LouisEly

Great post Monty. I'm wondering if baseball is starting to turn out like basketball the last couple of years where expiring contracts are suddenly valuable to clear salary off the books.

1. Trade whatever you can for some high ceiling pitchers. If it has to be Prince, then it has to be. And what if those high-ceiling pitchers get hurt - then where are you? The differences between SF/TB and most of the rest of the league is that the pitchers they drafted for the most part haven't gotten hurt. Contrast that to Mark Rogers, Mike Jones, and Jeffress (mental injury). The other difference is that SF and TB had years where they had very high draft picks in good draft years. With the exception of 2007 - when the Brewers should have drafted Bumgarner instead of LaPorta - the years the Brewers had high picks the talent level and pitching was very lean. In 2003 only two pitchers picked after Weeks in the first round could be considered as good - Danks and Billingsley. And no one had Billingsley that high. Only one pitcher taken after Fielder in 2002 would be considered as good as him - Cain. Believe it or not, Jered Weaver is the only pitcher taken after Rogers in 2004 that has more potential - but again, it was luck because Rogers got hurt. As for 2005, Ricky Romero is starting to show his promise as the only pitcher as good as Braun. In 2006 the Giants had the luck of drafting at #10 to get Lincecum (and the Rays #3 to get Longoria) where the Brewers got Jeffress; the only pitcher taken after Jeffress in the first or 2nd that has more potential/success is Trevor Cahill in the 2nd round. As for the Rays... it took them 10 years of top 5 drafts to get where they are. Is that what you want?

If you think other teams were offering us lackluster deals now, just wait until the offseason when they know we're going to be even more desperate to move these guys (and they'll only have the player under contract for 1 playoff run vs. 2 if they did the deal now which should hurt what we're offered as well). I think you'll be surprised what happens. Many teams are looking to dump salary and if they can they aren't asking much in return, and the Brewers could easily clear >$40M from their payroll with Suppan and Hall off the books, Hoffman/Davis/Riske all but officially gone, and Bush/Gerut/Counsell/Coffey possibilities. The Brewers can take on salary, but not until next year, thus the wait until the offseason. For example, James Shields and Matt Garza of Tampa will be arby eligible and they may choose to move one or both and go with their younger/cheaper pitching prospects. If Burrell and Pena come off the books they can take on Fielder's salary and upgrade at 1B, not lose much if anything in pitching, and not take on salary. In Florida Ricky Nolasco and Annibal Sanchez are arby eligible. If they want do dump salary they are in need of a 3B and Casey McGehee is cheap and under control for a few years. McGehee plus prospects could go to Florida for one of those two. In Anaheim Abreu is getting long in the tooth and should probably move to DH, thus opening up a spot for Hart. And Morales is a question mark coming back from the broken leg. The Angels have a lot of money invested in pitching next year - Haren, Santana, Weaver is arby-eligible, Piniero, and Kazmir - that's $45M plus whatever raise Weaver gets in arby. Hart woud be a good fit there, possibly Fielder too, but the Angels don't want to give up any of those arms until the season is over (except Kazmir, who is on the DL). Hart might be a good fit for the Padres, but same with Chris Young - he's on the DL now. Some package centering around Hart for Young or Garland would do. But the Pads won't trade Garland in a pennant chase and can't trade Young because he's on the DL. Thus that deal would have to wait for the offseason. And then there's the Mets. They have Francoeur in RF - Nieve would be a good return. And who knows what they will do. The White Sox may think that Quentin is better served as a DH than RF and the rest of their corner OF/DH rotation is Juan Pierre, Mark Kotsay, and Andruw Jones. They may want to move Buehrle's contract (even though 2012 vests if he's traded), but he would be a good #2 to hold them over for two years until the Brewers pitching prospects arrive. These are just some examples of deals that can't be made now but could be made in the offseason that would provide ML or ML-ready pitching. And if Boras finds that the market for Fielder is pretty dry, they may be able to resign him which I would not mind at all. If the trade market for Fielder isn't there, then guess what? The free agent/long-term contract market for him isn't there either.

Finances, as well as the economy, are really bad in Arizona. Coyotes are in bankruptcy court I believe. Arizona is doing whatever they can to shed payroll.

Who has played exactly zero career games at 3B in the Majors, and hasn't been a 3B since rookie ball where he made 12 errors in 42 games. Unless you want to count the 10 games he played at 3B in AA in 2008 where he made 5 errors in those 10 games.

Here was the thing that stood out to me: "Melvin had his staff compile a list of what he considered the "good, quality pitchers" in baseball and found that 24 of them have no-trade clauses that include Milwaukee. Dan Haren, recently traded from the D-backs to the Angels, had such a clause. " The Brewers are fighting an uphill battle to get guys to want to come here. Because of that they have to overpay, and that's how you end up with Suppan, Looper, and Wolf.

So can we quit complaining about Melvin not making any moves now?

Good call on Gamel - would be a good opportunity to try him out at RF or 1B. Gamel, Jeffress, Farris, Green, and Schafer and Anundsen if they are healthy are just about locks. 50/50 on Lawrie - I think he could use some rest. Dark horses - Butler, Kintzler, McClendon, Merklinger, and Periard and Wooten if they are healthy. I'll bet at least one of that group goes.

Some people around here (maybe it's just one who repeatedly states this) think the Brewers could have/should have traded for Edwin Jackson, but the reality is that he's had one good year so far. Despite the no-hitter this year he has an ERA over 5.00 and a WHIP of almost 1.50. He's just not as good as people think he is.

Coming into tonight the Yankees had scored 545 runs and we had given up 556 runs to the likes of the Stros and Pirates among others. And 146 of those runs were given up by Suppan, Davis, Vargas, Hoffman, Villanueva, and Estrada, who are either no longer pitching for them or will not be pitching for them next year. Suppan and Davis were upgraded for Parra and Narveson, and the rest were upgraded for Axford, Braddock, and Loe. That's a pretty big upgrade. Don't underestimate the hole that was dug for themselves in April and May. In June and July they have a .520 winning % which projects to 85 wins with their current roster. Just a couple of moves (Cain over Gomez in CF, one starting pitcher acquired) and improvement by Escobar offensively and defensively and 90 wins next year is very possible. Heck, it's not a stretch to think that Rogers could make the staff as the #5 starter - skipping him in the rotation on off days to keep his innings down - thus being a SP upgrade. Or even have Rivas make the jump from AA, or both - have Rogers start the first half of the season and then move into the pen to cut down on his innings and call up Rivas to take Rogers place in the rotation. They could flip Hart plus a prospect for a starter, have Gamel move into RF or sign a FA RF, and they don't lose much offensively and get the SP they need. Don't forget that getting rid of Suppan, Davis, Vargas, Villanueva, Hoffman, and Estrada is addition by subtraction.

I said "decent" and "under control for a few years".

At the trade deadline the deals are MLB players for prospects. In the offseason it is more MLB players for MLB players. Maybe with it being such a buyers market right now the better deal is for MLB players in the offseason, in which they are more likely to get major league pitching for Hart and Fielder. Think about it - the Brewers might be clearing over $30M in payroll in the offseason; the raw amount for Suppan, Hall, Hoffman, Riske, Davis, and Bush excluding buyouts is over $40M - if they trade Fielder it is over $50M. They may be able to trade Hart or Fielder for pitchers who are under contract (similar to Haren) that have a couple of years left on their deals that are bonafide #2 or even #1 starters. The Brewers just need two starters for two years to bridge them to when the pitching prospects arrive. The principal of Moneyball isn't the value of OBP - it is to find out what it undervalued in the market. With the economy down and teams looking to shed payroll, what might be undervalued in the market is players with big contracts. I'm sure that a significant part of the reasons the return for Oswalt and Haren were so low was because of how much money they had remaining on their contracts. While Fielder will require a big contract extension, generally speaking position players are less risky for big contracts than pitchers are.

More importantly, it creates a hole at 3B for the Marlins. And wouldn't the Marlins like to have a decent ML 3B who is cheap and under control for a few years. Hello Casey McGehee. McGehee has a lot more value to a low-payroll team like the Marlins than to other teams in the league, so perhaps McGehee could be packaged with a prospect or two for some of Florida's pitching.

I think there is a lot higher demand for Roy Oswalt than there is for Corey Hart.

Middle of the season? It's 2/3rds over. I think most players would gladly live out of a suitcase for 2+ months to go to a 1st place team and get a shot at a WS ring. Maybe not Counsell because he already has two. I'm sure Hoffman would do anything to get another crack at the WS, especially with SD. Edmonds and Hoffman to SD would make too much sense. Hell, Edmonds, Hart, and Hoffman to SD and get a pitching haul in return. Speaking of SD... they make an interesting trading partner as they have Chris Young who has a relatively inexpensive (~$8M) team option for 2011. He might be a gamble to see if he's healthy next year; if he's healthy the Brewers get a good starter who can bridge them to 2012 when the pitching prospects start arriving and the Brewers are clearing at least $25-$30M in salary off the books this year so taking on his contract is very feasible. Because it's a team option, if he isn't healthy they don't pick up the option and it costs them very little, or they could make SD liable for the buyout amount but not the salary. I don't know when the deadline is as far as picking up options but Edmonds and Hoffman to SD for Young plus a pitching prospect might be a good gamble to take. EDIT - you can't trade a player on the DL, can you? Crap. Can someone on the DL be a PTBNL?

I thought the post-deadline waivers were where the so called gentlemen's agreement existed amongst MLB GMs. Meaning, guys don't tend to put claims in on players. Ask Alex Rios. To Corbeau's point, if what was offered for Hart was a 28-year-old AAA starter having a career year, or the equivalent of Adam Heether and Luis Cruz, then I'm glad a deal wasn't made. Let's not forget, while Hart is having a career year he also had a .897 OPS in 2007, and the Brewers will be better next year if Cain is the starting CF with Hart in RF instead of Cain in RF and Gomez in CF. I think Melvin is smart enough to have made a deal if a pitcher under 25 with the upside of a #3 starter was really offered. Let's also remember that DeJesus was also available until a couple of days before Hart got hurt, so perhaps other teams were playing the Brewers against the Royals and things didn't really heat up until after DeJesus was hurt. And speaking of the Royals, Jose Guillen is still available as well.

People are thinking a little too inside-the-box here. While Hart or Bush alone might not net a top prospect, I would gladly throw in a mid-level prospect or two along with Bush or Hart to get better prospect. I.e. someone like Rivas, Scarpetta, Lasker, Gindl, Bucci, Komatsu, Butler, Fiers, Dykstra, etc. Other teams value prospects as much as the Brewers do, so if they are getting a prospect in return they might be willing to give up more. And if Gamel is either not putting in the work to become a better defensive 3B or is putting in the work but not capable of being a better 3B then they have to move him to RF. Which means another year in the minors learning to play the OF, which means he won't be in the majors until 2012. With that in mind... ... wouldn't you add Gamel to Hart to get Bumgarner or two top pitching prospects from the Giants? Or to get two top pitching prospects from the Braves? Maybe the Braves think they can make Gamel into a 3B, as they will need one with Jones retiring soon.

No way Bush makes it through waivers. Prorate his salary of $4.2M with only 38% of the season left and it comes to only $1.6M for the rest of the season. The net profit of just making the playoffs from TV revenue, ticket/parking/concession/merchandise of at least one home playoff game is probably 20x that.

Most tend to have shorter careers because they are not good to begin with, not because they break down because of injury.

1. He is statistically by a wide margin the worst defensive 3B that qualifies in all of baseball this year (UZR). I hate to say this, but range is overrated. (*ducks*) It really is. I don't see the point of getting to a ball if you can't make a play on it, or in Gamel's case boot it or throw it away - either way you still have a guy on first. Well, if it is thrown away, you may have a guy on second or even third. I'll take the guy who turns outs into outs. Escobar's range is overrated too. The shortstop is positioned between the LF and CF - if something gets by the SS it goes straight to the LF or CF and unless the batter is really fast and the ball is hit really slow he is usually held to a single. If the SS gets to the ball, but can't make a play or throws it away, you still have a batter on first. Same outcome. That being said, McGehee is very tradeable. Reason being is that the main reason for trading someone is when you have someone else who is just as good or better at the same position. That's Gamel, and Green is finally getting in a groove after the wrist injury - I think in other cases (Brad Nelson) it takes a good year and a half to recover from a wrist injury. Nothing against McGehee - you trade from depth. But Gamel is NOT a better defender - he has 12 errors in 47 games at AAA. McGehee has 10 errors in 90 games. Gamel has a better bat, but at this point is no better defender if not worse. McGehee does make a good bench player. You have two reserve infielders - one who can play the middle infield (SS & 2B) and one who can play the corner infield (3B & 1B). McGehee fits the latter, and it's good to have cheap bench players. If Hart is traded, I wouldn't be surprised if Gamel finds his way to RF. Gamel may have more range, but he makes a lot more errors than McGehee. So at this point - be it starter or bench - I think McGehee will be around for a while.

As far as coming off an arm injury, the TJ surgery was at least 5 years ago. Speaking of which, Tommy John pitched 2000 innings after said surgery, the first ever performed. John Smoltz threw 1000 more innings - 3.5 seasons as a very good closer and 3 seasons as a very good starter after a major arm injury at the age of 33. Point being, the stress on a reliever's arm is not near the stress on a starters, which is why relievers have longer careers on average than starters. Expecting Axford to start declining at the age of 32 may be a bit premature.

Too bad for Sheets; the silver lining is that it increases the market for Bush.

Rumors of Gamel's demise have been greatly exagerated. A well balanced .847 OPS with a .379 OBP. In the odd stat department, Michael Walker has a .413 OBP with only a .243 BA; what's odd is that the BA has come up significantly courtesy of 7 hits in his last four games, but for a while he had an OBP that was roughly .200 greater than his BA. I think his coaches told him, we know you can take walks, start swinging the bat - you'll need to show you have some power too to move up. Rumors of Max Walla's demise may be greatly exaggerated too as he has a 8 game hitting streak and 9 hits in his last 5 games. Unfortunately no home runs in his last 8 games, and only 1 BB to 12 Ks. One step at a time...

Saw both Stubbs and Cattleman's at Von's (Safeway) here in CA yesterday. You can tell by the sugar content that Stubbs is less sweet - 4g of sugar/serving for Stubbs, 10g/serving for Cattleman's, and 16g/serving for SBR's.

Surprise, surprise. With Macha trotting him out there 3 out of every 4 games no wonder. Loe is next.