LouisEly

I know it'd never happen, but fun to imagine a Milton for Soup swap. No freakin' way. Milton has two more years left on his deal. At this point, I don't know if I'd trade Suppan, Hall, and Hammonds for him. Dude is a cancer that I don't want anywhere near the clubhouse.

The guy earned a September promotion this season and we blew him off. I think it was more of a numbers game - they already had Gamel, McGehee, Escobar, Hardy, Counsell, and Lopez. I just don't know where he would play. Frankly I would rather see Gamel get the ABs at 3B than Heether, and McGehee is in contention for ROY so I'm sure they want to get him his ABs. If he storms the castle like McGehee did this year in spring training I think it will be hard not to keep him, but that is probably more contingent on two of Gamel/McGehee/Lopez not being back, or one of Gamel/McGehee not coming back and Weeks moving to the OF.

With all due respect to the deceased and his family, Angel Villalona is/was a "top prospect" along the lines of Charlie Fermaint and Christian Guerrero. The tools, maybe, but the odds of putting it all together looked to be slim. I know he just turned 19 but I haven't seen very may players who if they haven't put it together by the end of their third minor league season ever do put it together. Pablo Sandoval is the exception more than the rule.

McGehee, Salome, and a couple of A-ball arms to the Marlins for Nolasco and one of their catchers (Baker or Paulino). Lopez declines arby and signs with the Padres or Astros and the Brewers get a sandwich and 2nd round pick for him. Unable to move Hardy for decent value, they keep him as their backup SS (or starting SS) and gamble that they get Type A compensation for him next offseason. Heether pulls a McGehee and claims the other backup IF position with Gamel the starter at 3B. Same starting OF, same bench (Gerut, Cat). Starting 5 is Gallardo, Bush, Nolasco, Parra, Suppan. They talk Hoffman into coming back one more year with the rest of the pen being Coffey, Stetter, DiFelice, Smith, Vargas, and McClung. Butler, Jones, Capuano, Cody are your SP depth at AAA, with an army of potential spot-start candidates at AA (Rogers, Rivas, Anundsen, hopefully Braddock). Gallardo/Parra improvement accounts for a combined 5 wins, Nolasco accounts for 2 wins, whomever replaces Kendall accounts for 2 wins, offensive improvement at SS accounts for 1 win, and giving Gamel the 235 PAs that Hall got this year accounts for 1 win = +11 wins over the 81 wins they finish with this year which gets them to 92 wins in 2010 and the Wild Card. Not ideal, but I think Nolasco is the best they can hope for as far as improving the rotation without giving up Gamel or Escobar.

Another place to look for condos/homes is vrbo.com - I've had success there. Hopefully I'll be there, but my company likes to plan national meetings for the beginning of March, then push them back last minute to the end of March, coupled with the manager's meetings two weeks prior to the national meetings and my annual Tahoe trip at the end of Feb/beginning of March, and I can never seem to get there even though I'm quick flight from LA away. My aunt/uncle live in Tucson so I may stay with them and drive up. My buddies in Phoenix have kids now so staying with them isn't really a desirable option, so I may be in for sharing a place for a couple of nights in Mid-March depending on the meeting schedule.

Forgot about Ramlow - he is another guy who had a good 2008 who missed almost all of 2009. A 6'6" lefty, he should get plenty of opportunity if/when he comes back.

He had the same team that Yost did in the first half of '08 and his team was significantly worse. No Weeks for most of the season, no Gabe Kapler, an infinitely worse JJ Hardy (I will give you a better Prince Fielder), a much worse Manny Parra, no Dave Bush for over two Months, a worse Villanueva (Gallardo for Sheets basically is a wash), and no CC Sabathia (Yost didn't have him long, but he won 11 of his 17 starts with a 1.65 ERA - so take Burns/McClung/CV/Narveson's starts, a total of 16, and replace that with Sabathia). To say that he had the same team Yost did for the first half of '08 is not accurate. And didn't Macha have the Brewers in first place even as late as the end of June? They were 30-20 at the end of May, 42-35 at the end of June, but then the losses of Weeks/Bush and the crappiness of Hardy/Parra/Villanueva caught up to them (when Weeks went down they were 24-14). The manager's job is to manipulate his roster/pitching matchups to best maximize their situational production. He isn't responsible for the injuries to Weeks and Bush or the crappiness of Hardy, Parra, and Villanueva. He is responsible for the overplaying of Kendall and possibly overplaying of Hart early in the season when he was slumping, but playing others (Kendall/Catalanotto/Gerut/etc.) more often would only have given them at most two or three more wins. People are griping about not playing Gamel more often, but frankly McGehee and to an extent Counsell (had a .366 OBP at the end of July) were more productive, so I don't think that playing Gamel more often would have resulted in more wins. Had he played Rivera, someone other than Hart when he was slumping, and Gamel more often I doubt that they would have more than 3 or 4 more wins, so they'd still be out of it. I have a hard time pinning this on Macha. Edit - sorry for going off-topic. Feel free to move this post to the Macha thread.

A while back someone wrote about someone having perhaps the best stat line ever (I think it was a guy in rookie ball who went 4-4 with 3 walks). I would like to nominate Brendan Katin with the best 3TO line ever today - 2-2 with 2 HRs and 2 walks. Nice to see him finish strong with 4 HRs and 3 BB to 2 K in his last four games. Stefan Wilson also with a strong finish who I also think homered 4 times in his last 3 regular season games plus the PH HR in the AA playoff game.

Welch! In his last 10 games he has a 2.85 ERA; only 26 K but fewer hits (49) than innings pitched (53.2) and reasonably low walks (13). Even better is his last four starts - 26 IP, 18 H, 4 ER, 7 BB (only 10 K). K totals are a little concerning, but this finish might get him the #5 spot in Nashville next year. (Don't pee on my parade.) Nice outings by Smith and Axford to keep the Sounds alive in extras.

The keys to the Sexson trade were JDLR and Capuano; the mistake made was that they didn't (or couldn't) hold on to JDLR long enough (or keep him in the minors long enough to develop) as he has been a decent #4 starter the last two years, and Capuano got hurt. He got Bush and Jackson for Overbay; debate their ceilings, but it was an attempt to add starting pitching. Melvin traded Kolb for Capellan; debate his ceiling but it was an attempt to add starting pitching. Melvin signed Victor Santos, who had two average #4/#5 starter seasons. He traded "Devastated" Junior Spivey for Tomah Ohka. He traded Leskanic for Obermuller; in hindsight not a good trade, but an attempt to add starting pitching. He traded Keith freakin' Ginter for Nelson Cruz and Justin Lehr. He traded Leo Estrella and Wayne Franklin for Carlos Villanueva. Because they had nothing resembling catching in the organization he traded Davis for Vargas, Aquino, and Estrada - not a good trade, but he attempted to get starting pitching back in the deal. Sabathia was a rental, but he single-handedly carried the Brewers into the playoffs last year, and had Weeks not botched that play the Brewers could have been up 2-1 in that series needing only to win one of the last two games. To say that Melvin has done nothing to address starting pitching is just not true. The reality is, in order to acquire anything more than a #4 starter you have to give up quality, which means giving up Braun, Fielder, Gallardo, Escobar, or Gamel. In the Sabathia deal the biggest piece given up was a guy who was a RH hitter limited to LF and 1B and stuck behind Braun and Fielder. The other reality is that up until 2005 they had very few prospects to trade, and even if they did they didn't have the payroll to take on quality ML players and thus quality ML player salaries. Until Mark A. bought the team they had to focus on player development. Their draft picks, until 2005, were either boom or bust; it was either a Fielder/Braun/Gallardo/Weeks, or it was a Murray/Jones/Artman/Fermaint/Steitz. Of the 2000 draft, I think only Hart and Krynzel made it past AA. Of the 2001 draft only JJ Hardy and Parra were legit prospects; Nelson and Saenz weren't the same after injuries and Sarfate never panned out. Besides Fielder in 2002, the only other legit prospect was Eveland and he didn't pan out; Crabbe and Dillard are the only other ones from that draft to make it past AA. Of the 2003 draft, besides Weeks, Gwynn, and Stetter the only players to make it past AA are Heether, Corporan, and Drew Anderson; Taubenheim was traded as a part of the Overbay deal. They just haven't had the pieces of the puzzle to be able to trade. The last issue that makes it difficult to acquire players via trade is that many of their top prospects are coming off of injuries - Braddock, Green, Cain, Scarpetta, Rogers, Periard; when that is the case, the injury risk brings down their trade value. They are worth more intrinsically, so the better bet is to keep them and see if they recover to their potential. That doesn't leave a lot else to trade.

He may well be a solid OBP reserve, but that's not a whole lot. His high draft pick status was based on him developing wood bat pop, which never happened. He's no Jason Tyner either. He has 11 HRs and 42 extra base hits on the season despite being hurt. In Huntsville last year, not exactly a hitters paradise, he had 14 HRs and 56 extra base hits and a .858 OPS. Given a full major league season I don't think it would be out of the realm for him to do what Hart has averaged over his career. The point is that the Brewers don't have any home-grown OFs in the upper levels ready to step in now, even in a bench role. Should Cat, Gerut, or Cam not be back they would have to keep Bourgeois in some capacity or go out and get an OF, and I'd rather have Gillespie making the major league minimum and spend the money on pitching then spend the money on an OF. It will be interesting what happens with Lopez. If in fact he is a Type A, will another team actually sign him and give up those picks? If someone does then it would be a good trade. But just because he is labeled a Type A doesn't necessarily mean the Brewers will get those picks. If Lopez accepts arby and they can trade Hart for pitching and move Weeks to RF and keep Cam that would work; but if they can't trade Hat and have to move Weeks to CF and let Cam go then I'd say it was not a good trade.

Lintz is starting to come around - in his last five outings he has 5 BB, 15 K, 11 H, and 4 ER in 12.2 IP. Dykstra hitting over .400 in his last 9 games. Nothing to get real excited about yet, but moving in the right direction.

Namely, the Marlins and the Rays. Marlins - someone proposed a deal for Ricky Nolasco, and that makes a lot of sense. Nolasco's 2008 has been more of the exception than the rule for his career. Uggla is probably due for arby as well creating a hole at 2B and they may need to unload him, and they have a black hole at 3B. The Marlins have a couple of other guys who may be at arby as well in Andrew Miller (already making over $2M in salary being a top 10 pick), Annibal Sanchez, and Josh Johnson. While Johnson is probably out of reach, Nolasco and Miller might be available. Perhaps Melvin can sell high on Casey McGehee, and if they do deal Uggla might be able to package Iribarren. McGehee, Iribarren, and Peralta for Nolasco or Miller? If not Iribarren, then McGehee, Peralta, and Rivas? They make a good trading partner because they have a need at 3B. Rays - Shields is probably due arby, as might Sonnastine. Unfortunately they have 2B and 3B locked down with All-Stars. Don't know how they feel about Dioner Navarro, but he is having a crappy season and might be due arby and as far as I can tell they don't have any catching prospects coming down the road. As much as I want to hand over the catching duties to Salome, would a package of Salome, Peralta, and Rivas get Shields? Or Shields + Navarro for Salome, Peralta, Rivas, and either Wooten or Aguilar? Alright, let me know how unreasonable these are...

I couldn't find the Cole Gillespie thread - maybe it got deleted when he was traded - so feel free to merge this with that thread in case I missed it (I searched back to June). Since the trade Gillespie has a .424 OBP and a .920 OPS in 132 PAs, and for the season now has a .370 OBP and 11 triples. Those who said that he was better than what his stats were at the time, perhaps still recovering from the injury, might just have been right. I know he is limited to LF due to his shoulder being ground beef, but I think Braun is athletic enough and has a strong enough arm to move to RF (if not eventually CF), and having the flexibility to trade Hart in the offseason (both for pitching and to move his salary) would have been nice. Supposedly SF is high on Hart, and if that could get Sanchez that would have helped. I still think Gillespie's OBP and speed would play well at the top of the order or the #8 spot. Not gonna be a superstar - no team save the Yankee$ has one of those at every position - but I think he could provide equal numbers to Hart.

Hopefully that is the case, and I would be willing to toss in one or two of the plethora of A-ball arms to up the value of that return. They'll have plenty of pitching in 2012 - they need some right now.

Honestly, it just sounds to me like he's already making excuses to hedge against future fan disappointment. If he approaches this off-season with the same mentality he did last year, I'm going to be extremely upset. He should have realized that sitting on his hands isn't going to improve the team by now. Let's be realistic: #1) The Brewers have a limited payroll. While it is higher than pre-Mark A., it still is limited. Thus why taking on Kazmir and the $20M he is due the next two years for what sounds like three good prospects was too much of a gamble considering Kazmir's performance this year. #2) You can suggest all the trades you want until you are blue in the face it doesn't mean the other team is going to accept it. Bingo, nate. No one knows who was offered for what, and no one knows if both parties would have accepted. It takes two to tango. #3) Just as Milwaukee isn't going to trade away good young pitching, neither is anyone else. We don't know exactly how much of a say Melvin has come draft time, but a lot of that was Jack Z and whomever reported to Jack Z. There was a rumor that Jack Z. was against drafting Gallardo, and I shudder to think where this team would be had Jack Z. gotten his way. If Melvin was the one who overruled Jack Z., then we owe a lot to Melvin right now.

Kazmir is due $8M next year and $12M the year after, and if this year is the norm and not the exception or if he is hurt then people will be calling for Melvin's head for giving up good prospects for Suppan Part II. Kazmir now has been traded twice, which makes you wonder a little bit. Also, what we have seen so far from Escobar is a small sample and we don't know that he would have been able to handle major league pitching had he not spent the year at AAA. While some players can make the jump from AA, not many can and usually they are power hitters and power pitchers. They had no one to step in for Hart internally, so they would have had to go outside the organization for a RF (unless you would have been comfortable with TGJ as your starting RF).

Wow, what a screw job on Hardy. I can't see him ever playing for the team again after this fiasco. Well, if Hardy hadn't stunk up the joint he wouldn't be in this position. Where I work you have to produce to be rewarded - shouldn't that be the case everywhere? It's just as bad, if not worse, to reward poor performance.

It's no one's fault but Melvin's for having no one better than Burns to replace Suppan (though Burns is even a slight improvement in my opinion). I'd say that after seven years or so of drafts that Jack Z. certainly is responsible for a good chunk of that.

Rogers... as Lee Corso would say, "Yo!" Merklinger... "Yo!" Aguilar... "Ouch!" True - I think you're right on that. I have Butler, Jones, Cody, Capuano, and Hand. If Cappy isn't back then... David Welch!

Absolutely amazing, and it makes you wonder how many other people who were abducted at young ages are still alive somewhere in a basement or remote location. I read that some of the neighbors reported hearing the sounds of children in the backyard, but thought that "it's none of their business" or that they were hippies or something like that who just lived that way. The one thing I can't figure out is that this girl had two children by this (despicable) guy... my question is, where were they born, who delivered those children when they were born, and where did they get their post-delivery medical care? When someone is admitted to a hospital don't they get every bit of information about them? I had a friend whose "girlfriend" broke her arm at another friend's wedding when she slipped on the dance floor... but when she was admitted to the hospital they asked her what her marital status was and that's when we found out that they had eloped a few months later because she had to tell them she was married. How does that slip through the cracks? Maybe that's part of the "bonding" thing.

Probably Taylor Green and a left-handed Wily Peralta would be the equivalent. However I'm guessing that Kazmir was not on the table in late July. With only a month left in the season the chances of one of their (Rays) starters going down is less and they have guys who can step in and take his place without losing any depth. How many Sweeney's are there?

I can understand a strike zone that goes a couple of inches outside of the plate, and a little below the knees and up at the letters. But when the pitch is literally so far outside that it is not physically possible for them to hit the ball while standing in the batters box is unacceptable, and that is what I saw. I have a feeling that the Little League umps are instructed to have a very big strike zones for these games. A mary-go-round ride around the basepaths makes for bad TV. I disagree - the Canada/Germany game (I believe won 14-13) was one of the most exciting games I have ever watched. One team was down big in the 5th but scored 11 runs in the 5th to go up 13-10, only to give up four in the sixth to lose.

JB - you left out the walk. If you want a guy to get any respect around here he has to walk a lot. I'll pimp my rook too - Fiers, while giving up a 2-run dinger (only hit given up) still struck out 4 in two innings and in 36 innings on the season has given up 20 hits, walked 5, and struck out 53. Interesting that he has gone 2 or more innings in every appearance in Brevard so far.

Plenty of people are predicting a double-dip recession. Plenty of reasons for this - the main one being that we are not out of the mortgage mess by any means, and are predicted to hit the second wave now. Do a search on "IMF Mortgage Resets" and see what comes up (or check the Business Week issue from the last week of June); the subprime mess has come and gone but according to these sources the Alt-A arms don't peak until this fall and the prime ARMs don't peak until 2010, and the $ volume of those loans is just as much as the subprime market. The ARM loan resets aren't expected to decline until 2011, so it will be at least 2012 before the mortgage market starts looking up. Right now the uptick in housing sales are coming from foreclosures and short-sales, many of which are new homes that were built long ago but not sold and now are being picked up for 1/3rd of what they were listed for (because they have been looted for anything that could be stolen and/or never got finished). The other thing is that the market typically declines in September and October, and when Q3 results start coming in October and disappoint, particularly with bank stocks, the prospects of a decline in the market are good. Personally, I have gotten out of all of the bank stocks I bought in Feb/March (at a handsome profit) and even though those stocks have gone up a little in the two weeks since I sold them, according to my sources in the near future I will be glad I sold. Bank of America is trading at 50x earnings, and they said when they announced Q2 earnings to be cautious because something like $5B in revenue was from selling off a European bank that was a one-time boost, and that barely put them in the black for Q2. Edit - my area is skewed a bit, and I don't know what your areas look like, but in Redondo Beach, Manhattan Beach, and Hermosa Beach (total population of 100,000, maybe a little more) there are 250 residences for sale between $600K and $1.1M (the floor is $600K - anything under that is a condo or townhouse; Manhattan Beach properties generally start at $1M - anything less than that is a "fixer upper"). Look at wherever you live and what the median home price is and see how many homes are for sale in that price range relative to the population.