Fear The Chorizo

The Brewers are currently in a position to pay less than $40 million in salaries next year to every pitcher on their 40-man roster combined. Assuming they don’t have an outright aversion to spending significant money on a free agent pitcher, I think the Brewers max offer would be south of what is being projected for Keuchel. The number of years is the hardest part to predict, but I think the Brewers would/should hold firm at a three year offer. I am less concerned about the AAV as compared to the years. I don’t think they would surpass a $20 million AAV for him, so I will say 3 years in the $54 to $60 million range (maybe a 4th year team option with a buyout of a few million) is the max the Brewers would offer. I don’t have a good sense whether that will ultimately even be a competitive offer. To this point, Keuchel has an impressive track record of maintaining consistent velocity across his pitch mix (Link to Brooks Baseball). At the same time his strikeout rate (and swinging strike rate) has dropped, and he has entered the wrong side of 30. I don’t value him as a top of the rotation starter, but even a #2-3 starter type is probably worth a nearly $20 million AAV on the open market. What's the point of even making an offer like that, aside from the front office being able to say they at least tried? If the brewers want to stick to 3 yr offers in this market, they need to exceed the AAV over other offers that will include 4th and 5th years. I would be fine offering a pitcher of Keuchel's ability $22-24m AAV for 3 seasons, but hold firm on the contract length unless they would want to include a mutual 4th year option at $20M with a modest buyout that either party could exercise down the road.

True, but it's also a position they would be foolish to break their proverbial piggybank over given the fact they will have an impact offensive prospect manning that position and making league minimum in the near future. Unless hiura is traded for realmuto or kluber, which I strongly doubt, his presence in the organization has to impact what the brewers want to open 2019 with at 2b. And in reality, there are alot of ways the brewers can get much more production offensively from 2b that don't include giving out a huge FA contract this offseason.

What would you consider to be a more fragrant return for Domingo? I'd rather keep Santiago than give him away for basically nothing. The only people who will think this was good deal are Stearns worshippers. Can santiago catch like his dad?

You guys have a lot of faith that someone who has played a grand total of 96 games above Class A ball (and not one game at the AAA level) is going to be significant contributor in 2019. I won't be surprised if Hiura spends all of 2019 in AAA. Maybe I'm stubbornly sticking to my line of thinking from around early May 2018, when Hiura 1st started seeing the field and wasn't just DH-ing in A+ ball - I mentioned then that if his throwing arm proved to be healthy and he held his own defensively at 2B, Hiura would find himself in Milwaukee before the 2019 season ended. I'm not saying I expect Hiura to be up by mid June 2019 and hitting 3rd in the Brewers' lineup - I'm saying it's kind of naive to think the best 2B options available on the FA market are going to take 1 or 2 year deals from the Brewers when everyone knows the future of that position is Hiura. And, that future could arrive at some point next season. If he isn't in Milwaukee in 2019, he will be in 2020. Guys like Lowrie and LeMahieu are either looking for way more years, way more annual $, or a combination of both than what I'd want the Brewers to spend. They are looking for a Zobrist-like FA contract or something very close to it. You left the last part of my previous post off your quote - the part where I mentioned looking at a guy like Tulo makes a ton of sense for the 2019 Brewers. I'd much rather take a 1 yr veteran flyer on a guy like Tulo - who you can pay league minimum - to add to the MIF mix for 2019 instead of exhausting a large chunk of remaining payroll budget to entice one of the other FA options to come here for 1-2 years (Lowrie, LeMahieu, Dozier, etc). If the Brewers upgrade at C and add a pitcher of significance, and then still have budget available to bring in one of the top remaining FA, I'd be fine with it. Maybe that will be the case if there aren't other teams willing to spend significantly at 2B due to their own budgetary limitations or perceived better in-house options.

I can live with Pina at C, but we have to do something better than CS and Perez at 2B. He's going to be sitting in AAA waiting past the super 2 cutoff to start 2019 - I'd much rather focus alot more time and resources upgrading at C offensively and adding an impact starting pitcher. Getting a healthy Tulo in the mix as a 2B/backup SS/3B option for the league minimum would be awesome, too.

So Perez must be Spanish for Spangenberg...or Spangenberg in Bavarian means Perez

That sounds like a shift beater...make it really interesting and force the game to continue while said mountain lion is on the prowl.

With this current market, Tulo makes a ton of sense for the brewers...keep in mind he could play 3b as well, adding a solid rh bat in lineups to sit shaw and move perez over to 2nd. Tulo doesn't even need to be close to his prime self for it to be a substantial roster upgrade to start 2019, as long as he is healthy enough to play. At a league minimum price, the brewers honestly can't do better if they can acquire him and use remaining payroll budget on pitching/catching via FA or a trade.

Eric Sogard would hit well there

Another thing to consider with draft pick evaluation is that the value of a #40 overall pick can fluctuate wildly from one year to another. IIRC, 2019's upcoming draft class is being looked at as lacking quality depth, with its "strength" being collegiate hitting. Any time I hear about a draft class' strong suit being a deep pool of collegiate hitters that don't really stand out much from one another aside from the guys who will definitely go in the top 10, I just assume there is a lack of high-end "can't miss" prep talent and overall lack of pitching talent outside the very top of the draft. If Stearns and company feel like the 2019 draft looks like a dud in terms of quality depth between picks #10-75, and are confident they can find the same caliber player with their normal 2nd round pick (#66 overall) as with this #40 competitive balance pick, honestly that pick had very little value to the Brewers. Particularly if the upcoming draft class will be light on impact talents that will fall due to signability issues where having that extra bonus pool $ coming with the #40 pick would potentially make a difference in signing a guy who deserves to be picked much higher than 28th overall (Brewers' 2019 1st round pick).

He's still a great QB, but he can't do the same things he did 5 seasons ago physically - that's just father time. To me, his 2018 has looked alot like a great player trying to adjust to where his still potent but waning physical gifts can take him, and he unfortunately didn't have 1/2 the season's-worth of practice time due to injury. Injuries are part of the game, but they are also really starting to pile up for him (knees, calves, collar bones, concussions, foot bones, etc...). Rodgers always talks about playing to/through 40...I wonder if that's really going to happen. He comes off as a guy that may want to do something else in life beyond football, and also is someone that may opt to hang 'em up early rather than having injuries/eroding skills force him out. I think the knee issue was a big deal - I think the talent limitations of his surrounding cast was also a big deal, particularly the stable of talented but young receivers and an O-line that really isn't very good. That type of surrounding cast needs to be good enough when you're the highest-paid player in the game - for Rodgers of 5 seasons ago it probably would have been good enough to make the playoffs. My hope is that the roster talent level can dramatically improve along with getting a fresh coaching perspective to get some juice back inside this organization. The last few years have felt very S.F. Giants-esque in terms of a talented but fading franchise who couldn't stop from eroding into an also-ran organization because they've gotten stale at the top.

No, they traded the 40th pick in next June's draft, not a promising high school draftee from 2017's draft that has yet to reach high A. I don't care where lutz was drafted, there are so many mlb draft rounds and good gms find a way to get good players throughout the draft. They didn't give away a draft pick, they used it to pick up 3 years worth of control of an effective mlb left handed reliever.

Opinions of others are fun, especially when they are wrong. Let's get this thread to page 50 before Santa Claus shows up...I'm already holidays drunk, so it'll be fun to read. I for one can't wait until this guy starts opening day next year.

I'll take my chances at giving up $2M in bonus pool money (not real money, just the amount the Brewers 'could' spend next summer if they retained this pick) and a sandwich draft pick in exchange for what management feels is a bullpen upgrade at a role of need with roster flexibility, particularly when the flipside is paying anything close to market rates via free agency or prospect capital for a comparable reliever this offseason. but hey, feel free to call me crazy for not getting out my pitchfork and walking towards Miller Park. And yes, let's go ahead and put Cain in the win column in year 1 of 5 given the fact it was a huge win for 2018. I'm sure somewhere along the lines in year 4 or maybe as early as year 3 when he hits the DL or goes on a month-long slump we'll hear all about how the contract is now a loss without giving any perspective about the benefit Cain gave to the team earlier in the deal, so let's put the optimistic blinders on for now and call it a win.

What would it take to get Martinez? A severe lapse in David Stearns' Judgement - He doesn't upgrade the Brewers' lineup at any of the positions he "plays" on an NL roster. He'll be traded, but i'd be shocked if it was to an NL club unless they have a glaring need for a 1B.

Intriguing - with what they did after acquiring Moose, I wonder if Tulo can play 3rd if 2nd isn't an option? Tulo's 0.919 career OPS against lefty pitching would look pretty sweet in the lineup assuming he's healthy enough to actually play everyday again. Tulo and Arcia on the left side, slide Shaw over to 2nd

Fixed your earlier statement - there are other blue chip positional prospects in the Brewers' system right now, they just haven't had the time to develop as professional players yet. No way Hiura is getting traded by Stearns. If he makes a trade of impact using prospects, he will continue to utilize prospects/young players within the organization that he didn't draft.

Murphy would fit perfectly into Thames' role when Hiura comes up - he'd be the LH 1b option / backup 2B / pH. That's why they may be looking to sign him for two seasons.

Murphy would fit perfectly into Thames' role when Hiura comes up - he'd be the LH 1b option / backup 2B / pH. That's why the may be looking to sign him for two seasons.

He was bad last season because he was coming off surgery and seemingly couldn't even run at full speed when he first started back in the majors. After the trade to the Cubs he had a neutral dWAR for what it's worth. I have never heard of him having a reputation as "terrible" on defense pre-2018. (Granted he's a bat-first player obviously) Considering that the Brewers had Travis Shaw at 2nd alot down the stretch, I'd be fine with putting an actual 2B at that position even if he's viewed as below average defensively with how the Brewers utilize shifting. A healthy Murphy would be a great offensive boost as a 2B, and if Hiura finds himself in Milwaukee mid season Murphy would actually be a fantastic bench option that can pH or backup as a 1B assuming Thames will be dealt at some point this offseason.

I wouldn't do that for 10 years of bauer. In fact I probably wouldn't even do a 1 for 1 deal for bauer with either of those guys.

We are the smallest market.......we can and do spend money.....we just can't compete financially with big market teams. These are facts.......you don't have to like them but it's silly to ignore financial realities. We have limitations that many other markets don't have so mistakes that we make hurt more. If you let that kind of rational run your team then you might as well give up. Before you start. If your not going to make a move or spend money because you might fail you have failed allready,and yes we are the smallest market but not the smallest revenue in MLB. There's a difference between spending like you're a huge market team and building an organization that controls enough tradeable assets to acquire impact talent using prospect capital - I feel like the Brewers can turn their organization into the latter if they continue operating as they have under Stearns. There's no way they'll ever be a team consistently vying for the most expensive FAs every offseason. Also, you don't need the largest payroll to win a title in baseball - you need to be smart with the resources you have available and leverage them when most appropriate to give the organization the best chance to win titles and consistently compete without demolishing your chances to win in the future.

The Brewers aren’t fearful of spending money. They just don’t have as much to spend as those teams you mentioned. I hope you get that if the Brewers choose the wrong large contract, it could cripple any of the progress they have made so far. So that means you don’t try? The brewers offered Darvish $100 plus million last offseason and were outbid by the cubs...thank the heavens they were outbid by the cubs. The brewers do try, they just aren't going to win bidding wars very often when deeper pocketed teams are involved.

From solely a 'hits' perspective, which IMO is a bigger separator than HR rate in terms of park factors, Coors' Field is the most hitter friendly park by far across MLB. In that regard, Miller Park was actually viewed as a more pitcher-friendly venue, ranking 22 in 2018 in terms of 'hits' park factor. LeMahieu has a 0.157 point OPS split between career home (.835) and road (.673), driven in large part by a career batting average discrepancy of 0.66 points (.330 vs .264). His career HR totals are similar home vs road (actually has hit more HR on the road), but his doubles and triples output is basically 2-1 in terms of home vs road over a similar # of plate appearances. Coors has made LaMahieu's career look similar to Dozier offensively, but Dozier is the better hitter.

Career OPS of 0.850 against LHP while playing most of his games at pitcher-friendly Target Field would be an interesting add to the club as a 1-year stopgap. I like LeMahieu, but it's impossible to not be cautious about Coors field park effects on his #'s and I'm sure he would be looking for more than what the Brewers are comfortable giving a 2nd baseman in free agency considering their best prospect is on his way soon at that position.