LouisEly

I just figured out what's the problem... The Mets announcers just called their team "gritty". We've been out-"grittied".

Oh now Braddock comes in. Hawkins better be the new setup man come first thing tomorrow morning. Or Estrada, or Mitre, or Dillard, or anyone but Loe.

Looks like the Brewers did a lot of scouting on the UConn program. I'm guessing that they looked at Barnes a lot judging by the number of UConn players drafted. Isn't Nova Southeastern, where their 31st round pick is from, where Fiers went to college?

I believe Dave forgot to put his comment in blue.

lets get younger tomorrow! Earlier today I took a look at the 1997-2006 drafts for pitchers taken at #12 or later in the first round or anywhere in the 2nd round that profile as #1 or #2 starters: College pitchers: Dan Haren, John Lackey, Jered Weaver, Matt Garza, Clay Buchholz, Ian Kennedy, Justin Masterson High School picthers: C.C. Sabathia, Adam Wainwright, Matt Cain, Jon Lester, Chad Billingsley, Gio Gonzalez, Yo Gallardo, Trever Cahill Maybe a little bit better HS group, but that college group is nothing to sneeze at. Other college pitchers taken in that range include Randy Wolf, Jeff Weaver, Noah Lowry, Jeremy Guthrie, Joe Blanton, Scott Baker, Wade LeBlanc, and Joe Saunders. I don't think anyone would argue if either of their first two picks turns out like the first group, and the second group would not be a bad outcome. Good college pitchers have been drafted at #12 or later. Some people seem to think that there's a dozen #1 starters in each draft; there isn't - there's maybe two, three in a good year. To expect them at #12 or #15 isn't that realistic. To get a #2/#3 starter at #12 and #15 is actually above average for an average draft.

They already have two - Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. Particularly Braun, who has a semi-bum shoulder and will very likely get plenty of opportunity to rest his shoulder as a DH. Prince could use a few days of rest as well. So the Brewers need position players for the road interleague games for LF and 1B. I could see Gamel being called up to play 1B when Fielder DHs, but not so much Green.

Brett Austin, C, HSWilliams Jerez, OF, HS Joe Panik, SS, St. John's (I'm really warming up to him - decent pop, LH bat) Brad Miller, SS, Clemson (less power than Panik but also hits lefty and played in a tougher conference) Dante Bichette Jr., 3B/OF, HS Charlie Lowell, LHP, Wichita St. (6'4", 245, 114K in 91 IP... but if the Brewers take another college pitcher half the board will have a poop hemorrhage) Edit: TB took Jake Hager, another SS prospect I forgot about. Connor Barron is another HS SS that I'll add to the list. Edit 2: Well, apparently other GMs think the same way I do about some people.

I think I heard earlier today that Bradley gave up an obscenely low number of HRs in his college career. Don't have the stats to prove it though... Let's hope that Jungmann is gassed after a long season.

Here's to hoping that in addition to three great picks in the first two rounds that the Brewers find the next Thornburg/Lucroy/Grady Sizemore in the 3rd round, the next Hellickson/Gamel in the 4th, the next Brooks Hall/Jake Arrieta in the 5th, the next Andrew Bailey in the 6th (or 16th), the next Michael Brantley in the 7th, the next Corey Hart/Matt Latos in the 11th, the next John Jaha in the 14th, and the next Braddock in the 18th round.

If you look back to the Jack Z threads you'll see that I was worried about Seid replacing Z (even though I do like Seid, but he's running out of time) because the scouting department lost so many quality people over a 3 year period. The second part of this sentence (after the word "because") should not be overlooked. The scouting department was so good that they lost many people to promotions to other organizations. You had people who were promoted, but the people they were reporting to were newly promoted to their positions as well. That type of turnover makes it difficult to maintain success. Melvin hasn't shown any indication that he's about to start selling high on his players to build more than short-term windows of success. I don't think the Brewers have achieved Mark A.'s definition of "success" yet. Thus the reason they made the trades for Grienke and Marcum. Yes, they've gutted the farm system to acquire those two (along with Sabathia), however they now have Type A players whose contracts are up this year or next who at the minimum they will get two high draft picks if they leave or quality prospects if they are traded. If the season ended today, the Brewers would be in the playoffs...

Hopefully this is a sign that Taylor Green's wrist is finally 100%, and what we've seen from him the last two weeks is more of the norm than the exception.

After looking over the latest power 50, I'm kind of changing my feeling towards loading up on higher ceiling HS kids. I am praying we go HS, thats all. Past Brewers 1st/2nd round HS picks: JM Gold, Nick Neugebauer, Dave Krynzel, Mike Jones, Prince Fielder, Josh Murray, Mark Rogers, Yo Gallardo, Jeremy Jeffress, Brent Brewer Past Brewers 1st/2nd round College picks: Ben Sheets, Kade Johnson, Rickie Weeks, TGJ, Ryan Braun Matt LaPorta Maybe it is the recency effect of the success of Lawrie & Odorizzi and the failure of Fredericksen, Cody Adams, and Arnett (so far), but history is littered with plenty of Brewers high school picks who failed. (Let's also not forget about Lintz and Walla, other HS picks not tracking to even get to AA, and Heckathorn and Kentrail Davis, college players who have had some success.) Picking HS is no guarantee of success and neither is college. Yes they hit home runs with Fielder and Gallardo, but they also hit home runs with Sheets, Weeks, and Braun. And other high college draftees include Thornburg, Schafer, Lucroy, Cole Gillespie, and Gamel (JC).

but the best college pitcher taken #12 overall in the last 20 years is probably Joe Saunders? Or this guy, who makes a pretty good argument for not passing over college pitchers at #12. In that same year, a left-hand hitting college shortstop who has averaged a .800 OPS over the last two seasons was picked at #15 and was in the majors two years later. I don't think many would have an issue with that outcome this year at all.

Just to use the #15 pick as an example: Kazmir and Carpenter were HS SP picked at that slot who ultimately became top of the rotation starters. IIRC, the reason Kazmir lasted that long was his (and his agent's) signing demands. IIRC, Kazmir was talked about as the #1 overall but no one was willing to pay his demands until the Mets picked.

I'll take a stab here at a few rounds, knowing quite well that I'm probably completely off-base about everyone other than the two first round picks: 1a (#12) - Matt Barnes, RHP, UCONN 1b (#15) - Tyler Anderson, LHP, Oregon (walks fewer than Alex Meyer) 2nd - Charlie Lowell, LHP, Wichita St. (won 3-way coin flip over Brett Austin, C, HS, and Joe Panik, SS, St. John's) 3rd - Dante Bichette Jr., 3B/OF, HS 4th - Jake Hager, SS, HS 5th - Blake Snell, LHP, HS 6th - Jack Armstrong Jr., RHP, Vanderbilt 7th - Jake Lowery, C, James Madison ... 11th - David Herbek, SS, James Madison ... 18th - Sean Jamieson, SS, Canisius A little college heavy at the top, but I didn't pick them based on signability - I picked them because I though they were better than other HS prospects ranked around the same spot.

I don't think it's too much of a stretch to compare Cron to drafting Fielder in that they are/were both hitting prospects with limited defensive options and skills. If Cron projects to be the next Fielder then you make him the pick if he's available. I don't know that Cron scores a perfect 80 on the power scale like Fielder did, so that coupled with his limited defensive options/skills makes him less valuable. In other words, Cron would have to project to be the next Fielder to really justify the pick and I don't know if he does. One other difference is that back in 2002 Milwaukee had nothing at the major league level and very little in the minor league system, so it was a stronger argument that you take the person who both projects to have the biggest impact regardless of position because they weren't going to be blocked. Now that they have talent at the ML level - and if the talent leaves they will get compensation back in the form of players via trade or draft picks via free agency - I think taking a player with limited defensive options presents more of a risk because there's a greater chance that player may be blocked at the major league level. While it is likely that Fielder leaves, if the market isn't there and he resigns with Milwaukee, then the only value Gamel has is what he can return in a trade as he is out of options next year.

I have a good friend who is in a somewhat successful band that will be playing the Miller Lite Oasis stage at Summerfest. The "pirating" of music has had a much greater effect on artists than you can imagine. While the internet has made it a lot easier to get exposure, the significant drop in sales has a domino effect. First, if you aren't selling as many records/music you have to make up for it by doing a lot more shows. That means a lot more time on the road away from home. There's a cost to promoting the shows in terms of advertising. Also, unless you are U2 or some other band that can charge hundreds of dollars for tickets in a 20,000 seat arena, you don't make that much on shows. The venue needs to estimate how much revenue they can make on a show and that determines how much the band gets paid. For example, if a venue holds 500 people and they sell tickets for $20 each, that's $10,000 in revenue that the venue takes in if they sell out. If they don't, that's less money for everyone. So the band gets a portion of that, and they have to pay crew ("roadies", bus drivers, etc.), cover travel costs (bus/van/trailer rental, lodging, etc.), equipment, etc. Look at how much it costs to rent a bus with a driver for a weekend and you'll see they don't make that much on shows. They have to make up for it by selling merchandise (CDs, DVDs, t-shirts, other stuff) at the shows. Now, obviously the cost of bringing product to market has gone down with the digitizing of music. But there's still a cost, and if you aren't selling anything you aren't making money no matter how little your costs are. And... if revenue from music sales are down, that means the record companies are making less money. If they are making less money, they make up for it by taking a greater cut and less goes to the artists. We all know that radio/music TV is almost exclusively corporate and the record companies are calling the shots on what gets played. Yes, it's been that way for over 20 years. But that's not the artist's fault. So if the artist wants to get that national exposure and "play ball", they have to give up a greater % to the record companies now. So less money goes to the artist. Certainly if you're an up and coming band you need to put in some "sweat equity" and sacrifice some revenue to get exposure and invest in your business. But if people aren't willing to pay $1.29 for a song on-line, they aren't going to pay much for a ticket to see them live. Like RoCo said, the vast majority of illegal downloads aren't unknown bands, so if someone isn't willing to buy a song they aren't going to pay $75 for a ticket to see them live. Yes, Radiohead can give away an album for free. They can also charge $100 for tickets at a several-thousand seat arena. And they made it big long before downloading music became mainstream. The reality is that if an artist wants to make it they have to make music a full time job and music is their only source of revenue. And it's harder to make a living now in music because the dynamics have changed. 10% of artists are getting 90% of a smaller revenue pie. Now, have I ever downloaded music illegally? Yes, I have. But I've also purchased more than my fair share of $12.99 CDs and $7.99 cassettes in the 90's and 80's (often for just one song), and unless there is a rare remix that I can't find on Amazon/iTunes/etc. I purchase all of my music on-line now.

Thought this article was interesting because people on this board have posted about channelsurfing.net, which was one of the websites that was seized: http://openchannel.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/05/27/6732624-us-goes-on-offense-against-digital-piracy While browsing the reader comments, I couldn't help but laugh at this one as I think it is dead-on: "While yes, I would download a car if that were possible, the presence of something on the internet does not make it yours. Where would we be if in the early 70s the internet was where it was today. What if because of it, there were no Led Zeppelin, No Black Sabbath, no Grateful Dead or Eric Clapton, because the record companies couldn't profit from them. You guys who steal music today get what you deserve - Justin Bieber and Rebecca Black. Talentless teenage girls who deserve no respect nor the time to listen."

I'd argue that the biggest reason Gamel has been at AAA is because he is/was a bad defensive 3B. Don't kid yourself and say it is to be groomed as Fielder's replacement - if he was a good defensive 3B he'd stay there and they'd move McGehee or Hart to 1B next year. I'm not saying that Walker is a top 10 or 20 prospect. All I said was that he would be the highest riser in the next Power 50. Considering he is currently #47, I could easily see him moving up to #35 - a gain of +12 - which could easily be the highest riser.

Walker is three months older than Chris Dennis, who is also playing at low-A and ranked #31 on the Power 50. Gamel is soon to turn 26 and in AAA. If Walker advances a level each year that puts him at the same age in AAA as Gamel. Given that BC's 3B are Vucinich and Brownstein, I wouldn't be surprised if Walker gets bumped up at the midway point.

you can't be scared at 15 and draft for signability. It's not so much signability as it is that if a player and his agent knows that the pick is unprotected they know they have the upper hand in negotiations and don't have to budge on their signing demands. It's that the Brewers may end up having to pay a lot more than that player/slot is worth to sign the player, and that takes away money from other HS picks that have college commitments like a Gennett or a Brooks Hall that they might need that money to sign. Thanks for the feedback on Lowery. If he was anything other than a LH-hitting catcher with supposedly good defense/arm (with the possible exception of a LH-hitting SS with good defense) I wouldn't think as much of him. But being a LH-hitting catcher with supposedly good defense/arm I'd be really tempted to pull the trigger on him in the 4th/5th round, possibly 3rd. One other guy I'm intrigued by is Dante Bichette Jr. Colby, do you think he'll be around for the Brewers 2nd round pick or is his commitment to UGA pretty solid and going to make it difficult to sign him? The Brewers could use another 3B prospect as Taylor Green has kind of fizzled out a bit and the only other prospect is Mike Walker. I'd be really happy with two pitchers at #12 and #15, Bichette or a SS prospect in the 2nd round, a CF or SS prospect in the 3rd, and Lowery in the 4th.

Looking at his numbers from 2008-2010 his OPS-A as a starter was .919 - nothing about that suggests he was any good or the Brewers were "ignoring what they had". What they had was a replacement-level pitcher.

If there's a positive it's that DiFelice went 2.1 innings, hopefully giving Brewers brass the confidence that he is ready to be more than just a one-inning guy. The negative - he gave up a grand slam after replacing Fiers. I've got Mike Walker as the biggest riser on the next Power 50.

Fixed!

Not sure what the scouts are saying about this guy but when I read that a guy a) leads the NCAA in slugging %, b) is a catcher, c) bats lefty, and d) the league coaches vote him best defensive catcher and best catcher arm - even if it isn't a major conference - he's someone I put on the radar. Also listed as the conference's second best MLB prospect by colby's Perfect Game. Even if he can't stick at C, the bat may play well at 3B, another position of need in the organization. Maybe not a 2nd or 3rd round pick, but his teammate is another guy I'm intrigued by. 8th in the NCAA in slugging %, named conference's best infield arm by one organization, conference's 5th best MLB prospect, and on the watch list for the Brooks Wallace award - best college shortstop - he's another guy I have on the radar. Being a college senior and given the Brewers organizational need for SS, he might be a guy who could rise quickly through the organization. Again, I don't know what scouts are saying about him, but wondering if he might be someone to target in that 5th-15th round range. Oh, and given that this guy is Canadian and given the Brewers organizational need for SS, I think it's a given that they draft him somewhere.