Fear The Chorizo

I like both Peralta and Woodruff. A lot. But we're talking about trading for MadBum in this thread, which I'd be totally fine for either to be shipped to the Giants for one year of him - which would happen to be his FA year coming off two injury-riddled years that actually allowed his arm to keep innings off it. There is nothing haphazard about having to offer up a solid prospect for a full season of a premier starter in his prime. If a guy like Peralta is untouchable based on 1/2 a MLB season of inconsistent starts following his awesome debut in Colorado, then no trades would ever happen. Aside from age difference, to me there isn't much at all in terms of talent difference between the two - both have potential to be quality MLB starters but both also have question marks. Service time is essentially a wash, which is the more critical thing to weigh for the Brewers. Both Peralta and Woodruff have a tendency to rack up high pitch counts even when they are pitching well, which sort of makes the whole discussion about being able to churn through a lineup a bunch of times kind of pointless. There were quite a few Peralta starts where he got through 4 or into the 5th but came out after pushing 100 pitches - granted he may improve that over time, but his delivery that makes him deceptive/effective may also be the primary reason why he has control issues. literally jumping at the plate to give himself better extension is more difficult to repeat than a more traditional delivery that relies on leverage. Woodruff's stuff gives him a better ability to pitch to weak contact and limit pitchcount, although a high-90's fastball is a good weapon to get swings and misses, too. In all honesty, I don't see how the Brewers come out looking bad if they have any 2 of Peralta, Bumgarner, and Woodruff on their opening day 2019 roster - but having Bumgarner being one of those two makes that roster alot stronger no matter which of them would presumably be dealt to the Giants.

I think it's ironic that woodruff was generally thought of as a throw-in type trade chip at last season's deadline, with many wishing he was dealt to the orioles instead of Ortiz - who isn't near ready to be a mlb contributor and needed to get on a 40 man roster. Now he is a blue chip, can't miss cornerstone - I love what he did down the stretch and in the postseason, but if the giants want him for madbum, you do the deal and dont think twice. Madbum is exactly what the brewers need at the top of the rotation. This also may be the definition of selling high on woodruff given that he still hasn't proven to be a mlb caliber starter. I'd prefer to use Anderson and Davies as trade pieces because I love woodruff's arm, but if I had to pick between woodruff and burnes to keep, I keep burnes because I like his repertoire better as a starter. I'd prefer peralta to be dealt before woodruff, too, but I don't think he would be who the giants are targeting. It's wishful thinking, but the thought of madbum and anything close to the 2017 version of nelson plus chacin towards the top of the rotation is pretty awesome

Loved watching him play...definite HOF'er and by all accounts a great guy. I will miss the epic head touching razzing by his teammates and even opponents, will need to search YouTube for a 'best of' compilation!

The only question has been his arm, not if it is accurate or strong enough to play 2nd, but if it would fall off and require surgery due to the elbow soreness that kept him from playing the field most of his collegiate career. Him getting through 2018 without any sort of setback related to arm issues due to throwing is huge, even moreso than validation at the plate that he had the best hit tool in his draft. He would have likely been in the conversation for being taken 1st overall if his arm health wasn't a question 2 years ago.

Probably a combination of rookie receivers not being on the same page/knowing how to read the defense (like the play where ESB was open over the middle but Rodgers expected him to sit in the zone instead of cross through it) and Rodgers' knee sapping some of his strength. When you have an injury the tendency is to overcompensate for it which often messes up other things. Last night he was 21-30 for 311 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs - that's really good for any QB for a prime-time road game, especially in that environment with only one veteran WR. Rodgers played a very solid game considering the pressure he was under all night. He made several throws/plays that only he and perhaps a couple of other people on the planet can make. There were a few plays where he wasn't quite able to avoid the rush and pick up huge chunks running that I'm sure a combination of his knee issue and father time cost him last night, also. The bad pass on that critical 3rd down looked to be a footwork problem, which I think he's gotten lazy with due to his arm talent - Favre did the same thing at roughly the same stage in his career, and his career resurgence started with McCarthy trying to get him back to better throwing mechanics. The talent is still there, but Rodgers has gotten a bit inconsistent and probably could use a fresh coaching perspective to refocus him. Still a 19-1 TD to INT ratio is absurd for a guy who's "struggling". It seems like teams are blitzing the Packers more on plays that by design take a long time to develop, so they're getting home or at least pressuring him so much that the play design crumbles and then he's forced to try and improv with a Adams + a group of young receivers. Unless Rodgers can avoid a free rusher on most of those plays, he's not going to make the opponent pay. That's a recipe for a lot of poor 3rd down conversions, which is what has been a season-long problem. Perhaps there are plays/formations that teams are keying on for blitzes - I keep going back to the last 1.5 quarters against the Bears in game 1 when a 1-legged Rodgers carved up a Bears' D with essentially a sugar huddle and 4-5 wide receiver sets. I get the need to run, particularly with Jones playing great - but why not continue using that desperation/short passing game approach as the backbone of a game plan if it works? It would definitely curtail the blitz-heavy defensive schemes if more slants and short crossing routes were run that can just gouge blitzes.

meh, I don't like how these projections are put together so I'm not going to worry too much about how the results wind up ranking the teams. As others have said there wasn't a standard # of prospects evaluated for each team, so the organizations who have more minor league depth aren't valued at all. I don't buy that there are 21 better farm systems across MLB than what the Brewers have right now, despite all their in-season trades that resulted in moving mostly prospects who probably weren't going to be around longterm, anyways. Stearns has only gone through 3 drafts as GM, which should mean we start seeing that talent advancing through the upper minor league levels - although plenty of it already has (Ray (AA), Burnes (MLB), Brown (AA), Hiura (AA)) Fangraphs should stick to projecting the Brewers for mid-upper 70's win totals...

The replay showed it was an obvious incompletion - what makes McCarthy's non-challenge even worse was somebody was dinged up on that play so they had even more time than normal to look at replays before throwing the red flag on the field. You challenge that play 100% of the time - it would've nullified a 34 yard play that even got them into scoring range and cost them a down at midfield. If McCarthy is waiting on hearing from someone in the booth whether to challenge or not in that spot, that person should be fired on the plane ride home. The risk of losing a timeout in that spot while still leading by 4 with ~6 minutes of game left versus being right and keeping the Seahawks out of the red zone is pointless to worry about. It just is par for the course that Seattle's two 4th quarter scoring drives were incredibly helped by two long pass plays that were both probably incompletions. That overturned completion the drive before got Seattle out of punting from their own end zone at a time when the Packers could have put the game away. tonight is a microcosm of the season...you walk away feeling like they weren't head and shoulders the better team, but you feel like they should have won that game - it just doesn't feel like a team that's well-put together...maybe that's partially the point with a new GM seemingly being aggressive in trying to retool the roster.

Agreed - I'm trying to recall whether any of the trades made over the past few years involved a Stearns draft pick, much less one of his 1st rounders...He's used the farm system's holdover prospects from Melvin's tenure as trade capital up until this point. There are still prospects of note, along with young and controllable MLB players Stearns could continue using for acquiring quality MLB talent - I see no reason for Stearns to start shipping out "his guys" this offseason. Hiura isn't going anywhere aside from AAA to Milwaukee over the next year.

Although I am not in the public sector anymore (Act 10), public sector employees took better benefits instead of pay increases like the private sector was getting for years. I am surprised this isn't more common knowledge as I have to tell people time and time again. That's because private sector employment is much more volatile - salaries may range higher at the expense of retirement and medical benefits because careers in the private sector are rarely made at 1-2 companies and the private sector has adjusted by essentially ending their antiquated pension system. 401ks are personal accounts much more than company benefits, too. Teachers in particular can often settle into a lifestyle built around a position with alot of security and have a lower cost of living with a better work life balance than most in the private sector. I'm not dinging one side or the other, to each their own. However, I feel it should never be an apples to apples comparison, because it's a different lifestyle. I think most public sector employees understand that to retire "early" means sacrificing income during their prime earning years in order to maintain the retirement benefits they and others before them have earned. The issue gets sticky when costs of the benefit packages outweigh funds coming in, particularly with tax dollars that are paid by everyone (including private sector stiffs who have to use their "higher" wages after medicare and social security get their take to cover their own retirements/benefits).

The NFC is a crapshoot for playoff seeding after the Rams and Saints...and if not for a boneheaded fumble on a kickoff return Green Bay probably beats the Rams a few weeks ago on the road. The Vikings and Bears still have to play each other twice, and the Bears also still have the Pack and Rams coming up. Green Bay actually still controls its own destiny for the division, a win Thursday night would give them wildcard separation between them and a pile of 4-5 squads, plus vault them towards being that team nobody wants to see in the playoffs if #12 is upright. They do need to get their secondary depth chart sorted out between all the position switches and nagging injuries. The are 4-4-1 but are probably 3 plays away from being 7-2 with a legit shot at a 1st round bye. This is the m.o. of a young team with inexperienced guys having to play in tight games...hopefully the growing pains early lead to a run late - I have no gauge on where this team is headed though, they could just as easily finish 7-8-1 as they could go on a roll and and wind up 11-4-1 and go on a deep postseason run. What happens is probably somewhere in the middle, which could easily be good enough for another playoff berth and frustrating playoff exit.

Not sure where to put this, but Theo has indicated a willingness to listen on trade offers for Kris Bryant. The article mentions Bryant's likely arbitration cost and the Cubs' limited offseason flexibility due to their bloated payroll that will be included some significant arbitration raises to some of their younger players, plus Theo commenting about trying to rebuild their dumpster fire of a farm system that he poured gasoline on to create...The article also mentions the friction early on with Boras when the Cubs basically held Bryant back a full year before calling him up to the majors while they were terrible so they'd have him under team control for a longer portion of when they were competitive. I'm sure there's some merit to the above being reasons why the Cubs would be shopping Bryant - but if they were confident he'll be healthy and completely over his shoulder issues there's no way Theo would be talking about trading the 2016 MVP - If they are actually serious about taking trade offers for Bryant, the Cubs have to be worried about Bryant's shoulder being a chronic problem. They are about to come into a ton of fun $$ with their own network, so I don't buy their payroll being a reason to trade Bryant - particularly when all indications are that they'll be pushing to sign either Machado or Harper.

It just speaks to their dreadful offseason last year going after free agent pitching - the fact they are actually justified in having to make this move considering all the other options already under longterm deals is crazy. Hamels pitched great for them over about 6 weeks, then was meh down the stretch - I think it could backfire on them spectacularly considering he's in his mid-30s and his overall 2018 stats point to a declining pitcher. It also seems like the Cubs and Rangers love shuffling players back and forth with one another.

This on top of significant arby raises to tagging whiz and likely MVP runner up Baez, Schwarber, likely option pickup on Strop, arby raise for Montgomery, arby bump for Bryant, continued big $ to Rizzo, Heyward, and Zobrist...and they're planning to after Harper or Machado??? That is going to be one ugly payroll, and their farm is still awful.

It's not like these games count, it's all about developing young players. It seems a bit unusual to split up Brewers but this explanation seems logical in this case. If the goal is to develop young players, wouldn't that make it odd that Wilkerson is there to begin with? The only thing I can figure is that they want to get his innings up so he can be one of the pitchers on the San Antonio Shuttle next year. They may have had a player # requirement and didn't have any younger/truer prospects that they felt needed more innings and were ready to face quality competition, too. It's great using the AFL to develop youngsters, but it needs to fit withing individual player needs. There's actually a good chunk of AFL players who are what I would consider to be some combo of "expiring prospects" that likely profile as AAAA roster filler. Wilkerson's profile is very similar to 1-2 Brewer pitchers sent to the AFL on a consistent basis each year, so it's not really a surprise. He could be pitching to try and get himself a contract overseas for all we know, because he sits pretty low on the depth chart for Brewer arms moving forward.

you gotta wonder if the Brewers' FO has a finite budget given their financial limitations if they want to be smart, and with Stearns' value appearing to dramatically rise and likely warrant a promotion to Pres of Baseball ops and a big raise to go with it, there wasn't a chance they could match a huge offer made by the Reds for Johnson to be a pitching coach. The conspiracy theory/can't-have-nice-things worry in my mind is wondering if Stearns is on the way out to a big market offering the moon and the coaches are essentially free to go if they don't want the risk of a new GM/baseball ops group gutting the staff when they arrive anyway. It sure seems like Stearns does a pretty good job of identifying pitching talent, so if he isn't leaving Milwaukee himself I have quite a bit of confidence that he'll find solid options to coach the pitching staff. Not a knock on Johnson, but I think sometimes his impact to improving pitchers is overestimated, particularly considering the fact that there have been some busts on the mound that his apparent pixie dust couldn't help.

Also, Johnson grew up in gibson city, il...kind of halfway between cincy and chicago...Wouldn't surprise me in the least if he was a Reds fan growing up and/or had reasons to try and work closer to home for family reasons in addition to making more $$.

Obviously DJ feels Cincinnati is a more competent organization than Milwaukee. That should be a red flag. The Brewers have won more games than the Reds in each of the last five seasons. They are currently positioned to continue doing so for multiple seasons to come. The Reds are going to need to do a lot more than hire DJ as pitching coach to change their course. I do believe the Reds have some stud pitching prospects in the low minors right now...that tends to happen picking in the top 5 consistently draft after draft...

I just see letting Schoop go for nothing in his free agent year resulting in him hitting 35 HRs with a mid 200's BA while playing solid defense at 2B - I frankly don't much care to use what Schoop did (or basically didn't ) do as a Brewer for 2 months to decide on his future with the team when the reality is that his playing time was hampered from jump street. He's a right-handed hitter who fares better against RHP than left, who was dealt to a team experimenting with a converted 3B slugger at 2nd who can't hit lefties at all. Schoop didn't get an everyday opportunity to play against RHP, particularly once Arcia came back up and hit well enough to start most games at SS down the stretch. 2019 sets up for Schoop to get his shot as the Brewers' everyday 2B in his FA year - I think it's a gamble worth taking for Stearns to bring him back if the price is palatable. Schoop's offensive profile is terrible for a utility/bench role that gets sporadic ABs, particularly when he's put into positions that aren't necessarily his strength like he was down the stretch. I don't think it hurts the Brewers at all to offer Schoop arbitration and essentially lowball him - the $10M figure tossed about for his 2019 contract assumes a normal salary progression based mostly on what he got following his 2017 year - this year's determination has to factor in a poor 2018 overall. It wouldn't surprise me for the Brewers to offer Schoop arbitration with a slightly lower figure than $8.5 Million, potentially go to a hearing if Schoop's side and them can't agree to an amount that fits the Brewer payroll needs, and if the arbitration panel awards Schoop the too high to stomach amount the Brewers could still just cut him 1/2way into spring training and only owe 1-2 months of his salary, I believe. Letting him walk without offering arbitration would be foolish, IMO.

Ahhhh yes, the good old 2011 draft, when we passed on Jose Fernandez, Sonny Gray, Trevor Story, Michael Fulmer, and yes Blake Snell to take Taylor Jungmann. Ugh. Every team but the marlins would have passed on fernandez because he basically said it would be the only team he would sign with if drafted out of high school. Besides, I dont think he is winning Cy Youngs any time soon... You can handpick 10 players from just about every draft that make just about every team look dumb for not taking them.

Think his wrist & hand are healed now. Some overreacted a bit when struggled after returning from that injury but hands & wrist issues will always take time to recover & find groove again. When you have a guy thats bat speed is explosive, timing will be off. Think he was still around .330 prior to injury. With this showing, I’d not be shocked if he is top 10 prospect in baseball. He is showing all the tools you hope he would. Ks are higher than normal but hard to believe that will ever be a big issue for him & his offensive game. My guess is they have him working on something like as mentioned launch angle. If he doesn't open 2019 with the big league brewers himself, there won't be 10 other prospects who aren't on opening day mlb rosters in front of Hiura in those rankings following spring training. He is a special hitter...

Money makes it easier but you still have to be competent. I don't think $200 million would suddenly make it easy for the Brewers. Lots of teams have had plenty of money and been dry for a long time. The Yankees have not really been all that great for the last 15 years or so. There was basically no separation between the Dodgers and Brewers. Money was not why the Brewers missed out on the WS. The Cardinals are competitive every year without a really monster payroll, the Royals won two pennants and a championship. The money thing is just sort of played out. That is MLB, it is not changing, so we are better off just learning how to compete under these circumstances, which we are doing. I am convinced that money will not prevent the Brewers from winning a championship. Money doesn't guarantee championships, but it gives a team a head start. It also, and probably more importantly, allows teams to recover from mistakes. Teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, and Cubs, can much more easily bounce back from bad personnel moves, bad drafts, and just bad seasons in general. Teams like the Brewers and Royals can't afford many mistakes. They can't afford not to hit on trades when they give up four prospects. They need everything to come together almost perfectly. Money in baseball doesn't guarantee championships, but it essentially eliminates worrying about windows as an organization to try and win a title - money can be thrown around to dull the pain of losing key players or injuries, and teams with bottomless pocketbooks can be much more aggressive trading minor league assets knowing they can buy themselves out of a mistake if they really have to. This year's AL playoff teams were last year's champion (Astros) who went even more all in for 2018, the Indians (go for it year aided by playing in an awful division), Red Sox (huge market), Yankees (huge market), and A's (AL version of the this year's Brewers). The NL playoff teams were the Dodgers (huge market), Cubs (huge market), Braves (tons of young talent aided by the Nats underperforming), Rockies (go for it year prior to key bats reaching free agency), and Brewers (smallest market in baseball). Money in baseball absolutely makes a difference in setting teams up for the sustained opportunity to compete for titles.

To me, the fact that Schoop has the ability to play SS and give the Brewers some positional flexibility might help justify keeping him around for 2019, even at ~$10Mil...it's just a tough pill to swallow letting him walk and basically lighting the prospect capital given up for him on fire - a big part of the reason it was probably close to the package they offered the Orioles for Machado was the fact Schoop was under team control for all of 2019. If you have a disaster and Arcia either gets hurt or can't hit again in 2019, Schoop gives them flexibility there. I'm probably crazy, but I'd prefer to avoid watching another 2B jettisoned from the Brewers' roster for nothing just tear it up next year, especially if they don't view Hiura as the opening day 2B realistically. I think they bring him back, offer him a low end arbitration #, and try to come to terms with him somewhere close to what he made this season before it reaches the arbitrator. Schoop is notoriously streaky, and unfortunately he didn't hit the ground running offensively as a Brewer and then got relegated to being a part time player when Shaw played 2B more frequently and Arcia hit well enough to play most days at SS. I'd like to see what Schoop can do knowing he's got the 2B job every day (assuming Shaw's back at 3rd with Moose likely opting out), and getting a full spring training to get more comfortable as a Brewer in what would be his free agent year. Schoop's stretch with the Brewers was the worst offensive #'s he's put up IN HIS CAREER...I have quite a bit of confidence he will be drastically better next year simply by being "average" Schoop.

Couldn't ask for a better last out to win the world series....

I think the apparent glut of pitchers with starting capabilities will be somewhat thinned out during the hot stove - it's just difficult at this point to focus on the specific 2-3 pitchers who would be headed out in a trade because we simply don't know the caliber of targets that would be brought in. If the Brewers go after a MLB blockbuster to dramatically upgrade a perceived position of need with impact talent (C, 1B, 2B), then I would guess that one of the arms like Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta, Brown might need to be a centerpiece. It's easy to forget that most people assumed Woodruff was on the outs and questioned his overall value to the organization as recently as the trade deadline - now many of us view him as untouchable given his postseason success...the reality is probably somewhere in the middle with him and a few other young arms that now have MLB experience (and a couple upper level prospects who had solid years in AA) If the Brewers try to trade MLB pitching for minor league prospects to replenish talent across their system, then arms like Anderson and Davies might even be on the block to clear roster space for some of the youngsters that took their playoff roster spots. Until all the player options and arbitration decisions are made and the dust settles with who the 2019 Brewer roster is heading into the Winter meetings, it's almost impossible to accurately speculate. The plus is that the Brewers seemingly have a ton of options with how to approach this offseason, which IMO is much better than obviously needing to hold a firesale, obviously needing to sign a FA or two at specific spots, or obviously swing a trade for a specific position. Specific to Houser, his arm is too good to just give up on - he might be a trade candidate, but he could just as easily slide into a bullpen role for 2019.

There is a ton of history between Manny and Boston...in fact there's a ton of history between Manny and alot of teams - it's why when Yelich was quoted during the NLCS that his play on Jesus was "a dirty play by a dirty player" that there wasn't anybody defending Machado aside from Manny himself. I said it earlier - the Dodgers will be ecstatic to get Seager back at SS next year and be rid of the Machado circus.