LouisEly

I think it's clear that baseball really values guys that can potentially provide 200 IP. For a variety of reasons, bullpen strain, the difficulty in identifying replacement level vs. sub-replacement level pitchers, the ability to bypass the lesser members of bullpen, etc. I'd agree that every one of these factors are marginal in and of themselves, but you combine them all and that's where the benefit lies beyond the numbers. Even if it's just a win or two. Then again, a win or two is pretty valuable. I think there is a lot of truth to this. Looking back at the Kazmir reference, what teams have to project is what are they going to get from ~32/33 starts from each starting spot, a few more for the #1/#2 guys by working the schedule and breaks properly. So for 32/33 starts to get an average of 6.5 innings from your starter you are looking at ~210 innings. Now, a guy like Kazmir may be very good but 4 of 6 years he was under 150IP; if that happens, that means needing at least 60 innings from guys not among your top 5 starters or wearing out your bullpen. If you have good young upper minor league starters it may not hurt you to bring them up to fill those 60+ innings. However if you don't, and other than Josh Butler they have no top starters who have been successful at AA or above yet (lots of Brevard talent moving up, but haven't proven they can handle the jump to AA yet), you end up filling that with your Mike Burns-es, your Seth McClungs, your Carlos Villanueva's, etc. So in that example if Kazmir gives you 150 innings at 3.75 ERA, but you fill the remaining 60 innings with a 6.00 ERA Mike Burns or equivalent, that jumps that starting slot ERA from 3.75 to 4.39 over 210 innings and is now no longer worth the $12M you are paying Kazmir. But a Randy Wolf who can give you a 4.10 ERA at $9M at that slot for 210 innings ends up being a better value than the $12M for a 4.39 ERA that Kazmir/Burns gives you. I think that explains the premium placed on good but non-spectacular durability.

Pop quiz - no cheating! Quick, look at these Huntsville stat lines from last year and tell me who was Mike Jones and who was David Welch (no looking!!): A: 26 years old, 4.03 ERA, 1.411 WHIP, 2.36 BB & 5.03 K/9 innings B: 26 years old, 4.59 ERA, 1.354 WHIP, 2.5 BB & 6.2 K/9 innings While Mike Jones is a nice story, I don't see how people are afraid to lose him but ho-humming Welch being assigned to AA and almost assuredly losing him to another org for depth. Not saying Welch is great, just saying Jones hasn't really shown anything more than him.

Question marks for the bullpen include: Villanueva, Narveson, Axford, McClung (probably going to be non tendered), Braddock, and Capuano. With two spots open in the bullpen now I believe Villanueva will be given a spot in the bullpen with Narveson, Axford, Capuano, and Braddock all getting shots in spring training. I would go with Villanueva and Narveson as the two long guys in the bullpen. I wouldn't go writing Villanueva's name in ink.

As far what Melvin should have done, how far back do you want to go? Ohh I don't know how about not blow assets to acquire Lopez or Linebrink? How about selling high on one of our SS last off season liked I whined about? What about trading for Jackson when TB dumped him for a Corey Hart equivalent? What about the Overbay trade where we took quantity over quality? My opinion of the Sabathia deal is well known and I don't think I need to rehash it for the 50th time but I've always felt that was mistake in the long term. What about buying low on a guy like Kazmir? The team had limited assets and needed to spend them in the best possible way... and while I'll concede a difference of opinion in regards to the Sabathia trade, can we honestly say Melvin has spent his assets at both MLB and MiLB in the best possible way? I respect your opinion; I will however address these one at a time: 1) The assets used to acquire Lopez were A) an OF who, as much as I liked him and his ability to get on base and his very underrated athleticism, defensively is probably limited to LF where he is stuck behind Braun for five years or 1B where he is stuck behind Fielder and even if Fielder were moved offensively he would be below average at 1B and thus as an asset to the Brewers he is basically a PH; and B) an A-ball reliever who hadn't been able to cut it as a starter for his first four years. For that they got a guy who got on base over 40% of the time and kept them in the Wild Card chase. So far neither of what we gave up can be considered an asset yet. B) The assets used to acquire Linebrink so far are a LOOGY, a pitcher who was left off of the Padres 40-man roster, and a pitcher who was added to the 40 but now is facing surgery. So far the only one to play in the majors is the LOOGY, and technically the only asset yet. The other two would have yet to help the major league club if they had been kept. People fell in love with one of them because of a great quote, but this year his ability to miss bats decreased significantly and he got rocked pretty good at AAA. Put yourself on the other side of that coin - what if you were a Padres fan and you traded Linebrink in 2007 and for him the only player you got in return who has contributed in the majors was a LOOGY, one of the two minor leaguers was left off the 40-man, and the other is facing surgery? I don't think the Padres fans are real giddy about that trade either. 3) There was no evidence that A) Escobar was ready to start the season in the majors or that B) Hardy would regress as much as he did, and C) due to salary Escobar was the one they wanted to keep long-term. They thought that with Hardy they might have another shot at the playoffs, and had Hardy, Kendall, Suppan, Looper, Bush and Parra just performed just to recent averages and/or not gotten hurt they probably would have made the playoffs. 4) Jackson/Overbay - no one other than DM knows what was available or offered. We cannot speculate here based on rumors or what-ifs. Everyone knew we wanted to trade Overbay so we cannot have expected much. 5) Sabathia - the biggest asset given up was a guy who could only play LF or 1B and would have been stuck behind Fielder and Braun. None of the other pieces have done anything yet. Sabathia carried the Brewers into the playoffs, and had Weeks not dropped that easy throw they might have beat the Phillies in that series. We'll have to agree to disagree, but LaPorta can be replaced and I'll take that playoff appearance for what we gave up any day of the week and twice on Sunday. You also have to add Kentrail Davis and Max Walla to what we got in return, and Kentrail Davis may be the best prospect involved in that whole deal. 6) Kazmir was due to get real expensive real quick, and only twice has he gone over 150 IP in a season. He may be quality, but durability is a question and $12M/year for a guy who 4 of his 6 seasons hasn't been able to give 150 IP is a big risk. If he can't give 150 IP, that means more starts by guys like Burns, McClung, Villanueva, etc., which negates much of Kazmir's value. 7) No one other than Melvin knows what was available to him for what he was offering. And no one is giving up good young pitching for marginal prospects. So far LaPorta is the only quality prospect we have given up, and for that we got the playoffs. I guess we will have to agree to disagree there.

With DiFelice out for the year it had to mean one or both of Vargas/McClung back. In 41+ total innings last year between the Dodgers and Brewers he had a 1.74 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. If he puts up numbers like that he can take as much time as he wants on the mound. Provided the amount is reasonable, no reason not to give him a chance to repeat those numbers on a one-year deal.

So apparently the killings and kidnappings over it (and other drugs) are not a problem?

Well, you know I had to chime in. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif You might fall over when you read this but other than the usual difference of opinion of ranking of draft picks who have yet to play, I can't really gripe about anyone. A bit surprised to see Richardson at #24 and Scooter Gennett not on the list. A bit surprised too that you let Rogers slip down past Heckathorn based on a few AFL innings when he was tired after his first full season in years. Overall though, other than Richardson, pretty agreeable. Apparently pogokat was the one I disagreed with. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I'll state that we have not seen the last of David Welch. Bucci wasn't the only Brewers pitcher farmhand who impressed at the World Cup. And his splits after the All-Star break were pretty impressive.

I believe that stemming from the Jeremy Jeffress suspension there was a healthy debate about drugs, and I recall someone stating that they saw some documentary that said that 98% of marijuana comes from the midwest or something like that. Those of us who live in southern Texas, Arizona, and California, or those of us who subscribe to Esquire (article about 6 months ago) already know how ridiculous of a statement that is, but if you believe that documentary or haven't read about the drug wars in Mexico that have been spilling over into the border towns and states then I invite you to watch the National Geographic channel this Sunday at 8PM (may be 7PM Central). http://channel.nationalgeographic.com/series/explorer/4092/Overview Really, if you think that drugs aren't a problem or only come from America then you should watch this. Anyone can make a "documentary" show whatever they want you to believe.

CV saved one game while Hoffman was out but blew two others (and a third in the 8th inning the day Hoffman returned). By the time Hoffman was ready Coffey had more saves in April than CV. Kind of wish Melvin would have waited before signing Zaun. KC non-tendered Miguel Olivo. Don't know how good his defense is but his OPS was .782 and he's only 31. The Zaun signing I think means that you can pencil ink Lucroy as being the starting catcher in 2011.

An even better left-handed Ramiro Mendoza who can give you 100 IP out of the bullpen is almost as valuable as a starter. Obviously we would like to see him start, but if a guy like him who can be a dominant middle reliever can give you a 2-inning bridge from your starter to your setup man and allow you to lift your starter after 5 innings or before he can get in trouble in the 6th can be very valuable. Don't see why people are surprised by Axford given what he did at AAA/majors last year.

I was thinking the exact same thing. I thought for a while that maybe there was a chance that UW might somehow be able to get ND in a football bowl game (wouldn't that be something). For a while there was a real chance that UW might get USC in the Rose Bowl - that would be the equivalent of Pigpen's thesis in PCU being complete for me. If it weren't for this silly bowl allocation system it would be very possible for UW to get USC in a bowl somewhere, but UW will have to go play a SEC or Big 12 team somewhere. (Sigh.)

Hughes = very, very good. Bohannon is not nearly as good of a shooter as people think he is. He is hitting 31% of his 3-point shots this year, and hit 36.6% of his 3's last year. 39.3% as a soph was the best he's done (36.4% as a frosh). His field goal % has declined every year, and is under 40% this year and last year - not that good for an upperclassmen. Over the last four years he has missed way too many open 3's for me to classify him as a very good player. He's decent, but nothing special.

If those are the two biggest gripes someone has against a baseball commissioner, then I'd say that he's done a pretty darned good job. Hey, all I'm saying is that it appears that Bud's been the one trying to bring the owners along in virtually every move for the last 10 years. I agree with that whole-heartedly, and I think it might surprise people how much difference there really is amongst the owners and not just about salary cap/revenue sharing. Take 20-25 pct of everyone's TV deal and divide those up. I've been saying that for years, and not just 25% - I think it should be 50%.

Yep, they had top juco big man (6'9"/6'10", I think Juco All-American) committed for next year but he got his scholarship rescinded because of some trouble with the law IIRC. They need to find at least a power forward with that.

You're right - McGehee's .859 OPS last year was pretty awful. Especially considering the .611 OPS that Florida got from Bonifacio and the .682 OPS they got from Wes Helms at 3B last year. Add to that McGehee's $400K salary the next two seasons, and I can see why Florida wouldn't be interested in him at all. What was I thinking.

Buzz needs to find a couple of juco big men for next year real quick. Either that or pray that Maymon grows 3" and Williams gains 30 lbs.

Sounds like they want to move Uggla and thus move Coghlan to 2B, which would open up another OF spot. From what I heard they wanted a true CF as they think Maybin is better suited defensively as a corner OF. So... 2 MLB-ready players = Gomez and McGehee 2 AA prospects = Salome and either Jeffress or Rivas They get Gamel instead of McGehee only if we get John Baker in return. BTW - they want to get rid of salary, so don't have any proposals that include anyone making seven figures for at least two years (i.e. Hart, Bush, Weeks, etc.)

The national media and fans criticize Selig for the All-Star game tie and for not doing enough about steroids. Those critics have no idea what it was like for Selig to be in those positions. They don't know that it was the managers of both teams in the All-Star game telling Selig that they were out of players and begging him to call the game to prevent any injuries to their pitchers; those critical fans and media can say what they want, but they will never know what it was like to be in his shoes at that game at that moment. They can say he looked the other way about steroids during the McGwire/Sosa HR derby in 1999, but those critical fans and media have no idea what it is like to try to negotiate with the players union. Selig knew that another strike would cripple the game if not destroy it completely. Those critical fans and media have no idea how much of a no-win situation Selig has been in on many fronts, and how he has been able to negotiate his way out of those no-win situations to find solutions where no one wins, but no one loses either. Selig isn't perfect. He's made a few mistakes. But I'd like everyone who has gone an entire lifetime in whatever profession or occupation they have without making any mistakes to stand up and raise their hand. (Crickets...) I thought so. I dare say that there is no one who cares about the game of baseball as much as Selig. And I dare say that without Selig not only might there not be baseball in Milwaukee, but if not for him there might not be baseball period. Thank you Bud for everything you've done. May you find a successor that cares as much about the game as you.

That's what I've been saying for a while. The economy is still bad, and despite the gains in the stock market businesses are not going to be scrambling to sign up for luxury suites or advertise on the scoreboard, and unemployment is still over 10%. Even though they drew over 3 million fans, a big part of their revenue comes from luxury boxes and advertising. I think MA is anticipating luxury suites and ad revenue, and possibly attendance, to be down this year and needs to cut costs.

Pujols plays first base, and that isn't stopping him from winning MVP. In fact, from all of the highlight plays I saw from Fielder I'd say he's better defensively than Pujols. That being said, those who will give preference for the Phillies will split their votes between Howard and Utley, which I think will drop Utley. In fact, when you throw in Ibanez, I wonder how much that will dilute the totals for all of the Phillies. Same thing will happen with Fielder and Braun, but Fielder is still so good that he won't drop below #4. 1) Pujols 2) Ramirez 3) Howard 4) Fielder 5) Utley 6) A. Gonzalez 7) Tulowitzki 8) D. Lee 9) Lincecum 10) Braun Too many good hitters for Lincecum to make much of a dent; the recent marijuana issue I think will hurt his voting, regardless of whether it should. I think #1-5 are safe; beyond that a number of guys could end up there - Zimmerman, Kemp, Eithier, Ibanez, Upton, Sandoval all could sneak in there. Wouldn't surprise me to see Hoffman get a number of votes.

After the thugfest that was the All Star game in Vegas a few years back, I really doubt that the NBA will put a franchise there. Yep, and it was a lot more than Pacman Jones. From what I heard Vegas said to the NBA that they will not be invited back anytime soon. Vegas is a city where the workers live on tips, and from what I heard the NBA crowd wasn't exactly into tipping. I was in Vegas shortly after the All Star game that year, and everyone I talked to did not have a lot of positive things to say about their NBA experience that weekend. We'll find out what they are made of this week with games at San Antonio, New Orleans, and Oklahoma City, and then Orlando at home.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4675752 Johnson seeking a deal similar to Grienke - 4 years/$38M. If that is all it takes to get a pitcher of his caliber, then I think DM should be able to find someone with the money he's freeing up. The question is what will it take to get Johnson from the Marlins? Hopefully it is along the lines of what the Twins got for Santana. Remember - with the Marlins it's not all about potential, it's also about affordability. That's why guys like McGehee and Gomez may have more value to them than the Brewers. Apparently the Marlins are asking for a ML-ready CF in some deals. But I don't know if the Brewers have enough upper-level minor league talent to get it done. McGehee+Gomez+Salome+Peralta? I don't know if even that will get it done.

We're talking extension here. The extension will kick in after 2010 when Suppan/Hall are off the books, and this year they will probably clear over $20M off the books by letting Cam, Looper, Hardy, Kendall, and Weathers go, which can get them their two pitchers. Then take Suppan/Hall's $20M and give it to Fielder after next year. They get their two pitchers and get to extend Fielder. No one's getting a huge raise this offseason. Coffey might get a couple million more, but I don't see Bush, Hart, Weeks, or Rivera making significantly more than they did last season. In 2011 some of the minor league talent will start hitting the majors (Lucroy, Braddock, Salome, Green, Cain, Butler, Schafer, Rogers) so they can go with those guys for cheap and spend a bulk of the payroll on Fielder, Braun, Gallardo, the free agent pitcher they sign this offseason, and maybe Weeks. Note - is Gamel's line on the salary page correct? How could he have made $400K, the major league minimum, in 2008?

"Kottaras is a Canadian -- the Brewers' Canadian-led operation scouts that country as well or better than any other organization -- who was drafted in the 20th round on the 2002 draft by San Diego. In 2006, he was listed as the Padres' No. 2 prospect by Baseball America magazine." Of course it's the Padres, who haven't had much minor league talent the last few years, but could be buying low here.

I think they want to keep Gamel, and keep him at 3B as long as possible and try to wait out the defensive shortcomings, simply because he is a good LH bat and they need/want more "balance" in the lineup. If Gamel had even better numbers but hit RH he would definitely be traded by the end of the winter meetings.