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LouisEly

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Everything posted by LouisEly

  1. LouisEly
    Well, Arcia allows Villar to be benched more often...
  2. LouisEly
    Wren because of his performance this year (.425 OBP and .858 OPS) and being one of the few players in the org who can play CF. (The alternatives are Broxton and resigning Nieuwenhuis; does either of those sound better? Neither Brinson nor Phillips is ready yet.) Santana's .921 OPS in AAA says he doesn't have anything left to prove there. Gennett is questionable, but is a left-handed bat on a RH-heavy team. The point others were making is that Arcia hasn't had that production at AAA to necessarily earn it. And it has nothing to do with "feelings"; it's about the message it sends to the team and organization.
  3. LouisEly
    Probably why they want him working with Coles, but your point is well made.
  4. LouisEly
    I understand the Brewers perspective and have no issue with the move. If there is a bad precedent, and not a terrible one by any means but not a good one either, it is the impact on Hernan Perez. Perez worked really hard to improve his conditioning/strength/diet, has done everything asked of him (played six different positions including RF where he had never played before), and now may not have a position for him next year. He's not perfect by any stretch - he still needs to learn to lay off the low outside pitches - but if there is a person who has earned anything on this team it is Perez. He can play RF for now, but what about next year if/when Santana is back? Wren has earned his shot as well. Next year if you have Braun in LF, Wren in CF, and Santana in RF - with Villar at 3B, Arcia at SS, Gennett at 2B - Perez is the odd man out unless Carter is not back or Santana has elbow surgery (a distinct possibility). He can be a super-sub, but I think that regular playing time this year has helped with his production. Not knowing if you'll be in the lineup on any given day isn't the easiest thing for a young ballplayer. Not the worst problem to have by any stretch, but it doesn't set a good example either and doesn't help with motivation. (And before people say he's not good, he's having a better season than Neil Walker, Brett Lawrie, Chase Utley, Joe Panik, Starlin Castro, Josh Harrison, Kolten Wong, Jed Lowrie, Chase Headley, Matt Duffy, and is on par with Jose Ramirez, Javier Baez, Kang, Todd Frazier, Maikel Franco, and Adrian Beltre and not far behind Rougned Odor.)
  5. LouisEly
    There is strategy. The higher salary guys and injured guys you put through right away - Garza, Braun - reducing the chance that they will be claimed. You hope that a need develops (injury to starter on contender) that will inflate demand later, and 3-4 weeks of less salary makes a difference. For someone such as Garza, it's ~$2M less at the end of August than the beginning. If a starter gets injured and that team has no SP depth in the upper minors (or innings limits on top prospect), they won't have many options. Do you claim/trade for Ian Kennedy who is owed ~$64M, or James Shields who has 2/$44M left (Chicago may or may not offer the cash that SD sent them), or Garza who will likely be 2/$17.5M? Suddenly Garza doesn't look so bad. The lower salary guys who you are open to trading you wait. See what happens in the market, and if you sense a need developing you put him out there. Low salary guys are going to be claimed; you have to wait for the demand to increase though to increase the chance that a team will offer a good trade if you threaten to pull him back.
  6. LouisEly
    I think what we learned this year is that what is valued is great relievers/closers and not necessarily good relievers. What teams want is lights-out material for the 7th, 8th, and 9th. Good relievers like Torres aren't needed, but great relievers are.
  7. LouisEly
    I've said before that the best thing that Jungmann can do is to gather as much film as he can on Arrieta and copy it. What Arrieta did is exactly what you said - keep it simple. Arrieta has a bit of a cross-fire delivery but not nearly as exaggerated and complicated as Jungmann. I'm not saying Bradley has elevated himself to top prospect status. What makes me mad is that he is doing this 1) mostly as a starter, not a reliever like he was here, and b) in the same league, facing 95% of the same opponents. It's not like he's in a new league where nobody has seen him before, and it's not like he's doing this facing batters only once per game.
  8. LouisEly
    I was just looking at the Biloxi stats and saw that Jed Bradley was listed as having a 3.93 ERA. I did not recall that being the case with Biloxi, so when I clicked on his MILB.com profile I just about puked. Since he was traded: 13 games, 8 starts, 51 IP, 51 H, 23 BB, 52 K, 0 HR, 1.45 WHIP, 2.03 GO/AO, 2.82 ERA You have GOT to be kidding me. Yes, walks are high as is WHIP, but he (still) appears to be getting a lot of ground balls to get out of innings, and he is still in the same league, mostly same opponents, just a different team. (It's not great defense - he's allowed way more unearned runs on his new team than his old - 30% are unearned vs 5.5% with Biloxi.) With all of the failed draft picks, and the number of pitchers finding success elsewhere, there is starting to be more and more evidence that it may not be talent identification but talent development, and I am really questioning if the Brewers have the right instructors in the organization.
  9. LouisEly
    Please see the links in my post: http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?p=999798#p999798 I haven't been able to find anything more current than those links. Maybe one of the folks here who have some connections to some of the higher-ups in baseball (Mass Haas, splitterpfj, etc.) can reach out to one of them to get clarification on the PTBNL rules?
  10. LouisEly
    Folks, keep in mind that Justin Upton signed for 6/$132M this past off-season. Yes, he is younger than Braun but has been nowhere near as productive (.347 OBP, .815 OPS career for Upton vs. .368 OBP/.910 career OPS for Braun). Over 10 seasons Upton has generated ~25 WAR according to B-R, or about 2.5/year. Braun has accumulated ~43 WAR over the same 10 seasons, or 4.3/year. I don't even need to go into the comparison for this year (Braun 3.3 WAR, Upton 0.4 WAR). (WAR is as much of an accumulation stat as a performance stat, so Braun's missed playing time with injuries factors into WAR.) The market has established that the market rate for lesser players in free agency is 6/$132M. You are not going to get anywhere near 4/$80M for a player of Braun's caliber. Braun is a bargain.
  11. LouisEly
    Every one of those ten, with the possible exception of #10 and #9, has a long ways to go before they will ever be a major league ballplayer, and #10 and #9 profile as reserves. I'm not going to worry about this until it actually happens. Half of the players on that list I am pretty sure will never make the majors or won't until Braun is in the last year of his deal.
  12. LouisEly
    I think that describes most of us - heartbroken and happy. We know how much the Brewers meant to JJ in giving him plenty of chances to succeed; JJ wouldn't be where he is without the Brewers believing in him. I just hope that JJ keeps on trucking and that leaving MIL doesn't negatively affect him professionally or personally.
  13. LouisEly
    With Boyer, Torres, and Nieuwenhuis, their salaries are so low that by this point in the season claiming them only means a couple hundred thousand added on to the payroll. If they want them they will claim them and not let them pass then trade for them.
  14. LouisEly
    Braves are only committed to <$60M for next season at this point including Kemp. Braun's salary and commitment (4/$80M) would be nothing that would restrict them financially. To have a chance to get an impact bat such as Braun without having to give up prospects would be too good of an opportunity for ATL to pass up. I highly doubt Braun gets past ATL. The Reds only are committed to $66.5M at this point for 2017 with only one year left on Phillips' deal. I doubt they would pass on Braun either. Very slim chance Braun makes it past both ATL and CIN. Even if Braun's contract is an inhibitor (which I really don't think it is), they could claim Braun, eat some of his contract, and flip him for a haul of prospects, improving the talent level of the organization.
  15. LouisEly
    Before we get too deep into this, since MLB.com has a top 30 for each team and we tend to reference that list when discussing prospects, and since we have an influx of prospects with the trade, would it make sense for us to expand from top 25 to top 30? Also, I seem to recall that once a player hit 27 he was no longer eligible for the old Power 50. Do we want to keep that rule (would affect Marinez)?
  16. LouisEly
    I think you know my answer. Braun is top-25 in all of baseball in OPS. You won't be able to get that in free agency for 4/$80M, and those guys rarely become available anyway.
  17. LouisEly
    This is a bit dated (2009) but it says that "they cannot have spent time in the major leagues between the day the trade is announced and the day it is completed": http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/06/player-to-be-named-later.html This says "the player named later can't have played in the same league as the team he's being traded to": http://assets.espn.go.com/mlb/s/transanctionsprimer.html I don't see anything about not being on a 40-man roster. What I understand is that the player can't have previously played in the same league and can't be called up to the majors between the time the deal is made and the PTBNL is announced. This says "player not on 40-man roster" as an example of a type of PTBNL, but not a rule: http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Player_to_be_named_later
  18. LouisEly
    News-based websites, or any websites, that think we want videos to automatically load and start playing. We may not always be in a place where we want sound to start coming through our computers or phones.
  19. LouisEly
    Another guy besides Palumbo who is not on any top prospect list but might be flying under the radar is Jeffrey Springs. A 30th round pick out of Applacian State last year, he has recently been moved into the starting rotation at High Desert after posting a 1.16 ERA in 31 innings with 11(!) hits and 40 Ks at low-A, and has a career 10.8 K/9 so far. He's getting knocked around at High Desert in a small sample, but that happens to a lot of pitchers there. He's been moving through the system quickly though, two levels each year. Might be their Mike Fiers.
  20. LouisEly
    I'm teetering on the edge between liking what they did today and loving what they did today depending on who the PTBNL is in the Lucroy/Jeffress deal. If it's Mendez (unlikely), Matuella, Pedro Payano, or Palumbo I will be pretty happy.
  21. LouisEly
    The Brewers didn't trade any of the top three bullpen arms on the team in terms of K/9.
  22. LouisEly
    Matt Kemp instantly becomes ATL's best OF and it's not even close. Heck, Niewuenhuis was having a better season than anyone who played OF for ATL this year... and is younger than all but two of them. Kemp has a .262 BA and .285 OBP. Ouch.
  23. LouisEly
    I don't get the love for Reddick. He's having a career year; career OPS of .753 and OPB of .317 (for reference, Nieuwenhuis' career #s are .709 and .313 respectively), and he's also missed 153 games over the last four years. I don't see what is so special about that.
  24. LouisEly
    I think what speaks volumes is the guys who didn't make my top 25: -Anyone drafted after the 2nd round in 2016 (Burnes, Webb, McClanahan) plus M. Feleciano (we have two Felicianos BTW), Supak, Neuhaus, Coulter, Tyrone Taylor, Angel Ventura, Orimoloye, plus other guys who are having a surprisingly good season (Harber, Burkhalter, Yamamoto, Ghelfi), Jacob Barnes, Kyle Wren, Michael Reed, Brent Suter The first five out: 30) Chad McLanahan 29) Taylor Williams 28) Jon Perrin 27) Damien Magnifico 26) Yhonathan Barrios The 25: 25) Monte Harrison 24) Jake Gatewood 23) Adrian Houser 22) Devin Williams 21) Nathan Kirby 20) Jacob Nottingham 19) Gilbert Lara 18) Miguel Diaz 17) Wei-Chung Wang 16) Jorge Lopez 15) Kodi Medeiros 14) Cody Ponce 13) Lucas Erceg 12) Freddy Peralta 11) Marcos Diplan 10) Brett Phillips 9) Trent Clark 8) Corey Ray 7) Lewis Brinson 6) Luis Ortiz 5) Phil Bickford 4) Brandon Woodruff 3) Isan Diaz 2) Orlando Arcia 1) Josh Hader Not going to go into detail, but I wanted to highlight a few guys who are having surprisingly good years who did not even make the top 30, specifically David Burkhalter (1.096 WHIP, stats really hurt by his last two starts when he was probably pitching hurt), Jordan Yamamoto (9.5 K/9, leads T-Rats in innings), Conor Harber (12.1 K/9, but he hasn't pitched since 7/3, didn't know he was hurt). Just a few years ago it would have been likely that all of them would have been on the list.
  25. LouisEly
    I don't think Thornburg will get very far before being claimed... like, past Atlanta, much less Cincinnati. The options are a) a team claims a Brewers player, and the Brewers say they will pull the player back unless the other team offers up something in trade, or b) the players pass through waivers, and then can be traded to anyone. I'd put Garza as the first player on waivers tomorrow. Try to get him through right away because if he strings together a few games like he did on Sunday, or if injuries take out a few starters on contenders, he could very well be claimed. You want him through so he can be traded to anyone which will increase whatever return then can get. If it's just one team the Brewers have less leverage.
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