Fear The Chorizo

I still think Hader gets a legitimate shot at making the opening day rotation, and would likely shift back to a bullpen role the 2nd half of this season once either Nelson returns or another starter is acquired via trade at this year's deadline. That sort of a workload would likely give a healthy Hader 125-150IP this season, and would really set him up to be a fulltime starter in 2019. He should at least get the opportunity - if he falls flat on his face in Spring Training or early in the season, they can always shift him back to the relief role. Think of the recent bullpen signings the Brewers have made -they have alot of arms to throw against the wall and piece together a pen without Hader that are better options than what their pen looked like at the start of last season. Also, they could probably find a quality late inning reliever via trade that won't cost near as much as a controllable starter in prospects.

Some of the FA game also has to do with keeping the players union happy by not accepting an offer that sets future precedent for less years or less annual value for a perceived player value at the top of the market. There are multiple parties playing chicken. I'm starting to wonder if all the buildup to next year's free agent bonanza will result in a talent like Bryce Harper sitting out a year, because his asking price will be so outrageous teams won't pony up and his team will refuse to budge. I mean, will any team really want to be roughly 25% towards the luxury tax threshold every year for at least the next 4-5 seasons (assuming player opt outs baked into a harper deal that would allow him to enter free agency again after a few seasons) with the contract of one corner OF?

Building a mlb roster never should be done by completely ruling out ways to improve it, regardless of market size. If people don't see archer as a top tier starter that should seriously be looked at by the brewers via trade, then it's obvious whatever path their life has led them down besides being a mlb gm was an improvement. He would easily be their best starter even with a healthy nelson in the fold. That said, archer isn't a pitcher that Stearns should just cut a blank check of prospects to tampa for, particularly when he could be even more available via trade at this year's deadline or next offseason...the brewers are far from paInted into a corner here.

and only 10 of those games are played on the road at an AL stadium where there's actually a DH - so I guess 30 PAs a game? perhaps the "DH" also counts for pinch hit opportunities, but one would think many of the pinch hit ABs in NL games would just be grouped wherever that hitter plays the field the next 1/2 inning -

This is projecting our win total before the offseason is done. To be fair, it's projecting everyone's win total before the offseason is done, and they acknowledge issues with current projections even beyond their typical flaws/weaknesses due to data gaps and roster questions. It'll be interesting to see where they have the Brewers as opening day approaches, when their roster and everyday lineup has more clarity - and I'll likely take whatever that projection is and automatically add ~5 wins to it, since I feel the fangraphs' projection model tends to bias low towards teams built like the Brewers. However, I think regardless of what baseball statisticians say, all team preseason projections are loosely based on perceptions of how good a team is supposed to be, and then individual player projection data gets skewed to better fit those perceptions. Teams heavy on young talent, with players that have a limited MLB history, or with a lot of aging veterans teetering on the regression cliff are more difficult to project, both from a "fangraphs" and a "crotchety old scout" methodology - that's why no matter how you look at and utilize data in baseball, a human element that's more than capable of being biased drives everything.

Yes I would fully expect Gallardo and Guerra to have ERA's over 4.80, and the jury is still out on Woodruff. Does the same go for Anderson, Davies, and Chacin? Fangraph thinks so, and those 3 are getting WAY more IP than Gallardo and Guerra will be in the rotation...

In looking closer at how the projections are broken down for the Brewers, I think they are struggling with what certain players' and pitchers' roles will actually be for 2018...also, they still have the Pirates ahead of the Brewers in the NL Central standings. Pitching: If healthy, Hader will pitch a ton more than the projected 55 IP Guys like Webb and Drake are extremely unlikely to pitch 40IP each in 2018 Brent Suter will not pitch around 150IP for this roster, no matter how many supposed rotation holes they currently have Their entire starting rotation is apparently a 5.0 ERA staff, even though most of the projected starting 5 have career ERAs under 4, with the exception being Woodruff's partial 2017. Position Players - just to name a couple: - Cain's production will apparently take a 50% WAR reduction by playing 1/2 his games in a much more hitter and fielder-friendly ballpark. - Ryan Braun is apparently the current roster's pinch hitter/4th OF option based on the projected # of plate appearances - for the DH position, Fangraphs factors in 300 plate appearances for the Brewers - that's conservatively 60 games' worth of ABs for a DH. Problem with that projection is that the Brewers play nowhere near 60 road interleague games in AL parks. I'm sure Fangraphs tries to factor in actual opponents on the 2018 schedule and where these games are played with these projections, but enough stinks about it just by looking at 1 teams issues for me to put pretty much no weight in what they say two months before opening day, particularly when rosters are in flux throughout MLB right now.

Meh, depends what you mean by quite a bit...they also have no rotation depth and don't have someone like Nelson who could give their rotation a boost midseason without having to make a trade.

If it's starting pitching we are focused on, is the cubs rotation this minute actually that much better? Also, do the fangraphs projections actually add up to the total amount of wins and losses across all of mlb and based on individual teams schedules? Seems like they always tend to biased towards low win totals...

Looking at the current Brewers' pitching staff, I'm wondering if the addition of one of the FA starting pitchers would be the last move made for pitching, coupled with some other moves to even out the 25-man roster position player-wise (i.e., moving Broxton, sorting out the corner OF/1B situation with Braun/Thames/Aguilar/santana, 2b??). I think with the addition of a quality FA starter, they've got enough to at least get to the AS Break and be in arguably a better position to trade for another impact starter or bullpen piece if necessary. Hopefully Nelson factors into the roster later this season, too. If they wanted, they could stretch Hader out to be a starter with the expectation of moving him back to the pen to make room for Nelson or a mid-season SP acquisition...that would keep Hader's innings limited to the 150 or so he'll be slated to pitch this season if he stays healthy, and it would provide a body of work to determine whether his future is in the rotation or the pen. If Santana isn't traded before the season starts, I'd almost be excited to see some of the lineups rolled out early on in the season. The other thing is right now there looks to be a huge logjam of corner OF's and 1b on the roster, but spring training has a way of sorting logjams out. The brewers are in a good position in that they have options/flexibility, and can wait for other teams looking to contend to run out of them and spur a trade. Opening day is still two full months away...lots of time for the current and even additional teams kicking the tires on potential trades with the Brewers to make a deal. I also agree that the Brewers could make the trade to acquire Archer, I just question the pieces Tampa would be looking for in return aren't a good fit for the Brewers to give up - especially compared to a trade package Cleveland would probably find more attractive. Tampa would almost certainly demand our best pitching prospects, while Cleveland could probably be swayed to send a package centered around Salazar for a package centered around Santana.

What Mejia could provide offensively at the C position makes him an organizational building block - if he can stick there defensively. The only reason Cleveland would be open to trading him is because they have other veteran catchers under contract on their MLB roster and they are trying to win it all right now before their window closes and they need a RH power bat. Mejia becoming an everyday MLB contributor is probably at least 1-1.5 seasons away, which doesn't help them this year. 1.5-2 seasons from now, Cleveland's MLB roster will look very different and their division will be much more competitive. From a Brewers' perspective, I'd do a Santana for Mejia trade straight up in a heartbeat, and would be fine with including Nottingham. I'm still bummed Lucroy vetoed that trade and Mejia isn't getting himself ready for AAA in CO springs for the brewers.

Not only this, but we have 5 years of Yelich after coming off two .800+ OPS seasons in a pitchers' park, rather than 6 years of Brinson starting with the inevitable growing pains of figuring out major league pitching and MAYBE becoming a Yelich-level player for the last 3-4 years of his team control. This is 100% why I'm ok with losing Brinson in this deal. Plus, you open up 40 man roster space that would've inevitably had to go to Harrison and Diaz this season and likely Yamamoto after next season - talented prospects who aren't ready for the majors for at least another 2-3 seasons. It's the same type of trade the Astros made with the Brewers when they acquired Gomez and Fiers - they sent out talented prospects, obviously, but they weren't near ready to contribute at the MLB level for them and were likely to be part of a very crowded 40man roster problem, because their management at the time (including Stearns, btw) figured younger players in their organization were going to start crowding prospects out. Unless Yelich suffers a career-derailing injury, we get basically all his prime years at a nice price, whereas the Astros got a gimpy Gomez and over-his-head performing Fiers for a couple.

let's revisit that question after this weekend...something tells me they aren't close to being done.

regarding payroll concerns, while they are always an issue in Milwaukee, this team did get through the past few seasons on limited payrolls, I believe. Not all of that savings went towards improving concessions or installing stadium videoboards - perhaps there was enough in the "rainy day/happy day" fund and revenue sharing dollars for Mark A to tell Stearns that he was good with balooning payroll up a bit, particularly when it looks like revenues league-wide are jumping.

this offseason has dragged on so slowly that teams eyeing Santana in a potential trade aren't going to suddenly jump ship or ask for more Brewer prospects to finish the deal because of yesterday's acquisitions in Milwaukee. It's very likely that any Santana trade agreed to in principal between GM's hinged on both the Yelich deal and even moreso the Cain signing. Since Cain's signing won't be official until today, I believe, a Santana trade couldn't happen 1st. I'm intrigued by the idea of a Santana, Cain, Yelich OF with Braun at 1st if and only if another FA starting pitcher gets signed. Otherwise, I'd rather use Santana in a trade to acquire a starter in hopes that Braun puts together a reasonably healthy season in left. I think Cleveland's a better fit than Tampa based more on Santana headed towards arbitration already after 2018. An Archer trade probably would require pitching prospects headed to Tampa in addition to Santana, and I think we all know who that would be. Cleveland has some SP depth and they are obviously in a position to win now - so they'd be more willing to bolster a hole in the MLB lineup and worry about Santana's increasing cost later without having to get pitching prospects as part of a deal, especially if the Brewers take back Salazar/Kipnis as part of a potential trade.

To bad Ray didn't pan out so either he was a gem still in the system or included in this trade, allowing us to keep Harrison or Brinson. I'm going to give Ray at least one more MiLB season before saying a 5th overall draft pick didn't pan out. Yes, he's been disappointing thus far...but the talent is still there to drastically improve on-field results. This trade essentially swings the door wide open for him to play everyday at whatever level he needs to be at and progress towards MLB. Harrison basically broke out in the AFL, but has still been inconsistent at best - yes, his ceiling is sky high, but I'd like to see him do it in the minor leagues 1-2 more seasons before feeling confident he could realize that potential. I'm sure the Brewers could've found a way to make it work, but he was going to need to be protected on their 40 man this year clearly before he was ready to contribute in Milwaukee. To me, the main thing that could hold Brinson back is injuries - and from the Brewers' perspective he profiled as a player they would have needed to be very patient with to allow him to adjust to the majors. I think he'll have a nice MLB career, but it's not like we didn't get an already great player in return for him - and Yelich will be a Brewer basically as long as Brinson will be a Marlin before he reaches free agency.

what if that something else/SP is Archer and then the Brewers still sign another FA starter?

don't forget about Perez on the roster, he could always serve as a swing corner OF if the Brewers would want to roll with Braun, Cain, Yelich, and one of Phillips/Broxton. If Archer's coming here, we're going to lose some young pitching...

Lists discussing no upcoming 40 man roster crunch fail to include guys like burnes and hiura, or some other very young prospects who will force their way towards mlb quickly if injuries don't derail them. This trade reminds me of what Houston did to stay ahead of their own 40 man issues before some of their older prospects got crunched out. This trade clears 3 players from that 40 man issue (diaz, brinson, and harrison), and replaces them with 5 years of a great all around outfielder in his prime at a bargain price. It's a great trade unless you overvalue prospects and don't realize that the brewers minor league cup board is far from bare.

Love this move, as burnes and hiura are still brewers, and yelich fills key of spot for the next 5 seasons at a good price. The brewers gave up some prospects that are boom/bust potential, and I wish them well in miami. Truth is that if any of the players dealt wind up being as good as yelich in their mlb careers, it will be a surprise, and this trade is for 5 years of yelich, not 1 or 2!

I think it's actually not a bad plan, given that the NFL will likely lose a season after 2020 due to a strike after the current CBA runs out. Depending on when the XFL would schedule their season, they could benefit greatly from that. still hope there's a sport for He Hate Me...

how far away is our SS prospects from the majors in everyone opinion? long enough not to risk trading Arcia away unless you bring back somebody to play that position (and play it well) for 3 seasons, IMO. The Brewers do have a lot of MIF prospects, but the potential starting caliber SS's are mostly a few years away. Dubon is an option, but I think he's actually a better fit at 2B or would serve well as a utility IF. 2018 will likely be the year some of those younger prospects hopefully separate themselves and prove they are MLB-caliber, but more seasoning is needed. If our supposed window to really go after it is still 2-3 seasons out, I'd rather have an established Arcia at SS in 2020 than a prospect an high A currently.

Yes, but Escobar on those 2012-14 Brewer teams would've been a huge defensive upgrade at the most premium defensive position on the field. Some of the other players given up in that trade may have winded up being better overall players at their respective positions, but trading away Escobar and replacing him with Yuni B and having a bare cupboard behind him in the organization for young SS's really hurt the Brewers' at the MLB level more than letting Cain, Jeffress, or Odorizzi go individually. I guess the point I was trying to make was I think Arcia will be a better overall player at SS than Escobar as he matures because he has a much higher offensive ceiling, IMO.

I view Arcia as the type of young MLB player a team like the Brewers should build around provided they don't force him into an offensive role that's outside his likely progression. To me he's similar to Alicedes Escobar with alot more pop offensively, and I've always though his inclusion in the Greinke trade stung this organization the most - had the Brewers found a way to work that trade and keep Escobar in Milwaukee playing SS, there's no Yuni B. I'd rather add another premium prospect who hasn't yet reached the majors before moving Arcia.

I struggle to understand the argument against trading for a player of yelich's caliber being "we aren't one yelich away from winning the division". First off, acquiring yelich for 5 seasons through his prime makes the brewers a better team each of those 5 seasons than if they didn't have him. Secondly, getting a yelich allows the brewers to focus on other positions of need to improve the roster in 2019, 2020, and 2021. The last round of contending brewer teams didn't have all their homegrown prospects called up and trades happen in one offseason. Viewing moves like this in a vacuum conflicts with how MLB rosters are built and evolve due to a myriad of situations. And as presently constructed, you simply can't state that the cubs are automatically 10 games better than the brewers - so dismissing their postseason chances in january when there are still a lot of bullets in the brewers' ammo clip to be fired is pretty shortsighted even when looking at just the 2018 season.