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LouisEly

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Everything posted by LouisEly

  1. LouisEly
    Go look at Brauns career numbers against Bailey and then edit your post. Go look at Thames and edit your post.
  2. LouisEly
    With RISP he has a .790 OPS this season, compared to a non-RISP of .825. Not as good, but not scuffling.
  3. LouisEly
    Dumbfounded that Thames is on the bench and both Braun and Aguilar are in the lineup. Chalk another to the Counsell head-scratcher list. He's really been out-thinking (or under-thinking) himself lately.
  4. LouisEly
    Looks like lots of bad decisions made that night - admitting underage people into a bar, overserving customers to the point of dangerous intoxication, choosing to drink to the point of dangerous intoxication and compromised decision-making, and taking advantage of intoxicated people/possible rape. In addition to Cephus, the Double U bar is going to have a lot of questions to answer themselves.
  5. LouisEly
    Zack Brown back on the mound!
  6. LouisEly
    Run differential/pythagoreanW/L is a very flawed stat. Does not take into account pulling starters when ahead/behind big, position players pitching, etc. - it assumes that the team is putting it's best players on the field at all times, and that's not even remotely the case. A team could have four really great starters but if they have a horrible 5th starter or bad replacement for a guy who goes on the DL temporarily and get crushed those games it will show a poor run differential.
  7. LouisEly
    Or we could use data. Pitch count: 1-25: .818 OPS-A; 26-50: .662; 51-75: .673; 76-100: .703; 100+: .929 (n=20 PAs, one HR) Innings 1-3: .730 OPS-A; innings 4-6: .669; innings 7-9: .865 1st PA: .785; 2nd PA: .585; 3rd PA: .736 So that data suggests that he is good through 100 pitches or 6 innings or three times through the lineup, which is all the Brewers need. Also, in interleague play this year: 3.51 ERA, 1.130 WHIP, .734 OPS-A - and interleague this year is against the NL Central. Shields has been a good - maybe not great, but good - starting pitcher through 6 IP, 100 pitches, and against the NL Central.
  8. LouisEly
    Starting on Tuesday, the Cubs play on 23 consecutive days including an 11 day, 4 city road trip (ATL, PHI, MIL, WAS). They're not running away with it.
  9. LouisEly
    He has a low walk rate, but he also has a low K rate (16.75% this year, 12.86% for his minor league career). A little less speed than Broxton, but less strikeouts, so perhaps he has a chance to displace Broxton next year as the 5th OF/AAA-to-majors roster shuttle.
  10. LouisEly
    Organizational scoreboard: http://www.milb.com/scoreboard/index.jsp?sid=milb&org=158&ymd=20180819 Aaron Ashby with a very nice outing for the T-Rats. Discuss.
  11. LouisEly
    While overall Stearns has done a very good job, he has to take some of the blame as well. He seems to still be in "nugget mining mode" with the acquisitions of Lyles, Hernandez, and Thompson when (arguably) they'd be better served with Barnes (yes, he's better than Lyles and right now - not long term, but right now - is better than Burnes), another LHRP (QT-C, Ramirez) to call up for the appropriate series/matchups, and another starter (so Peralta can work on what he needs to in the minors). He didn't get a catcher. He didn't get a SP. Ramos and Fiers would have cost very little, and that's on Stearns, not Counsell. Counsell has to play what he has in the dugout. I still think that if Stearns had packaged Ortiz, Medeiros, and Carmona together they could have gotten a very good SP - not deGrom or Syndergaard, but a very good SP who could have helped keep them in games.
  12. LouisEly
    The Brewers may not have that true #1/"ace", but they have a lot of good starting pitching with multiple years of control left. Anderson has three years of control left, Nelson has 2 years of control left, Davies has 3 years of control left, Guerra has 3 years of control left, then you have Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Houser, Brown, Suter. None of them will fetch a king's ransom, but they could fetch a few good prospects because of years of control left and reasonable salaries. Free agent starting pitching is very expensive. Yes, Anderson isn't pitching as well as he did last year, but he's #38 in the NL in ERA among those with at least 80 IP this year - that's a #3, and that has value. Same with Guerra (#32) and Chacin (#29). They could part with two of Anderson/Chacin/Guerra and get four good (not top 50 or maybe even 100, but 75-250) prospects to add to the system and still not have a dropoff in the rotation (assuming Nelson and Davies come back healthy, which may or may not happen). Burnes and Woodruff, like many rookies, are struggling with their first go-around - few rookie pitchers come up and light the majors on fire. Look how long it took Foltynewicz to develop. They're still good prospects despite what the first 25-50 innings look like. Peralta needs more work, but can dominate on any given night. Houser is wearing down after his first full season since 2015, but this year was about building arm strength back. Brown has looked very good in AA. Very few teams have that quantity of major-league ready young starting pitching. I think the future is brighter than most.
  13. LouisEly
    Organizational scoreboard: http://www.milb.com/scoreboard/index.jsp?sid=milb&org=158&ymd=20180818 Carlos Rodriguez makes his stateside debut. Discuss.
  14. LouisEly
    Except that the Cubs were not on his no-trade list, so the Rangers didn't have to ask him, and Hamels said earlier this year that he didn't have any specific objections going to a contender: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/05/al-west-notes-hamels-wood-ohtani-mccann-chapman.html
  15. LouisEly
    The second game of the Cubs mini-series bugs me more than yesterday. You're playing the team you need to beat the most, you had a starter go seven innings the day before with an off day the day before that and a day off the next day. You can empty the bullpen this game perhaps more than any other game on the schedule (except for the day before the All-Star break), and when your starter struggles through three... and the pitcher spot comes up in the fourth with two men on base... you stick with the pitcher for the at-bat and he gives up a couple more runs the next inning. Now down 7-2, game out of reach, when Hader hasn't pitched in four days. That to me is the inexcusable game.
  16. LouisEly
    Anyone who goes to a DIII school is going to have a tremendous learning curve going to a NFL offense. Many D1 wideouts have a tremendous learning curve because they played in spread/hurry-up offenses where they didn't have to read coverages, they just looked to the sideline and ran whatever route was on the sign. The NFL is a whole different animal... they have to read coverages and learn how to adjust their routes and anticipate what the QB is reading. Usually takes a couple of years to do that.
  17. LouisEly
    Why would Hamels not have wanted to go to a team 1.5 games out of first place and leading the wild card? He'd rather stay in Texas and pitch for a last place team? (And I am sipping something good - Kona Brewing Company's Wailua Wheat. Brewed with tropical passionfruit. Highly recommend.)
  18. LouisEly
    Looks like he was injured his junior year as he only played 13 games (and didn't do well in those) and didn't play summer ball after that season. Big senior year, but fairly low walk rate and didn't do much prior to his senior year.
  19. LouisEly
    What tempers my enthusiasm is that most of those guys are 19/20. Are they really talented, or are they just beating up on 16/17 year olds?
  20. LouisEly
    Eric was the 16th overall pick in 1988 by the Dolphins. John was the 16th overall pick in 1987 by the Dolphins. Eric's career lasted three seasons and 42 games; John's career lasted three seasons and 31 games. Eric's uncle, Mike Pyle, started 120 games for the Bears in the 1960's.
  21. LouisEly
    I would think this is fairly common in other organizations, particularly in AAA where the difference in pay between that and the next level is enormous (min ~$500K vs. $80K if they have ML experience, maybe less if they don't). Guys who feel like they should get a chance are going to be pissed, especially this late in the year. That being said, we've seen this movie before in the Brewers system particularly since Stearns took over. Not just these guys this year, but given Wren's departure you think that he had to be unhappy and perhaps that came to a head. And then you go back to Cravy, Scahill, the non-callup of Jungmann, and I think one other guy had an issue last year. I have absolutely ZERO proof of this, but there's a fair amount of smoke to suggest that communicating where players stand and what they need to do to get an opportunity is not the strength of the Brewers right now. It's not like the Brewers have a tough staff to crack - they've used 26 pitchers this season, and used 29 last season.
  22. LouisEly
    Did Ned Yost make it through waivers?
  23. LouisEly
    We need Freddy Perata today, not Wily Peralta.
  24. LouisEly
    Everything I've read has said PTBNL or cash, and I'm guessing the "cash" part of it was a worse-case scenario of him not returning until late in the season if at all due to his injury status. It could very well have been cash IF he didn't return until after a certain date (if at all) and the Phillies miss the playoffs. Could be a different story now that he's back in mid-August, and if the Phillies make the playoffs (and how deep they go).
  25. LouisEly
    Davies also hasn't pitched in the majors in over two months - he could be put on the 60-day DL.
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