LouisEly

They'll have Rogers, Rivas, Jeffress, Butler, and maybe Peralta at AAA next year, so I don't think they need to have 8 veterans competing for 5 spots. This is the first time in a long, long time if not ever that they will have multiple legitimate pitching prospects at AAA next year that they can call up if there is injury/ineffectiveness. The reason they had to call on Mike Burns is because they had no pitching prospects in the upper levels of the system. I wouldn't argue with bringing Cappy back at all. If I had to choose between him and Narveson I'd go Narveson. I really think they only need to bring in one starter (a legitimate #2) and can go with Gallardo, #2 starter, Wolf, Narveson, Capuano with Rogers, Rivas, Jeffress, Peralta, and Butler providing the depth in case of injury/ineffectiveness (plus Heckathorn, Scarpetta, Merklinger, Fiers, and Lamontagne at AA if they need a spot start). And I wouldn't be surprised to see Rogers get the #5 spot - they can limit his innings by skipping his turn when they have off days.

I'd have to give the edge to Hart for his overall body of work. I know that you shouldn't consider past performance, but considering the concerns about him during spring training and the contacts issue... Hart gets the slight edge. Fielder is underappreciated; tough righties pitched around him and stymied the rest of the offense - some may be surprised that Fielder led the league in walks this year, even more than POO-holes. I'd go a 3-way tie for 2nd with Fielder, Weeks, and McGehee. Sorry, but Axford is the clear winner for most valuable pitcher. He gave the team confidence in the back end of the bullpen, and regularly went more than an inning to close out games. Not only were there the saves, but he also got the victory in 8 others. For those of you who think it should be Gallardo, match each Brewers starter with their 2nd-half performance (no peeking!): A) 3.70 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 6.6 IP/start B) 3.89 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 5.8 IP/start C) 3.88 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 5.7 IP/start D) 5.03 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 5.6 IP/start E) 5.77 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 5.6 IP/start If you said A = Wolf, B = Narveson, C= Capuano, D = Bush, and E = Gallardo, you are correct! Gallardo finished with almost a 4.00 ERA, and had the worst 2nd half ERA of any starter on the team. The only reason he hasn't been called out for his 2nd half performance is because the Brewers were already out of it when his performance went south. His performance was on par with Bush for the 2nd half of the season, and people want to run Bush out of town. Gallardo just didn't have a great year. People are living off of his first half performance, but haven't been watching the last two months.

With interest rates as low as they are, the break even point on paying a "point" is probably over 10 years. If you plan on staying in the house the rest of your life it might be worth it, but I think you said you have a condo or are condo shopping. They will try to push the point on you because it is more commission for the mortgage officer/broker. Wells Fargo tried to push it on me as well. If you don't plan on being in a house for at least 10 years it isn't worth it. It just buys down your interest by 0.125%, which also makes it look like you are getting a better deal on the rate. Tell them you don't want to pay the point, but look at a 20-year loan instead. On a $300,000 loan, if that reduces the interest rate from 4.75% to 4.375% the monthly amount is only $300 more but it knocks 10 years of payments off the loan. On a $250,000 loan the difference is only $250/month.

Let's also not forget that Jake Peavey supposedly waived his no-trade clause to come to MKE but injured his ankle right before the deal was finalized, nixing the trade.

As a side note on the Sabathia trade, has anyone else noticed that LaPorta now has over 100 more career PAs that Joey Meyer ever was given, and Meyer has a better career OPS than LaPorta so far? Meyer's 1988 is very comparable to LaPorta's 2010, and Meyer was only one year older in 1988 than LaPorta in 2010. Brantley is still young, but his career OBP after 430 PAs is .309. And Bryson just got into AA; his 0.73 GO/AO this year takes some of the shine off of his numbers this year. Kentrail Davis may turn out to be better than any of those guys, making the Sabathia rental practically free. Speaking of the Shouse trade, let's not forget the comp pick they got for letting him go - Kyle Heckathorn.

I look at the big picture. Doug Melvin inherited this ML team and this minor league system and in six years turned it into this and this, and now this and this. Take a real good look at those rosters. Yes, they have regressed a little bit the last two years. Not Melvin's fault that Sheets got hurt and they couldn't get draft picks for his departure. Not Melvin's fault that the screwey FA system meant they got a 2nd instead of a 1st when Sabathia left. Melvin made a significant play for Sabathia, a true #1 ace, but not his fault the Yankees could risk more years on the deal. Not Melvin's fault that a lot of pitchers have MKE included in their no-trade clauses. Not Melvin's fault that a lot of players don't want to come here as FAs. Not Melvin's fault that Rogers got hurt and Jeffress chose to smoke weed; maybe they could have done more due diligence on Jeffress but ultimately Jeffress chose his actions. Let's also remember - Melvin put his foot down and overruled Jack Z and drafted Gallardo. Where would this organization be if Melvin hadn't done that? And speaking of Gallardo, not Melvin's fault that some bozo from the Cubs chose to slide into first base wrecking Gallardo's knee in 2008, possibly costing MKE home field advantage in the playoffs. Yes, Melvin has missed on some trades and FA signings. Every GM has. Because Sabathia turned down Melvin's offer (and because many pitchers have MKE on their no-trade clause list) he had to seek out the Braden Loopers and the Randy Wolfs. But look at the entire body of work. Look at where the organization was in the fall of 2002 and where they are now. I give him a solid "B" grade. A few too many mistakes for an "A", but overall a very good job.

The Angels on paper seem to be a good trading partner. While they aren't necessarily in need of Fielder, they have other needs where the Brewers have surplus: 1) They have a huge hole at 3B. 2) They might have a hole in RF as Abreu should probably be moved to DH at this point. Matsui had a better year at the plate, but Abreu is under contract for next year and if he gets 550 PAs in 2011 will vest for 2012. I don't know that they will bring back Matsui with that commitment to Abreu and since both are 36. 3) Their bullpen was weak and it is unlikely that Shields will be back given his age and what he has done the last two years. 4) They already have over $50M committed to starting pitching next year not including whatever raise Weaver will get in arby, likely at least another $6M or more. Possible trades: 1) McGehee plus Villanueva or Coffey plus a prospect(s) for Ervin Santana? Angels get cheap 3B under control for a few years plus bullpen help for Santana who has two years/$20M plus a team option/$13M or $1M buyout for 2013. If the Angels want so shed payroll Milwaukee may be one of the best bets. 2) One or two of Villanueva/Coffey/Hawkins for Piniero? Angels get bullpen help, shed some payroll. Piniero is not the #2/#3 that MKE needs, but if they can't get a true #2/#3 they might be better with Piniero for one year and see if the market is better in 2012. 3) Hart to the Angels for Santana? Hart is under control, but wouldn't save the Angels any $$. Allows Gamel to move to RF. 4) One or two of Villanueva/Coffey/Hawkins for Kazmir plus cash. As long as the net for the Brewers isn't more than $5M, Kasmir might be worth a gamble for the last guaranteed year on his deal. Only $2.5M to buy him out of 2012. Depending on what the Angels offer, I could easily sell high on Kintzler or McClendon. Axford and Braddock are untouchable.

1) While Hardy may have been better, they still wouldn't be in the playoffs. B) Hardy's trade value wouldn't be any higher, and possibly lower. 3) Hardy has only played in 99 games so far this season. He's missed over 1/3rd of the season. Maybe they would get a Type B free agent comp pick, but would they want to offer him arby with Escobar? Would he be worth risking ~$6M next year? Calling it a "horrible" trade is a bit of an exaggeration.

Great job, and thanks for all the work you put into it. I won't comment on the ML roster, but just looking at the minors: 1) Based on how Lamontagne finished the year as a starter, I would be surprised if they don't let him fail as a starter before moving him back into the pen. I could easily see him moving Wright or Bowman into the pen. Small sample, but 25 H and 30 K in 33 IP at AA with a 3.51 ERA I think is worth giving a shot, given how valuable starting pitching is. 2) If they don't think Dykstra can develop the arm to stick at 3B, I could easily see them having him leapfrog A+ (like Farris leapfrogged AA) and be the starting 2B at Huntsville. Given the logjam at 2B, I think he'll be given every opportunity to stick at 3B though. 3) I wouldn't sell Mike Walker short. His .413 OBP tied with Komatsu for second in the organization behind Dykstra's .416. FWIW, he was a higher draft pick than Hopkins too.

Is Verizon FiOS available? I really like their product. It's a little bit more expensive than some others, but IMO you get what you pay for. For TV, make sure that whatever service you get has the Big 10 Network. Not all do, and not all have it on their base/standard package - for some you have to get the premium package.

All in all, great job, hard to argue too much with any of the slots. I'll cast my vote for the one guy being overlooked - Corey Frerichs. Sure he was a late pick and a little old, however he lost almost all of 2009 to injury. But if you look at what his combined numbers were in 2008 and 2010 between both levels of A-ball: 159 IP, 116 H, 171 K. Walks a little high (75), but had a better BB:IP ratio in 2010 than 2008, >1K/IP and a great H:IP ratio, and he assumed BCs closer role. Not a high prospect, but given the success of McClendon someone I could easily see as having as much potential as those in the 35-50 range.

Apparently they have not been to a UW football game in the last 20 years...

This thread needs to be pinned somewhere... either here or on WHOAH SOLVDD

The are three big factors that statistics just can't quantify - motivation, psychology, and chemistry. And they really do have an impact on the performance of players. Maybe someone is distracted by the birth of a first child, or the health/death of a family member, or financial problems. Maybe some is really motivated by being in a contract year, or trying to prove someone wrong who traded them or released them. Maybe someone finally finds a coach they "click" with or relate with. Maybe there are personalities in the locker room that just don't get along. There are many, many human elements that play a role in performance.

"They got skidmarks in their britches. It’s just the way it is. " Priceless! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif I think they need to be renamed "The St. Louis Skidmarks". First Brandon Phillips, now this. Oh man, who said this was a lost season. This just made my day.

1) Hardy's .722 OPS isn't setting the world on fire either. B) If we had kept Hardy and Escobar in AAA we still wouldn't be competing for a playoff birth. 3) Hardy wouldn't be any more valuable in the trade market now than last offseason. Much ado about nothing. Back on topic to the intent of the poster - yes, if Hardy is non-tendered and Counsell isn't brought back I think he would be a great backup utility IF as he could play SS, 3B or 2B.

One more thing about Austin - no state income tax in Texas. Had I lived there last year (or Tennessee or Florida or Oregon) I would have ~$18,000 more in my pocket. Thinking about that long and hard since CA's state income tax is 9.3% (if you make >$48K/year) and sales tax is 9.75%. Oh, and property in any decent neighborhood is >$300/sq. ft.

Santana is only 27 so it is unlikely that he will have significant decline before the end of the contract. And yes, going to the NL I am assuming a slightly better performance than in the AL. He is more likely to perform like the #2 that the Brewers need than Piniero, who will be 32 next season.

On a related note, does anyone know if there is such a thing as a monitor A/B switch? I.e. you have two sources going into the same laptop (say, a laptop and a desktop) and can toggle between the two sources for what shows up on the screen? Apparently my company is going to give us 24" widescreen monitors to connect to our laptops for home use, and I was considering getting one for my personal desktop but if I can connect both to it that would be ideal.

If Baseball Reference is correct, Tampa has ~$29M coming off the books in Pena, Crawford, and Burrell alone. If they lose Soriano to free agency that's another $7.5M. So they could let Pena, Crawford, and Burrell walk and offer Soriano arby and let him walk and that's ~$36M in payroll coming off the books plus comp pick(s) for Soriano.

Are you suggesting we can get better value for McGehee, are you suggesting that we shouldn't trade McGehee, or are you suggesting that we can get better value ("value" = value of what we give up vs. value of what we get in return) by trading someone else for pitching? Please elaborate.

Angels is an interesting suggestion... real interesting. They need a 3B, Brandon Wood is in serious need of a change of scenery, and they have well over $50M committed to starting pitching next season already plus whatever Weaver gets in arbitration. They should be able to get Piniero from them for McGehee, and if the Brewers include a prospect or two they may be able to get Santana. Santana is due $8M in 2011 and $11.2M in 2012 plus $13M in 2013 w/a $1M buyout, and has had two consecutive seasons that were no better than average. In fact, Santana has only had one really good season as a starter, that being 2008, and if the Angels need to get rid of salary they may be willing to part with him for not much in return because of how much he is still owed. I'd hate to trade McGehee simply because he is one of my favorite Brewers, but his production combined with salary control makes him the second best option to bring pitching back in return.

I've suggested several times that Rogers could be the #5 starter and skipping his turn in the rotation for off-days would keep his innings down. I'm intrigued by the piggy-back idea. Whether it's Jeffress, Braddock, McClendon, or Axford they have several relievers who can go multiple innings.

It wouldn't take much for the hitting to fall back to average and then what do you have? JB, I think part of that problem is the lack of LH/RH balance. With Fielder being the only LH hitter in the lineup, it's too easy to have a good RH starter pitch around Fielder (or bring in a LOOGie late in the game) and stymie the rest of the lineup (see Zambrano, 9/10/10, and Dempster, 9/11/10). I really do think that the one thing that will cause the hitting to fall back to average is to trade Fielder.

The team has soured on FA pitchers, but they should pursue Tim Hudson. He's throwing as hard as he ever has, he's dominant, and he has a positive history with Rick Peterson. Nope, can't do that - he's over 30. Can't bring in any pitchers over 30. While Fielder has the most value, the Brewers are best dealing McGehee and/or Hart. I know I'm going to sound like a broken record here, but they need more LH balance, and Melvin has stated that in the past. I get that Fielder is an impending FA, but I'm not convinced that the Brewers can't get a deal done with him, especially with $35M coming off the books after the season. The best thing would be to move McGehee to one of the low-payroll teams packaged with a prospect or two for pitching. I don't know about Gamel at 3B, but adding him to Fielder in the lineup would be ideal. I do see the point of moving Hart to 1B and Gamel to RF if they trade Fielder. But they would need to make another move to get another LH hitter in the lineup somewhere. Adding pitching is important. Let's not overreact to it by dumping Fielder just because he is their most valuable trading chip. Rogers and Rivas are knocking on the door, and Rogers could very well break camp as their #5 (allowing them to skip a few starts of his to limit his innings increase). Jeffress could easily be moved back into starting. Peralta looked good at AA, and Fiers and Lamontagne showed promise at AA too. They'll have Rivas, Peralta, Fiers, Lamontagne, Scarpetta, Heckathorn, Butler, and Merklinger at AA or AAA next year if they need to call anyone up. The pitching will arrive soon. How about McGehee and Narveson to a low-payroll team for an upgrade over Narveson? Florida need a 3B and Nolasco is entering arbitration... McGehee + Narveson (or a prospect) for Nolasco would seem to make a lot of sense. Gallardo, Wolf, Nolasco, Capuano... Rogers? The other option is utilizing their payroll flexibility to trade for a guy who has one or two years left on a current deal from a team looking to dump payroll. We all saw how little in return Oswalt, Haren, and others commanded because their teams were looking to dump payroll - they may be able to get good pitching for very little in return if they can take on salary. The Angels will have over $50M committed to their starting rotation next year not including whatever arby raise Weaver gets. They might be looking to trade Piniero or even Santana if they can't afford Haren/Santana/Weaver/Piniero/Kazmir. The White Sox might want to move Buehrle, and if he doesn't have a no-trade clause with Milwaukee he could be a trade target. Point being, they just need one or two guys for one or two years until Rogers/Rivas/Peralta/Fiers/Lamontagne/Heckathorn/Scarpetta/Merklinger arrives. Yes, pitching is important, but I'm not convinced they need to mortgage Fielder for whatever they can get.