had to give plate appearances to Mike Felder and his .623 career OPS (73 OPS+). Excluding Dudley Field, while it was short-season rookie ball, in 1997 Jake Kraus slashed .390/.487/.610 with 38 BB and 15K(!) in 300 plate appearances split between Ogden and Helena.
  22. Fernando Vina will always be known for stealing my friend's girlfriend. My friend was on the baseball team at UWM and was driving a 1979 Ford Fairmont. Vina was on the Brewers making six figures. Early life lesson on how (most) women go for fame and money.
  23. Plus reuniting with Davante Adams. No need for any time to get on the same page, those two can look at each other and know exactly what the other is thinking. Package Bakh in that trade too if LVR has the cap room.
  24. The three items that I ordered on Monday arrived on Friday on three different trucks - one early afternoon, one late afternoon, one mid-evening. There are two Amazon trucks on the street in front of my place right now.
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