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LouisEly

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Everything posted by LouisEly

  1. LouisEly
    I respect your player value calculations, but Houser + Supak is IMO too much for a rental. Unless someone is elite (i.e. Machado), I don't trade more than one SP prospect for a rental. I even struggle with giving up one SP prospect for a rental. That being said, I've wanted Cabrera for a while and am a big fan of acquiring him. Their choice of Houser/Supak plus Villar is where I start, maybe I add Segovia if they balk. Maybe I'll throw in a 2nd SP prospect if they include a lower-level prospect who doesn't need to be protected for a couple of years.
  2. LouisEly
    Santana's OBP with CS is now .436 (with a .500 SLG). I think we can bring him back to the majors. The good Marcos Diplan showed up today. Interesting that Nick Ramirez started another game; I think I'd rather see Perrin return as a starter, but I'm not in charge. Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff, Houser, Ortiz, Z. Brown, Medeiros, Diplan, Supak... we have an unprecedented number of starting pitching prospects in this organization right now. There should be no hand-wringing over trading one or two of them for the right piece that is under control for a couple of seasons to shore up SS, C, or 2B, as there will be plenty left over.
  3. LouisEly
    That's a pretty good comp, and I wouldn't be that thrilled about it for a reliever rental... because the Brewers don't need relievers. But for one of the better SS in the game, I'd part with Stokes + Ramirez. Eh... maybe more like Stokes + Lopez.
  4. LouisEly
    What's done is done. Can't delete them if they've been re-tweeted. The question is whether he's truly changed and matured over the last seven years. Based on his relationship with his teammates, particularly teammates of color, it seems like he has. The human brain isn't fully developed until about age 25. Lots of maturation happens between the age of 17 and 24.
  5. LouisEly
    From what I've read the Cubs have an almost historically bad minor league system. If they can land de Grom we should be able to land the whole Astros team The Cubs could offer all of their top 10 prospects plus Happ and take the Bonilla contract off of the Mets' hands and they still couldn't get de Grom.
  6. LouisEly
    Kremer is striking out 13/9 and overall his numbers are pretty impressive for the Cal League. Bannon is more than a step above Orf - while Bannon is also playing in said Cal League which is very hitter-friendly, Orf never slugged anywhere near Bannon's .591 in the Pioneer League (also a hitter-friendly league, but Orf's Pioneer League SLG was .413). Orf hit five home runs in his four-year college career; Bannon hit 15 his junior year alone. Brian Dozier was an 8th round pick just like Bannon; I'm not comparing Bannon to Dozier (yet), but Dozier is a closer comp to Bannon than Orf. There aren't really comps in the Brewers system for these guys - I'm struggling to think of a Brewers minor league SP who had as high of a K rate as Kremer, even at a lower level. Peralta did last year, but it was at a higher level (AA). Hader did in Rookie ball, but as a reliever - his K rate came down as a starter. Burnes, Ortiz, Woodruff, Brown, Medeiros... none of those guys did, even at a low level. I'm not terribly sold on Diaz, he's benefiting from playing in the Cal and Texas Leagues too. But he's a different player than Phillips - Phillips is a true CF with a plus-plus arm who strikes out a lot, Diaz is a corner OF with a better hit tool.
  7. LouisEly
    Does anyone own a ventless dryer? If so, how satisfied are you with it and how does drying time compare to a vented dryer? I understand that it's nice that you no longer have to worry about lint building up and a potential fire risk in the vent (along with better insulation and one fewer way for water and pests to get into the house), but there's a limit as to how long I'll tolerate a long drying time. Have a rather small laundry closet that can't be expanded without major renovations (if it can be expanded at all) and the ventless dryers are the only ones I can find in the smaller size.
  8. LouisEly
    Monte Harrison leads the Southern League with 159 Ks (40% K rate); next highest is Troy Stokes at 119 (29%). Only 32 BB for Harrison, making for a 4.84 K/BB rate. Oof. Gatewood now leading the Southern League in HRs (Ray 3rd, Stokes 5th), but the 108:26 K:BB (30% K rate) - while not nearly as bad as Harrison - dampens the enthusiasm. Ray at 27% K's. Erceg has a .974 OPS over his last 24 games. Dude is finding his stroke. For reference, he's only struck out 55 times on the year (on 30 BB, 15% K rate). Conor Harber has only walked three in his last 18 innings vs. 12 K and 3 ER (1.50 ERA). Hopefully he's finding his location. He's been better as a starter than a reliever.
  9. LouisEly
    Medeiros is eight months younger than Ortiz, pitching at the same level, and at the least is not pitching worse. Higher BB/9 than Ortiz, but lower H/9 and lower OPS-A (as both a starter and a reliever). Both picked in the same draft - Medeiros at #12, Ortiz at #30. I don't see any reason why Medeiros should be ranked significantly lower than Ortiz, if lower than him at all. I think biggest jump will be Zack Brown.
  10. LouisEly
    Leading the Wild Card race and only 2 games out of first is no reason to sell. Zero. If they Brewers tank and miss the playoffs, you can trade those guys in the offseason. They'll have pretty much the same value as they do now.
  11. LouisEly
    Cubs have no days off from Aug 20 through Sept 12th with 13 of those 23 on the road including 11 in a row over four cities - ATL, PHI, MIL, WAS.
  12. LouisEly
    If the Cubs starters start pitching to their FIPs or have another injury they're in trouble. Who are they going to call up, Jen-Ho Tseng? Alec Mills? Duane Underpants Jr.? Luke Farrell? They have no prospects to trade, so if they have another starter go down they will have to take on a bad contract to get a halfway decent pitcher. Cubs play 11 in a row on the road at the end of August/beginning of September spanning four cities - ATL, PHI, MIL, WAS. And MIL doesn't give them an afternoon game in the last game of that series - 7:10PM start, then have to fly to WAS . (Karma is a you-know-what.) Their schedule ain't no cakewalk the rest of the way either.
  13. LouisEly
    I wonder what Cubs fans were saying two weeks ago when they got swept in four games at Cincinnati?
  14. LouisEly
    Insert "Perez has incriminating pictures of Counsell" joke.
  15. LouisEly
    These could very well be strategic leaks by the Orioles trying to get teams to up their offer. Not too unlike the rumors of the Brewers offering Darvish $100M plus. If you can't beat your rivals, get them to overpay.
  16. LouisEly
    Next year they hopefully get a healthy Nelson and Davies back. Between Nelson, Anderson, Chacin, Davies, Guerra, Suter, Woodruff, Burnes, Houser, and Peralta (plus Z. Brown and Ortiz) they will have plenty of SP depth to be able to make some trades to fill any holes or upgrade. As for this year, if they can move some fringe Rule 5 guys for rentals I'm fine with that. The extra revenue from hosting a playoff series will go a long ways to funding future payroll. But I wouldn't move any core pieces (i.e. Hiura, Burnes, Peralta). Maybe this belongs in the Machado thread, but I'm wondering what the economic impact would be of adding him. 33 home games left... let's say that attendance boosts by 10% by adding him. An extra 3,000 people per game, 33 games... ballpark it at 100K more attendance. Say the average fan spends $50 on ticket, parking, concessions, souvenirs - that's an extra $5M in revenue. Say the Brewers host the Wild Card game - 45K fans who spend an average of $110 on ticket/parking/concessions/souvenirs - that's another $5M Say they win the Wild Card and host two games in the divisional series - likely another $5M/game, or $10M total. Ballparking that out, if the Brewers make a big splash for Machado and make it to the Divisional round that could be an additional $20M in revenue for the team; minus his remaining salary, nets out to around $13M or so in additional revenue. Not worth Burnes or Peralta, but it could go a long way towards adding an additional player net year.
  17. LouisEly
    Barker has a devastating changeup. The low walk totals suggest he can command his pitches fairly well. Unfortunately he got a late start in pro ball. Not sure what to make of Conor Harber - high walk rate, but .600 OPS-A and this year better as a starter than a reliever (.552 OPS-A as a starter, .655 OPS-A as a reliever, similar number of PAs for each). Abnormally low BABIP as a starter, and lower K rate as a starter.
  18. LouisEly
    Jordan Hicks has publicly said he's ok with it and views it as calling him out on what he needs to learn: http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24084264/jordan-hicks-st-louis-cardinals-downplays-locker-room-tension-bud-norris'
  19. LouisEly
    If you're done with a .800 OPS 3B (which is top 10 in MLB among players w/at least 200 PAs), you're going to be very disappointed with baseball. I recommend you try soccer. Or badminton.
  20. LouisEly
    That's about what I have on him too. If I were DS I'd tell the Rays they can have their choice of Supak/Ponce/D. Williams plus their choice of Stokes/Derby/Gatewood/Perrin.
  21. LouisEly
    With the caveat that I have no idea if they seriously considered him as part of a trade with the Indians or if there even were any trade discussions with the Indians, but you can add Jason Kipnis to the "discussed potential acquisitions that we're glad didn't happen" list. .664 OPS with an over $13M salary and over $14M due next year plus a $2.5M buyout for 2020.
  22. LouisEly
    My only concern is that more and more guys with a good bat are being rushed to the majors and stuck in corner OF to hide their defensive deficiencies, and the glut of corner OFs (except for the very elite) is going to make it hard to trade OFs. (On top of that, it makes them lest costly to acquire.) Do Phillips, Ray, Grisham, etc., have a good enough bat to play corner OF? They have a ways to go to demonstrate that. Ray is on a power tear - .603 SLG over his last 20 games - but only .310 OBP over those last 20 games. There are questions about Ray being able to stick in CF; if he can't... the hit tool needs to get better. And if other teams don't value OF range/speed... then they have less perceived value to other teams. Maybe they can be traded, maybe not. The key is going to be continuing to hit on pitchers in rounds 3-5 and 10-13. The Webb/Burnes/Brown draft could be the most impactful in the history of the org, the trades of some of those guys (Thornburg, Wagner) have been critical to the rebuild, and hitting on a few later round guys (Woodruff, Yamamoto, Banda) have provided valuable depth and trade chips.
  23. LouisEly
    Wilkerson. I would have thought DFA Orf, send Woodruff down, add Nick Ramirez to the 40 and call him up, Phillips as the 26th man. Ramirez would have a lot of value in a DH - can pitch and pinch hit/not need to be pinch hit for. But he pitched last night .
  24. LouisEly
    Thames and Guerra to DL, activate Suter and call up Orf, Wilkerson the 26th person. They must really have soured on Phillips if Perez and Orf are the backup OFs. That being said, I think Perez graded out as their best OF last year - he's a better OF than many think.
  25. LouisEly
    OK, now it just started dripping every 10 seconds or so, but the drops are mostly clear. It's not raining. I think the post about condensation may be accurate - hot, humid air is getting up there somehow. If it's condensation... what the heck do I do about it? I'd think that the hot humid air must be coming from outside (mid-90's outside), not inside.
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