Fear The Chorizo

As bad as the cubs look, I fully expect them to win this weekend's series...because baseball I hope to be pleasantly surprised by late Sunday afternoon

If they take the plunge on Kimbrel/Keuchel they really run the risk of losing other core pieces of their roster a couple years down the road. They'll have a decent amount of payroll coming off the books after this season, but a big chunk of that will be offset by arbitration raises to most all of their core - guys like Baez, Bryant, Contreras, Schwarber, etc. I think a big reason Happ didn't make the club out of spring training is because they realized that they need to stagger when some of these guys are going to start getting paid if they plan to keep most of them around longterm. I doubt they throw caution to the wind this year, because they need this year's payroll where it is to keep from escalating luxury tax payments in future years that they already know will need to happen in order to retain their core. What's got to be incredibly alarming to them right now is despite the huge $ thrown at pitching that should by time for prospect development, their farm system continues to be largely empty in terms of young pitching that could give them much more payroll flexibility when guys like Lester, Chatwood, Yu, Hamels, etc finally come off the books. They have a few promising arms, but basically every system does - there's nobody just rocketing through the system that projects to be a MLB mainstay in the next couple seasons. If no options are in the system to replace the production when the veteran pitching contracts expire, they'll continue having to pay for it in free agency or continually ship away position player prospects for MLB arms. I think the Cubs really dropped the ball after both their 2016 WS and 2017 NLCS playoff runs by not trading a couple of their young players that are good, but not franchise cornerstones, at their peak value for pitching instead of throwing $ at veteran options. 1 of Schwarber or Happ should have been dealt after 2016, and they may have been able to get something significant for Addison Russell as well. In reality, Kimbrel makes tons of sense for their roster right now - their bullpen is a trainwreck and is already full of injuries. I just don't see them being able to afford it within their self-imposed budget restrictions unless they are willing trade away substantial MLB talent for nothing of value in return to free up payroll.

Is this supposed to be in blue? It looks like they are trying to give him starts at 2B, but his everyday position is 3B - same as Bryant. I guess this will help soften the blow after Bryant leaves via FA in a few offseasons? Bote had that dramatic grand slam to win a game against the Nats and maybe one other game winning HR, and he's a very nice defensive player...but he's probably the last young position player on their roster I'd be concerned about getting locked up long term with the Cubs. Good for Bote getting this type of deal - he's essentially a backup player years away from FA and could easily be the MLB player he was down the stretch last year where his production cratered. If he does become a good MLB everyday player the Cubs have a couple affordable option years they can tack on at the end of it. Bringing this back to the Brewers' optimism thread, I'll put my tinfoil hat on and say this Bote extension didn't come together until after Theo & company saw all these pre-free agency extensions and approached Bryant and Baez to see if they wanted to join the trend - and they promptly told them to pound sand.

Cubbies' bullpen doing what cubbies' bullpen does late...so much fun to watch!

The Brewers' current rotation is making a TOTAL of $11,038,800 dollars. Conversely, the Cubs' current rotation is making ~$85,500,000 dollars this year - plus they are stowing last year's failed FA starter acquisition (Chatwood) in their bullpen at $12,500,000. It is so fun to have good young pitching, with seemingly more coming in the pipeline!

I think another key point to consider with this contract is Acuna's own familial history with baseball, where he grew up watching his father toil away in the minors as a once promising international signee prospect who never was able to put all his physical gifts together into becoming a MLB player...Acuna, Sr. was basically Jose Reyes Jr.'s peer in terms of projectable talent when they first signed, but obviously one "made it" in a big way and one never quite did. Acuna, Jr. saw firsthand how fleeting the chance at making it and setting one's family up for life as a MLB star truly is with his father's career. Realizing that financial dream for his family had to have been a motivating factor. He also idolized Reyes growing up, and even though he was one of the game's elite for a few seasons and did benefit financially through free agency, he saw how quickly stardom can fade due to injury/age taking away the physical gifts too soon in a career. Reading through some of the quotes from Braves' brass and Acuna Jr. himself, he's going to be a Brave for life if he does become a superstar - and the Braves will take the Angels' Trout path and extend him with a mammoth deal well before he reaches those $17M option years in his late 20's.

Michael Brantley would have been a big help at a very low price for several years. Same goes for Cain departing in the Greinke trade. I personally think the Brewers lost more chances to make the playoffs than they gained by making those two trades, and I think what they're doing now reflects the fact that Mark A learned his lesson (he has even said this, in so many words). If it's a last-gasp effort to win a title, by all means pull out all the stops, but they were doing this stuff when they had a great young core and a chance to have sustainable success. They weren't terrible trades or anything, but I think they were kind of short-sighted. Now we don't see them giving up much value for short-term patches. Moustakas, Schoop, Claudio? Fine. But they aren't giving away excessive surplus value for short-term rentals anymore, and I'm very glad for that. The Yelich deal is exactly the type of opportunity you hold out for. If C.C., Greinke, and Marcum weren't acquired at those points, the Brewers aren't playoff teams in 2008 or 2011. I disagree that the Brewers would have somehow made the playoffs more frequently during that stretch by retaining Brantley, LaPorta, Zach Jackson, Rob Bryson, Brett Lawrie, Escobar, Cain, Jeffress, and Odorizzi instead of giving their core of young MLB talent the one thing it desperately needed at the time to give them a shot at the postseason - quality to ace-caliber starting pitching. The fact is, those teams weren't nearly as deep and talented as what Stearns has put together currently - and the prospects they gave up for getting those two postseason berths were well worth giving up. Had they not acquired those starters, 2018 could have easily been the sole postseason berth in this entire stretch.

When your team is off to a 5-1 start and the back half of the night's game thread devolves into comparing your opponent's crowd size to your own team's from decades earlier, you know there's some grasping at straws to look for things to be upset about or debate! What is this, an inauguration??

If they stay healthy, that Phils squad is crazy good and is going to just mash in that bandbox ballpark this summer.

Generally agreed, yet in Acuna's situation, if he truly proves to be a generational talent there's no doubt in my mind that he could sign a massive FA deal when he is 30 that winds up blowing the $300M 10+ year deals we are talking about now out of the water. Ten years from now $40M AAV contracts will be attainable. Now, if he winds up not being that great or injuries cost him the chance to be great, he still makes a massive amount of money with the deal he just signed after playing roughly 2/3 of 1 mlb season.

Who would you rather have pitch in this spot right now? Well the question is why didnt he pitch the 8th against the heart of the order? I guess Guerra was looking pretty good, but last year he was more of a "relief ace" who was used in the most important situation rather than just waiting for the 9th regardless of the situation. I guess the main difference was Knebel/JJ available to be the closer last year 2 run lead in the 8th as well, plus Hader did pitch yesterday and as others have pointed out there isn't anyone else behind him I'd feel better closing out the game. On full rest maybe this is the type of game you give hader the last 6 outs - but the brewers need other pen arms to take larger roles until JJ hopefully gets back into the fold.

Who would you rather have pitch in this spot right now?

By the math, a 60 percent chance at $300 million is worth $180 million. I can see why someone would sign the deal. But it's still worth much less than he could earn taking the other route. The Braves are delighted to do this. Yes, but in reality it's a 60 percent chance at 300 mil in 5 years, or a 40 percent chance of a total way, way lower than 100 million...plus taking that gamble means he would make substantially less than what he will earn now for the next 3-4 seasons

Am I reading this right, that Acuna's $100M extension is for 8 seasons that goes through the 2026 season? Then, the Braves have two additional option years for 2027 and 2028 at $17M per, or if they want they would pay Acuna $10M to opt out of those options? If that's the case, this $100M extension only extends Acuna past what would have been his first two free agent seasons (2025 and 2026) - the additional two options years make it a 10yr, $134M commitment. It's crazy to think that even after 10 more seasons, Acuna will still only be 30-31 years old, and likely in a position for another significant payday if the Braves don't restructure before then. For perspective, Manny Machado will have earned $124M as a player his first 9 years in the majors after the 2021 season ends - that includes the first three seasons of the deal he just signed with the Padres making $30M a season through 2021. Machado will make much more than Acuna will during years 7-11 of their respective careers (especially if Acuna "only" makes $34M total during his 2027 and 2028 seasons assuming the Braves string it all the way out through those options) - however Acuna has received his guaranteed windfall much earlier in his career and could easily land another huge deal down the road.

Where Machado, Harper, and Trout were in their careers when they signed these FA contracts/extensions and where Acuna is are not comparable. At all. And Acuna's deal actually pays him much more than any of what those players earned over their initial few big league seasons when they were making ~$550K, too.

I think he gets the best of both worlds with this deal - he essentially maximizes his earning potential during the next 5 seasons, and has guaranteed himself life-changing money. If he becomes a superstar, there's every reason to believe he'll be approached by the Braves to sign an extension that keeps him a Brave for life and pays him funny money well before he turns 30. You've got to remember, Acuna was still probably 2 full offseasons away from getting more than league minimum via his 1st of four more arbitration years. I get betting on yourself, but he went from essentially guaranteeing himself $1-2M dollars to ~$75M after one season in the bigs - these figures are stipulating that he'd suffer an unfortunate career-threatening/limiting injury sometime over the next few seasons that would lead to significantly reduced earning capacity and the Braves not being open to those two $17M options at the end of this extension. Edit - obvious that the contract details are still being sorted out, as multiple sites are showing different things and the numbers I used above may be off - let's see what the actual contract gives him after he puts pen to paper... Despite his promising rookie campaign, Acuna had an injury-plagued year in 2018, which included some scares with his knee and back, and that HBP against Urena and the Marlins during his HR streak. Financial security for a player in his position has significant value, and I'm sure those on-field injury scares impacted his camp's decision to sign something like this deal.

Opening day payroll went down for the second year in a row, while revenues increased (Or they did in 2017, we don't know about 2018 yet I don't think). As long as that keeps happening this will go on. The top tier of players were never the issue, Harper and Machado were always going to get paid. If I recall that figure was based largely off signing bonus accounting for a handful of the game's most expensive contracts (Trout, Scherzer, Kershaw, Harper, Machado, and a couple others). That accounting alone decreased average player salaries $82K for 2019, making its payroll decrease compared to 2018 $36K. If not for that accounting, the average MLB salary would have risen almost $50K from 2018-2019.

Fantastic deal, both for Acuna and the Braves - he'll get another shot at a FA deal or contract extension by the time he's 30. He isn't sacrificing any of his earning potential and just guaranteed himself 9 figures to play baseball as a 21-yr old.

I think replacing one year of arbitration with a restricted free agency year makes alot of sense - provided the luxury tax system that has actually deterred huge market teams from spending like crazy remains in tact. I think that setup would give alot of the good/not great players a chance at a solid payday if a different team has a roster hole they ideally fit, without them having to wait until FA and be in the 2nd/3rd tier at their position and have to wait out the superstars to get their contracts before teams make them serious offers. Having it be restricted allows for the parent club to match an offer to keep a guy for one more year - to prevent shenanigans with guaranteed deals and retain organizational flexibility, there would need to be limits on # years and structuring of any restricted FA contract offers, but I'm sure they could sort it out. This strategy would also incentivize getting homegrown superstars extended past their restricted FA period, paying them much more, much earlier in their careers.

Not every MLB player that has a 6+ year big league career deserves a golden parachute deal at the end of it...there's always younger, more talented players striving to get to the big leagues and take their job. That's just the reality - and good to marginal MLB veterans need to strike when the iron's hot and realize UFA isn't currently what it's historically been perceived to be for guys of their caliber. The system as currently constructed is adjusting towards trying to pay players more $ at a younger age, regardless of how soon they break into the major leagues - using the Moose example is curious because of who his agent is, again... The approach of taking arbitration all the way to free agency is not the way to maximize every player's earning potential -and it actually seems to be a bad idea for even the most talented players, particularly if their parent club has at least modestly deep financial pockets

The Players Union is really sick of proven, veteran guys not getting "taken care of." Craig Kimbrel has made almost $60M as a pitcher over his career, which includes his initial 4 year, $42 Million dollar contract as he reached his initial FA period - this dude's been taken care of, and now he's looking for his last, best bite of the apple. Dallas Keuchel has earned almost $32M as a pitcher prior to his initial FA period, which his Agent (Boras) is famous for trying to get as much as possible no matter what the market is. I'm guessing any shot he would've had at signing an initial contract extension after winning the Cy Young a few years ago was quashed in-house by how Boras operates. Even with that being said, he'd have been signed months ago had his contract demands been anywhere near what his actual market value is. I'm sure Boras was hoping the teams who missed out on signing Harper and Machado would've immediately pivoted and thrown big dollars at Keuchel. Unfortunately for him the biggest loser was the White Sox, who really don't have a roster that makes sense to add a veteran FA starter two after missing out on Machado. The Braves make a ton of sense for Keuchel, which is where I think he'll wind up (Padres also a darkhorse). I'd be very surprised if it winds up being a substantial contract. If I'm him, I try to maximize total dollars earned by getting more years at a lower AAV - not try to sign a 1 or 2 year deal at high AAV with hopes of getting a better contract in his next free agency period. both of these guys have made a fortune playing baseball - the players' union better find better examples of veteran guys reaching free agency the first time after making peanuts via arbitration and basically getting nothing/minor league deal offers when their market is decidedly higher. The reason these two remain unsigned is their perceived value is nowhere near how the market views them.

People think our pitching staff has issues. This was obvious going into the year too. Their bullpen isnt good. Strop and Cishek are solid but that is it. Their rotation is old and lacks depth. Darvish looks like a huge question mark. Hamels wasn't good today and banking on him being the Hamels of old seems unlikely. I think a lot of people know the names of the Cubs pitchers so they assume they are better than they really are. On the other hand man can that team hit. They can hit against the rangers...remember they have largely the same lineup that couldn't score during exteden stretches last year - they are a feast or famine offense

Yay baseball!

Has there actually been any news to report on this guy over the past few weeks that isn't message board speculation? Or is Keuchel going to pitch simulated games this year at the Boras Academy for free while his agent puts out the "Prestige" message?

That was an awesome way to attack that Goldschmidt AB by Woodruff