LouisEly

We could have used a bullpen arm. It ain't July 31st yet. Also, The Cubs and Cards have a total of one left handed starter in their rotations now. Having Durham may help big time. A very astute observation. I like this deal even more now.

Arby is unlikely as they would have to offer him at least $3M. Perhaps there is a "handshake" agreement that they will offer him a split contract minor league deal that will pay him fairly well for the minors with a significant bump in pay over the ML minimum if he gets called up. You'd have to think that one of Sheets/Sabathia will be back (Sheets, Gagne, Mota, and Capuano combine for almost $28M), plus Yo, Suppan, Parra, Bush, McClung, Villanueva, and Narron, so even if they lose Capuano I don't think it will have any impact on 2009.

As I mentioned in the trade rumors forum, Ford is unlikely to ever see a major league field and Hammond is interchangeable with Narron, Welch, Miller, and Wright. Durham is a contingency plan who has shown fairly consistently that he can get on base against righties at a much better clip than Weeks. I'm not willing to bank this year on the "if" that Weeks reverts back to his potential (I think it was Casey Stengel who once said that, "'Potential' is a French word that means you're not worth a damn yet.") They upgraded the bench, added a switch-hitting bat, has a specific role (possibly platoon vs righties with Weeks), and got him for basically nothing. Not the most glamorous move, but if he can have an OBP that is at least .050 greater than Weeks versus righties than it is a good move. Thanks Joe Dillon - see you September 1st.

I guess the counter-argument is that we should be encouraged that his OBP is 100 points greater than his BA, but I think that there are limits to the usefulness of that point. You bring up the argument that I hate the most and think is the biggest fallacy in all of baseball - "his OBP is 100 points greater than his BA..." Well, here's the reality: Batting average is the biggest component of OBP!!! No one gets more walks than hits. This is the majors - pitchers will throw strikes. The top power hitters of the decade will draw a lot of intentional walks, but beyond that these are major league pitchers - they throw strikes! This is not little league. With the exception of the top power hitters in the game, it is very difficult to walk enough to make your OBP more than 100 points higher than your batting average, thus any good OBP is going to be reliant on having a good batting average. A batting average of less than .250 just isn't going to cut it, because it will be almost impossible to get the OBP over .350. Yes, OBP is important, but since the biggest component of OBP is batting average you need to take both into consideration.

Rickie will play against lefties, where he is at .265 - .380 for the season. Against righties, he is hitting .199 with a .280 OBP. Meanwhile, Durham against righties this year is hitting .318 with an OBP of .398. So we are replacing a .199/.280 lead off hitter against righties with a .318/.398 guy. Why are you complaining? Thank you! If the projection systems did what you suggest they did, they would be guilty of the gambler's fallacy. They do not. Durham's overperformance so far raises his Marcel for the rest of the year, Weeks's underperformance lowers his Marcel for the rest of the year. But the original gap in their projection was such that not even a gap as wide as has existed so far this season is enough to compensate for it. Brawndo, I like your posts and you are one of my favorite posters, however there is an old saying, "If 'ifs' and 'buts' were candies and nuts, it would be Christmas the whole year 'round." (I prefer, "If 'buts' and 'ands' were pots and pans we'd all be gourmet chefs.") The reality is that Rickie has been given ample opportunity to revert back to "norm" and he is not doing it. The sample size for Weeks is getting larger and larger with little if any improvement. I am not willing to bank the season on Rickie and 'ifs' and 'buts'. Melvin is proactively going out and getting a contingency plan in case Rickie and those 'ifs' and 'buts' turn out to be Santa Claus. Yeah I want to believe in Rickie, and I'd like to believe in Santa Claus, but Virginia, there is no Santa Claus, and I'll take the bird in hand that is Durham in case Weeks continues to be a partridge in a pear tree. There is another saying, "it is what it is". Rickie is what he is, and Ray is what he is. And the fact that it cost Darren Ford, who I will bet anyone $20 will never see more than a cup of coffee in the majors, and Hammond who is interchangeable with Narron, Welch, Miller, and Wright, is nothing. They got a contingency plan for basically nothing. And I am A-OK with that.

A couple of college pitchers, namely Wade Leblanc (the next pick), Kevin Mulvey (the pick after that), and Justin Masterson (a little later in the round), along with a college 3B (Wes Hodges), would have been much better picks. Hopefully a lesson learned -- don't draft the best athlete available, draft the best player available. This isn't a decathlon. Amen. No matter how athletic you are it takes skill to put a bat on a ball.

EDIT: I never noticed it before, but compare Nelson's AAA numbers to Laynce Nix. 1) Nix never broke his hammate, or had any serious injury. B) Outside of 2007, which appears to be the exception, since 2005 Nelson has had much better plate discipline. 2005: 71BB/116K; 2006: 81BB/96K; 2007: 31BB/98K; 2008: 59BB/53K. Nix has never had that type of plate discipline.

Yawn... Hey, TGJ with gap power and Katin with a walk - you don't see that everyday. Gillespie with another 1-2 with 2BB (and two SB) performance - OPS is still just a tad under .900 in the Southern League with OBP in upwards of .385. Think about that for a while. Anybody else letting Steffan Wilson fly under their radar? Where you been? I've been pimping this guy for a year. Maybe they're listening to me and will play him more at 3B as it is questionable if Gamel can stick there and whether/not Green is the PTBNL; even with those two his best shot is probably at 3B. Wilson's L/R & H/A splits are pretty close too. Fryer's been spending more time behind the plate lately (increasing chance Lucroy is PTBNL?); hitting has cooled off the last five games but is drawing a good number of walks. You'd think it's not too long before Wooten sees West Virginia.

Must be some Cali people chiming in with the EPL - good stuff. Personally, Fatburger = way overrated, way overpriced - $8 for a Fatburger when you can get a 4x4 at In 'n Out for $5.50? Not big on the In 'n Out fries, but I'm surprised by the number of people who don't know that you can get the fries "animal style" too (w/cheese & chopped fried onions on them). Between In 'n Out and Culvers... I gotta give the nod to Culvers because of the ice cream. I prefer the crinkle fries of Culver's to INO; to each his own. For those who do not live in WI (or Spokane, WA), Rocky's is not something you can get. Seems like Rocky's is something you love or hate ("ketchup and Wonder Bread" as my friend calls it), but every WI person out here has a fix for Rocky's. Like the sauce/crust or not, Rocky's does have the best sausage around. Whenever I get back to WI I gotta make a stop at Rocky's; my friends say that I have to get a pizza and bring it on the plane back with me. (Beef 'n Cheddars - 2 for $4 right now... mmmmmm.)

-The team needs a starter for Monday, the 21st. Huh? Bush is listed. I guess if Yost does the home/road split it may be McClung, but I don't think he will pull the trigger on that. As good as Bush was in his last start I think he'll get another shot on the road. It will be only one start on the road, then Bush will get two at home.

Perhaps the biggest advantage is how the pitching matchups will play out right out of the gate. The Brewers start with Sabathia and Sheets in SF, then get them during the last two games at STL, they skip the home series vs. Houston (thus Parra and Bush get Houston at home where they are more effective), then Sabathia and Sheets go the first two games of the home series vs the Cubs (with Parra and Bush getting the last two at home). Sabathia and Sheets avoid a direct matchup with Lincecum (Parra gets him at SF). These last two weeks of July are going to be huge. They need to take advantage of these pitching matchups and the games vs. CHI & STL.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/schedule?team=mil Suppan listed as the starter for the 22nd. That would indicate McClung to the bullpen. If so... who is the odd man out? Mota finally gets released?

Farris with another three-hit night (all singles though). Wilson goes 4-5 with a walk. Both were college guys, but both are only 22 - if they finish strong will they both jump A+ next year and go to Huntsville? I think that hinges on the fate of Taylor Green. Same w/Fryer - he'll be 23 next month, but whether or not he jumps to AA depends on the fate of Lucroy. For a while there was this Wheeler/Wilson debate, and while Wheeler may be the better athlete Wilson is certainly starting to pull away from Wheeler in the hitting department. I'd like to see Wilson play more 3B because that may be his best shot at making it. Cain seems to be adjusting well to AA. If he can play CF then I think the best outcome of the PTBNL deal might be if Cleveland takes one of Cain or Brantley. Wright goes to show that sometimes pitchers are working on specific things in A-ball and rookie ball, thus not putting too much stock in their numbers. (However I strongly believe that when you get to AA you have to start producing numbers.)

I was really hoping that they would keep Frederickson at Helena for the whole year to build his confidence. I don't think it will do him any good to bounce around; let him stay at one place with one coach and get consistent coaching. That being said, at rookie and A ball often they are working on specific things in games so numbers/stats can be deceiving as to their true ability. Wilson going yard again. Would like to see him play more 3B, but with Farris at 2B he and Wheeler need to play somewhere. Luetge could/should be next in line to go to WV. Coming from Rice he should be dominating in the rookie league and be on a fast track. We were all concerned about WV's pitching a month ago, but with Frederickson, Bowman, probably soon to be Luetge, and with a few more good outings possibly Wooten on their way it should be shored up pretty soon.. Had they picked a few more college bats and/or had a few less injuries, Romanski could have been on his way too but he needs to get back in the groove of pitching after needing to DH the first couple of weeks. Cody should be on his way to Huntsville soon. Ungs and Cate probably have specific roles to be rubber arms to save the prospects from overuse, but Cody should be the 5th starter in Huntsville.

Let's not get too excited about Komatsu. Rookie level pitching is considered to be a step below college-level pitching, and having come out of the UC system Komatsu has faced a lot of good pitching. I won't get excited about him until he puts up these numbers in A-ball.

There we go - I knew it had to be a simple setting but I couldn't find it. Now as for opening video attachments...

Only four innings (79 pitches) for Steve Hammond? He's recently off the DL with a dead arm, so I don't know that he has 100 pitches in him right now without going back on the DL. Seven strikeouts in 4 IP though... high strikeout pitchers throw a lot of pitches. In his two outings after coming off the DL he has only thrown seven innings, but has struck out 13 and walked two. I'm sure they're being careful with him since he is just off the DL. Interesting comments about Merklinger; I could see that if he was a 43rd round pick, but he was a sixth round pick. Then again as a college pitcher he is probably expected to produce sooner rather than later. Chances are the injury is non-arm related (knee/ankle sprain, non-throwing arm, back, etc.) if they are expecting him to "rehab" while playing. Merklinger's fellow draft classmate Farris is rebounding from his awful start... is there a chance he could develop into a Mike Fontenot, Ryan Theriot, or Dustin Pedroia? Their other classmate Nieves is starting to raise some eyebrows, and when you add in Fryer, Scarpetta, Dennis, Hand, Bramhall, Wheeler, Wilson, Barron, and Zarraga, "day 2" of that draft (rounds 7+) could yield a couple of major leaguers.

So I've been using Thunderbird for a while, and while I like some things about it there are two things that drive me up a tree: 1) Most video attachments I cannot open up directly - I have to save them to my computer first. Usually .WMV and .AVI files. When I double-click on the attachment it automatically prompts me to save it. When I right-click and select "Open" it does the same thing. 2) When I reply, it automatically places the cursor at the bottom of the email, not the top. Anyone know how to fix these things? Thanks! (And NO, I will not go to G-Mail. I hate Google and everything about it.)

One of the things that will make it difficult to trade for bullpen help is that there are not a lot of teams that are out of the race, and many of the teams with the worst records (COL, SD, SF) are in the weakest division (NL West). Another issue is that a lot of these teams have young guys in the bullpen (SEA, ATL, KC) and if they are rebuilding they may not want to part with them (or they would cost too much). That being said, it appears that the Brewers don't really need a closer so much as they need set up men that won't implode a la Mota and Gagne. The first thing they need to do is jettison Mota and bring up Pena, but they need one more reliever so we don't need to see Gagne. Some middle relief guys who shouldn't require a top-5 or top-10 prospect in return: 1) Matt Herges, COL - old (38) but consistent - very little difference between home/road and day/night, so you know what you are getting. Good numbers (high-3's/low 4's ERA) the last two years considering he's pitching half his games in Coors. 2) Jason Grilli, COL - not young but not old (31), not sure why DET gave up on him since he has been a decent reliever for them the last two years; putting up good numbers in COL; has experience with DET in the playoffs 3) Saul Rivera, WAS - pitched in a lot of games last year (85!) - might be concerned about the wear on his arm, but not young (30) and pretty consistent the last three years. He may be due for a big raise, so WAS might want to part with him. Probably would cost the most of the group in return. 4) Keiichi Yabu, SF - old (39), good numbers in SF 5) Jack Taschner, SF - already discussed ad nauseum in other threads; not young (30) but with the Cubs and Cardinals being heavily right-handed bats I'd prefer a RH reliever 6) Chad Bradford, BAL - more of a ROOGY as he has routinely pitched more games than innings Of these, my preference would be 1) Rivera (but would cost the most) and 2) Herges. Lots of other LH relievers out there (Ron Mahay, Arthur Rhodes) but I would prefer a righty. The other rightys out there (Heath Bell, etc.) would probably cost as much or more than Linebrink last year; the one exception that I might explore would be Jon Rausch of WAS. Their 5th starters have been abysmal, so a couple of starter prospects (Narron, Hammond, Periard) might get them to listen.

If Hardy is moved, 3B makes more sense to me. Honestly, I never thought of this, and it is not a bad idea long term at all. But Hardy will have to prove that he can put up a .800 OPS consistently to stay there. The Hardy of the 2nd half of last year and the first two months of this year I don't think will cut it at 3B, but if he can stay over .800 OPS than it is a heck of an idea. Maybe our long-term 3B solution is right under our nose.

Uh, Al, 3 pitchers, a 3rd catcher, and a couple others equals 6-7. I said seven will definitely get called up. No such thing as "too many" if they are in a playoff run. If they were out of it then I'd say only 3-5, but last year they called up eight players: Rottino, Villanueva, Spurling, Stetter, Stocker (9/2), Rivera (9/4), Vargas/Parra (9/9 & 9/22 - Vargas technically activated off of DL, but he went on the DL when Sheets was activated, and Parra was called up to replace Sheets, and the Parra was activated off the DL on 9/22, so one of those in that Lazy Suzan has to be a callup because not all were on the roster at the same time prior to 9/1), and Nix (9/11). Nashville was in the playoffs so that is the only reason why Nix wasn't called up until 9/11. Such will not be the case this year, so expect any and all Nashville callups to be on a flight to Milwaukee on 9/1. So I don't think it is out of the realm to call up seven on 9/1, especially with Nashville out of it. They need more arms and at least one more long reliever (DiFelice) because the bullpen has been getting worked a lot lately with short starts by McClung, Sheets, and Suppan. And at this point I don't think it's a stretch to think that all of DiFelice, Dillard, and Pena are better options than Mota, so it could be argued that until Mota is replaced by one of those three that the Brewers are working with an 11 man staff right now. Narron would make a nice additional lefty to have in the pen too, so I think of the "probablys" he is the first one to grab an available 40-man slot. The others I don't think are as likely as Narron, but I'd say Nix as #9 for his LH bat and power, Stocker as #10, and Turnbow the least likely but only a possibility because of experience. If I'm DM, the last thing I want to do is get caught short-handed in an extra inning game (or have my bullpen taxed the day after an extra inning game), so if it means a few bodies on the bench who may never see action then so be it. I think the extra half-million or so that it may cost to carry them for a month (and they are heavy on home games - 16 home vs 10 road - so less travel expenses) will be more than offset by the playoff revenue if they make it.

Definitely: DiFelice Dillard TGJ Iribarren Nelson Pena Rottino Probably: Escobar (perhaps not until Huntsville is finished) Narron/Nix/Stocker/Turnbow (38 currently on the 40, plus can 60-day DL Capuano and outright Gardner) Outside chance: Choate Hammond Gamel

Can Mota find a Suppan-esque injury that can keep him on the DL until September 1st? You know, take some time to rehab until he can become the 17th pitcher on the staff.

Why not wait until September 1st to move Parra to the pen or piggy-back him to limit his innings? As mentioned earlier, you can skip him once or twice in that August stretch, and then wait until they have DiFelice, Dillard, Pena, Narron, and perhaps Hammond, and then piggy-back him with one of those guys. Right now I count 38 on the 40-man, plus they could 60-day Capuano and release/DFA/outright Mota and Gardner.

If Paciorek broke his hammate bone, you'd think he would have been out longer than two weeks. Gotta like what Bramhall has done this year. Walks are a little high, GOAO could be a little higher, but almost a K per inning and almost 20 fewer hits than IP. I would like to see him move into the starting rotation to see what he could do, and if he could join that lefty starter prospect group of Hammond, Narron, Welch, Miller, and Wright. All project as 4th/5th starters, but lefty 4th/5th starters have trade value. I've been on the Steffan Wilson bandwagon for a while - go smart guys! If he can play a decent 3B he may have a chance... Like I've been saying, I'm not giving up on Katin yet. The big fella went yard again with another walk; some regular playing time is doing him well. I'm more amazed by his four triples than anything. Still staying under the radar, while having a very good season, is Laynce Nix. I'd be willing to bet that someone will go on the 60-day DL in September to be able to put Nix on the 40-man and bring his lefty bat up for the playoff run. Could that be what the Choate move ultimately yields? Nix and Katin would make an interesting platoon; not for the Brewers, but if they could package them together in a deal with a pitcher they might be able to get some value in return.