Fear The Chorizo

I always look at this debate through the lens of how dominant players were during their eras. It's a different game, but then again there's nobody in today's game hitting more home runs per season than the totals of competing TEAMS, like Ruth did several times during his career. Back in Ruth's era there just wasn't the nationwide, let alone world wide exposure to the game where you knew the most talented players were always found and brought to MLB - so despite having many fewer MLB teams, one has to question the overall level of competition he faced on a consistent basis. To me, today's era of travel teams, personal coaches, and scouting services are mostly just another thing parents can spend $ on, but their best contribution to baseball is how much more exposure opportunities they give kids - particularly from areas of the country that historically are difficult to get noticed. There's alot to be said about God-given talent being timeless and transferable across different eras. Ruth obviously wasn't a gym rat, but he was the most talented player in his era by such a large margin that nobody since has even come close to equaling. The most accurate comparison may be taking roided up Bonds or prime ARod and having them play every day against DIII college baseball-level competition. Some of that is just how talented Ruth was during his era - some of that is the other factors that probably diluted the overall talent base MLB used.

Early in his career, Rivera did some of his best postseason relief work as a setup guy when the Yankees had wettland closing games. And the postseason games he blew weren't on October HRs...they were basically ducksnorts and shattered bats that found holes. With all those new York writers/voters, they'll probably have to split the HOF into two wings soon. The hall of fame in its current gift shop and the hall of Jeter that will cover the rest of the venue

The only thing I can figure is that they feel his progression in 2018 was a fluke. Hopefully he continues to build on it in San Antonio this year, along with cleaning up his K issues and maybe getting that average and OBP up a bit. When you really look at Ray's minor league opportunities, one can easily argue that his 2016-2017 seasons were more than likely the fluke compared to 2018. Drafted in summer 2016, Ray's 1st minor league assignment later that year came at High A+ Brevard County - not Rookie level Helena, not low A Wisconsin. Brevard County is an offensive graveyard, and that was Ray's 1st taste of professional level baseball. Then he hurts his knee in fall instructionals and has to spend his first full offseason rehabbing a meniscus tear surgery. He then repeats A+ to get a full season there, this time with Carolina, and has what we all can consider to be a poor offensive year. However, by all accounts he was still impacted by recovering from that knee injury. After actually getting a full and healthy offseason to work on his craft prior to the 2018 season, Ray almost puts up a 30/30 season during his 1st stint in AA and is the Southern League player of the year - yet now he's outside the top 100 prospects when prior to the 2017 season following a knee surgery and a rough 2016 pro start he was easily in the top 50? Hi K rate has hovered around 30% the past two seasons, which needs to drop a bit but in reality not too much for him to be a quality major leaguer offensively if he maintains the level of pop in his bat that he showed in 2018. I'm eager to see what Ray can do in a hitter-friendly league, particularly with it being AAA.

About 1 year ago he was still in the conversation for going 1st overall in last June's draft. He profiles as yelich did at the plate without as much power, and he will be a mlb ss. I think he is underrated, actually. That is some serious helium for Hiura at no. 6, can't wait to lock up all the threads about 2b options once he gets to milwaukee! 1 thing to remember about Ray's and other AA prospects numbers from 2018 - the southern league is full of pitcher friendly parks and Biloxi might be one of the most pitcher friendly. The Shucks '145 team HR is the most in the southern league since at least 2005. I expect Ray to remind more of us why he was a top 5 pick this year in San Antonio

For all the angst about trading away the guy as part of the package for Parra, Banda will be lucky to see the big leagues for an extended period before he turns 26 - isn't he recovering from TJ surgery completed this past June that probably has him out all of next year? Had the Brewers kept him, Banda probably wouldn't have developed fast enough to even get on a 40 man roster before they would have traded him or watched him get Rule 5'd. Parra then netted Zach Davies, whom at this point Banda will probably be fortunate to have a MLB career remotely similar to.

Yeah, it's seriously ridiculous. They'll probably have 11-12 in the top 100, and it won't be a Cubs/Yankees situation...all will truly be deserving. Add that to a number of young guys already at the MLB level. I'm honestly a bit surprised they didn't find a way to make a big FA add, they could crank up and start working towards legit contending as soon as this year. At this point the Padres' system should be ridiculous - they've been essentially drafting in the top 5 forever and have been doing nothing but trading away anyone worth anything at the MLB level. Yet they still signed Hosmer to that stupid deal last winter. System-wise, they are where the Royals were right after the Greinke trade to the Brewers in terms of having a ton of potential impact players in their system. It bears remembering that it took the Royals trading away a handful of those guys to fill out a pitching staff and eventually win a title, all before it slowly crumbled apart again because many of those ballyhooed prospects never became perennial MLB all stars.

It probably depends on how various ranking systems classify prospects. I've felt for quite a while that there won't be 5 players ranked ahead of him on these lists who aren't likely to open 2019 with their big league clubs. Guys like Jimenez, Vlad Jr., etc will still be considered prospects but should be in Opening Day starting lineups - if they aren't it's due only to egregious service time manipulation. I'd be shocked if Hiura falls outside of the top 15 prospects headed into Spring Training.

I know it's still the Reds but they've had a pretty darn aggressive offseason thus far. No word on whether they actually signed him to an extension or not, right? Barring them throwing an obscene amount of money Gray's way, this move gives them some rotation stability It might wind up to just reshuffling the deck chairs on a listless ship, but IMO the 2018 NL Central cellar dwellar Reds have gotten quite a bit better this winter. This division is going to be a grind in 2019.

[sarcasm]Then where would Aguilar play?[/sarcasm] San Antonio

Except that in this situation, it's not - Johnson was Gray's coach for 3 years while at Vandy and was instrumental in recruiting him there, and it's obvious they've formed a longlasting relationship. What Gray was doing early in his career with Oakland has a high likelihood of being built on the foundation he had developing as a collegiate pitcher with Johnson. Gray essentially pitched one minor league season across a few calendar years in Oakland's system, so it's not like he went through an extended development period under other minor league instruction before he became the pitcher he was a few years ago. Seems likely that the Reds are his landing spot, as there is rumors swirling that the Reds are actually trying to get him signed to a contract extension before finalizing the trade. Whether an extension happens probably impacts the return the Reds want to send NY.

If by "big part of me" you mean "every fiber of my being", then I concur. Suck it Manny. I think the players have a legit gripe though. They should be getting more of the revenue. To me the solution is obvious - pay them more when they're young and are actually worth it. It's hard to argue that owners should go back to handing out huge free agent deals again, as that would often put their teams at a competitive disadvantage. But you can't just let them pocket the extra money; it should go to the players who are earning it. The young guys are getting way underpaid. True, but it's a two way street - under the current system, younger players should be more open to buying out a few initial FA years in order to get a large longterm extension earlier in their careers. Some power agents (Boras, et. al) make it a point to never allow their best clients to sacrifice how soon they reach free agency in order to get an extension with their 1st ballclub. Not having that option on the table probably cost Harper from having a current deal paying him $30M plus similar to Trout, had they approached the Nationals after his MVP season looking for an extension. A Boras client like Bryant is really over a barrel - he's gotten record pre arb and 1st year arbitration contracts, but he won't actually reach free agency until he is 30 in 2022. He was intentionally held in the minors in order to maximize their amount of control - now there are questions about his shoulder that sapped him of power most of last year, which will probably carry over to his FA year and coupled with his eventual age cost him a mega deal. I found it funny that Longoria was criticizing the system with the big name FA's still unsigned, when he essentially signed a longterm extension that bought out a few FA years the moment he debuted in MLB with the Rays. IMO, premium collegiate draftees who rocket through the minors and are almost instant all-stars (Longoria, Braun, Bryant, Tulo, Verlander, etc) fare much better in terms of career earnings if they sign extensions early on rather than playing through 6 years of team control/arbitration with the hopes of cashing in around their 30th birthday. That was true close to a decade ago when guys like Longoria, Braun, and Tulo all signed these types of deals, and it's even more true now. For guys picked from HS that are likely generational talents (Trout, Harper, Machado, Kershaw, etc.), it's a tougher call, but I think it's almost always better in a world of guaranteed contracts to take as much money as you can, as soon as you can.

If Gray had terrible numbers pitching at home in Yankee Stadium, he'll be thrilled to pitch half his games during his FA year at Great American Bandbox Ballpark, too. Plus, he'll get to pitch a good number of road games against darn good NL Central clubs, two of which (Brewers/Cubs) play in pretty hitter-friendly places. I can see where this trade makes sense for the Reds given the pitching coach connection and their current dearth of MLB-caliber starting pitching - but even the Reds should be careful in what they actually need to trade away for Gray at this point.

Or we shift Arcia to 2b for 1 season, assuming any brewer deal to Machado is for 1 year and high dollars. With all the shifting, they would essentially be interchangeable middle infielders, with arcia shifting to the key defensive spots

Don't be so certain of Bryant being a bounceback certainty...his shoulder is a big ? mark healthwise until he proves it isn't a lingering concern.

I also don't buy into "they don't face LH starters very often." I don't know where/how to find the info but I would guess they faced LH starter at least 40 games last year. That's just my guess of course, could be wrong. Particularly after last year's trade deadline and down the stretch, it seemed like the Brewers were facing tons of lefty starters. In the NLCS the only righty they faced was Buehler (Ryu twice, Hill, Kershaw twice). The Cubs seemingly shuffle all their lefty starters against the Brewers, too. This happened in the 2nd half because their key RH bats that were supposed to take advantage of lefties struggled. Overall, they'll face more righty starters than lefties over the regular season, but I think it should remain a priority to find a RH hitter who can mash lefty pitching and has the ability to play a few IF positions before Opening Day - assuming Hiura isn't breaking camp with the club.

With their signing of Ottavino today, it's going to happen - they have no room on their 40 man until Gray is traded away. Because of that, it wouldn't surprise me if Gray is dealt for the prospect equivalent of a bag of baseballs provided the team he's headed to is ok with picking up all of his salary. There may be a bunch of teams sort of kicking the tires on acquiring him, but I'd doubt the bidding war gets into the discussion of anything close to a top 100 prospect headed back to the Yankees - Cashman is over a barrel on this one.

If those 2 (Walker and Moose) are seriously considered being added, who do they replace on the current expected 25 man gameday roster in terms of position players? This isn't September callup time where the Brewers can carry a bloated roster of pinch hitters and pitching options - I can see them making 1 addition that hits right handed and can play both 2b and 3b to go into 2019 - they don't have room to add 2. To me, even with his warts, the target is probably Harrison considering he can probably be signed to a shorter term deal at a team-friendly price. And if they can't find a clear upgrade to what they currently have at those positions on the 40 man, then I'd prefer they focus on acquiring a quality SP first and see how things shake out at 2B with in-house options and Hiura.

measured and reserved marks on Nelson, for sure - The whole going through a "normal" throwing program in the offseason is a good sign, but the maybe/maybe not tone of that quote probably has to do with uncertainty of how Nelson will react to ramping up the level of effort to being able to pitch in a MLB game. IIRC, Nelson flirted with throwing a bit from a mound but never reached the point of simulated games last year while rehabbing. We'll know early on in Spring Training if Nelson has a shot to break camp with the MLB club, or if he remains in limbo. I think if a significant trade for a starter happens, it's more likely that Brewers' brass is more pessimistic on Nelson than what that quote even indicated. I remain optimistic, if only because it'd be damn shame if Nelson's pitching career goes by the wayside just after he put it all together - and all because of a bad slide after too big of a turn around 1B.

Aguilar carried the offense during the 1st half when the likes of Yelich/Braun/Cain/Thames all missed time to random injuries and the bottom half of the lineup was atrocious. He was in the MVP discussion by the end of June and heading into the AS Break. Him sustaining that level of production wasn't going to happen. His second half was meh, it wasn't awful - I think it was amplified by his position in the batting order moreso than anything - because he could have had just a monster year if he got hot one more stretch in September with Cain and Yelich constantly on base in front of him and Braun getting hot. If he's playing everyday, I'd like to see him in the 5 hole and move Shaw into the cleanup spot. In a perfect world you've got a healthy Thames against righties and a healthy Aguilar against lefties, while they take turns serving as a primary bat off the bench - I'm not sure there are enough roster spaces for that to happen, though

I tend to agree here - and would actually prefer that rotation spot manned by Miley for roughly 1/2 the 2018 season be filled by none other than Jimmy Nelson. We talk about having a plethora of pitching options and are eager to see how the flexibility with bullpenning and versatile multi-inning relievers will be employed...the most difficult aspect of this is that there's a numbers crunch even now without adding a pitcher via free agency. I think if there's any SP added to this roster, it will be via trade and will include one or more of their current arms on the 40 man headed out of town. We remember Miley being solid down the stretch, but it's easy to forget he missed a ton of time in 2018, too. He only pitched 80 innings in the regular season, Chase gave them ~160 despite basically being shut down the last few weeks of the year. Nelson Chacin Anderson Davies Burnes Peralta Woodruff Guerra That's 8 pitchers with MLB-bonafides to serve as rotation options/multi inning "opener"-type long relievers. I'd like to change at least 1 or 2 of those options out with lefties - I'd be ok with Miley, but I hesitate at having to sign him knowing that another move would need to get done to create roster space, which would most likely be eating a player's salary after cutting them (Albers), trading away a decent pitcher while still eating salary (Anderson, Davies), or holding another young pitcher down in AAA that doesn't deserved to be down there (Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta). I'd be ok with trading Anderson or Davies, even open with trading one of the young righties, if it meant bringing back a quality lefty or stud righty starter.

You forget that all teams have net operating costs too. Coaches salaries are not included in payroll. Cost of running Miller Park, travel costs, hotel costs, insurance costs, doctors, trainers, club house personal, etc.... All these and many more add up quickly and all come off the bottom line and affect net profits. From what I know, the Green Bay Packers are among the only teams to report their actual profits among major sports franchises because they are technically publicly owned. In 2017, they saw a record revenue stream of $454M, but to make that kind of $ their expenses also set a record for themselves at $421M. That's roughly an 8% net profit - pretty blah in the business world, particularly when that's after year of record revenue. So "Wisconsin's team", who is among the most popular sports franchises in the country and gets the benefit of NFL league-wide revenue sharing (including monster TV money), managed to make just $33 million dollars in 2017. I have no doubt the Brewers are operated in a profitable way - but I think their margin for going from profitable to break/even - losing money is much smaller than what many assume. Surely their franchise value appreciated, but you can't draw from that to add a stud starting pitcher. If you look at any business, people get worried when their profit margins are too low - well before a company starts losing money year over year. If the Brewers can carry a bloated payroll beyond their historical norms the next few years, it's because they've had very low payrolls in 2016-2017 and earmarked some of those profits to use on player salaries for what they hoped was going to be their window to contend.

This year's draft has been widely speculated to be low on impact high school talent, with its strength being depth in good high floor/moderate ceiling college hitters. Translation: the draft class is probably poor

Not really out of nowhere considering his 2017, but the shoulder injury has basically rendered Jimmy Nelson an afterthought - I think he's going to have a great 2019 and be the rotation anchor that can consistently be relied upon to get 6+IP, 18+outs, whatever the heck you want to gauge from a starting pitcher, and he'll allow for the bullpen-heavy approach to be even more effective by giving relievers rest days every 5 games when he takes the bump.

I do like that Harrison can also play 3B...not that it would be hard platoons, but adding Harrison gives the Brewers a ton of flexibility playing righty/lefty matchups and being a versatile bench option - particularly if Hiura sets the world on fire in AAA and fully deserves to be in Milwaukee later this season. Plus, I think he can easily be signeed to a 1 year deal, while Marwin is going to probably be a 3-4 year contract.

With the recent signing of Grandal, the current Brewers' 40 man is just about filled up - gotta think any more FA or trade additions that would be destined for the Opening Day 25 man will need to have a corresponding trade to open up space on the roster. There are some names on the 40 man that aren't necessarily dead weight, but they'd hurt to lose for nothing in return. Keep in mind guys like Ray are not on the 40 man, so a trade including Ray doesn't create a spot on the roster for the acquired player. They've got 4 guys on the 40 man who could play 2nd, 5 if you count Shaw and 6 if you include Arcia...That's without Hiura currently being on that roster. I think the 2019 2B answer has a good likelihood of being a bunch of guys plugged into situations where they have favorable matchups as the season wears on. Marwin or Harrison do make alot of sense, too - but the money has to be right.