TwinsBrewersWorldSeries

if we're not willing to trade McGehee/Hardy (two spare parts) for Blackburn, we're never going to improve. Blackburn has struggled in the 2nd half of both of his first two seasons, but he also plays in the homer-dome. I'd say there is atleast a 30-40% chance that Blackburn will end up with a better career than Gallardo. People can disagree obviously, but we have to give up something to get something. Blackburn would easily be a top-2 pitcher on our staff in 2010, and could very well breakout (think Zach Greinke). The Brewers could also be very bold and do a JJ Hardy/Lawrie for Blackburn/Swarzak deal. Simply put, if i could trade the Twins rotation for the Brewers rotation (from the Brewers perspective), i'd do it in a second. The Twins rotation is what we should be trying to build towards.

As a Twins fan, there is no way the Twins trade Span. Span has become one of the best leadoff men in the League. Twins might do Span for Ryan Braun, but obviously we wouldn't. Why would the Twins trade Span, who is only 25, who is under their control for atleast 5 more years. The Brewers could probably get Young, but the Twins will not be trading Span, Mauer, Morneau, or Kubel. The Twins might be interested in trading Baker, but it would take atleast Escobar or Gamel and Manny Parra. The Brewers are better off targeted one/two of the Twins pre-arby pitchers who have yet to break out

McGehee alone is not worth Blackburn. Blackburn and Punto for McGehee and Hardy might get it done.

I can tell you that we'd never get Slowey for JJ. As i noted in the original post, it would probably take JJ, McGehee, and either Lucroy/Salmone. Delmon Young comes back to the Brewers as a "throw in"... As someone that has been to about 20 Twins games, i can tell you that the pitching staff simply has had a very down year. However, unlike the Brewers who field Looper, Suppan, etc, the Twins rotation is full of pitchers in their first 1-3 seasons in MLB who are taking their lumps early in their career and are likely the improve. Simply put, the Brewers need to trade for pitchers in year 3-5 of their MLB career. If they they've shown they are above replacement level, are still cheap, and are young enough to expect improvement, then thats exactly who we should target. JJ/McGehee are "extra parts" at this point, and there are a limited amount of teams that might trade a pre-arby pitcher in their early/mid-20s. Given the Twins infield needs, this seems to be a good match. 2009 Stats for Comparison Gallardo 3.84 ERA 1.32 WHIP (23) Looper 4.89 ERA 1.46 WHIP (34) Suppan 4.87 ERA 1.69 WHIP (34) Bush 5.88 ERA 1.38 WHIP (29) Parra 6.42 ERA 1.84 WHIP (26) Twins Trade Targets? Blackburn 4.34 ERA 1.42 WHIP (27) - note this is with an AWFUL 2nd half... he had an ERA of 3.07 pre all-star break and has shown his youth in the 2nd half (2nd full season) Slowely 4.86 ERA 1.41 WHIP - (25)- note 2nd full season. His rookie year he had a 3.99 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. I think Slowey is due for a Zach Greinke like breakout in 2010 Perkins 5.89 ERA 1.48 WHIP - (26)- also 2nd full season (LHP- profiles similar to Manny Parra per baseball-reference Swarzak - ERA/WHIP in rookie season (23) nothing to write home about.... but another young arm to target Duensing 2.00 ERA (in six starts as a starter)- (26)- rookie this season Scott Baker (3.45/4.35 ERAs the past 2 seasons, but outstanding WHIPS 1.17, 1.15. Doubtful the Twins trade him Throw in Manship, Liriano, Pavano, and the Twins have atleast nine pitchers fighting for FIVE spots next season

how about we offer him a 1 year, $5 million deal. If he's healthy and starts more than 25 games, he gets incentives to push his contract as high as $15 million. I know it sounds absurd, but maybe $1 million for each start after 25. If he comes back (healthy) but posts a 5.50 ERA then obviously he'd be out of the rotation by the 25th turn. However, if he'd come back and give us 180-200 innings at a 3.50-4.00 ERA, i'd gladly pay $10-15 million for ONE year for that kind of production. I really like Gallardo, but i'm sorry... a Gallardo/Bush/Parra/Suppan/Looper rotation is awful. In fact this might be the worst, or one of the worst rotations in the NL (see Brewers 2009) Gallardo/Sheets/Trade Acquisition)/Bush or Parra/Suppan looks much better

So i've been pumped about the late Twins surge to hopefully overtake Detroit for the playoffs and started thinking about each team's needs. The Twins largely have a surplus of cheap pitching (all average to above average guys) who are still in their mid 20s. Delmon Young was an elite prospect before his infamous minor league suspension, yet still has the potential to breakout and help salvage that awful 2003 draft class. Why we do it: We get cheaper at SS, and get a legit top of the rotation starter (blackburn or someone else). Simply put, we need to bring in a decent pitcher next year that is cheap enough and young enough to improve for our next window, be it 2011 or 2012. McGehee is a nice piece, but we should sell high. Gamel takes over at 3B, Weeks back at 2B, Escobar at Short, we don't have room for Casey. Young might simply need a change of scenery and given Hart's lack of production, we either trade Hart (and replace him with Young), or move Hart to CF (let Cameron Walk), or keep Young as a fourth outfielder (Gerut was simply awful this season for us), Why the Twins do it. This is their window. Hardy & McGehee would replace Punto/Crede for the Twins and would instantly improve an offense built around Mauer and Morneau. This would signal the M&M duo that the Twins are serious about winning and going for it while Nathan is still around. Span has developed into a nice leadoff hitter for the Twins, and Hardy, McGehee, Span, Mauer, Morneau, and Kubel give the team some serious potential in 2010 if the pitching improves (should with another year under their belt for the young pitching staff) We might have to throw in Lucroy or Salmone (in case the Twins lose Mauer) is we want blackburn/slowey as opposed to a Duensing/Perkins, but i'd target any of the young arms Minnesota has (no, not Liriano)... whoever we could get would likely instantly become our #2 start behind Yo. Blackburn or Slowey might even push Yo to a #2.

Looking at the way the season has gone, and the likely outlook going forward ( I fully expect Gamel, Escobar, and Lawrie to be our starting 2B-SS-3B by 2011), i think we've made a big mistake by not securing a #1 pitcher (either by matching NYY's offer for CC, or pushing harder to get Jake Peavy). I'm not entirely ready to concede 2010, but its doubtful that we will be able to do much next year without a serious upgrade in pitching. That said, i'm looking to 2011 (from a salary standpoint) Looking at our roster for 2011 C- Salmone/Lucroy (unless either is traded, both should be pre-arby in 2011) 1B- Overbay Type FA ($5 million) 2B- Lawrie- (pre-arby) SS- Escober (pre-arby) 3B- Gamel (pre-arby) LF- Braun ($4 million) CF- ?? (one of our OF prospects)- likely pre-arby RF- ?? (maybe a FA- we seems to be ok at picking these up- Cat, Kapler, etc..) (5 mil) Bench- McGehee (pre-arby), Salmone/Lucroy (pre-arby)/ Utility INF (2 mil), Utility OF (2 mil), current prospect (pre-arby) Rotation- Gallardo- $7 million (1st year arby) Parra- $3 million (1st year arby) Bush $5-6 mil (maybe if Melvin gave him a 2 year 2010 and 2011 deal Pticher Acquired in Fielder/Hardy deals ($5M) Sabathia/Peavy $25 million Bullpen- $15 million We're at $79 million + pre-arby ($5 million) = $84 million. We really have another solid/cheap wave of offensive prospects coming through, but unless we hurry, we're going to have 1 elite pitcher (Yo), and 4 duds while the young prospects are cheap. Since pitching is harder to predict, and often more expensive, one would think our window would almost need to be when the BATS are young, and the pitching is experienced. I firmly believe that a Peavy/Sabathia + Overbay type FA is worth more to this team than a Fielder/Braden Looper combo, but given how rarely #1 ace pitchers (CC/Peavy etc) are on the market, i think we blew a solid chance to lock in another 1/2 pitcher for the next 3-4 seasons

I don't really like injury excuses though. Weeks was having a breakout year, but basically he's been injured every season. Its not like the Brewers weren't giving him ABs, he just keeps taking himself off the field.

Don't look now but McGehee has struggled quite a bit since the AS break. I know this is a small sample (72 AB), but his "breakout" this spring was only 140 AB. Casey still has a very solid .298/.360/.491/.851 but the splits before/after the AS break are pretty significant. I realize also that he's also been battling injuries 1st Half .329/.387/.541/.928 146 AB 17 Extra Base hits 2nd Half .236/.304/.389/.693 72 5 Extra Base hits

Most days i have a great deal of faith in the good of humanity. This was not one of those days. I put this guy in the group of individuals that stroll around presidential events with loaded guns. I'm not sure why, but it seems like we have alot of people who are absolutely desensitized to violence. Props to Mayor Barrett and the thousands of other good citizens that put their lives on the line for strangers. Throw the book at the guy. If he serves less than 10 years, i will be extremely disappointed.

I like this deal from both sides. Toronto gets rid of a bad contract considering they are going to be rebuilding. ChiSox get a talented player that might help push a good team over the top. I really believe Kenny W claimed Rios to block the Tigers, but this might work out for him anyways

Hey guys, great discussion on this. Wasn't sure if it would garner much attention, but i would offer this. The casual brewer fan that goes to 1-2 games a year would barely notice the user fee. A group of four buddies would have to fork out an additional $5 per game (assume 4 tickets, 1 parked car). That is less than the cost of a beer inside the stadium. This is a bad example (since food isn't taxed), but an average family probably spends $100/week on groceries. A 1/10% tax equates to about $5.00 on a year's worth of groceries, again not a huge deal. I think all and all, we've been trained to be "anti-tax" regardless of the purpose, instead of trying to find a meaningful way of balancing the need for tax revenue (and property taxes) versus the public good. Clearly Miller Park has been a huge asset to the community the past 2-3 years. During the dark ages of the decade, it probably could have been fairly justified as a poor investment, but now with record attendance, it clearly is the "place to be" during the summer and we are attracting thousands of fans/tourists from other states. Maybe the Brewers can tie "tax revenue" with a winning record??? years where we have a winning record, the Stadium gets the tax revenue, years the brewers don't etc.... (ok ok, i know that isn't practical) At the end of the day, despite living in northwest wisconsin, i make about 20-25 trips to MP per year. paying an extra $25 per season would be fine by me if it leads to lower taxes (even though i don't currently pay any to the stadium district). If they leave it the way it is, fine, but i do think from a public relations perspective that it would be nice if the MLBPA/Owners actually contributed more to fund their private enterprise rather than taxing an unwilling public or middle class fans. If the NFL/NBA/MLB devoted 10% of all revenue to maintaining their stadiums/facilities, they'd never need to ask the public for a dime.

my first reaction was: Wow, which team is dumb enough to do that (claim Rios). Props to Toronto, and i'd say good riddance if I was their GM. Jettison Rios, and complete a contract extention for Halladay with the money saved. Might even save the GM his job. I wonder if the mystery GM would place a waiver claim on Bill Hall or Jeff Suppan?

Why we do it: Garza is a cheap, player under our control for 3 years (might be able to sign him after 2010 to a Ben Sheets type 4/40 contract) He would instantly become our #2, maybe even #1 and become a great 1-2 punch with Yovani Why the Rays do it: They have a huge hole at DH (Pat the Bat is showing his age), and coming off this monster season for Prince, the Rays would make a huge splash in the AL East by adding him How we replace Fielder: (some sort of trade for Adam Dunn, or slide Gamel to 1B)

Looks like this could happen as early as 2010. Per the article, Miller Park's sales tax was expected to end in 2014. My question would be, doesn't the stadium district have a fund for continuous upgrades to the stadium so that costs can be split between the Brewers and the stadium district? In a economic depressed era, it makes sense to charge a user fee rather than raise (or extend) new taxes on the general public, but i'm wondering if this could become some sort of permanent fix to allow for continuous improvements to the stadium (curtains anyone?) http://www.journaltimes.com/articles/2009/08/05/local_news/doc4a7a21a6ab282188755968.txt Lehman pitches user fees to pay Miller Park debt By Journal Times staff Wednesday, August 5, 2009 7:20 PM CDT MADISON - A Racine-area lawmaker is making his pitch for an alternative way to pay off the Miller Park construction debt. Sen. John Lehman, D-Racine wants to charge user fees on tickets and parking to offset the sales tax, assessed to Racine County and four other southeastern Wisconsin counties, to pay for the Milwaukee ballpark's debt. Lehman suggests tacking $1 on to the price of tickets and $1 per car and $3 per bus to park at the stadium. Lehman made the request in a letter to Racine County's two representatives to the Southeast Wisconsin Professional Baseball Park District board - Doug Stansil and Robert Henzl. "The economic slowdown has, predictably, led to falling sales tax collection in the communities required to help pay for the stadium," Lehman said in his letter. "As a consequence the five-county stadium sales tax would need to continue beyond the projected 2014 termination date in the absence of any additional revenues." Recent sales tax data from the state Department of Revenue showed the 0.1 percent stadium district sales tax collections in Racine, Milwaukee, Waukesha, Washington and Ozaukee counties in July 2009 were down nearly 14 percent compared to July 2008, according to Lehman. Year-to-date sales tax collections are approximately $1 million below projections, Lehman said in a release. User fees could generate $3 million annually to help retire the stadium debt, according to estimates Lehman requested from the Legislative Fiscal Bureau. The stadium district could enact these surcharges under its current authority, according to the fiscal bureau.

Before i start, i fully admit that Zito might have one of the worst pitching contracts in MLB history. However, given the fact that Suppan and Hall bring virtually nothing to our 2010 team while ravaging the Brewers for a combined $21 million makes this not seem entirely absurd. Zito is owed $76 million over the next 4 seasons + 7 million buyout for 2014 (essentially $83m for the next 4 years) If the Giants were willing to eat Suppan and Hall's salary and give us $5m for 2011, 2012, and 2013, as well as pay the $7 million buy out in 2014, would you do it? $83 million - $21 million saved (2010) - $22 million (2011-2014 salary) relief = $40 million for 4 seasons of Zito. My gut reaction is that i like the fact that we don't have any bad contracts past 2010, and this could be a bad contract even at the reduced rate. However, given what the Brewers have penciled in for their rotation the next couple seasons, if Zito rebounds at all he's probably our #2 or #3 pitcher. Thoughts?

i still think we could get Kyle Drabek for Billy Hall. The Phillies might have to throw "Cliff Lee" in as well though because we are trading the best 3b in the league

If we had gotten this haul for Ben Sheets in July, 2007, i would have been pissed. Considering that the Indians have traded two Cy Young winners in a row and have La Porta + 4 mediocre prospects, i'd be calling for their GM's head right now. Given how weak the AL Central is, this was a terrible trade.

Follow Up Question, if I get the 20 choice pack, when can I get my actual seats for the games? i don't mind moving around as long as i have those seats in hand before the season starts. I imagine with a 20 choice pack they give you 20 vouchers, or do they send you tickets for games after the other promos have ended... For example, if i bought a 20 pack January 1st... why couldn't i pick from the available seats that are available on January 1st?

if i'm going to sell tickets back, that defeats the whole purpose. I think in general my goal is to limit my initial cash commitment. I might get shut out occassionally, but it seems like even sold out games (aside from maybe OD) have good seats available from secondary sources for a decent price. I just think $300 deposit/ticket when we don't know what the cost of a 20 pack will be for next year is a huge ask by the Brewers. If they do something significant to improve the team, i'll buy, otherwise, i'll take a wait and see approach until next March

I should add, that we plan to purchase the $48 Field Infield Box tickets. I saw in some other blogs that people in Field level tended to have better luck than the more popular 20 game packs in the logel level and terrace box. But based on the info above, i'm probably leaning towards NOT purchasing any pack. Probably attend all three MIN-MIL games, opening day, and probably 5-6 weekend games. Coming from a distance, the games I miss (and have to sell or eat) creatly outweigh any cost savings of a 9/20 pack versus getting 6-7 great games and paying top dollar for opening day. To be fair to the Brewers however.... they are averaging 38k fans per night, and offer a ton of marketing promotions in season. I can see how locking in business early is huge, but its not like there isn't significant demand for tickets.

razzzor- just sent you a PM. Thanks for the opportunity!

I'm a current nine pack holder, thinking about upgrading to a 20 pack in 2010. Just got a notice from the ticket office that if I put down a $300 deposit (per seat) for next year by August 5th, I am guaranteed that number of seats for a playoff strip for this year and next. For those with a 20 pack this year... 1) If we get a fans choice pack, can we pick the 20 games before single game tickets go on sale? 2) If we get the fans choice pack, can we pick any 20 games we want without restriction? 3) If we buy a ticket pack very early (pre-Novemberish), can we get a similar ticket to our 20 games for opening day (same section?) Clearly, the major bonus to getting a 20 pack is playoff tickets, and a guaranteed decent ticket for opening day. I can't remember if there was much of a ticket discount, but i don't recall getting much off. I'm learning towards NOT getting the 20 pack, as it seems to have few advantages (i'm willing to pay a higher price for playoff/opening day tickets), but i'm considering it because a good buddy wants to do this and i think we have a decent shot at the playoffs in 2010. Any feedback would be greatly appreciated! Also interested in knowing if most people plan on renewing their current ticket packages TBWS

Parra, Escobar, Carlos V, Billy Hall and Dillard for Halladay. Get it done. As many have noted, Toronto wants a SS badly, and seems willing to overpay. This is a perfect time for us to sell high on Escobar. If Weeks returns strong, we have a very solid team next year. Gamel will have more seasoning, and if we can find a decent #3-#4 pitcher we're in really good shape. Halladay keeps the fans packed in this year and we got for all the marbles in 2010 after resigning Hoffman. 2B Weeks, SS Hardy, RF Braun, 1B Fielder, 3B/LF McGehee, 3B/LF Gamel, CF Hart, C Lucroy Halladay/Gallardo/FA/Bush/Soup

Good Point, although it just occured to me President Bush's pitch was to open the stadium and not for the AS Game (i was at both). Maybe the Brewers should be kind enough to send the President a Fielder Jersey in anticipation of our winter visit to the Whitehouse (when we win the WS of course) Do we think Braunie will get a third AB? would love to have him hit the game winning HR