LouisEly

Illinois closed bars and restaurant and limited large gatherings on 3/16. Lots of people who could work from home started to on 3/16. I went in to work on 3/16 and the train was at least 70% empty compared to a usual Monday. In essence, it's already been a week. The data that is really needed is: 1) Total # of tests administered 2) Total/% of positive tests 3) % of positive tests that are asymptomatic 4) % of positive tests that are mildly symptomatic, not requiring medical care 5) % of positive tests that are moderately and severely symptomatic, requiring medical care 6) Total # of hospitalizations 7) Total # of deaths The tests also take a couple of hours to confirm, so there is a little lag in the data.

As of yesterday, that's not much fewer than the city of Chicago which was ~490 as of yesterday. Amazing that Chicago only had ~500 when NYC had about 20,000. However, if there's a case in Bayfield, it's everywhere.

That's not going to happen, it can't. Lockdown of people at risk for that long, or loger? Yes. The entire population? No way. Looks like they're going to start treating patients with the Malaria drug Tuesday morning. Yhis is huge, and we'll know a lot very shortly. On CBS this morning they said there is no shortage of tests now, so between everyone staying at home for the next 2-3 weeks and testing anyone showing symptoms, they should know within 2-3 weeks or so who has it and who has been exposed and should continue to isolate, and then let the rest of us go back out and restart the economy. I don't foresee the lockdown lasting more than 3-4 more weeks.

Why do they have to spend a high pick on a TE? They drafted one in the 3rd round last year who missed the first 10 games of the season. Sternberger played 44% of the offensive snaps against Seattle in the playoffs, and caught a TD pass against the 49ers.

I didn't see a general College Basketball thread for this year, but lost in the cancellation of the NCAA tournament was the end of Markus Howard's career at Marquette. Howard finished 21st all time in points scored in NCAA history. Marquette had at least two more games remaining - at least one on the Big East tournament and at least one in the NCAA or NIT tournament. Had those games been played, Howard would easily have passed JJ Redick for 20th all time (only 8 more points than Howard in his career - and Redick played 12 more games than Howard) and possibly Alan Houston for 19th all-time. With a couple of wins in either the Big East tournament or the NCAA or NIT, if Howard had played four more games he could have passed Larry Bird for 16th all-time and possibly Tyler Hansbrough for 15th all time - Howard played 14 fewer games than Hansbrough, and averaged more PPG than Hansbrough did. Doug McDermott is 6th all-time in points, but played 17 more games than Howard did. McDermott averaged 21.7 PPG for his career, Howard 21.6 PPG. Howard was truly a special player, and we were lucky to have been able to watch him play.

Interesting article about the success rate of drafting a WR versus signing one in FA. Their take is that the success rate in the 2nd round of the draft is much higher than in FA, and the success rate in the 3rd round is about the same as in FA. https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/packers-free-agency-2020/2020/3/21/21189368/packers-free-agency-draft-2020-wide-receivers-success-rate-additions-emmanuel-sanders

Ebron did miss the last five games of last season, and historically hasn't been very durable - he's only played in 16 games in two of his six seasons. There is some injury/availability risk with him. Graham played in all 16 games each of the last four seasons.

And they were criticizing wealthy people for leaving NYC and going to a vacation home somewhere. I would have gotten the hell out of there too.

Vaping.

Is that 3-4 million in the US, or globally? The other thing is that almost all of these people are elderly and comorbid to begin with - they don't have a lot of time left anyway. I'll bet the younger ones (under 70) are or were heavy smokers. I'm not diminishing the loss of life either, but my 92-year-old grandmother passed away three weeks ago and she was in very poor health and had been for the last couple of years. In and out of the hospital for the last six months, and about a month or so before she passed was diagnosed with a rare form of skin cancer. My father agreed to give her infusions of I believe Keytruda... at 92 years old??? I'm sorry, but if you're over 80 and have serious comorbidities (like the average person in Italy who has died) you're not going to have some miraculous reversal of health. If you're in a nursing home, you aren't going to recover. You're allocating resources to people who simply are not going to benefit from it; you're keeping people alive for the sake of keeping them alive, just like my grandmother. You have to let go and allocate those resources to people who can benefit from it. But we live is such a litigious society, and the medical profession has learned that if you don't do everything possible or if something goes wrong you get sued. Yes, decisions are going to have to be made on who to treat and who not to treat, and that sucks. But that means family members making decisions for the greater good, not selfish decisions, and not punishing doctors for making decisions for the greater good.

The problem with rural middle America is that there tends to be a higher elderly population in rural America than urban America, at least on a per capita basis. Wisconsin's first two deaths were in Fond du Lac and Ozaukee counties, not Milwaukee or Dane. That being said, population density has an effect on transmission rates. Lower population density means more natural social distancing.

My understanding is that the NBA testing was done because a couple of players tested positive. Same with the XFL - a player on Seattle's team tested positive. As for those experiencing symptoms who haven't gotten tested, did they report it to their doctor or a healthcare system? Do they even have a doctor? I'm pretty sure they have to report it to a doctor and have a healthcare practitioner order the test in order to get one. That's the protocol with my healthcare system. And that is likely why famous people are getting tested - their doctors are ordering them. As for the "drive-through" testing, I'm generally not a fan unless there is an overabundance of testing kits/lab availability because every hypochondriac is going to be in line every day after every time they leave the house, wasting as many if not more tests than the "celebrities"/athletes supposedly are.

Well, the biggest factors are who is tested and who contracts it. As for testing, Italy told those who were mildly symptomatic to not come in and get tested. Their denominator is a fraction of what it should be. Germany may be testing everyone who is symptomatic. Then there's the question of who is contracting it. If the Germans who are contracting it are young and relatively healthy, then the mortality rate will be very low. Italy has a terrible health care system, especially primary care, and a lot of people got cross-contaminated within the healthcare system. Many of those people were already sick/poor health/other comorbidities, thus they were higher risk. If it goes around a nursing home, you have to expect a much higher mortality rate than if it goes around a college campus. Yeah, all true. This is why I wish people would look at context when there is a spike in cases. More positives in and of itself is not a bad thing. It means we're testing more people, finding them and isolating them. People should not use total cases to compare us to Italy. If we're finding more infected because we're getting better and more efficient at testing, that's a good thing. I'm more concerned with the deaths, if they start to spiral out of control then that's much more of a sign of the health care system getting overwhelmed. The real problem is the area between total cases and deaths - serious cases that require hospitalization. Neither mild cases nor deaths take up hospital beds. That's the critical stat that they're not telling us. They should also be using AI to understand the common characteristics of those who have died or have serious cases in order to proactively identify who is at serious risk. I'd be shocked if the #1 common characteristic isn't smoking.

Marcedes Lewis back on a one-year deal. Reduces the pressure to draft a TE.

Hotels and cruise ships offering rooms to non-infections disease patients to free up hospital beds. Necessity is the mother of invention.

Well, the biggest factors are who is tested and who contracts it. As for testing, Italy told those who were mildly symptomatic to not come in and get tested. Their denominator is a fraction of what it should be. Germany may be testing everyone who is symptomatic. Then there's the question of who is contracting it. If the Germans who are contracting it are young and relatively healthy, then the mortality rate will be very low. Italy has a terrible health care system, especially primary care, and a lot of people got cross-contaminated within the healthcare system. Many of those people were already sick/poor health/other comorbidities, thus they were higher risk. If it goes around a nursing home, you have to expect a much higher mortality rate than if it goes around a college campus.

The line at the Wendy's drive through in my neighborhood is like 40 cars deep. Might be the only ones left open. I just checked the places that I frequent here in Chicago, and most of them are closed. One BBQ place is open for take out until they have sold their food inventory, then they are closing. Lettuce's restaurants are open for delivery/takeout, but not really what I'm looking for - I'm looking for a burger that is a step or two up from Wendy's, but those places are closed. Fortunately the place around the corner, Frontier, is still open (for now) for takeout and they have a really good burger and other meat dishes.

It depends what the source of the nightmares are. I have not been hearing about a shortage of hospital beds in the US; if that is not true, please correct me. What I have been hearing is a shortage of supplies (testing, preventative, treatment). That is much more attributable to the inventory policies put in place, which are a temporary situation that can be easily changed. As someone else said several days ago, the implementation of AI and analytics to minimize inventory holding costs is the cause. Manufacturing also functions off of AI and analytics to reduce manufacturing and inventory holding costs. Changing/overriding the manufacturing and inventory algorithms will rectify the shortages sooner rather than later.

I'm thinking of the Chinese and Thai restaurants around the corner from me that I get takeout from. And for your scenario, that's only four people. Compared to most occupations, that's a small number. You're a lot less likely to get COVID-19 from a take-out restaurant than you are from a grocery store, which has hundreds if not thousands of people coming through it on a daily basis.

It's a fallacy and a bias to think that a restaurant chef is more likely to have COVID-19 than you do. If anything, they are less likely as they are not traveling for work or coming into contact with lots of different people at work. For most chefs, they are grabbing the food out of storage themselves, preparing it themselves, putting it on a plate or in a container, and then placing it on a counter for someone else to pick up and give to you. They rarely hand the food directly off to a server, and like others have said, the cooking process will kill most of the viruses. That occupation is among the lowest in terms of the number of other people they come into contact with while working, and sanitary conditions in a commercial kitchen are far, far higher than just about everybody's home or work.

Sort of. It helps the business owner, but doesn't help the staff who make most of their income off of tips. Many restaurants who get 90+% of their sales from sit-down customers are going to close. The cost of staying open isn't worth the little take-out business they will get. Take out habits have already been established, and if they weren't already thought of as a take-out place they probably won't be now.

Exactly. Instead of sending everyone $1000, bump this up to $1000/week. These are the people who need it.

How about just increasing unemployment benefits? When I've collected unemployment benefits in the past, it was a fraction of my income. Increase the maximum payout. Then those who need it will get it.

From an article in Medscape: The average age of the deceased in Italy is over 80 years old. Based on the analysis of medical records, the first 100 deceased patients had an average of 2.5 concurrent diseases. Those who had mild symptoms were recommended to stay at home, but were not systemically tested, which kept the denominator low. My healthcare system sent an email saying that they will not test you if you are asymptomatic. I think this is prudent, as every hypochondriac would be in line every other day and the people who need to get tested wouldn't have tests available.

I've been working from home on Fridays for most of the last 15 years. For most of that time, I either traveled for work a lot or I had a long commute. I think the ideal is one or two days a week working from home, with one of those days being Friday. Edit: just got email notification that I am working from home until April 6th. Considering it costs me ~$17 to take the train to work, I'll plug that $68/week savings into a gym membership (worked out at the gym at work, great facility with cheap membership fee) and getting more takeout to help support local restaurants.