Fear The Chorizo

When was that CBO estimate made and what were the actual revenue streams? The article you linked is dated in early February 2019, before increased revenue streams from the economic growth the tax cuts created were actually realized. Throw the intentional recession COVID lockdown policies created and really the first year's revenue that can be looked at to see what impact those tax cuts had on the broader economy was 2021....and thus far in 2022 the reduced deficit in large part is due to those cuts enacted as well whether people will admit to it or not. Those cuts haven't been removed, right? So they are still impacting government revenue streams. Deficits in 2020 and 2021 were incredibly influenced by the trillions of dollars printed out in COVID relief - take those huge amounts off the government's books for 2020 and 2021 and those years' deficits would likely resemble what we are seeing so far in 2022. The problem with CBO scoring is that it is forced to use current economic conditions extrapolated over 10 years or however long they project and don't have a good way to adjust that scoring for either improved or diminished economic growth that makes those projections worthless after a few years.

The key takeaway for me in that article is its headline...I get why states value shifting people from welfare rolls they have a bigger part in funding to federal disability - but the fact there are jobs whose role is strictly to move people from one unit of government's dole to another just to achieve some cost savings on their own books speaks to how additional layers of bureaucracy across government lead to programs costing more tax dollars $ to deliver the same services, and that bureaucracy just fails to see the forest through the trees. Money could actually be saved and tax revenues for these programs at both the state and federal levels could increase if there was more emphasis/funding for programs whose goal is to get people who can work back to work by providing necessary training/offering relocation assistance/etc.

"trickle down" is a phrase opponents of lower taxes came up with to villify policies that promote capital investment as a way of creating more economic opportunities for people who instead want increased government spending as a way of propping up the ground floor. And no, there isn't a need to increase both taxes and slash spending due to the size of the national debt - they key is to rein in the deficit to stop adding to the debt by freezing or finding ways to decrease spending for an extended period of time so revenue from existing tax policy starts making that debt look smaller in the long run. The last round of tax cuts enacted by orange man bad were having a positive impact on increasing government revenues because the economy was thriving and expanding in 2019....then revenues actually spiked significantly in 2021 in large part to corporate tax revenues following that 2017 tax cut. However, we unfortunately didn't see the deficit/debt benefit from those increasing revenues because government COVID policies from both political parties blew it up by cratering business growth that was driving the increased tax revenue and also printing out trillions more in debt with no way to pay for it.

Exactly, and because of that a smaller percentage of the US is actually in the workforce and we've been skirting around a tipping point due to prolonged economic expansion for the past 10ish years - small decreases in the labor rate percentage are significant on a macro scale when the programs supported by payroll wage garnishments are already running at a loss. There needs to be a marked increase in labor participation of working-age adults in order to offset the group of baby boomers entering into retirement, otherwise the gov't programs (social security, medicaid/medicare, etc) don't have enough wage earners to sustain them and the whole thing implodes on itself. That and substantial reform of these programs that likely push back the age when people can start collecting from them and limiting the amount they receive. People on fixed incomes are getting crushed right now and it won't get better for them for a substantial amount of time. COVID forced alot of two parent working households back to 1 parent working households because the extended school shutdowns and forced restriction on activities, and to their credit many families realized the benefits of having one parent at home running the show outweighed the benefits of two wage earners chasing their tails running errands and shuttling kids between day cares/schools/after school activities. It's going to take awhile to unwind things economically to reach a new and sustaintable economic normal, and inflationary pressures are just amplifying the pain while we and the rest of the world start working through it. This turmoil is all happening as jobs are still plentiful and there are still a good number of working age people who aren't choosing to fill those jobs - whether that be due to a population wide skills gap or unwillingness to perform various tasks is beside the point. When the economy does start contracting jobs and people who are currently employed find themselves out of work, there's going to be much more economic desperation than their already is - even in the richest country on earth.

The US still drives the global economy, so when it sucks here it more or less is going to suck everywhere else with a few exceptions that for one reason or another can isolate themselves, and probably sucks even more in countries that don't produce their own energy...I believe California itself has a much higher GDP than the UK.

Oil prices also started falling in October of last year, so there was reason to believe that inflation would subside. Then Russia. In general, oil prices always slide in the fall of the year after peak demand most summers - so that really isn't a surprise or should have been viewed as a sign that inflation would actually not be a problem after printing trillions of dollars for the heck of it. IMO there shouldn't have been a stimulus in either 2021 or the ones they doled out in 2020 - we are reaping the after effects of all of that right now. The roadblocks set up for banks and other financial institutions to invest in expanded oil exploration and oil distribution infrastructure projects (pipelines/refining capacity, etc) coupled with essentially throwing a proverbial wet blanket on any and all new leases/drilling permits has been far more destructive to the global oil market than Russia invading Ukraine. It's not nearly as simple as yelling at oil companies to "pump faster or pump more". The brief unemployment rate increase a little more than a year ago was a product of the government finally pointing to a stop on the extended unemployment benefits and a glut of workers actually trying to rejoin the workforce. The US labor force still isn't close to where it was pre COVID in terms of the number of people actually working - despite that really low unemployment rate...it's because a smaller percentage of the country is actually in the workforce.

Things are going to get worse but at least we're being somewhat proactive this time which is unusual for the government. The last time the Fed jacked up rates 75 basis points was 1994, when Greenspan was roundly criticized by government officials for suppressing economic expansion. At the time, I think inflation was around 2.5-3.5%, and Greenspan indicated he initiated the rate hike to prevent what appeared to be a rebounding economy from overheating. The overall rate increases by Greenspan were relatively short-lived (about a year) and the Fed was able to keep inflation in check even after lowering the rates. Since May 2021, the monthly inflation rate has progressively increased from 5.0% in May 2021 to 8.6% in May 2022, with little sign of dramatically dropping in the coming months. This time around, what the Fed is doing is hardly proactive, and they are going to be forced to be punitively reactive to try put a stopper on the inflation spigot they've let run largely uncontrolled for more than a year. As for student loan repayments, my final loan payment will be made next billing cycle roughly 19 years after I graduated...so that definitely means that huge swaths of student loan debt are going to be forgiven in next 2-3 months.

If you've got minor injuries in your hands/wrists, you can struggle swinging a bat - just ask Rickie Weeks or Braun...but as an outfielder you can still run balls down and catch them. Hitting requires a totally different combination of pitch recognition and quick twitch athleticism to swing the bat compared to playing the outfield. Cain could still be a plus outfielder defensively, but his bat now completely negates that value to a roster as an everyday player.

By all forms of statistical analysis, JBJ is still terrible offensively even if he can now fly fighter jets with his improved vision. Also took a look at Binelas' stats - as a polished collegiate bat he's OPS'ing mid .800s in high A....solid but not spectacular. David Hamilton is OPS-ing mid 0.600's in AA as a 24 yr old. All in all, very pleased to have Renfroe in Milwaukee as a result of this trade....very, very pleased.

One thing to remember with Cain is we likely only saw him fully healthy for 1 season of that contract before he got old. Cain was among the NL league leaders in WAR in 2018 and on the fringe of MVP consideration that season. In 2019, Cain played in 148 games but really struggled with thumb and wrist injuries that undoubtedly diminished his performance at the plate...but he was out of this world defensively in center. Opting out of the 2020 season due to COVID didn't give us the opportunity to see if Cain had something left in the tank over year 3 of that contract after his hand/wrist healed, and the extended time away from baseball coupled with his age led to a very uneven and injury-marred 2021 season. 2022 confirmed the fact he "lost a step" at the plate and was essentially done. It's a shame his 2019 offensive decline that was largely influenced by nagging injuries coupled with the COVID opt out of 2020 took away what were probably two more solid seasons of offensive production that an otherwise healthy Cain could have contributed, making his overall 5 year contract look much better in terms of onfield value for dollars spent. However, as others have mentioned Cain didn't make his pro-rated 2020 salary after opting out, so this essentially boiled down to a 4 year contract in terms of money the Brewers spent.

It's important to continue investing/contributing to retirement accounts consistently through peaks and valleys of the market - eventually it does rebound and even if your account is losing money during a downturn, you're at least buying shares at discounted prices that will realize bigger gains as the market rebounds at some point. I shifted a pretty large chunk of my retirement account to essentially a money market stable value fund earlier this year when it was apparent both the bond and stock markets were going to suck for an extended period of time. Granted that fund is getting dinged by inflation like everything else, but its dollar value hasn't changed and at least it didn't get further crushed by being in a stock or bond market diving firmly into bear territory. I'm not going to try and be perfect predicting the true bottom and best time to shift that part of my portfolio back into stock funds, but the way things are shaping up economically I don't have an immediate sense of urgency to pull the trigger, either.

Well at least all those kids who have a terrible work ethic are now making $15+ an hour to do a terrible job, which helped make that meal you ordered cost about twice as much as it would have a few years ago....great times we're living in, to be sure. I've notice this recently with these places who got away with that level of filth when indoor dining wasn't open due to COVID restrictions and they just had prevent all the garbage from blowing out the drive thru window - now that the restaurants are largely opened back up it's like the staff have no concept on how to keep places clean.

I've been one of the bigger Crosby apologists, and even I'm at the point where I'd like to see new blood kicking FGs and bombing kickoffs out of the endzone with regularity - particularly when cutting Crosby would free up a bit more cap space either for extensions or bringing in a vet FA at other positions

Reminder that q1 gdp was already negative, so by the end of June we are probably already in a recession by its definition of 2 straight quarters of declining activity. Also, the monthly inflation rates are based on year over year comparisons of each month - since inflation really started ramping up after the last covid stimulus package printed a few trillion out of thin air again last summer, the inflation numbers will probably start dropping into the 3-4% range as early as when July gets reported simply because they have nowhere to go but down when they've been setting fresh 40 year highs...but even that is too much for this economy.

I want the Packers to move on from Crosby primarily because he can't consistently generate touchbacks on kickoffs - the fact he had a bad year in terms of FG% makes it even more warranted.

Wages aren't up anywhere close to actual inflation. I'd much rather get a 3% wage increase when the CPI/inflation is 2-4% compared to a 6% raise when inflation is 8-10%. Give it a month or two - there will still be "now hiring" signs left in the doors of businesses that close down. Most of those positions companies are looking to hire are the result of staff switching jobs and leaving openings, not due to economic expansion as we reached a post-pandemic equilibrium. Tech industries are already starting to announce layoffs. The labor participation rate remains on the low side historically, too. Not too many of us have been around long enough to experience a US economy that truly is experiencing stagflation, but unfortunately I think we're all about to find out how much it sucks.

Bad news: Inflation, gas prices That list is about to get a whole heckuva lot longer - they basically have to force a bad recession in order to get a handle on inflationary/supply chain and energy pressures coupled with deficit spending and dramatic low level wage hikes conducted over the past few years. Home sales are about to come to a screeching halt due to rising mortgage rates and while I don't see home values plummeting like 2009-2011 because housing market isn't going to be the reason for the incoming recession, removing that economic contribution is going to hurt many industries. Consumers are indeed still spending but are needing to burn through savings or even worse use run up credit card debt to cover basic needs - discretionary spending will take a big hit later this year, too. I saw that the average family is having to pay roughly $1,000 more per month to cover basic living expenses (gas, utilities, food, shelter) now than they were at the start of 2021....the exact figure varies from state to state, but it's just not sustainable to shift that much money to things without sacrificing/limiting other discretionary spending. The entertainment/restaurant industry is going to get hammered again once the initial pent up pandemic-related demand wears off this summer with trips that were pushed back the last few years. Specific to what the market will wind up doing, I think it's going to get worse before it gets better, because there really isn't a safe haven to turn to when you have high inflation, stumbling corporate profits, and yet to be resolved supply chain/energy production issues. In short, I feel very fortunate to be nowhere near retirement age right now...and even more fortunate to not already be on a fixed income retirement like my parents.

Look around the rest of the league - many teams have all or nothing offenses and as a whole, offensive production looks like MLB found a way to raise the pitchers mound without telling anybody. The leaguewide batting average in 2022 puts this rendition of offense into the late 1960s or dead ball era. The average hits per team per game during seasons 2020-2022 are the same - either dead ball era or late 1960s. Teams with good offenses are actually the outliers - I expect production to go up a bit now that summer is here across the league, but there are just 15 qualified hitters across all of MLB hitting over 0.300, and just 1 over 0.350. Specific to the Brewers, Rowdy is their OPS team leader at 0.780, 48th in the league...and he has been slumping of late. To not have a single hitter in the top 50 MLB hitters for OPS means you just aren't putting consistent pressure on opposing pitchers - the brewers are still 3rd in MLB in team HRs, they just aren't doing anything else offensively than occasionally popping one over the fence.

Staring at the endless line of Cub right handed hitters and remaining firmly planted on the bench. OF defense is putrid tonight

clown college bottom of the 6th...some tough plays but not making them just hangs this pitching staff out even more

Ashby is electric

When Ashby hits his spots he is downright filthy

I doubt he's a 0.900+ OPS hitter like he showed last season, but I also doubt he's a sub 0.600 OPS hitter like he's shown in roughly 1/5 of a season in 2022. O'Neill had a poor July last year similar to how he's started off this season - the Cards will be patient with him, particularly if part of his early season struggles is related to a right shoulder issue that now has him on the IL.

OBJ makes no sense for the Packers this year, because by the time he's ready to play all the rookie wideouts will have established some form of pecking order in the Packers' offense. If GB is going to sign another veteran FA wideout, the time to do so is now - I think there's just as important a role for a guy like Julio Jones to help get the young receivers feet wet and set an example for how to go about their craft in mini and training camps. With Tonyan likley out about the 1st half of next season, too, I just think bringing Jones or a guy like Fuller in gives them veteran receiver depth - odds are one of Watkins, Cobb, or Lazard gets dinged up in training camp or early in the year, and mixing in a 4th veteran wideout provides depth at that position while the youngsters figure out what they need to do to be successful at the NFL level.

Your initial comment on this specifically mentioned the Pirates and Orioles....two organizations that frankly are in perpetual rebuilding mode. So it actually is true more often than not - the Rays also get way too much credit for being the smartest guys in the baseball room. They make those moves out of financial necessity, and also a bunch of other moves that involve acquiring MLB-ready talent that may be undervalued by other organizations - and make so many of these moves that the failed attempts just get swept under the rug as part of how they have to do business. Last I checked, the number of world series banners flying around their dump of a stadium is still pretty low.