Anecdotally I'm sure this is true.
Fickell was hired in late November 2022. The 2023 in-state class, which he didn't have much of a shot at anyway, wasn't good. Nate White was ranked #1 and Will McDonald #2 and they got both of them.
The class of 2024 was signed in December of 2023 which means that Fickell likely started recruiting them in 2022 (or earlier) when he was at Cincinnati. That's the main reason why there are few in-state players - they had already built the relationships with out of state kids. From what I've heard, the staff wasn't real high on Sexton, Roy didn't grow up in WI (moved to WI in high school) and was indifferent and they tried to keep him but the history and relationship wasn't there, Corey Smith and Donnie Harbour were indifferent to UW and liked Franklin's "swagger", and they got Jensen (but he left), Rob Booker (medically retired), and Landon Gauthier. You've brought up Leibfried, but he was the #12 player in WI and the #69 OT overall and of the five OL they brought in the lowest ranked one was Cubberly as the #43 OT and he's starting. There just wasn't room for Leibfried with the other five OL they had.
As for 2025, Flanigan and Strebig are from Catholic families and went to Catholic schools and when ND comes calling that's like a dream (plus Flanigan is a legacy at ND). Poteat wasn't coming to UW after they fired his dad, but they got Roeske (Wautoma), Grant Dean (Neenah), Cooper Catalano (Germantown, and already playing as a true FR), Torin Pettaway (Middleton), and Emmett Bork (Oconomomoc), so yes, they are giving kids from Wautoma, Neenah, Germantown, and Oconomowoc chances to earn a starting spot.
As for 2026, they took Wenzel (Appleton). They weren't going to take many OL having taking a combined 10 in the last two classes. Maybe they missed on Meier, maybe he didn't want to go to a situation where there were 10 guys taken in the two classes ahead of him. Walk-ons are kind of going away with scholarship expansion to 105 and a hard roster limit of 105, so maybe that's why they aren't putting as much effort into a walk-on class.