LouisEly

I wonder if that was the planned reason (qualifying for ROY next year) for starting McGehee and replacing him with Gamel after one AB, and then double-switching him later for Counsell.

We can be critical colby, without being personal. After further review, I will give Cameron a "low B+". I understand his value defensively, however in terms of offense I wouldn't put him in the top 5 in the NL - I think Beltran/Pagan, Kemp, McCutcheon and Victorino had better seasons, and while very similar I'd give a slight edge to McLouth and Fukodome. FWIW, Fangraphs has Nyjer Morgan having more value than Cameron, but I don't necessarily buy that. Edit - I need to change Chris Smith's grade to a C-, as he really tailed off the last week and a half. Also, the "/" between Beltran and Pagan means I thought of them as the same player since one replaced the other; I set the limit at 350 plate appearances, and both actually got 350. I know some think of strikeouts as meaningless, but in order for Cam to go from a B+ to an A for me he needs to get his OBP up to at least .365 with the same SLG.

Let's steer the Bush/Looper debates toward their own threads. The thing with Narveson is that I think he's shown enough in this limited sample at the end of the year where they will have a hard time sneaking him through to AAA without someone claiming him. Another way of looking at it is that if the Brewers didn't include him in their 40-man roster, what would be the odds that someone would select him in the Rule 5 draft? I would say the odds would be very good. Narveson is also out of options, so I think between someone else claiming him and him declining the assignment and electing to become a free agent, the odds of him making it to AAA to become depth are fairly slim. Whatever it is, he's shown a big improvement both in AAA vs last year as well as at the ML level, so I think it is more than just luck that he is having. He's no All-Star, but could be an improvement over Looper and/or Suppan without having to pay big $$ to a free agent or give up prospects in a trade. This is the biggest reason I am in favor of giving him a shot - it won't cost them anything to do so. I also think they will have enough depth at AAA (Butler, Jones, Cody, Capuano, Hand), but more importantly enough talent at AA (Rogers, Anundsen, Rivas, Merklinger, Periard, Bowman) where they could bring up guys from AA for a spot start or two if needed. Rogers and Periard are already on the 40-man and using up their options; in fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Rogers was the first guy they bring up next year and keep him up until he reaches his innings limit. In a perfect world we would all like the Brewers to go out and get two #3-type starters under the age of 30, but the supply and demand for that type is such that it will cost the Brewers a lot in terms of free agent $$ (very low supply) or in terms of prospects in a trade, and I don't think the Brewers have enough resources to be able to acquire two of those. I think they'll acquire one (via trade), but not two.

At this point he can't be worse than Suppan and Looper, so unless the Brewers acquire two starting pitchers better than Narveson (one - likely, two - unlikely) I say give him one of their spots. Let Looper go and save $5M. If you want to rationalize it you can dollar cost average Narveson and Suppan such that each occupies $6.5M of salary next year. I doubt he can maintain what he is doing this year, but if he can give you a 4.50 ERA as their #5 while only being paid $400K, it will make me (and all of us) feel a lot better eating Suppan's contract. They need a better performance than what Suppan gave them but can't spend a lot of money doing so, so I don't see a lot of more economical ways of getting better performance than giving Narveson a shot at league minimum salary.

I think the best possible outcome would be Suppan throwing about three pitches before blowing out his arm, requiring surgery that sidelines him all of next year, and the Brewers collect insurance to offset the money he's owed next year. Then in 2011, out of desperation because of the contracts they are already committed to, Suppan is signed by the Cubs.

Cripes, we're getting hung up on the difference between A's and A+ and B's and B-'s. Close the freakin' thread.

Macha has players he likes and those he doesn't. Sounds a lot like their previous manager. His WHIP for the year is a lousy 1.63. Even Villanueva had a much better WHIP (1.41). Unfortunately JB, WHIP is bit of a flawed stat. I put more weight into OPS-A; McClung WHIP wasn't an accurate picture of his performance because most of the WHIP he had given up (prior to starting) were predominantly walks and singles; prior to starting his OPS-A was in the low .600, and his SLG-A was actually lower than his OBP-A. CV's WHIP were a lot more extra base hits; CV was better than McClung at missing bats, but when he didn't miss bats he got hit hard. When CV's changeup is working (and he's spotting his fastball) he's good, but when he isn't he gives up extra base hits. McClung's stuff (95mph fastball and 75mph curve) allows him to not get hit as hard. WHIP has it's place - it's similar to OBP. But it doesn't tell the whole story. It's a bit like Gamel vs. Kendall - the same OBP, but Gamel hits a lot more home runs and doubles whereas with Kendall it's mostly walks and singles. But the point is about Macha, and I think the playing favorites thing, if true, means he needs to go.

The model franchise has to be the St. Louis Cardinals. They get 2.9 -3.4 million in attendance every year. They do this in one of the smaller markets. I'll agree with the marketing/attendance portion of that statement. I think they are a little overrated though because they benefit from having the best pitching coach in the majors. Looking at their pitching staffs the last few years, I'm hard pressed to come up with one good pitcher that was homegrown. Carpenter, Wainwright, Piniero, Lohse, Franklin - all brought in from outside the organization, almost all having career resurrections under Duncan. Hell, Duncan made Looper look good. Much like the Brewers they haven't been able to develop pitching internally, and I don't see their homegrown position players (other than Pujols) being much better. To that extent I have to give credit to their GM for bringing in pitchers who can flourish under Duncan, but if they didn't have Duncan those pitchers wouldn't have been nearly as successful. Overall I'd say in no particular order the best organizations are Philadelphia, Atlanta, Anaheim, Florida, and Minnesota.

I have Heckathorn starting in Helena (after EST); I think Howell is polished enough to start at low-A but they may want to spend some extra time working on Heckathorn's mechanics thus starting at Helena, but possibly promoted in June when the next draft class comes in. Nice to see that for the first time in a long time they shouldn't have to go outside of the organization to fill out their upper level pitching staff.

Nashville - Butler, Jones, Cody, Capuano, Welch/Dillard/Hand/Wright (pen - Braddock, Baron - LOOGY, Wooten) Huntsville - Rogers, Anundsen, Rivas, Bowman, Periard, Merklinger B.C. - Scarpetta, Peralta, Frederickson, Nieves, Seidel/Watten/Adams/Meadows Wisconsin - Lasker, Odorizzi, Arnett, Bucci, Howell I expect at least two of the above to be included in a trade to net a ML starter.

I don't think this is a bad list by any means but your grade for Cam and Yo are way off, IMO. Fangraphs is merely someone's opinion, as this list is mine. And if K's don't matter for hitters, then they shouldn't matter for pitchers - you can't have that both ways. I stated my argument for Cam - while his SLG and defense is very good, his OBP was below average; I get blasted all the time that OBP is twice as valuable as SLG. For what it's worth, Cam's OBP is less than TGJ's this year. And then there is his $10M salary, which demands a bit more production. I could buy a "B" for his performance, but no higher. We'll have to agree to disagree here. Gallardo hasn't gone as many as 7 innings since August 9th; he hasn't gone more than 7 innings since July 25th, and now he's shut down for the year. His performance in August and September have been awful - an ERA over 5.00 both months. Suppan/Parra/Bush/Looper aren't the only ones who have taxed the bullpen. He's 23rd in OBP-A, and 21st in OPS-A. 30th in the league in quality start %. He had a good year, but not a great year - that to me is the definition of a B. What I didn't want to take a lot of space explaining was that a 3.74 ERA that issues less walks generally goes deeper into games and thus less wear on the bullpen; that is what dropped him from a B to a B-. While what Yo did was what was about what was expected of him, I do not grade based on expectations - I said I graded based on performance with a slight factor of salary involved. Nor do I grade based on age. I could buy a "B" for his performance, but certainly he didn't earn any higher than that. Russ, while Fangraphs has its place in the baseball world, it is merely opinion (see what their value of Nyjer Morgan is compared to Cameron and Braun). Just because someone doesn't take Fangraphs as gospel doesn't make them "way off". Edit: In case it wasn't explicitly stated, much of it was based on their performance relative to others in the NL at the same position. Thus in the case of Hardy, where he had the second worst OPS and 2nd worst OBP of any SS in the NL, that earns him a well-below average grade, thus a D.

If you are absolutely sure about the stability of your employment for the next 2-3 years (in this economy that can't be too many occupations other than health care), then I can buy the $1000 emergency cash fund and put the rest towards debt. I understand the concept - if you put it towards debt that is accruing interest, you are saving the interest in the long run which you can put back into the emergency cash fund at a later date. Generally speaking I endorse the 3-6 month minimum emergency cash fund. I would make sure though that the amount of emergency cash fund plus unemployment equals what you need to survive (rent/mortgage, food, necessary utilities - power/water/gas) for at least three months, unless you have close relatives nearby whom you could live with temporarily in case of a lost job.

But on the inverse, when your PC breaks you probably don't have a tested/regimented backup solution. Except my old PC that just needs a new power supply. I can live with the ol' 3.2e gHz processor for a while until I can get the dual-core box fixed. Or I can just pull the hard drive out and put it into a new box (or have my neighbor who has a computer repair business do it while I'm at work). It's really easy to connect a hard drive to another computer and pull all of the files off of it - I've done it before (only once in the 12 years that I've owned a PC). Still, I ain't puttin' my financial data on a website. No way, no how, no when. I had my identity stolen once, and I'm not taking any chances that someone can hack their data base and find all of my finances looted. I just had one of my credit cards canceled by my credit card company and a new one reissued because a merchant that I did business with had their data base hacked/"compromised".

That's what I was thinking. "Well, we expected this guy to completely suck, but he was actually league average, so he gets an A-!" Not sure where you get that vibe. No one who was "league average" got higher than a C. The only factor other than performance that had any impact was salary, and that was only in the case of Suppan and Looper; had either been on a one year $2M deal they might have gotten a C- as for that money they would be expected to only be a 4th/5th starter at which they were average, but for their salaries more was expected of them. Looper at a one year $5M deal might be worthy of a D+, but for all intensive purposes should get the same grade as Suppan. If that has to do with Lopez, I only graded his performance as a Brewer, which at that point was a .406 OBP - that's an A grade for a leadoff hitter for me. Edit - maybe I should have waited for Weathers; after today's game he's down to a D, approaching D-.

Rickie Weeks worked very hard at becoming a good second baseman and now that he is one he shouldnt be moved. I vividly remember a dropped ball in Game 1 versus the Phillies that ultimately allowed the deciding runs to cross the plate. If Weeks makes that play, a fairly easy play IIRC, they are up 1-0 after game 1 and 2-1 after Game 3. So a "good" 2B - he has a lot to prove to me. I do agree though on the "Lopez is having a career/contract year" side, however that's for a different thread.

If Quicken bought Mint, the odds of Mint staying free are very slim. Expect it to charge a fee really soon (why would they allow something else they own to cannibalize their own software revenue) or be eliminated/rolled into Quicken.com. And I'd rather have it on my computer - all of my account numbers and/or passwords are masked in the program, and I have plenty of firewall/antivirus/passwords to make it pretty darned challenging to hack this puppy. I know the security of my own computer, but I don't know the security of theirs, and if they are holding the financial information of thousands of people then it is a much bigger target for hackers than my little pissant PC.

So I've helped my credit score even more, and earned 3 airline tix with no annual fee. But you're right, now that I've earned the benefits, I will cancel after a year if they won't waive the annual fee again. Exactly - it's worth $50 for 50,000 miles, but not worth the annual fee without the bonus miles. The point I was trying to make though is some people just think about the rewards but don't realize the real cost/benefit. My corporate AMEX charges $75/year and now that I don't travel much for business anymore I'm not spending much more than the $7500/year to break even. In fact, most of AMEX's rewards are actually $0.50/point, so you have to spend $15,000 per year just to break even on most rewards. I use Mint.com I would never, ever trust any website with my personal finance information. I can put in my account numbers in Quicken Deluxe for my credit cards, IRAs, and 401Ks and download those transactions - would never in a million years do that with a website.

I see your point JB about CV vs. SM; while CV had a lower WHIP, SM had a lower ERA as a reliever and that included the last couple of outings when he was either hurt or something was wrong that caused him to get hurt (easy to get injured when you are compensating for something else that doesn't feel right). Prior to being forced into the rotation SM had an ERA less than 3.00 and a great OPS-A - I believe his OPS-A was in the low .600 and had a higher OBP-A than SLG-A, which to me says that of the walks/hits given up they were predominantly walks and singles. I can't find splits as far as their OPS-A strictly as relievers, as I place more value on that than WHIP, but if someone can find that I'd be interested in seeing it. As for peripherals, I understand their implications but I grade more on performance than peripherals. My grade was based more on SM's performance prior to being forced into the rotation, because after that he didn't seem to be the same, and on his performance strictly as a reliever. His performance prior to being forced into the rotation was around a B+ and his performance in the pen after coming back from the rotation (debatable as far as health) was a D-, so I averaged that to a C. Same with CV - my grade was based on his performance as a reliever, and over the course of a season an ERA of 4.85 as a reliever is a D performance.

For those who can manage money, keep track of finances, and pay their balances every month, credit cards = a very good thing. If someone cannot manage their money or pay their balances every month, credit cards = a very bad thing. Personally they have helped me build a fantastic credit score, but I have friends who have gotten five figures in debt with them. They are a double-edged sword. Don't do credit cards for "points" or "rewards" - on average a point is only worth a penny, so you are only getting about 1% back on your purchases. Many are less than 1%. Never get a card with an annual fee, unless you are spending a boatload on it (own your own business) and it has phenomenal rewards. A $50 annual fee cancels out the rewards value of the first $5000 you spend on it. When interest rates were higher the "float" could make you money, but now except for CDs it is almost impossible to get more than 0.5% interest on any bank/savings account, so at best you are making 1.5% on your money. I highly recommend getting personal finance software like Quicken where you can download all of your credit card transactions and balances - that way there are no surprises when the bill comes. You can keep track of your cash balance in your bank/checking accounts and when/how much your paycheck is vs. your credit card balances to make sure you don't overspend. Every January/February you can go to office supply stores (Staples, Office Depot, Office Max) and get free personal finance software and free anti-virus (after rebates) with the purchase of tax software. So for ~$30 after rebates you can get Quicken/MS Money, TurboTax/TaxCut, and one year of an anti-virus software. As for the pay the small balances off first, that is purely psychological. If it makes you feel better by paying off the small balances first so there are less total bills then go for it, but the best financial bet is to put money towards the highest interest rates.

Guthrie will be 31 next season and I would rather trade for someone who is a little bit younger than 30 years old. Yes, but to get someone under 30 will cost a lot. To get something of value you have to give up something of value. The thing with signing guys who are an injury risk is that you can get insurance on their contracts. That way the financial impact if they do get hurt is negligible. So offering 4/$48M to Harden doesn't scare me because they can protect themselves from injury. They can't insure against crappyness. The best trade matchup I see is with the Marlins. They have a need at 3B and the Brewers have a surplus of infielders, including McGehee who will be cheap for three more years which might really appeal to the Marlins. I believe Nolasco is due arby and they might not want to pay him considering they have other replacements. Some package of McGehee plus a couple of A-ball arms would probably have a lot of value to the Marlins. I don't see the Marlins bringing back both Jorge Cantu ($3.5M) and Nick Johnson ($5.5M), so a $400K replacement in McGehee might be appealing.

With only one week left in the season the performances for the year can probably be evaluated now. Prince Fielder - A+, 2nd to Pujols in just about everything, league leader and team record for RBIs, equally effective vs righties as lefties, improved defense too - 4th in NL 1B fielding % Ryan Braun - A, improved OBP by almost .050 over last year, top 10 in NL in OPS, best fielding % of any NL LF Felipe Lopez - A, .406 OBP since acquired Casey McGehee - B+, who would have anticipated this type of season? Fielding % keeps him from an A. Craig Counsell - B, who would have thought he could still have this type of season? Mike Cameron - B-, good - defense, only CF with significantly higher OPS is Kemp; bad - led team in Ks, worst BA of any NL CF, bottom half of NL CFs in OBP Frank Catalanotto - C, improved bench significantly Jody Gerut - C-, starting to produce with regular ABs Corey Hart - D, bottom half of NL RFs in OPS, declined 2nd year in a row - should be improving at age 27 JJ Hardy - D, only NL SS with worse OPS was Renteria, but only three NL SS with better fielding % Mike Rivera - D, may have been better with more consistent playing time Jason Kendall - D-, worst OPS of any NL C with 300 plate appearances, OBP not even in top half Bill Hall - F, no analysis necessary Chris Duffy. Brad Nelson - F, small sample, but failed in their roles and were let go Incomplete - Weeks, Escobar, Gamel, Iribarren, Bourgeois Trevor Hoffman - A, no way is he 41 Todd Coffey - A-, surprise nugget who solidified the set-up role Chris Smith - B, better season than many give him credit for, only Vargas and Hoffman had a lower WHIP Mark DiFelice - B, did well until he got hurt; would like to see him throw more innings Mitch Stetter - B, .616 OPS-A vs. lefties is decent, for a specialist could be better; not bad vs. righties Claudo Vargas - B, maybe he's found his niche in the bullpen Yo Gallardo - B-, wore down, needs to get his walks down Chris Narveson - C, as the sample size gets bigger he seems to be decent Seth McClung - C, did well in the bullpen until he was forced into the rotation, wasn't the same after that David Weathers - D+, starting to show his age; I'd rather take a chance with Axford next year Dave Bush - D+, injury made his numbers worse than he really was Braden Looper/Jeff Suppan - D, could write the same thing about both; perspective - supposedly average ERAs for 4th/5th starters... but still not good. At least they didn't get hurt, but salaries demand more. Carlos Villanueva - D, shows flashes of brilliance, but more flashes of awfulness Mike Burns - D, had a couple of good starts after his callup Manny Parra - D-, a couple of brilliant starts after his recall saved him from an F Jorge Julio/Jesus Colome/RJ Swindle - F, you get released, you get an F Incomplete - Axford, Butler, Dillard, Riske Problem - too many key players with D grades

Cameron to Weeks is such a fall off in defense... i shudder to think how bad our team ERA would be if this happens. Get better pitching, then it won't matter so much. Seriously, how many plays a game is the centerfielder involved in? Would it really make THAT much difference?

The funniest thing about that clip Hawing is that below it says, "© 2003 Chicago Cubs". Yep, I'd say that the Cubs certainly have the copyright on that play! http://images.yuku.com/image/gif/4bd15994833519c190381b639410cf6310ba54f.gif

--Agreed on #1. --Don't really care about #2. I think it will serve as motivation for next year having the players watch that. --Agreed on #3 - I think it should be #2 --McGehee wins ROY (#3) --Axford gets some innings to show whether he could be a potential setup guy should Hoffman not come back and Coffey becomes the closer next year

The free agent market for pitching is pretty weak, so I'm not sure how directly Cameron's salary is tied to better pitchers. It doesn't have to be a free agent - it could be a pitcher who is due a big arby raise who plays for a small-market team that they acquire via a trade, or a guy who already has a significant contract in place. I think Florida makes a great trading partner as they have nothing at 3B and McGehee is expendable (and while I'd like to keep Gamel, if he can bring Josh Johnson in return I might be willing to part with him). I think another question is "Would anyone else feel comfortable with Gerut as our starting RF?" A very fair question, as SF is said to be high on Hart and he may be able to net Sanchez in return. My concern is that the Brewers only have one OF at AAA or AA who is even remotely ready to play in the majors next year even in a bench role and that is Katin, and I think "remotely" is the key word. For me, in order to trade Hart I would need to bring Lopez back and move Weeks to RF. I would be OK with Bourgeois as the backup CF, but not as the backup RF (or starting RF should Gerut get hurt).