MJLiverock

That is the fear that critics of the no salary cap have in my mind. Baseball is losing popularity to other sports and some blame falls to the number of teams that have no chance to compete for anything. Baseball may devolve into being popular in New York, Chicago, L.A. and Boston if those teams are in the playoffs every year, get the best players year in and year out, and all the others have to hope for the once in 20 years that the stars align for them to succeed. It will take a few teams to fold before anything changes or if teams like the Pirates and Royals of the world don't fold at least move to bigger cities where the TV money or initial euphoria of a new team will carry them for a few years. Sort of a a reallocation of capital by moving to a better market. The one hit wonders of the world quickly fade to obscurity after their World Series or playoff runs. The Rockies aren't out signing great players now, they are shedding Fuentes and Holiday. The Marlins dropped into also rans, how long before the Rays are back to losing? The problem in comparing it all to capitalism is the limited markets for each team. The Brewers can be run perfectly and generate enough interest so that every person in WI watches the games on TV but it still won't generate as much money as a Yankees team attacting only 15% of the New York market. That is the reality of baseball's economics. The fear is without a revenue sharing in the long run the big markets can just bury the small markets and make them their own farm systems or minor leagues. As time goes by the gap gets larger and larger making the draft and building from within even more irrelevant to the mega markets. Their draft is the free agent crop from the farm system teams like the Brewers, etc. If the league devolves further and further the Yankees revenue won't dry up as long as people are interested in seeing them play, they can beat up everyone and in an extreme go 162-0 against the teams comprised of the blind and feeble as long as they generate enough interst in seeing them destroy all competition and win the trophy because people like a winner, who cares about the competition. Heck the Harlem Globetrotters sell tickets to a fixed game they always win but people are in it for the entertainment. The WWE sells plenty of entertainment tickets. The Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs can all just beat up the few remaining little guys sort of like Texas playing a !AA football team before the real game versus their bitter rival Oklahoma for all the marbles.

Yeah the argument that the Yankees spending is the wrong way and the Brewers building from within is the right way doesn't hold much water with me either. The Yankees missed the playoffs for the first time in years while the Brewer made the playoffs for the first time in years. The Yankees missing the playoffs by a slight bit while the last round of their huge dollar signings were in the final stages of their contracts is no big surprise. They also had injuries to Joba and Chien Ming Wang, who they counted on and were actually produced from within. Other guys like Kennedy just didn't live up to expectations for this transition year as their aging stars played out the final years of their contracts. Sure in 7 or 8 years the Yankees will be in the same situation and people will say see CC. and Tex aren't worth the money they are paid in the final year of the deal but if they have 3 rings in the the previous 7 years who cares about getting the most from each dollar spent in those last years. (The Yankees don't care about "overspending" because to them it isn't overspending and it doesn't hurt them. Carl Pavano's deal would have crippled the Brewers, it didn't even register a blip for the Yankees.) So in 6 or 7 years when the Yankees have a down year of winning 85 games and not making the playoffs, all their aging contracts will drop off and they wil go out and sign the next crop of superstars. There is no trophy for wins pro rated for salary level. It doesn't matter if fans think the Yankees paid to much for anyone if they can afford and they win they get the trophy or the chance to compete for the trophy in the playoffs. If you have a million dollars to buy a house in a neighborhood where all the houses cost $250,000 aren't you going to spend a little extra to get the very best and nicest house you can since it really doesn't matter if you spend $350,000 for it because it is still well within your means and budget. And as was stated the Yankees basically traded their first, second, and third round picks for Tex, CC, and A.J. While still retaining a 1st round pick for not signing a guy last year. I wonder if it was planned on the Yankees part, knowing the free agent crop this year and their money dropping off the books that hey why not just carry over a protected pick for 2009 if we don't sign this guy who we aren't that high on. This is the part that amazes me if true (I don't recall where their protected pick falls), the Yankees can sign all these guys and still have a better 1st round pick than the Brewers.

I think part of the optimism of last season's 85-90 win total at the beginning of the year rested with the rotation being Sheets, Cappy, Gallardo, Bush, Suppan with Parra as a back up 6th starter swing man. Expectations were still fairly high on Bush, a healhty Sheets, and Cappy being more like 2006 than 2007. Call it irrational exhuberance for offensive expectations if you will given Prince's 50 HR season, and Brauns' rookie year, JJ's break out, Weeks finish and Hart and Hall with more expectations. Expectations for Gagne and Turnbow were probably a little inflated as well. As we enter the 2009 season, people's expectations are tempered by the slight pull back in Prince's numbers, Hart regressing for half the season, Hall seriously regressing vs. RH pitching, Weeks inconsistencies and failure to really break out. The current pitching staff is probably below averge when you factor in Bullpen as well. 70 wins is probably a little pessimistic but 78-81 is my expectations unless some guys have career years. Kinda like the stock market, when things are going well everyone is happy and thinks they can only continue to go up, and when things are bad everyone wants to sell and thinks they will never go up again, hence the irrational exhuberance and irrational pessimism.

I think people are frustrated with the Tom H. blog announcement that Melvin had a LH OF bat ready and would be signed soon and the next thing we see is Trot Nixon. If it was going to be a washed up player to a minor league deal with hopes of maybe being the 5th outfielder/PH why even mention it and get people's hopes up? In my view it isn't that guys like this are bad deals it just seemed a little bit of a let down after making a point of saying a LH outfiedl bat is nearly signed.

It's not so much that people don't want anybody to be moved, it's that the last two trades Melvin has made, he gave up far too much value for what the Brewers got in return (Linebrink, Sabathia). This is one of those statement that pops up from time to time on here that I totally disagree with. Without Sabathia the Brewers don't even sniff the playoffs last year ending that horrific streak of 26 years. We no longer have to be reminded every year of the 26 year streak, the Brewers can actually claim to be a playoff contender when trying to attact free agents, or trade for guys with no trade clauses rather than be a doormat. Giving up LaPorta was well worth it, and getting the picks for Sabathia will help rebuild the farm system. The Brewers gave up nothing of note in the Linebrink trade to get a guy who was supposed to help a very beleagured bullpen in an attempt to make the playoffs and ended up with picks again for the farm system. Thatcher has been fairly mediocre to ineffective as a LOOGY in the best pitchers park in baseball, Garrison is out for a season with an arm injury making his futer very uncertain, and Inman is on his way to becoming a middle reliever if he gets past AA. I just don't see how the Brewers have given away far too much for what they got in return.

Looking at RyDogg's comparison for Gallardo versus Sheets makes me even more leery of the Brewers pitching staff. In Gallardo's brief career his numbers aren't as good as what Sheets put up last year and I just don't think it is reasonable to expect Gallardo to come off an injury and pitch his first full season in the majors and put up as good of numbers as Sheets did last year. Expecting 200 innnings is probably a stretch, Parra couldn't do it last year and he didn't miss most of the previous season with an injury. It is not impossible, I just don't see it as realistic. As far as the Brewers first half last year being good enough for a wild card lead, well, it was half. Many teams can put together a few good months but the marathon of baseball tries to weed those factors out. Suppan and Sheets probably pitched above expectation during the April May and June which offsets some the collapse excuses for September. Even with the decent start the Brewers had to scratch and claw to make their way into the playoffs, including the incredible efforts by Sabathia and Braun winning games at the end, along with a collapse of the Mets. The Mets have addressed their bullpen issues. The Brewers have not really improved anywhere on the team and became significantly worse in the starting rotation. As I showed even with Gallardo coming in the team still needs to address the roughly 24 starts of very good to elite pitching that is gone. I can see expecting some improvement from Parra and even Bush and tried to incorporate those innings. Offensively, can anyone expect more from Prince, Braun, Hardy, Cameron? They could but trying to be realistic leaves me thinking somewhere around where they were last year. Hart maybe, he was so up and down, it wasn't just September, his OBP was terrible after May, I just don't where to project him. I wouldn't be surprised to see Kendall regress a little, Weeks maybe just what he has been, a guy who hits .250/.350/.400/.750. Leaving 3B as the one area of major improvement possibility but you have to believe Hall is going to improve off of last year and that Mike Lamb is going to contribute more that what Hall/Branyon did last year. All this leads me to believe the offense will be about the same, some improvements in places, some remain the same, and some decline. I think the Bullpen will be same or worse, remember it was pretty much right in the middle last year and the worst of any playoff team. The rotation leads me to believe it will be 10-12 wins worse, putting the Brewers below .500 for the year. All this is if the Brewers remain as is going into the season. Signings of guys like Nixon, Coffey, Duffy, dont' really change it. I can accept a rebuilding year as long as Melvin doesn't try to an convince me he really thinks this team can sniff the playoffs as is. I don't know what the free agent picture looks like for next year but I would think with the glut of good players on the market this year and salaries outside of Sabathia being lower than expectations this would be a good year to look around. Or maybe players hate Milwaukee and it doesn't matter what Melvin offers in which case the team maybe doomed to have one good year and hope to shoot for the moon every 5 years based on what the farm system and produce and maybe one big trade.

I posted this a few months ago but reading this thread reminded me of it. Last year the starters threw 983 innings (just over 6 a game) but Sheets (198) and Sabathia (130) were significant. Bush threw 185 so if he can do that again, assume Gallardo goes 170 (coming off an injury and a big jump from 2008's limited duty, consistent with 2007), Parra gets 170 which would be a slight improvement over last year where he really looked wore down. That leaves 458 innings for Suppan and whoever else is used at the back of the rotation, about 47% of the innings for Suppan or worse pitchers unless someone is brought in or guys like McClung (if not in bullpen) will really have to improve. Even if Gallardo can put up Sheets like numbers, which is probably optimistic, that leaves about 160 innings of very good to elite pitching innings that will be replaced with much worse pitchers. 160 Innings of starting pitching at 6 2/3 a game is about 24 starts. The Brewers were 32-16 in games started by Sabathia and Sheets including an incredible 14-3 when CC started. Even replacing them with .500 level pitching is a loss of 8 games plus the mediocre bullpen of last year hasn't improved and may be worse with the loss of Torres. (Riske may be better but who really knows how he rebounds). If the pitchers aren't up to .500 caliber and the Brewers could easily be 10-12 games worse on just the pitching loss of these two.

I didn't say Dice K sucked, he was supposed to be unhittable and the question was how many Cy Young's he would win and so forth, but in his 372 innings he has a 3.72 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP, not horrible but not the utter domination he was supposed to bring. After Nomo's initial first two years he couldn't keep his ERA below 4.50 or his WHIP below 1.40 until his brief resurgance in 02/03 with the Dodgers. He was a 4th or 5th starter not anything special. Sasaki did pretty well until he got hurt and also decided he liked Japan better. Basically, I am just saying that I don't really care what Igawa's numbers were in Japan because these guys have a history of not living up to the billing. I just don't put much stock in them especially after seeing them get knocked around by ML hitters like Igawa. The Yankees who were desperate for pitching during stretches last year stilll didn't want to start him and sent him down, I think they saw he just wasn't going to be effective. I see no reason why the Brewers should waste the money on another roster filler pitcher.

Has any Japanese pitching import ever lived up to the billing and expectations built upon him by having awesome numbers in Japan? DiceK was supposed to be unhittable and ridiculous numbers like sub2.00 ERA's were projected by some of the nitwits at ESPN. He has been decent but no where near the super human machine with the unhittable Gyro ball he was billed as in Japan. I seem to remember another Japanese pitcher signed by the Yankees being called a fat toad by Steinbrenner after his weak career in the U.S. Hideo Nomo had some initial success but quickly faded away. I want no part of Igawa and his salary unless he is AAA depth and the Yankees are paying for it. There are already enougth LHers for the bullpen at the ML level at much cheaper values who are probably better pitchers.

I know it is early but I just don't see how the Brewers have improved their bullpen so far and it wasn't a strength last yea. Coupled with the very depleted starting pitching rotation at this point and the whole pitching outlook is pretty bleak as is. Last year the bullpen was pretty much the definition of middle of the road and was dead last in nearly ever statistical category when compared to the playoff teams.

The more I think about your idea Nate and Gobias I like it. I will admit that Dunn isn't my favorite player but he does remedy a number of problems the Brewers have, providing LH balance, high OBP. He doesn't do much for defense or batting average but that OPS is nice. Trading Hart for a decent young pitcher then helps with the loss of Sheets/Sabathia and still leave some room on the payroll. I just don't know if Dunn would take a 3/$36 deal but I don't think there are many pitchers out there worth a 3/$36, they seem to be either way above that or overpriced at that level. Getting some decent pitching for a guy like Hart might be possible while allowing the Brewers to hold onto Fielder for another year or two. I like Sonnanstine's control, or even a guy like Sanchez from the Giants with his K's and the Giants needing offense if they get Sabathia to go with Lincecum, Cain, etc. The Brewer outfiled defense would take a hit but it isnt like LF is a premium defensive position anyway.

I think that "burnt" taste on the Culver's burgers some have referenced is a result of the butter having a low burn point. As soon as I saw this thread I immediately thought of the McRibb, had one once, just once, and never again. One of my college roommates absolutely loved the McRibb and I could never understand it. The only restaurant chain I can think of I absolutely avoid is Applebees. I hate their food, it seems like frozen dinners warmed in a microwave and I hate their atomosphere, especially how the tables are always jammed around the bar.

The Buster Olney blog on ESPN links to the Arizona newspaper and cites the dowturn in the economy as the reason AZ didn't offer arby to Dunn but they did offer to Cruz and Hudson. I guess they really didn't want to pay Dunn $15 million for a year? The same Olney blog also mentions that the Phillies didn't offer arby to Burrell or the Dodger to Furcal, both of which surprised me a little as well.

That sounds about like my curveball. Of course my fastball tops out at about 72.

As I said, I was half kidding but am getting prepared for the onslaught of sports writers and ESPN talking about how Mussina deserves to get in but never mentioning Blyleven or Morris. I think it is just my cynical side coming through. It does beg the question of will 300 wins be a requirement for starting pitchers going forward since there will be so few of them in the future given how pitchers decisions are restricted by pitch counts, bullpen use, and skipping starts. When I looked at Mussina's stats above, the first person who came to mind was Blyleven. A guy who amassed some nice stats, was never the best in the league but consistently a good pitcher.

But Bert or Jack weren't Yankees. I am only half kidding.

I guess I don't really care who finished 2nd 3rd 7th, etc. Pujols is a fine choice for the award and 5 years from now no one will be arguing about where people finished after that. Its not like Pujols was a horrible choice and Tom is right that the award is not called the most outstanding statistical compiler, I wouldn't want the award reduced to that formula. A guy like Chipper Jones had a great season but missed a quarter of the games I probably wouldn' t vote for him either. A guy like Utley had a great start but his numbers did fall off from the torrid start, still great for a 2B but not MVP. Those are just two guys that subjective reasons elimate from winning the award.

I was a huge Simpsons fan from all the way back to the Tracy Ullman show days. But have to agree, I just don't care if I miss the show anymore. The last number of seasons seem lame and uninspired. I just think they have covered everything and have nothing left for the family to do. I was even disappointed in the movie, not enought time spent in Springfield and the great cast of characters available there. I watched the first season of 24 on DVD and really wasn't that impressed. I just found the situations way to improbably and illogical that I was yelling at the TV. How many stupid moves can one daughter make in a day? I haven't watched any of the other seasons but may give it a try because it should be a show I would like. I still like South Park, I think the show has gotten better and more interesting with their own take on current events and making fun of themselves. I tried one episode of My Own Worst Enemy, not surprised it was cancelled. I wish almost all the reality shows on TV would be cancelled starting with American Idol and Survivor but they won't because they are too profitable. I never liked Two and a Half Men so don't care about that one if it is gone. I am really having a hard time thinking of a show I regularly watch that needs to go. Maybe CSI, I know there are some cast changes coming and it is definately needed. The current plot line is starting to drag (I haven't watched the last 2 episodes yet). I guess I like shows about crime solving or science until they get all preachy or decide we need to know more about the love lives or love triangles, or personal demons of the main characters. The crime solving becomes secondary to the character stories and bam, it is a soap opera. That is usually what ends a show, the writers get backed into a corner and start coming up with ridiculous plot lines. Give me a show about cool science, crime solving, and leave it at that, wrap it up in an hour and move on to the next week. I'm glad the Shield is wrapping up, I hope they come up with a better ending than the Sopranos did. Battlestar Gallactica is another I am glad is wrapping up. The last season started to get too weird and philosophical making the show drag a little. Lost got a little hard to follow with the future timeline but they'll have me to the end because I gotta know what in the world this was all about.

I don't think Edmonds is a viable option at this point. He is broken down and likely won't play more than 100 games if he tried as an everyday fielder. His back problems are just too nagging. He put up a .343 OBP last year playing in 111 games. He played in 117 game sand 110 games in the 2 years prior to that. His last 3 year has seen his average OBP drop below .350 and given age and health I would expect that trend to continue. I suppose one could try and platoon him with Kapler to reduce his playing time and let him face righties exclusively where his OBP picks up more but I would still worry about his health making him unavailable for long stretches or even just sporadically when his back flares up. He is also not the defensive guy he once was.

That's the rub that gets me going too TLB. For all the hate of Cameron and people wanting someone else, I never seem to see who this magical player with high OBP, good defender, reliable daily, available to the Brewers guy is. David DeJesus is about the only possibility offered and we have no idea if KC wants to trade him or what they would want for him since they really have no incentive to get rid of him unless they get a lot in return. I think they realize there just aren't a lot of these guys around in CF.

Having a switch hitter would be a nice addition for the Brewers but what they really need is someone beside Fielder who can hit from the left side of the plate. Swisher carries career .338 OBP vs. RH pitching so like much of the Brewer lineup he really feasts on the LH pitchers. Cameron's career OBP vs. RH is .331 so not a whole lot different. Even just last year when Cameron was at .309 vs. RH, Swisher was only at .321. Given the hole it creates in CF I just don't see it as that much of a change. Slightly better OBP vs. RH pitching, similar power, weaker defense.

Well Pheralta and Michael Young were really the only other viable options in the AL and they really didn't stand out any more than Jeter. So despite my annoyance of anything Jeter he was a fine choice for the award. Morneau's numbers weren't that much less than Youkilis but Youkilis only played about 125 games or 400 AB's worth at 1b so I can see where voters picked Morneau just based on slightly less numbers but more of a true 1b positioning.

I'd rather offer Sheets 3/36 than Wood. Wood's elbow and injury history scare me more than Sheet's injury history.

I was kind of playing around with the inning totals on the starting staff and have to wonder how many inning Gallardo and Parra can be counted on for. Last year the starters threw 983 innings (just over 6 a game) but Sheets (198) and Sabathia (130) were significant. Bush threw 185 so if he can do that again, assume Gallardo goes 170 (coming off an injury and a big jump from 2008's limited duty, consistent with 2007), Parra gets 170 which would be a slight improvement over last year where he really looked wore down. That leaves 458 innings for Suppan and whoever else is used at the back of the rotation, about 47% of the innings for Suppan or worse pitchers unless someone is brought in or guys like McClung (if not in bullpen) will really have to improve. Even if Gallardo can put up Sheets like numbers, which is probably optimistic, that leaves about 160 innings of very good to elite pitching innings that will be replaced with much worse pitchers.

I would agree with the assesments/comments added after my last post, especially ender's comment that there just doesn't seem to be quite enough of the arms yet. A guy like Hoffman would be a great asset in comparison to Gagne. I think he brings that closer experience without the baggage that Gagne brought with the steroid clouds, injury history, and miserable time in Boston. Hoffman has been realtively healthy, drug suspicion free, and doesn't have a confidence busting resume like Gagne's recent history. I would feel better with one more arm that is reliable beyond Villy, a LOOGY, and possibly Riske. Hopefully a guy from the minors can step up and be that guy but I think Hoffman would be a very good fit. I wouldn't want to spend the huge dollars KRod is going to want and Wood's injury histoy and money wanted will probably be a no go. Fuentes is a little bit of a mystery to me but seems expensive or over rated not really sure on him. Other than that it seems it would be up to Doug to find a diamond in the rough and squeeze a good year out him a la Turnbow and other guys the Brewers have made into decent releivers for a year. These guys are just so hard to predict from year to year unless you pay big money for a known great one.