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LouisEly

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Everything posted by LouisEly

  1. YES, YES, & YES!!!! Three sure-fire batting champions-to-be, especially Freeman! When guys are given less than 10 total plate appearances in the majors (7 for Stanicek, 3 for Freeman), it's hard to tell if it was inflation of numbers in the minors or lack of opportunity. The real head-scratcher is that both were first round picks; Stanicek was #11 overall, Freeman #26 overall. But that was back in the day when the thought was that you needed "veterans" in order to win (you know, had to sign Jeffrey Leonard and Greg Brock to get over the hump). Guys who could steal bases such as Mike Felder (even though they had an OBP under .300) were deemed more valuable, and the Brewers had a crowded outfield with Yount, Braggs, Deer, and a young Greg Vaughn. Brad Komminsk was another guy who was the #4 overall pick of the Braves who could never crack the Braves lineup (despite some monster numbers in the minors when he was 19, 20, and 21) when the Brewers traded Dion James for him, but then gave him all of 17 plate appearances to prove himself.
  2. I was thinking about listing Todd Brown - he of the .447 BA in Helena in 1985 - but thought he was too far away from the majors to qualify for "Why aren't they calling him up?" I know Jak (yes, he spelled it without the "e"), he grew up with and is really good friends with my undergrad college roommate. Jak was a dangerous guy to go drinking with, I'll tell you that; I remember pushing my roommate back to Jak's dorm in a shopping cart after a house party. Had a streak of bad luck (was finding his stroke at Beloit when he broke his arm) and bad decisions (got his girlfriend pregnant), and the mental distraction of the latter and being so far away from them got the best of him in Stockton. Career .435 OBP with 90 BB to 59 K. Sometimes it isn't lack of talent that is why guys don't make it.
  3. Steve Stanicek LaVel Freeman Billy Jo Robidoux
  4. I've been watching CNBC for over a decade; almost daily since the pandemic began. I have Jon Najarian's personal cell phone number, and I've been on Mad Money twice. No, it's not to get the hype going. It's to recruit clients. If you watch, they always explain the reasoning (financial and technical analysis) behind their positions. One of the biggest financial mistakes I've ever made was because I missed an analysis by Jim Cramer of the balance sheet of one of my investments which he recommended selling; a year and a half later the company filed bankruptcy. That's not hype.
  5. Because Cramer was a hedge fund manager 20 years ago? Data is much more available and transparent now, and regulations were passed after the late 2000's financial crisis that increased government oversight and eliminated some regulatory gaps of hedge funds. The definition of "hedge fund" and how it got it's name is because they hedge their bets to create less volatility in expected returns compared to other retail funds with high exposure to the market. They make more extensive use of leverage and derivatives, riskier bets, but hedge those bets to reduce volatility. What I linked to was what is being said by others about Citron, not me.
  6. That's fair. You can still get infected or be a carrier, but are much less likely to have serious symptoms. The efficacy data is based on prevention of serious infection/illness.
  7. RIP to former Wisconsin resident Dustin Diamond, a.k.a. "Screetch" from Saved by the Bell. Only 44.
  8. If by "publicly bash" you mean publish opinions based on thorough research on the financial performance, financial stability, competition, and industry, then I guess you can say they "publicly bash" the company they are shorting. Citron Research has one of the best track records of exposing fraud in the corporate sector, and many of the companies that they have recommended shorting were because they were engaging in fraud (including bulletin-board pump-and-dump schemes). Is that "publicly bashing"?
  9. Seems to be more of the opposite around here.
  10. Nothing is likely to happen until there is more certainty around the 2021 cap number. My guess (and it is nothing more than a guess) is that the NFL spreads out the cap hit over several years and make 2021 a soft cap number with gradual financial penalties but no forfeiture of draft picks for going over the cap. If they want to acquire Watt, the likely scenario is that they convert his 2021 salary to a signing bonus and extend him at least two more years with the plan of Zadarius Smith (and Dean Lowry) being a cap casualty prior to the 2022 season. It is unlikely that they can keep all of Rodgers, Bakh, Adams, Clark, Z. Smith, and Watt with a possible drop in the 2022 cap number. A soft cap for 2021 would be a dream scenario for the Packers, given that they had $385M in cash reserves prior to the 2020 season. They could front-load contracts and acquire Watt (and extend him a few years) with just a financial penalty and ease the 2022 cap crunch.
  11. The hedge funds aren't asking others to short the stock as well to drive up their profits; they don't announce anything. They're doing it independently. Their trades may be publicly available information, but they aren't promoting them.
  12. The Rumble would be so much better if the winner got a title shot at the next PPV and not at WM. Because it's WM, it means that it can realistically only be 5 or 6 guys. This year may be the exception, with no/limited fan attendance they may be able to get away with a surprise winner. There's an old marketing saying - "predictability is the enemy of engagement". The Rumble gets a lot of engagement because the entrants and order aren't predictable, but it would be better if the winner wasn't predictable. I think every year for the last several years it's always been whoever was the odds-on favorite in Vegas the morning of the event. The winner eventually leaks out somehow.
  13. How do you know that they didn't take positions before they broadcast their intentions on the internet? How do you know that there wasn't backroom conversation offline before they posted or about when to sell? Because they said so? Because it's on Reddit? They certainly don't have to pool their money for it to be illegal.
  14. Not necessarily. It's not that dissimilar from other pump and dump schemes orchestrated by private parties who buy a bunch of a cheap stock and then use various media channels to try to get others to buy the stock to get it to go up and then sell. The dividing line typically is whether it is an individual entity or multiple entities, and whether it is a coordinated event among multiple entities. It is legal if it is one entity doing it, or multiple entities doing it independently without knowledge of others doing it. Broadcasting the intentions on any type of media is where it gets into a very gray area because it is no longer a single entity or multiple entities doing it independently. It is not known if the people on Reddit bought the stock before or after they announced their intentions; if it was before, then it is probably not legal. "Investment houses" (let's not generically call them "hedge funds" because hedge funds hedge their bets to take bigger risks but also limit their losses) cannot legally coordinate an effort like this with other investment houses; that's where it becomes illegal because that is market manipulation. What's the difference between two investment houses in a coordinated effort (which is illegal) and 200,000 individuals coordinating an effort on Reddit? Both have the same buying power, and both are attempting to manipulate the market for profit. One thing to note, most people who work for investment houses and have access to financial and market information are typically barred from owning individual stocks. A family friend of mine founded and was managing partner of a financial consulting firm that valued stocks and sold that information to investment firms; when he sold the company he said, "Now I can finally become an investor." He couldn't own stocks because of a potential conflict of interest, and that is the case with most people who work at those firms. Individuals who work at those firms are not directly profiting from it; it may affect their bonuses, but it could also cost them their jobs. The other problem is individuals who are buying the stock without access to/knowledge of what is being broadcast on Reddit. If they miss a sell signal from the coordinated effort, then they are the ones left holding the bag. This does not just affect big investment houses; this can also cost individuals (just like every market crash in history). Big losses on one investment lead to selling another... which leads to more losses, and more selling, and that's how crashes start. Also, big investment houses aren't the only ones shorting stocks; individual investors do that too.
  15. I never put anything in a 401k that is pre tax to me it is just a dumb idea to pay the taxes later when you will be on a limited budget. Disagree - take the tax break now when I'm at peak earning years when the tax break will be greater. Plus, if you have an employer that has a decent match (back in the 2000's I worked for a company that matched dollar for dollar up to 10%), it's free money. A tax break of the 401K limit of $19,500 means a lot now, plus my company matched another over $5000 last year. Also, greater accumulation of wealth and compounding of interest now means being on less of a budget later.
  16. That's pretty much where I'm at. There is one other position that I wouldn't be surprised if they draft a guy on day 2 and that is OLB, assuming that Preston Smith is a cap casualty. If he's gone, they have no depth. I'm looking at Cincinnati's Mijay Sanders, if he's still available in round 3. Assuming that Kirksey is also a cap casualty and that Oren Burks is running out of time, an ILB on day 3 would be a good investment. I don't think they bring back Josh Jackson at $2M to sit on the bench if the cap goes down; I think they double up at CB with one in rounds 1-3 and then another in rounds 5-7. Unfortunately, this looks to be a lean year for DL. Barmore is more of a run-stuffer, and you can find those guys later in the draft. Not many 3-4 DL types projected to go in the top three rounds; lots of undersized guys this year.
  17. To quote Mortimer from Trading Places, "SELL!! SELL!!! SELL!!!!"
  18. Yep, Pettine called man coverage with a single-high safety. Confirmed by MLF in his press conference... and he was not happy about it. I don't see how Pettine is back next year after that gaffe.
  19. Micah Hyde worked out pretty well... Josh Jackson, not so much. Can't blame him, he didn't play. No other Iowa DBs drafted since 1990.
  20. These games always come down to a handful of plays. 1) The pre-halftime defensive fail 2) Rodgers trying to force the ball to Adams in the red zone and missing a wide open Lazard They don't give up the TD in #1 and hit Lazard for the TD on #2 and there's an 11-point swing.
  21. Wisconsin pushed it down to the health care organizations. That's why you see the inconsistencies. You have HCO's like Bellin Health in Green Bay that have their act together and have an organized plan, whereas you find assisted living facilities like the one my grandmother is in that haven't vaccinated their elderly patients yet. Most of the HCOs have said that initially they will directly contact eligible patients so that there isn't going to be a free-for-all.
  22. LouisEly

    Pizza

    Totally agree, that's why I get Jack's half cheese/half pepperoni. I like Jack's sauce the best, and then I'll add my own cheese - I get a bag of shredded mixed gourmet cheddar (Roundy's brand, about $2.50 on average, enough to enhance about 4-5 pizzas) and maybe put some veggies on if I have them. If I didn't put my own cheese on them, I probably wouldn't get Jack's. But the gourmet cheddar makes a world of difference, and only costs about an additional $0.50 - $0.75/pizza.
  23. Looks like I am going to be moving in a couple of months, and my 2-year xFinity "promo" discount is up thus so is my bill - total now up to $200. If I sign another contract it will get down to $170 (was $156 before). But they are trying to tell me that if I move to somewhere that they don't service I will have to pay the cancellation fee of $220, which is BS - if they don't service the area, I don't see how they can legally charge the fee. I gave YouTube TV a try and am in the 5-day free trial period. Has all of the channels I currently have that I watch (including NFL, MLB, and NBA networks), but it is... a hassle. The "streamlined" remote is a little too streamlined and missing some features that are quite handy. Perhaps my biggest complaint is that the "fast forward" function isn't really fast-forwarding - it skips 15 seconds ahead at a time. There is no 2x/4x fast forwarding where you can see what is going on, just quicker (I like to fast-forward while watching basketball when they are dribbling the ball up the court or have a whistle/in-bound play, etc., to speed up the game; for baseball, I like to fast-forward between pitches). I also dislike the channel guide - the font is too big and I don't need the mini image of the show and would much rather have a smaller font and no mini-image so I can see more channels on the screen and further ahead in time. I think I'll keep it until I move, then go back to cable after I move since I can cancel YouTube TV anytime.
  24. I've managed friends before - people who I became friends with prior to my promotion/realignments that caused me to become their manager, and people I became friends with after managing them. I always told them that we have two separate and distinct relationships - one personal, one professional - and whatever happens in one relationship shouldn't affect the other relationship. Reinforce with this person that this is strictly professional, not personal, and has no bearing on your personal relationship. Reinforce their skills and what they are good at, and offer to help them find something that is a better fit for their skills and what they do well.
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