Fear The Chorizo

Arcia's defense is tremendous, but the Brewers are 8-17 when they score less than 4 runs. My guess is that's a very similar winning percentage for teams all across MLB when scoring less than 4 runs. Considering 9 of those losses are shutouts already, I'd say their record of 8-8 when scoring 1-3 runs is pretty darn good and reflective of how great their overall pitching staff has performed despite plenty of starting pitching variability with both who's starting and inconsistent performance.

You can make a bad move and get a good result just like you can make a good move and have a bad result. But you can never be wrong about questioning a pitching move that was made when your argument is to leave the other pitcher in, we get it... And Arcia would've had to make a superhuman play to keep that grounder Hader knocked down in the IF, especially since he was shaded to the hole, not up the middle. As annoying as the announcers were, they were right about Hader not being as electric as that 9th inning progressed. Bringing in Knebel to face a righty was the right move in that spot.

W!

Orlando!!

2018 season series with the Cards is currently 5-5, and the Brewers won the 2017 season series 11-8.

He's been better than 2016 Guerra, actually - fantastic value to this club with all the other rotation volatility thus far

I'd say that 1B are among the highest risk for collisions - seeing they take at least a dozen throws per game with a player flying down the line trying to get to the base. Errant throws that pull the 1B into the baseline can be extremely dangerous. Plus, OF's routinely crash into walls and at times teammates going after flyballs - granted, not other players on the bases - but you can't say these two sets of positions are never at risk. DH would be the position who's "never at risk" in the field. If we're talking solely about on-field collisions with other baserunners in the infield, 3B and pitchers are probably the least likely to have a runner barreling down on them.

With the early start time and a righty starting pitcher today, I get it. I'm sure Arcia got in either late last night or early this morning. Just really unfortunate that Saladino got injured. I'll be miffed if Sogard continues to get the lions' share of starts at SS though - even if Arcia can't get out of his own way at the plate, he provides superior defense there. If Arcia can't get going to be at least serviceable offensively over the next few weeks at the MLB level, they've gotta address the SS position via trade.

Next month should at least get the cubs closer to the total number of games played as milwaukee in the standings, but it will come at a cost of only 2 off days for them compared to 5 for the brewers between now and the end of june. I've posted before about their lack of days off in august/Sept, but this is another tough stretch. The cubs offense is mashing, but their starting pitching continues to be uneven and their pen is showing leaks now that they aren't getting extra days' rest due to early season rainouts.

Yes, and I think that's also a massive overpay by grouping two young starters together at the top of the package. I think one of Woodruff/Peralta plus a mid-level position player prospect that isn't as touted as Ray would be palatable. If Baltimore wants a quantity type deal than look for the Brewers to try adding lotto tickets from lower levels.

If Machado or any other quality rental player (Lowrie, frontline Starter, etc) can be acquired using Brewer prospects that may have a difficult time finding their way onto the 40 man roster due to being blocked or just not being close enough to the majors before being subject to the rule 5 draft, then I think it makes great sense to use them as trade fodder to make a deal like that happen. Guys like Modeiros, Gatewood, Grisham, Kirby, and many others have plenty of talent based on where they were drafted, but the clock is running on them to become MLB players with the Brewers due to the combo of minor league time already logged plus organizational depth in front of them at the MLB level. For promising prospects already on the 40 man (Peralta, Woodruff), or for ones that the Brewers are just biding their time to add (Hiura, Burnes), they shouldn't be included in deadline deals. In addition, the Brewers currently have a pile of #3-#5 caliber starters that have a few years of MLB control remaining, all of which could be attractive for teams looking to potentially retool instead of completely rebuild (Davies, Guerra, Wilkerson, Suter). If Nelson returns to form and/or a frontline starter is targeted, some of those guys won't have a role and could be best served to the Brewers as trade bait. That said, it's always tough for a playoff contender to send away pitching with MLB experience via trade at the deadline...unless it's part of a deal that returns a much more talented arm to improve the MLB club.

I think any slide rule developed for eliminating collisions needs to include some sort of statement that if a slide is attempted, the players legs or arms (depending whether it's a foot- or head-first slide) need to be directed towards the base/plate they are trying to reach. Sure, Rizzo's chest eventually winds up over the plate, after he basically throws himself sideways to get his feet into the catcher's legs, where he's getting ready to make a throw about 5' off the plate and completely out of a normal path for a guy running from 3rd to home. I always look at these plays and think a good hard slide is when the runner actually slides into the base hard, not when they slide with 100% intent of contacting a player first and eventually reaching 4-6' in the opposite direction of where a slide is directed to get a hand or leg on the base. If a hard slide directly into a bag has no effect on the fielder taking a throw and making the relay to another base, then that fielder did his job to avoid the runner - that shouldn't be a reason for the runner to contort himself and his path in a way he never would if he was actually trying to reach a base safely.

well I'd be in the 10% - a dirty play is a dirty play, regardless of uniforms. I for one feel that Rizzo is a fantastic guy - the things he does off the field, particularly for kids with cancer, are wonderful. What he did on the field yesterday is a bad play that doesn't have a part in the game - those that feel it's "clean" and "part of baseball" must enjoy watching car crash videos.

4 straight NBA finals, rinse and repeat teams...no real reason to have a league anymore, and a big reason why I've largely tuned out NBA basketball.

Based on rizzo's explanation, I wonder if he'd be ok with a few pirate runners barreling him over when they are streaking down the 1b line as long as they also touch the bag when they run by. If he doesn't like them going high, they could always just go low and step on the inside edge of the bag if rizzo lets his foot linger there too long. My guess is the pirates will address it the older school way and rizzo will be wearing one the next few games at the plate. Rizzo's comment is just bs trying to justify a dirty play, and it probably increases tensions toward him from the pirate dugout - makes himself look worse instead of just saying that he made a mistake in the heat of the moment and he was just glad he didn't cause a serious injury.

Well, there's one rotation option down...all the machado smoke will more than likely be replaced by the cubs going after another starter, because they are perilously thin there. Triceps tendinitis doesn't sound like a 1-2 start stint on the 10 day DL.

Thus will be one of those games I'll check in with about 2 hours from now for my sanity...walks mean runs...throw strikes!

This is the last thing the staff needs today...get some outs!

I think we all get it, that Braun's last few years of his contract will likely pay him more than what his production will deserve...try to look at it from the standpoint of how much excess value the brewers got from Braun compared to the earlier dollars per year this contract paid him. Braun made $5mil the year he won an mvp right after he inked this current deal, and $7mil in 2012, when he arguably had a better offensive season. He didn't start earning $20 million per year until 2016, and the next two years will see that salary actually decrease back down towards $15 million. People are talking with confidence that some free agent hitters are going to approach 40 million a season starting in 2019 that would carry the through the same ages the brewers got brauns prime at about $8 million per season on average.

Maybe the Fangraphs staff read too much of this board over the offseason... I think they are just slower than other outlets to adjust their preseason projections so it seems like they are less volatile/more reliable. As others have noted, the Brewers' team as currently constructed isn't a friendly one for projection outlets to forecast, because they have alot of depth and positional flexibility that doesn't include huge dropoffs in production. Throw in the fact that they are managing their bullpen/pitching staff differently than how projection systems have been developed to try and quantify, mainly due to Hader being a unicorn thus far, and projections for this team are about as reliable as just throwing a dart at a board. Think about it - This team's best starter likely won't be heard from until around the AS Break, their #2 and #3 starters from last season have already spent time on the DL, their closer from last season already missed a month, their supposed starting 1B has been out 4+ weeks, their most expensive player can't stay on the field and is scuffling, and they've had periods of the season where a projected quality offensive team has really scuffled a the plate. If Fangraphs knew all of this preseason, their initial projection for the Brewers likely would've been at 65 wins.

Why would Baltimore want Addison Russell? I would think St, Louis makes better sense and they have a great array of young players. I agree, and if STL was interested in bringing in Machado they have the prospects to blow anything the Cubs could offer without gutting their MLB roster out of the water. The Cards wouldn't even necessarily need to include their top level prospects to do so.

I think this really doesn't offer a ton to the Orioles as Russell is under control 2021, which means just as the team was maybe getting good he'd be a free agent. All the other guys are mostly lottery ticket types at this point (but I honestly don't know much about any of them - perhaps I'm undervaluing them). The problem from the Cubs' standpoint of a trade like this is basically all the potential top end talent in their minor league system is at the lower levels - so they don't even have a clue whether those three lotto ticket types of prospects will amount to nothing, or whether one of them is a perennial all-star type talent. For the Cubs to make impactful trades at this point, they'll need to include volume-type deals with players from their low minor leagues AND include some of their young major league talent that at least has a few years of team control left. It just further guts their system and leads to making their MLB roster even more expensive with a shorter window to contend, since there won't be any pre-arbitration level talents coming up from within to allow the Cubs to let core players reaching free agency walk. I agree that adding Russell as the potential trade headliner really shouldn't move the needle much from Baltimore's perspective. He's already in salary arbitration and frankly he's regressed as a player since 2016. If I'm Baltimore I don't care that Russell plays SS, since Machado should probably still be at 3B anyways. I'd want a player like Schwarber, Happ, or Almora headlining a Machado deal - and if I'm the Cubs I think this might be the deadline to see what Schwarber might bring in return. He's still a train wreck defensively in LF, and he belongs in the AL as a DH.

I think the bigger financial issue for the Cubs potentially acquiring Machado is the 2019 season and them having any expectations to resigning him. The luxury tax bumps up to $206M, but in all honesty the Cubs don't have nearly the money coming off their books than what they'll need to add via salary arbitration to players like Bryant, Baez, Schwarber, Hendricks, etc. Some of their larger contracts (Heyward, Zobrist, Darvish) drop in AAV slightly next year, probably as part of their front office's plan to offset significant payroll increases brought about by pending salary arbitration, but I see no way for them to squeeze in another marquee FA contract for a guy like Machado, Harper, Kuechel, Kershaw, etc., unless they don't care about being over the luxury tax limit for multiple seasons. That said, the Cubs may be about to fall into a huge pile of their own fun money a couple seasons from now if they wind up starting their own media network and not really care too much about exactly where the luxury tax limit is as their roster gets older and much more expensive.

That's actually a great name for a racehorse..."God-Given Talent"

Also don't forget about Eloy and Cease. To me that's the trade that sticks out as a problem for the Cubs longterm, and I've felt that way since it happened last summer - they don't win it all in 2016 without Aroldis, and they weren't going to get him without including Torres unless they would've sent other young position player talent to the Yankees like Baez or Russell - both of which were key parts of the WS winning team. It's weird to say, but Torres would still be blocked at the MLB level with the Cubs, or his emergence would have otherwise forced other trades to happen in order to clear room for him. Eloy Jimenez is going to be a monster - and Quintana has been underwhelming thus far with the Cubs aside from games he pitches against the Brewers. That trade last year bolstered their rotation, but I'd argue it made their overall organization weaker. The Cubs' signing of Heyward a few offseasons ago likely prompted the other prospects like Soler and Jimenez to be dealt to improve their pitching, and that has blown up on them a bit. They still have frontline talent across their gameday roster, but no longer have quality depth behind it. A couple key injuries, particularly on the pitching front, and their lack of depth will get exposed later this summer. The Cubs are still extremely weak in the upper minors, so any deadline trades that will have major implications will almost certainly need to be headlined by a player or two currently on their MLB roster, plus including high risk/high reward talent in the minors that should be very tough for Theo and company to want to trade. Making too many of those deals involving shipping out talented players still years away from making an MLB impact is risky for any organization's longterm future.