Fear The Chorizo

"The new rules announced Monday include a general limit of six mound visits per nine-inning game without a pitching change, whether by a manager, coach or player. The changes also attempt to force half innings to start on time." I think this is fantastic, and will likely shave 5-10 minutes off games - maybe 30 minutes off Cub games when Contreras is catching... On its face it doesn't seem like much - but I guarantee a catcher typically makes more than 6 runs out to the mound during most games to either discuss a pitch selection, give a phony break for relievers to get loose, just talk to a pitcher, etc. Add in the random 2-3 pitching coach visits and this rule is already reducing these largely unnecessary breaks by 50% - not to mention the fact they are more valuable during late game situations where a manager may have a legit reason to discuss strategy and doesn't want to have to pull a pitcher.

Idk...I remember when the Brewers signed Lohse it was the end of March and he was a Boras client. I think all those Boras guys are going to wait it out as long as possible. Correct me if I'm wrong, but neither Cobb or Lynn are Boras clients...

I look at Arrieta's dip in production/velocity/etc last season compared to 2015-2016 years simply as what should be expected after logging ~470IP over those two seasons (regular + postseason). Prior to 2015, Arrieta never pitched more than 160IP in a year. The dilemma with him moving forward is at his age, does coming off a 2017 season where he wasn't ridden as hard get him back to being a frontline starter for 180-190IP a season for most of his next contract, or does he continue regressing? If it's the former he's more valuable than Darvish - if it's the latter he's unsignable for a small market team.

Sign arrieta to a 4 yr deal at a rate he's happy and the brewers are comfortable with, then trade for madbum, hamels, archer, fulmer or stroman at the deadline Arrieta Anderson Healthy nelson Chacin Davies Woodruff Deadline ace/burnes/renaissance Yo or Guerra That's a pretty good pile of rotation options ...

Sorry, but is the reason jake o. is viewed as a difference making starter here mainly because the brewers drafted him? He's had some decent seasons, but last year was far from one of them, and tampa has a bunch of young arms that are probably more talented than him - had jake o. not been traded I wouldn't have been surprised to see him out of their opening day rotation. Looks almost like a salary dump trade by a team that didn't have him in their 2018 plans...

I all but guarantee that a majority of the remaining FAs would sign somewhere within 10 minutes, particularly the ones represented by Boras, if he received a text message from Bryce Harper saying that he didn't really like how he handled his clients this offseason and he was considering finding more effective representation... I think this has more to do with Boras using his clients this winter as pawns to set things up for next offseason

Very interesting list...has anyone Boras represents in the top 50 signed a deal yet? EDIT: Nope...

By the way, how smart do Casey Close and Tanaka look for not opting out of their deal with the Yankees? Cobb and Lynn are the only remaining FA's near that top ten list not represented by Boras who haven't signed...I also see those being the more realistic options signed by the Brewers at this point. None of the top 20 FAs that signed are represented by Boras. Starting to see a pattern here? Normally, the top FAs sign relatively quickly if their perceived market value matches what clubs value them at - when a certain super agent who always overvalues his clients tries to draw a line in the sand with a talented but flawed group of clients and tries to force open a market for them that just isn't there, it looks alot like this type of offseason.

The reason it's lower though is youre buying the thought process to 170IP and not 200-215. And therein lies the reason why the premier bullpen free agents got equal to or more than what some though their market value would be, and the best starting pitchers on the market are struggling to get offers anywhere near where they thought they were valued - even the best starters aren't logging anywhere near the innings that true aces did 5 years ago. I don't care how great you are when you're on the hill, if you don't pitch as high a percentage of a team's overall innings as a similar pitcher 5 years earlier, you lose overall value that is picked up by relievers. That's why teams are more hesitant to dole out longterm deals to starters without options/optouts/performance bonuses baked in. I read it somewhere earlier, but this year's top free agents had the lowest cumulative WAR compared to recent years by far, plus the pitchers are trying to use recent contract comps as benchmarks even though the average IP totals for top starters has dropped by several games' worth of innings. Boras is trying to sell Arrieta like a 220IP/season workhorse that pitches every year like it's 2015 - in reality Arrieta's 2015-2016 unicorn seasons were the only two he got anywhere close to 200+IP, and that workload is likely the reason he's perceived as a pitcher on the decline. If Boras marketed him realistically as a veteran starter who can consistently give you 180 quality IP provided the team is smart with his workload, he'd of been signed by the end of 2017.

I'm pretty sure clancyphile is actually Brent Suter - or his agent

812 runs is a huge jump from their production last season - basically their projection indicates they're going to slug their way to alot of wins as currently constructed. Cubs at 95 now with Darvish on their roster is realistic. Brewers adding another solid rotation piece would likely bump their projection in this system up closer to 90.

trade deadline is only about 5 months away...many more impact veteran starters will come available between now and then, some of which could be had for significantly less value than what the Rays purportedly want for Archer or the Jays want for Stroman... not the end of the world by any stretch - also, it's not like the moves the Brewers have already made are for this year only.

I think this offseason is definitely going to drive discussions on how to better the system for players to get paid/reach free agency younger. I think that should include organization control at the mlb level to be reduced by 1 season, but also for a tiered structure of organization minor league control depending on the age a player was initially drafted and/or signed into pro ball. Keep the minor league control the same as it currently is for players drafted from high school, but reduce it by a 2-3 years for players drafted after their junior or senior years of college - so a college senior that has MLB promise can't be stowed away in the minor leagues to the point where he won't be a MLB free agent until the back end of his prime. reducing years of team control HAS to include significantly more revenue sharing across the league - otherwise small market teams become even more like graduated farm clubs for the big market clubs.

There is not a true revenue sharing agreement because each team negotiates their own TV contracts, as opposed to the NFL where it is very easily done at the league level. That last sentence, in my opinion, is the root of the issue. 100% bingo - until there is a level playing field financially in terms of how team payrolls can be structured, in no way can there be accusations of collusion. With the disparity in resources being primarily due to market size and TV money teams in different market sizes have to run their organization in a cyclical manner from a payroll standpoint. I don't know if there is a perfect solution to make both big and small market teams happy with revenue sharing if the model is for teams to continue negotiating their own TV/media deals, but until that gets resolved all the bickering by players, agents, and owners is due to the CBA that they all negotiated with each other. At the end of the day it looks bad for all of them to complain about a system they created for themselves to operate in.

Harper is a Boras client, correct? I actually wouldn't be surprised if Harper sits out next season because they'll be requesting a 10yr, $500 million deal...

so let me get this straight... JD Martinez is apparently the "King Kong" of slug, but 2015 was basically his 1 season in his career that he's played a full slate of games. His 2017 season was so off the charts good compared to his career average, and even his 2014-2016 production - makes you wonder what stuff Boras had him on during his contract season, doesn't it? Of course, Boras cherry picks 2017, where he hits like Lou Gherig and therefore he's deserving of 6-8 years at 25 million per. You simply don't pay that kind of coin to a 30-yr old corner outfielder who can't play defense with a career OPS in the mid-800's. But because he's not signed, apparently MLB owners are screwing the players?? I maintain that the current CBA has proven to be a dinosaur, a product of many years of rampant PED use to turn what has always proven to be a young man's game into something mid-late 30-somethings could still excel at even if they weren't generational talents. The players' union had no problem keeping the current aribitration/team control system in place because they knew good players' primes were going to extend beyond when they normally do. Now that PEDs are at least somewhat in check, you can see the shift and steep decline across the league in the number of veteran players that produce anything close to what their free agent contracts state they are worth on the field. The players simply didn't see this coming when the last CBA was negotiated and have been slow to adjust how they should prioritize getting years of team control reduced to get more younger players to free agency, but I'd be willing to bet that alot of the owners/management structures did. This offseason, the tables have sort of turned - at least temporarily...to me it's not that the owners are screwing the players, it's that they're refusing to be screwed by certain free agents that end up stagnating the overall market. Lesser free agents will have a much harder time finding work when better options at their position are still available - even if those better options are being insane with contract demands.

Seeing as Woodruff is still on preseason prospect lists, it's obviously too early to tell what sort of pitcher he'll be as a finished product in MLB - I think the combination of AAA CO Springs, the hamstring injury right in the middle of the season, and a rushed call-up to bolster a floundering rotation in early August led to his uneven 2017. This is an excerpt from an article in mid-September last year: "As the 2017 MLB season winds down, Milwaukee Brewers rookie Brandon Woodruff is a pitcher to watch for September. He’s made four starts in the majors since early August and has performed well: 1.52 ERA in 23.2 innings with a 20/9 K/BB and 17 hits allowed. He was particularly excellent in his last start against the Washington Nationals on September 2nd, giving up one run in seven innings on two hits and a walk while fanning eight. He goes up against the Pittsburgh Pirates this evening." This was written before his last 4 starts of the season, 3 of which were poor. He eclipsed 100 pitches in that Nationals start, which was the only time that happened his entire 2017, including the minors. In fact, the last time he even got close to reaching 100 pitches in the minors was in early June, right before his initial call-up that led to his hamstring injury. He got ~4 rehab appearances in CO Springs, throwing around 50 pitches per outing, before being recalled to Milwaukee, and he instantly goes 97, 98, 81, 105 his first four starts. Then his last four go 95, 94, 92, 52...to me it seems like he may have wore down due to that injury, and the timing of when it happened forced the Brewers to throw him into the fire before he was back to a typical starter workload of ~100 pitches every 5 days.

With all the pub burnes has gotten this offseason for being a quality sp prospect (rightfully so, imo), are we selling our 2016 minor league pitcher of the year short, woodruff? I keep forgetting that his 2017 was uneven due to an injury warming up for his mlb debut, then having to rehab in aaa and probably getting rushed to mlb early because of other brewer starting pitcher issues down the stretch. Hopefully he has a healthy spring training and proves to be a much better rotation piece than 2 months'worth of post injury starts last season gave him credit for!

Santana's best fit as a trade piece has to be the Indians or the red sox (if they don't sign martinez). I don't want the brewers to move him unless they get equal value in return...which is far more than 1-2 years of a middling starting pitcher, imo

This move essentially takes the cubs out of the running for next year's harper sweepstakes, AND more importantly takes them out of the equation at this year's trade deadline for an impact starter. They have no prospects of significant interest at the moment and now will be hamstrung taking on significant salary in a any trades that would also need to include one of their young mlb players as a centerpiece to acquire any difference making pitchers. We knew they would sign a starter...they were always going to be the favorite in the division anyways - theo has done a great job of turning their roster into what he did with Boston after their 1st title...they are acting like the monster market team they are, and are throwing longterm caution to the wind to try and win now. Here's hoping things progress for them like it did Boston - another title sprinkled in over the next few years amongst some uneven and disappointing seasons that leave the organization muddled 5 years from now. The brewers may be big deadline players this year, and I still think they sign a fa starter before the season starts. MadBum would be a great target if he's healthy and the giants realize they are out of it. Cole Hamel in texas, archer or stroman 5 months from now, an Indians package that includes a healthy Salazar and Kipnis, pick of diamondback starters if they falter...there will be alot of options.

I think this actually will decrease the # of Brewer fans going to these games, because more Cub fans who live in WI will take advantage of this resident presale. The Nashville Predators have this mentality when trying to keep Chicago Blackhawk fans out of their stadium during hockey games - they end up just drawing attention to their pointless infatuation with keeping another team's fans who are willing to pay more for tickets out, and more Chicago fans show up than if they had never tried to "fix" a non existent issue. Call me crazy, but once somebody owns tickets I could care less about what they do with them - use them, sell them on a secondary market for more than what they paid, donate them to charity, heck even forget about them and wind up having the seats sit bare on gameday...to each their own. I look at it as not blaming Cub or Brewer fans - blame the dregs from both fanbases who want to go to this game with the sole intention of fighting with each other instead of enjoying a dang baseball game.

We're going to find out alot more about Burnes' ceiling this year, as he should open up no lower than in AA and probably will see alot of action in AAA. His stuff is definitely MLB-starting caliber, the question becomes once he advances to levels where hitters are used to facing pitchers with MLB-caliber command, does Burnes' stuff play up to being that of a TOR starter? Scouting reports say no, but you have to give him the opportunity and benefit of the doubt until his performance proves scouting reports right or wrong. At worst, Burnes profiles as a mid-rotation starter that's probably ready for MLB by opening day 2019, if not sooner. That's an incredibly valuable prospect to have in the upper minors.

That's the problem for the whole system - nowhere near every team is capable of shelling out $$ based on past performance, and when years like this come along where most big market teams aren't players for the crop of available free agents while they keep their powder dry for next offseason and to stay under luxury tax penalty thresholds, guys aren't going to get paid. To say that teams have to pay more money for diminishing players due to age or other issues because they were underpaid 2-3 seasons earlier is just a poor organizational management philosophy. One of the major factors that is starting to drive this correction is the fact that veteran players are having more difficulties extending their prime production years with the decline of widespread PED use. Back in the good ol' days, teams had no problem paying a star player into his 40's like he was in his late 20's, because father time kept getting pushed further out with all the little chemical helpers in the game.

Won't have any effect and is pretty much a dumb idea...since it's likely a good number of cub fans going to these games are WI residents anyways

Arrieta's struggles last season were probably more a product of his innings load from 2015 and 2016, which were much higher than any prior years of his career. They rode him to a NLCS and WS title those two years. Briggs' IP totals in the previous post don't even include the playoff innings he pitched those two years. He's not going to get what him and Boras are asking for, and that's why nobody has signed him. Arrieta put up unicorn numbers for ~2 seasons from in 2015-2016, but he doesn't have a Kershaw-like body of work to command 25 million + per season for at least 1/2 a decade at his age. And I agree, the Cubs are apprehensive to sign him because they already have Lester locked in as their over 30 declining veteran starter with a crazy contract, Heyward is an albatross, and a bunch of their young core is going to start getting much more expensive via arbitration. They're going to need to do some payroll gymnastics with their current roster to avoid sustained luxury tax issues the next few seasons, let alone adding to it via more free agent signings.