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LouisEly

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Everything posted by LouisEly

  1. LouisEly
    Sort of agree with you FTC. The housing market having a big slowdown is going to help with commodity prices - lumber, oil byproducts, etc. Also labor. The quotes I've been getting for rebuilding my rooftop deck are 50% higher or more than the quotes I got three years ago. A slowdown in housing construction and building projects will help inflation, which is driving the instability in the market. Companies that serve the lower end of the economy will get hit hard. But what we've seen the last few years is the the lower end of the economy doesn't drive the economy. Once summer is over and the trips that people booked months ago are taken, travel and hospitality will get hit in the fall. That reduction in demand should help gas prices. Inflation may increase the labor participation rate. That will go a long way in filling needed jobs, the labor shortage, rising labor costs, and sustaining the economy from going into recession. Oil prices are the big thing. Gas prices drive the cost of almost all tangible goods as they need to be shipped. Seems like there are similarities to 2008 when all other investments were tanking so investors piled their money into oil futures which shot up gas prices.
  2. LouisEly
    That, and in baseball you can't trade up or down. If you don't think a guy will be there with your next pick you have to take him. Maybe a guy you project to go later but before your next pick at $500k below slot is a better overall draft strategy execution than BPA who you know is going to want over slot.
  3. LouisEly
    UW-Madison has a supply chain management program, both MBA and undergrad. Maybe consider an intern from the MBA program?
  4. LouisEly
    That may be part of it, but they were also very familiar with Turang as he was on some type of summer/travel team that the Brewers sponsored/coached. Can't remember the exact relationship, but there was a connection between a team Turang was on and the Brewers.
  5. LouisEly
    So how do you expect someone like Braun, who was the 5th overall pick in the draft, and Fielder, who was the 7th overall pick in the draft, to be available with the 27th overall pick in the draft? How many guys like them are available in any draft? And BTW, Fielder is 5'11".
  6. LouisEly
    It helps if you read a scouting report: At 5-foot-8, Williams might be the smallest player on our Draft rankings, but he's also a favorite gut-feel guy for a lot of scouts. One crosschecker called him the best hitter on the summer showcase circuit, where he raked despite an injury to his right shoulder. The Mississippi State recruit could factor into the first round of the Draft, especially to a club that thinks he can stay at shortstop. Kirby Puckett was 5'8".
  7. LouisEly
    Looking at gas prices and reminding myself that I've had to go into an office for work once since March 16th, 2020.
  8. LouisEly
    If Wisconsinite Connor Prielipp is still there, do they take a chance on him? Does his injury history push him down to the Brewers? Pipeline has him at #24. The Brewers like up-the-middle guys so you can't rule out Zach Neto or Frelick-clone Drew Gilbert. Speaking of clones, there's Ethan Small clone Cooper Hjerpe, who in 84 IP this season has given up 57 hits, walked 17 (1.8/9 IP, and has improved every year), and struck out 135 (14.5/9 IP) against Pac-12 competition. If I'm handicapping it, I'm ranking them in order as Campbell, Hjerpe, Gilbert, then Neto with Prielipp as my "if he's still available". If I have a "don't be surprised by" guy, it would be Hjerpe's teammate Jacob Melton.
  9. LouisEly
    MLB Pipeline currently has Campbell at #34. From their scouting profile: Hitters just don't seem to see the ball well against Campbell, who has a 6-foot-7 frame and deceptive mechanics with an unusual approach angle. His fastball sits around 91 mph and touches 96, and it features high spin rates and running action that generate a lot of harmless contact. He has a pair of solid secondary pitches that he'll use against both left-handers and right-handers: an upper-70s changeup with even more horizonal movement than his heater and a mid-70s curveball that creates a lot of empty swings and groundouts. Not seeing the ball well... deceptive mechanics... high spin rates... a lot of harmless contact... solid changeup... sounds a lot like the Brewers type of pitching prospect. On the season in 94 IP Campbell has given up 73 hits, walked 23 (2.2/9 IP) and K'd 133 (12.7/9) for a Power-5 Oklahoma State. I would not at all be upset with him as the pick at #27.
  10. LouisEly
    Given the typical political bickering and budget bumbling and time it takes to get things done, the answer is yes.
  11. LouisEly
    Given the typical political bickering and budget bumbling and time it takes to get things done, the answer is yes.
  12. LouisEly
    One of my best friends works for BB7. If you're interested, send me a PM and I can connect you.
  13. LouisEly
    I have xFinity/Comcast, and if you're an internet customer you can get this little streaming box that has many of the streaming service apps. They include free acceess to Peacock Premium, so I got to watch Wrestlemania for free. I've started watching Nitro in 1996 and have just gotten to the Bash at the Beach where Hogan turned (but I've been skipping through most of the matches, except for ones involving John Tenta and the Disco Inferno).
  14. LouisEly
    Agree with Zurch. I'm not an engineer, but the job I've had the last 15 months consists of responsibilities and skills that I've done in bits and pieces throughout my career but never all at the same time and some of them I hadn't done in ten years. I took a shot at it because I thought the list of people who have market research, sales, CRM data/reports/dashboards, and people management experience is a short list to begin with, much less finding one who wants to live in a non-major-market. What I think put me over is that in a presentation they asked me to describe myself and what I would bring to the team and I showed an image of a Swiss Army Knife; I said that if you need the best Philips screwdriver that's not going to be me, but if you need a Philips screwdriver, flathead screwdriver, paring knife, bottle opener, and tweezers all in one person I'm it. They offered me within 48 hours after the interview and more salary than what the recruiter told me they were looking to pay. Bill Belicheck supposedly says, "Don't tell me what a guy can't do - tell me what he can do." You may not be able to do everything in a job description, but focus on what you can do and show how you have learned new skills.
  15. LouisEly
    Nope. Grill the hot dog (whatever type of hot dog you wish) Put on a hot dog bun Add mustard or Stadium Secret Sauce Add diced raw onions (preferably yellow) Add shredded cheese (if it's not a cheese dog) That's a Wisconsin dog. None of that jalapeno BS.
  16. LouisEly
    Nope. Grill the hot dog (whatever type of hot dog you wish) Put on a hot dog bun Add mustard or Stadium Secret Sauce Add diced raw onions (preferably yellow) Add shredded cheese (if it's not a cheese dog) That's a Wisconsin dog. None of that jalapeno BS.
  17. LouisEly
    State Street Brats will ship brats nationwide. You can order their famous red brats, which sound like they may play nicely off of the BrightLeaf hot dogs.
  18. LouisEly
    Accurate. I often make the joke to my friends, 'We should open a bar'. Then realize, that would come with other stressers. Yep. At my current job there is very, very little chance that I will be robbed, stabbed, or shot. Considering that I've been working from home for the last two years and live on the fourth floor of a non-elevator building (criminals are not going to climb 56 steps to rob someone), unless I slip with a knife in my hand the chances of any of those three happening are pretty much nil.
  19. LouisEly
    Correct. Yokozuna was the easy one, thought the other two would be the hard ones.
  20. LouisEly
    While we're on the Rumble, three past winners of the Rumble are no longer alive. Without looking, name them.
  21. LouisEly
    The first five years of the Rumble weren't that way. My point still stands with what happened yesterday - predictability is the enemy of engagement.
  22. LouisEly
    The Rumble could be the best PPV of the year by far, but they ruined it years ago by guaranteeing the winner a shot at a championship title at Wrestlemania which eliminates all but about 4-5 entrants. There's an old saying in marketing that "predictability is the enemy of engagement", and when you know that 25 of the 30 entrants have no chance that increases the predictability. Can't really do anything about the leaks, that's the media doing their job. If you want to make money, bet on the favorite the morning of the event. I think one of the best ones was in the late 90's when the tide was starting to turn from WCW to WWE and they grabbed a couple of guys who were just released from WCW the week leading up to the Rumble. They didn't even have entrance music for the WCW guys.
  23. LouisEly
    That's because you have a 15-year loan. You're hardly paying any interest at all and extra payments will reduce the principal on a 15-year a lot more than on a 30-year, where you are paying a lot more in interest in the first 15 years. It works on a 30-year, not a 15-year refinance.
  24. LouisEly
    1) HELOC interest is still tax deductible, so long as it's used on something to improve your home. Not sure what you have to provide or document to prove what you are doing with it, but the interest on a $25K HELOC is only ~$90/month so it's not a significant deduction. Deducting it would save you about $250/year on your taxes, but as I demonstrated earlier, when used over the first 10 years of a loan it can eliminate around 70 payments (which in my example is over $120K in payments). I'll give back $250/year in tax deductions for eliminating $120K in payments. 2) With a HELOC, you only have to pay interest during the 10-year draw period. You do not have to pay back the principal until after 10 years. 3) I explained how it works with my real-life example earlier in the thread. If you don't believe it, get a mortgage schedule (Excel can generate one for you) and run it for yourself. I ran it on my mortgage schedule ($400K loan, 3.25% interest with a $25K HELOC at ~4.3% interest) and it eliminated ~70 payments, or over $120K in payments in the first 10 years. 4) It was compared to making extra payments on a mortgage. It's way, way, better than making extra payments on a mortgage.
  25. LouisEly
    You use the HELOC to pay down the principal of your mortgage. First you take out the mortgage, then the HELOC, then use the HELOC to pay down the principal on the mortgage. HELOC's can have either fixed or variable. General rule of thumb - don't use a home equity loan to pay for anything not attached to your home.
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