Fear The Chorizo

The Brewers did sign Chacin this offseason, right? He was a FA starting pitcher, right? I know this offseason seems like it's lasted forever and a day, but the posts about wishing the Brewers got something done on the pitching front fail to include all the moves they actually made to improve their pitching staff - bullpen included. Look at their 2017 opening day pitching staff and compare it to what this season's will likely be. Even without including Nelson in this year's mix - it's markedly improved from a talent standpoint.

The rotation isn’t good enough to compete with the Cubs. At all. Who are the Cubs' rotation options when the 2-3 starting pitchers inevitably go down with even minor injuries/ailments that cause them to miss starts? The answer is that those options are currently far worse than what the Brewers have. If they get continued regression from an aging Lester and even one of the rest of their rotation options gets injured or underperforms, their rotation is simply more expensive compared to Milwaukee's in terms of potential production when you factor in teams regularly need 10 pitchers to make starts for them during a regular season - not 5. The Cubs did their rotation upgrading over the past 2 seasons by emptying their farm and in free agency - unless they are fine with trading some of their young position player talent off the MLB team (most of which really isn't that young anymore in terms of team control), they can't be players at this year's deadline for an impact starter because they don't have anything of value in the minor leagues. If they stay healthy, their rotation is probably the 3rd best in the NL and it would've been very difficult for the Brewers to pitch well enough to be the better team even with adding Cobb or Arrieta. But depth is currently the Cubs' biggest weakness, much like some of Theo's Red Sox squads who underperformed a few years between WS titles once injuries or key players had down seasons.

Guerra was the Brewers' opening day starter last season after a strong and surprising 2016, and his year got derailed by his calf injury on a bunt attempt. If he's healthy and anything like the Guerra of 2016, penciling him in towards the bottom of the rotation is a big upgrade from their 2017 #5 slot. However, it's entirely possible he opens at AAA because of his unique option still remaining - because the Brewers may have better options to open the regular season in the rotation and their early season schedule doesn't really require a #5 starter very often. The regular season is 162 games long - I keep reminding myself that the first 5 starters for Milwaukee last season were Guerra, Davies, Wily Peralta, Anderson, and Millone - and they broke camp with a dumpster fire of bullpen...and still managed to win 86 games. LOTS can change and will. The Cubs 1-5 obviously looks better on paper than Milwaukee's opening day rotation - they sure as hell had to pay for it in contracts and prospect equity over the past few years. Look a bit further and realize that after options 1-5 for them, there's essentially an empty cupboard within the organization, particularly from a young SP standpoint. The inevitable injury or two is going to force them to start guys who hope to provide the production that a Miley could give Milwaukee. Sticking with the Brewers, I believe Woodruff needs every opportunity in 2018 to earn a MLB rotation spot. Couple that with Anderson, Davies, the Brewers' own FA starting pitcher signing in Chacin, a returning Nelson, and by all indicators a soon to be MLB-ready Burnes, their rotation is suddenly filled out with homegrown and cheaply acquired talent. That doesn't even include Suter, Guerra, and the Miley-type vets brought in to provide depth and bullpen flexibility. Depending on how this season goes, IMO 2nd half 2018 or start of 2019 would still be a pretty good opportunity for the Brewers to give their organization's best arm a shot at the rotation - Hader. And as has been mentioned often, there will be plenty of quality starting pitchers available at this year's trade deadline considering this year's MLB landscape - It wouldn't surprise me at all to see starters like DeGrom, Stroman, Archer, Baumgarner, Hamels, Duffy, Fulmer, etc. be on the block. I see the 2018 season shaping up alot like the 2008, where the Brewers opened the year with a strong offensive lineup and solid bullpen, but a questionable-on paper rotation only to bring in Sabathia at the deadline and go on a roll that had many people thinking they could do serious postseason damage until Sheets broke down and ruined their chances. That year, there weren't a ton of teams considering themselves "contenders", and many of the division leaders weren't in the market for starting pitchers or didn't have the minor league capital to acquire one. As for continuing to view the Yelich and Cain acquisitions as justification to force another FA starter signing to "go for it" stronger in 2018 - that's not seeing the forest through the trees. I am definitely curious with how the opening day roster will shake out with the glut of OF/1B options on this team, but moves to bring in position players for 5 seasons don't require a forced improvement to the rotation in year 1.

Hiura's ETA is 2019. He's likely a better hitter right now than all 3 of the 2B options. In a different era, back in 1974, Brewer brass realized in spring training that the kid, Robin Yount, was better than what they had at SS so he made the team at age 18. There was no arbitration years and control years to consider back then. Had there been, he probably would have a nickname other than The Kid. Molitor was a major league ready bat right out of University of Minnesota too and made the jump from Midwest League. Barring injury or absolutely brutal defense at 2B this season, Hiura definitely appears to be in the mix for the 2B job in Milwaukee next spring - might be one of those June 2019 callups. Never a question about his offense, and any concerns about lack of power are more than offset by both his position and his ability to put the bat on the ball.

Would love to to just prove this thread completely wrong and have Braun avoid the DL entirely this season. Wishful thinking, but consider me an optimist! I think the experiment with him at 1B has everything to do with trying to make it happen. 1B is a different position for Braun to adjust to, but it's the easiest defensive position to play on the diamond from an athletic/wear and tear standpoint. And it's not like playing in the infield is foreign to him. Braun was the U of Miami's starting shortstop and 3B in college and didn't really play OF until it was obvious that he had throwing accuracy issues on plays MLB third baseman have to make.

I still find it hard to believe that Stearns thought spending the money to sign Cain or the prospects to acquire Yelich (blocking Santana/Braun) was more important than spending that capital to upgrade our rotation. If you look at it from the perspective of targeting a rotation upgrade at this year's trade deadline, and understanding that both Cain and Yelich are going to be key parts of this team for the next 5 years that will change the team's overall offensive approach, the moves look a lot less curious. Look at the 2018 landscape for the NL - even if the Brewers signed multiple top FA starters this offseason, their rotation and roster wouldn't compare to what the Dodgers, Cubs, and Nationals are able to run out onto the field for 2018. 2017's 86-win team weakness last season was actually offense, not pitching. The Brewers have depth at the upper minor league and pre-arbitration MLB levels that needs to be sorted out before they know exactly what to target to improve their roster - like it or not, the best path for this organization is to throw more of their cost-controlled young pitching into the fire to see what sticks. I'll be very disappointed if Woodruff isn't in the opening day rotation solely because of this - I don't care that he still has MiLB options remaining. Realistically, three months into this season the Brewers are going to be in the mix for a playoff spot regardless of what their opening day rotation is - depending on what the MLB landscape looks like there are going to be a bunch of veteran starters available to acquire via trade from teams. Also, no matter how the dust settles the Brewers' first five starters for 2018 are going to look better on paper than Guerra, Davies, Wily Peralta, Anderson, and Millone did to open 2017...

basically trading one past his prime perimeter pass catcher for another by cutting Jordy and signing Graham - however the Packers always seem to keep 18 wideouts on their roster and have really struggled to find consistent TE play. I always thought Graham was a terrible fit for what Seattle wanted to do offensively - Brees and Payton made him the star he was by playing towards his stengths as a matchup nightmare with a QB that could dissect a defense and innovative formations that put him at the advantage when the ball was snapped. Here's hoping Rodgers & company found a guy who I feel is a better player now than Cook was 2 seasons ago.

If the MRI reveals something that requires extended time away or even surgery, the Brewers have to cut him to save $ that can be put towards adding salary around the trade deadline. They could roll with what they have left in terms of healthy catchers, but there will likely be other veteran backstop options available at the end of spring training, too. This could be where a player like Broxton or Aguilar could be used to acquire a decent veteran catcher from a team not hellbent on contending this season.

Yep sadly I think that's gonna happen... Such a severe disappointment. This was the offseason to get a SP because going forward we will not be competing with the big money offers SPs will be getting. No way would I have wanted the Brewers to shell out what either Darvish or Arrieta wound up getting on an $/yr basis. Even with all the collusion talk and slow process of signing contracts, those premier guys went to big market clubs at annual contract rates most MLB organizations can't afford - along with getting player-friendly opt-outs to become a free agent again after a couple seasons if they wish. Lynn is a 1yr deal that would be appropriate for a Milwaukee if this was a "go for it" year that would be followed by a likely rebuild - this team is not built like that at all. Maybe they still land Cobb at a contract that makes sense for both sides, but they did already sign Chacin to a multi year deal to bolster their rotation along with bringing in a pile of scrap heap vets who look like at least some will break camp with the major league club. I think there will be plenty of veteran starters available at the trade deadline who the Brewers can target that could significantly upgrade their rotation down the stretch...MadBum, Hamels, Stroman, Duffy, Archer, etc. Plus, I think the Brewers have to sort through the budget-friendly depth (Suter, Miley, Yo, Guerra, Wilkerson, Woodruff, etc) they already have before just assuming they need upgrades at 40% of their rotation - particularly with a guy like Nelson coming back and arms like Burnes progressing.

It's not an anomoly when you look at it from the perspective of an entire team and are looking for reasons why the Brewers didn't score as many runs as other teams. Also, Milwaukee was dead last across MLB in both sac flies and batted fly balls in general - couple that with leading the majors in K's while two of the best MLB offenses (Houston and Cleveland) had the lowest K #'s, and it's not too difficult to see why the Brewers struggled to score runs - IIRC, they were ok during the 1st half of 2017 offensively, but then fell off a cliff and ranked among the bottom of the league in many offensive categories the final 3 months of the season. Go back through the game threads to see how many times the Brewers had opportunities to either add tack on runs or blow a game wide open, only to repeatedly squander those chances. Their situational hitting as a team was dreadful, but during the 2nd half of the season the game situation didn't matter - it was dreadful across the board.

I still look at this year's trade deadline for when the brewers add an impact starter via trade...and there will be plenty of them on the market then. That said, I still think cobb may be a brewer, too

I think any opt out Arrieta would want to do would come after 2 years, so he isn't back on the fa market next offseason only to be overshadowed by Kershaw. He is still going to be looking for a contract that has 4 years of $ on it to take away the risk of an injury this season ruining any chance at one last big payday, and any opt out would be a player option only.

4 years, 85 Million, with a player option to opt out after year 2

I don't get why Cain is an obvious overpay when in reality he was likely the best FA player available this offseason based on his position value and previous 3 years of WAR. Noted before, but he was actually one of the few FAs where there appeared to be multiple teams actively pursuing him, too. JD Martinez's career WAR is 13.7 and he just got 5 yrs, 110 Million. Cain's is 5 yrs 80 Million. I don't want to sign a pile of veteran "bargain basement" FAs and take up 4-6 MLB roster spots that may all give you 1-2 WAR each under perfect circumstances - when it's likely the Brewers already have internal options that can meet or exceed that net level of production across a handful of roster spots who are younger and cheaper.

I think the concept of having one of the 5 rotation spots being a piggy-back / bullpen game makes sense for a pitching staff like what the Brewers may break camp with - their pen will likely have 2-3 guys capable of being long relievers based on career experience starting, and without Nelson or a FA starter brought in, the #5 spot will likely be filled by a guy like Miley or Guerra. As the brewer rotation currently is shaping up, they will have multiple starters who can't be consistently relied upon to go more than 6 IP - they will need 2-3 arms in the pen who can give them multiple innings, and not just during games that are blowouts. They will need the combination of Suter, Miley, Guerra, Woodruff, Wilkerson, Yo, etc to cover rotation spots #4-5 and provide two long relief options. I wouldn't call it a hard piggyback situation, but they will have enough versatility to shift starters based on matchups and who's well-rested while not needing to worry so much about a typical #5 starter's routine. That said, I still think it's a bad idea to do over an entire season - I see this as a stop gap measure until Nelson returns, one of these options establishes themselves as the best starting option, and/or a FA starter is signed and ready to go. We've got to remember, the 5 Brewer starters to open the 2017 season were Guerra, Davies, Wily Peralta, Anderson, and Millone - teams that think their rotation is solid and set when they break camp with little/no depth are asking for pitching woes down the road as inevitable injuries crop up (see Cubs - 2018 version). This year's Cub rotation is a talented #1-5 with the addition of Darvish - however, aside from shifting Montgomery back to a starting role, they're going to have little/no depth that even resembles MLB-caliber beyond their opening day rotation. I see them struggling to be players at the trade deadline for starting pitching due to a complete dearth of prospect talent in their system now, too. They will pitch poorly at times this year because injuries will force them to use bad starting pitchers. If they suffer a couple injuries that are major, their team could be looking at a Red Sox-like dropoff for the season, similar to some of the down years that team had with Theo at the helm between WS titles after he obliterated that organization's depth in search of bolstering talent on the 25-man gameday roster.

not particularly young in terms of age, but the roster is highly controlled in terms of both arbitration status and veteran contract terms. And, the overall depth of this organization is light years ahead of where it was 2-3 seasons ago when stearns took over.

If the Brewers don't sign any of Arrieta, Cobb, or Lynn - those 3 would be hard-pressed to find 3 other teams across MLB that will sign them at the rate things are going before the regular season starts. And say they do sign one of them 3 weeks from now to a contract that's palatable to the Brewers' long term budget restraints - they won't be pitching in Milwaukee until late April, so the Brewers will still need to use arms like Miley, Guerra, Wilkerson, etc for a handful of starts. Regarding Walker, I don't want to derail the thread but do we know for sure he's 100% healthy? He actually sat quite a few games down the stretch for the Brewers in September, even though he was raking - only 1 year removed from back surgery and partially tore a hammy last season...we need to remember there are 29 other MLB teams that could've signed him if they wanted to, also. The roster appears to be jumbled, yes - but they are still 3.5 weeks from opening day. Roster moves and minor trades start happening over the next week or so once spring training rosters start getting trimmed down and pitchers get more stretched out - and teams take a look at what their actual game day rosters look like and see if there are options to fill holes from lack of depth or injuries. I have faith the Brewers 25-man roster will make alot more sense, and fully anticipate guys like Broxton and Aguilar to be moved for some low minor league pieces with upside. 3-4 weeks ago many were exploring trades to send Santana + pieces to Cleveland in exchange for Salazar + Kipnis, etc - how'd that look now that Salazar has proven to be the injury-prone arm he's always been? Stearns knows what he's doing. As for Cain's market - it wasn't that soft, as there were other teams involved at the yearly pricetag the Brewers were offering. Them adding the 5th year sealed the deal.

It'd be nice for both cobb and arrieta to sign with anyone at this point so these two threads can be put out of their misery

I get that Perez is super versatile defensively (although he plays many positions 'meh', not well), but why wouldn't he be the odd man out of the trio being discussed should Walker get signed? Perez is much more allergic to taking a walk than Villar, and I think this roster wouldn't consider Perez extra valuable just because he can wear alot of gloves - they already have more than enough and better OF options without him. I really feel that if the Brewers wanted Walker over the options they have now, he'd be in their camp. If they do opt to bring him in as the predominant starting 2B, I'd rather have either a combination of Sogard + Villar, or Villar + Perez to round out the IF portion of the roster. Looking at Villar, something between his 2017 and 2016 seasons is still better than any of the other options, including Walker.

The longer this drags out, these guys have to realize that they are going to get worse deals, right? I mean, just because some team might suffer a starter getting injured isn't going to suddenly get arrieta 6 years and 150 million...

He's obviously proved everyone that passed on him wrong. Albert Pujols was drafted in the 13th round so just because he was drafted in the fourth doesn't mean he's not a great pitcher This statement just totally makes my point re: Burnes...he has yet to log a MLB inning and his minor league performance to date is being utilized to group him in with 1st ballot HOFers who also happened to be drafted a bit lower. I'm as excited as the next person to see if Burnes can be really good at the major league level. But let him get there first and get some perspective! There are 10x more players drafted in the mid-late rounds who set the minor league world on fire only to be average or worse at the MLB level. It's not about his fantastic performance to date proving teams that passed on him 2-3 times wrong - hell, the Brewers passed on him multiple times before drafting Burnes, too. With all due respect to woodruff his milb numbers aren't close to burnes. as an earlier post pointed out, they actually are based on similar minor league levels - Woodruff went through the same levels Burnes did one year older.

I'm not dismissing burnes at all, I just think people need not assume based on 1.5 minor league seasons where he barely pitched above class A that he's a perennial all star pitcher. As burnes progresses towards mlb, I wouldn't be shocked to see his numbers drift more towards that of a mid rotation starter - still incredibly valuable but not max scherzer... Sheets was pretty much the last college pitcher draftee to dominate minor league levels right away...oh, and woodruff. Sheets was a TOR talent, which was why he went high in the 1st round the year he was drafted.

I think the burnes hype needs to be tempered alot. He's basically where woodruff was at this point last spring in his development, and somehow many on the board view woodruff as a #4-5 sp talent while also viewing burnes as a TOR untradeable unicorn. I have high hopes for him, but let's see what burnes does at advanced milb levels against competition he's no longer more polished than by being a collegiate draftee. I'm rooting for him, but am also realistic that the aura of burnes being a prospect who hasn't scuffled yet probably makes him appear much better than what he will be at the MLB level. There's a reason he was a 4th round pick out of college, too.

I think a slimmed-down Schwarber just has a better chance of injuring himself running a little faster in the outfield after misjudging another flyball - his value to any team is what he does at the plate offensively with power. He's still a potentially elite power bat that doesn't have a position on a NL team, which IMO makes him a LH hitting version of Santana.

Until the NBA and NFL stop treating the NCAA like their farm systems and have their own development leagues for talent out of high school, this will never markedly change for the better - if major universities were smart and still wanted these sports as revenue generators, the power conferences would leave the NCAA and create their own governing body. You don't see the NCAA being nearly the problem for college baseball, in large part because MLB has their own farm systems and elite amateur talent is routinely drafted right out of high school. Colleges are supposed to be focused on education, and in recent decades they've gone off the rails in terms of focusing on the almighty dollar - particularly with athletics at the D1 level.