Fear The Chorizo

He's already acquired significant upgrade from last year's production at 2B in the form of Spangenberg even if he just lets him play everyday and against lefties at that position. It's not a glitzy acquisition, but then again Chacin wasn't last offseason either. Schoop was supposed to be the answer there this year, but he flopped and Stearns cut ties to avoid paying ~$10M for a boom or bust type year from him. I can see the possibility of another 1 year deal with Moose at 3rd if he takes a 1 year contract again, but that starts yo-yoing Shaw around the diamond more than he'd probably like. Adding a guy like Harrison on a 1-yr deal makes some sense for the current roster, because he can play both 2nd and 3rd and would be a decent platoon mate for both Spangenberg and Shaw - Perez can only cover one of those spots against LH pitching himself. Plus, Harrison can probably be added at a contract amount that would still let them add some more payroll with adding another quality SP if they are so inclined. Gonzalez is also very intriguing for the same reasons as Harrison with even more positional flexibility, but he's going to command a multi-year deal that should be pretty pricey - when you really look at it, Harrison and Gonzalez are actually similar players aside from Gonzalez being a switch hitter. The biggest longterm upgrade at 2B is going to be Hiura - in the meantime I think adding Harrison to this roster would be another incremental upgrade. Gonzalez would probably be my preferred option, but probably not at the pricetag and # of years guaranteed he'll wind up getting. It's not like if Harrison is acquired that he's going to be slotted in the #3 hole of this lineup everyday.

I think it benefits the game overall to have players reach free agency towards the front half of their prime years, not the latter half or even past them. Guaranteed contracts can stay, but if players are looking for higher AAV they need to be willing to take a reduction in overall contract length, or incorporate more team options with palatable buyout clauses for both sides. For example, Pujols' 10 year deal at ~$30M in AAV could have had a team or mutual option structure into it after 5 years, where if a team wanted to cut ties and regain a little flexibility they could buy Pujols out for $60 million - that would save the Angels ~$90 Million over the next 5 years and still have allowed Pujols to try and get a lesser deal with a different team around his age 35 season after getting a windfall payment worth 2 years' salary. IMO, there definitely needs to be something done in terms of how long teams can control players before they reach free agency. The service clocks need to be reduced by at least 1 year, and concurrently I think they need to take a long look at adjusting how long teams can control prospects drafted out of college or signed at that early 20's age range in the minors before they need to be added to 40 man rosters. Would there need to be some sort of additional revenue sharing or salary cap ceiling/floor combination to make this work? Probably - and overall I think that would benefit the players and fan interest by keeping all 30 clubs at least in the mix to continually add payroll or restructure MLB rosters, even if they are in a rebuilding mode. I also think that agents really should rethink advising their very best clients to take the full arbitration path in order to become an unrestricted FA as soon as possible - 6 years is a long time. If players were more willing to sign an extension-type deal at the start of their prime (typically near the beginning of salary arbitration) and buy out a few years of free agency, they are much more likely to make more money overall in their career. Braun is an example of that, and despite concerns around here for his declining productivity with his contract, he's not an albatross around the neck of the Brewers and he's done very well for himself. Mike Trout's current contract setup is another great example. Harper could be making Trout money right now had he and Boras tried to get an extension done with the Nats after his MVP season a few years ago, and he'd still be able to become an UFA if he wanted well before 30. Kris Bryant, same thing - now he's got potentially chronic shoulder problems that will likely prevent him from getting crazy money over a super long contract, and he's still got 3 full seasons before he reaches free agency. The final side of this is if revenues are exploding and the FA playing field is shifting due to front offices leaning more on building from within and utilizing minor league depth, I think much more needs to be put in the pockets of minor leaguers - I'm not talking about just padding 1st round signing bonus slot amounts, I'm talking about significant pay and accommodations improvements across the board. If not significant pay increases in the minors, then perhaps the league minimum salaries need to be raised to give pre-arbitration players a bigger slice of the pie.

I can't find anything on Kratz's contract saying it's a split contract. I don't think it is. He is also out of options, not sure if he's ever been outrighted. I don't think it's a split contract. I think it was just 1yr for 1.2M if he makes the team but if he's cut before the season they pay him 300K. I'm assuming nobody else will sign him so he ends up in AAA mentoring Nottingham while being a depth piece in case Grandal/Pina are injured. Nottingham can fully develop then. I can't see Pina on the move as a result of this signing - no way they want Kratz over him as the backup as that's a sizable downgrade. And after 2019 Grandal and Kratz are FA so if Pina is gone now that would leave just Nottingham heading into 2020. Plus, Grandal wasn't acquired because we needed an upgrade over Pina, who's been like a 95 OPS+ hitter and great defender. That's not the issue. The issue is the lack of offense of the Kratz/Bandy types or the solid offense from Vogt but brutal arm so guys steal bases walking. Pina covers both sides well and landing Grandal turned out to be the best thing as he upgrades an already productive player now making him one of the best backups in the game so we're deep at that spot now (including Kratz/Nottingham AAA). Bingo - their catching depth chart at the MLB level is immensely better right now than it has been for a very long time. With a handful of solid C prospects also in the lower minors, it's a healthy spot in the organization, for sure.

I don’t disagree with him, as the past two off-seasons have progressed it seems more likely than ever a work stoppage is going to occur in off-season before the 2022 season. It's been a long time coming, and I tend to agree - the players' union is going to have to take a hard stance on reducing the years of team control/arbitration prior to free agency, and/or reducing the years of minor league control teams have on prospects (particularly collegiate-aged draftees). They've got to try and do something to get players to free agency during the first third of their prime years, rather than during the second half or in some cases beyond it depending on their position. Either that, or they have to be more willing to structure in more team-friendly opt-outs with buyout clauses in free agent contracts. MLB front offices are just not willing to crush their franchises for close to a decade by committing to those kind of crazy long guaranteed deals anymore, and you can't blame them.

Really like this move - I think the premium $ spent to bring in Grandal for just a year can and will definitely be offset a bit by another trade or two of guys like Thames, Anderson, Davies, etc before Opening Day to keep them in a position to add more talent to either SP, 2B, or both. There could very well be truth to the whole "using payroll savings from prior years to increase payroll in seasons where the team is in contention". Remember that their 2016 and 2017 payrolls were among the league's lowest. Specific to Grandal, bringing him in effectively removes one of the offensive black holes in the Brewers' lineup for long stretches of the 2018 season. Assuming the postseason defensive ineptitude isn't a "yips" sort of thing, he's a great addition to the roster and drastically upgrades a position of need.

Instead of all this "out getter" garbage, why can't they just say "1st pitcher, 2nd pitcher, 3rd pitcher" - and so on. It's fun to come up with new phrases and all, but Jeez. What do successful pitchers do? They get outs regardless of whether they were considered starters, setup guys, closers, etc. historically....so why does another term need to be invented, especially one that sounds like something a hipster with a man bun who demands to be contrarian would come up with?

I think you and I have a misunderstanding. Since Stearns does not make draft decisions, he likely doesn't view the players as HIS draft picks. Fair enough, but I view Ray as the first draft pick under Stearns' tenure as gm, which IMO carries more weight than if Ray was picked a season earlier. He might not make those decisions, but he runs the show and ultimately owns those picks

It's tough to emphatically hang up a cell phone, but hopefully Stearns just screamed "HaHaHa....Click!!!" into the phone before pressing the red telephone icon to end the call. The Giants think they have a bunch of leverage in trading Madbum, but I kind of doubt it. There aren't many other teams in the market for a veteran starter who have MLB-ready young starting pitching they are dying to trade away.

No kidding. Last year at this time many posters were ready to use Ray as a throw-in trade sweetener, and now he's an untouchable prospect? Look, I like Corey Ray, and I have no doubt that he's going to be a Major League OF ... maybe even a pretty good one. But he is also 24 years old and is looking at seeing AAA pitching for the first time in his career in 2019. I wasn't one of the posters who considered Ray a throw in prior to last year. I'm also not saying he's currently untouchable, but I don't want him moved for 1 year of Madbum based on how both of their respective 2018 seasons fared. Ray was 23 facing AA pitching for the first time last year and put up very good #'s despite the alarming K rate. Ray being 24 facing AAA pitching for the first time in a more hitter friendly environment could easily lead to #'s that have many more posters wanting him to stay a Brewer for a long time. I don't like the age concern with a player like Ray, either - to me he's always profiled as a toolsy talent who was going to need more time than what people assumed he'd need to develop as a hitter, despite being a collegiate draftee. He is also likely behind Tyrone Taylor and Troy Stokes Jr. on the depth chart due to their 40-man statuses. That has little to do with where Ray's standing is on the Brewers' depth chart as an organization, and I'd argue keeping Ray off the 40 man for 2019 means they want to maximize the years of control they have for him. And he's not really blocked in terms of how he's developing by current Brewer position players. Giving Ray a full AAA year in 2019, then potentially adding him as a 4th OF/platoon partner with Braun in 2020 before giving him an everyday OF job in 2021 seems like a good possibility at this point.

Yes - Ray led the southern league (a pitcher's league) in HR/2B/total bases, was 2nd in SLG, and actually finished in the top 10 in OPS despite the high K #'s. I don't want to trade 6 years of team control of a prospect who's still developing as a hitter for just one year of control for a starting pitcher that might be great, but could just be meh based on recent performance and injuries.

I don't see him as enamored with people, especially draft decisions that he didn't make. I completely agree with this - but Corey Ray was the first player Stearns drafted as GM of the Brewers, so it's a point that isn't really applicable in this particular discussion. Stearns has definitely shown a willingness to deal prospects/draftees from the organization that he didn't pick himself on their respective draft days. For example - if Ray and Stokes are comparable prospects at this stage, I'd expect Stokes to be traded before Ray because he was a Melvin draftee. From reading Ray's pre-draft scouting reports, he's almost morphed into the opposite type of hitter than what many scouts thought he would be. The base stealing ability is definitely there, and his defense by all accounts appears good enough for him to either be an average CF or plus corner OF - but he supposedly had a good hit tool that might profile for 15-20 HR a season at the MLB level. Ray's power showed up in a big way last season in his first AA stint, but his hit for average tool has suffered due to the alarming K rate. However, Ray's K rate actually dropped from 2017 to 2018 slightly, yet his power #'s exploded. On top of that, his OBP has continued to improve over the past few years, closing in on 100 points higher than his BA. Mixed signals in his numbers for sure, but there's enough really good signs for me to hesitate on sending Ray to another organization this offseason via trade unless it's for a dramatic MLB roster upgrade with multiple years of control (Kluber, Realmuto, etc). Back on topic to MadBum - I think the Brewers are a good fit as a trading partner provided the Giants aren't silly about their asking price. The Brewers can easily put together a package that includes MLB pitching (Davies/Anderson), a solid but not spectacular advanced level prospect (Stokes/Grisham/Brown), and a low level lottery ticket or two. If it takes more than that to pry Madbum from the Giants this offseason, then I'd look elsewhere if I'm Stearns.

I hate how the current cfp system is set up and how it has seemingly given Alabama a virtual lock on being in the top 4 discussion every year considering it's next to impossible for them to lose more than once in the regular season with their stranglehold on top talent and SEC powers that be enabling them to maintain soft schedules - so despite almost being equally annoyed that clemson and bama are playing each other the 4th year in a row, it's highly satisfying to watch bama get curbstomped tonight. OSU should have gotten into the playoff.

I don't think Ray is the type of player that you can accurately gauge what selling high is, though - there is too much talent to let go at this stage in his career, IMO. Assuming his 30/30 season isn't something Ray could repeat at the mlb level based off what he did (or didn't do) early in his minor league career and focusing on the k rate at this juncture is a big risk. I think Stearns will have a tough time moving on from his 1st ever draft pick without giving Ray more opportunities to become a quality major league player, so I doubt he is headed anywhere via trade this offseason.

I'd rather do a quantity deal that sends seemingly too many of the type of player you listed than a 1 for 1 swap of Ray and Madbum - it just depends what the Giants would accept.

I don't want Ray going for 1 year of Madbum, and I really like Madbum. Ray was a college draftee a few seasons ago, but also still relatively raw as a baseball player - so I really don't care as much about his age relative to the level he was playing in. Ray's high draft status was primarily a result of his tools/potential moreso than prodigious collegiate offensive production. He struck out a ton last year, yes, but he also hit the crap out of the ball when he did make contact, stole alot of bases, and played solid OF defense. I want to see what Ray can do in AAA as a Brewer before calling him "blocked" as a prospect. IMO, trading him now for what's likely 1 year of Madbum wouldn't be selling high on Ray. I'd rather they compile a couple MLB arms currently on their 40 man (Davies, Anderson, etc) to try and acquire Madbum from the Giants. Or, instead of Ray include Stokes.

And speaking of the Phillies, wasn't Kapler going to do out of the box things on defense like moving OF to different positions depending on the batter, etc. Well it's pretty clear that whatever he was implementing likely failed on an epic scale. you can get as far out of the box and innovative as possible, but you still need players who can catch and throw the ball to be good defensively - that was the Phillies problem much moreso than bad shifting and positioning.

This is the same recurring problem with their projection methodology - it does a terrible job of factoring contributions from good roster depth that can produce better than what the projection system indicates when put in favorable situations. I remember diving into it last offseason, and they had a full season's worth of DH ABs factored in for a combination of players for the Brewers and other NL teams...problem is they maybe play 12 games where they need to use a DH. Their team record projections are literally trying to fit square pegs in round holes, and they are totally unreliable in trying to assess how the group of individual players fits together as a unit to win games. Seems like even their staff spend more time discussing the reasons why their team record projections are flawed, particularly for rosters like the Brewers who lean heavily on almost their full 40 man roster during a season and often add pieces that fit their needs using all available talent acquisition approaches - maybe they should save themselves a little time and just stick with projecting individual players and scrapping the team record projections. In 2018, many Brewers who heavily contributed to the 2017 team that won 86 games regressed - yet they wound up winning 95 games anyway. I don't buy the argument that they should be projected for significantly fewer wins in 2019 using the same "regression" argument - the roster is deep and talented enough where it's too difficult to project where all the production leading to winning games will come from. Just because Yelich won't spend all of 2019 hitting like Ted Williams doesn't mean the Brewers will automatically win almost 20 fewer games than 2018.

Fangraphs' 2018 brewers record projection, after cain and yelich were added - 79 wins. Actual result - 95 wins in 162 games Fangraphs' 2017 brewers record projection - 73 wins. Actual result - 86 wins. Based on their recent track record, a 77 win projection means the crew may threaten 100 w's without adding anyone else

Fangraphs is pretty good at evaluating, comparing, and projecting individual players. IMO, fangraphs is among the last places I look for team record projections, because their methodology has proven to be about as accurate as throwing darts blindfolded for team projections.

I think the numbers for Hiura are low, I think he's a .300/.350/.460 hitter. Dubon's a little tougher, but I'd say, .270/.320/.385 (with 25-30 swipes). I'm not sure I have this straight. You think Hiura, who hit .270 at AA last year, is immediately a .300 hitter for the big league club? Additionally, you think Dubon coming off major knee surgery, could swipe 25-30 bags his first year off surgery? If so, I'll have whatever it is that you're having. Hiura hit 0.298 with an aggregate OPS of ~840 across 3 levels (A+, AA, and AFL) in 2018 in just under 600 ABs (640 plate appearances). I'll use that as a forecasting sample size more than ~2 months of AA at-bats when a good portion of those occurred while dealing with a thumb issue that actually caused him to miss time in late June/early July. His extended slump in AA coincided with the week prior to him missing time with the thumb and the few weeks after he returned to playing every day - that definitely impacted his overall AA batting line. He raked the first month in Biloxi right after his AA callup before that injury (was hitting 0.322 in AA prior to the thumb issue).

Then they will not have the ability financially to upgrade at C or SP this offseason, because Lowrie will sign for a zobrist-like AAV for at least 3 seasons. Getting him to agree to a shorter term contract means paying an even higher premium. If you're good with that, great - I think the Brewers are better served to upgrade at C or SP, and paying market rate for Lowrie isn't going to give you that much more value on the field than what a league minimum tulo would provide. Heck, a perez/spangenberg platoon makes more sense than doling out $15m more to Lowrie with the current roster they have, without factoring in Dubon or hiura at all.

No but he won 2 gold gloves as a SS and has the highest ever fielding percentage in mlb at that position. Is 2b all of a sudden a more difficult defensive position than SS? I'm guessing he would be considered an above average defensive 2b the first time he takes the field at that position...the fact he hasn't played innings there because he's been a SS shouldn't disqualify him from playing other positions well. I mean, the brewers put Shaw there often last year!

Not saying it's the only option, but Tulo would be a pretty good backup SS plan who could start 2019 as the opening day 2b. He could then fill in at 2nd and 3rd if and when Hiura comes up. If Arcia stinks again, the brewers could do far worse than giving those starts to Tulo. There are plenty of reasons for the brewers to hope he signs with them for league minimum.

Senzel went 2nd overall in his draft year (2016) out of college - I'd argue Hiura could've easily landed in the top couple overall picks in his draft year had more been known about the longterm health of his arm. Hiura is 1 year younger and doesn't carry the same longterm injury risk he had leading into 2018, and will likely be a top-10 prospect in all of baseball - my guess is there won't be 5 other "prospects" ranked ahead of Hiura who aren't starting their seasons in the major leagues in 2019, unless there are some egregious service time shenanigans with the likes of Vlad Jr, Jimenez, etc. I think both have the potential to be great MLB players, and it's pretty much guaranteed that prospect for prospect trades like this don't happen. The Reds will need Senzel to open up 2019 at AAA to get his feet back under him after the injury-plagued 2018. Despite the Reds' apparent IF logjam, if Senzel is healthy he'll be up sometime in 2019 playing everyday for Cincinnati - perhaps even as an OF.

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion - but ignorant opinions aren't worth communicating to others. There isn't a single thing you wrote in this post that is correct. People may be too high on Hiura - but it's tough not to be after he proved that his elbow issue isn't an issue that would cost him development time in the minors due to an immediate TJ surgery, while raking through most of a MLB spring training - followed by advancing through two minor league levels and basically owning the AFL. Hiura is a much better defender right now than Rickie Weeks ever was, and I'll opine that he's going to be a better defensive 2B than Gennett.