Fear The Chorizo

Yeah that's just not realistic and a pipe dream even from their point of view. Cease pitched like a mid rotation starter in 2023, and his 2022 season where he nearly won a Cy Young has been by far and away his statistical outlier for performance and not the other way around. If the starting point for a Cease trade in the White Sox eyes is that level of prospect talent, than Cease is untradeable - which is a mistake from the White Sox' management. One thing that is noticeable in recent player for prospect trades is people undervalue what impact prospects are worth across baseball - there just aren't many trades anymore with guys 1-2 years out from free agency that return top 25 in all of MLB-caliber talent when they have yet to play at the MLB level. i actually think a trade for Cease could come together from the Brewers using some reasonably expendable prospect pieces, starting with one of the young MLB OFs and then including a less-developed minor league arm or two that may become quality MLB starters but need multiple years of development and a good amount of luck with health/performance before arriving in the majors...similar to what Cease was considered when he was part of the trade from the Cubs in return for Quintana that got him to the south side to begin with. (Jimenez + Cease went to the sox).

True, and it needs to be with how their system treats them alot like running backs. Deebo is a tough SOB but he's a walking mash unit at 28....Kittle is 30...Aiyuk is about to be playing in his 5th year option season on his rookie contract and likely needs a huge extension to stick around longterm. McCaffrey is a stud RB, but the volume of touches he's gotten is just asking for him to sustain a significant injury or just plum wear down in a big hurry, too. On Defense, Greenlaw probably just got himself cut by rupturing his achilles running onto the field (~$3M cap hit instead of paying him $8M to sit on IR all next season), Chase Young is likely signing elsewhere because they have no cap room - and multiple guys in their front 7 now have steep cap hits for the next few seasons that are going to require significant restructuring when the time comes for the 49ers to offer Purdy any kind of contract that allows him to afford living in San Francisco without having a roommates.com profile. This was the 49ers' year to win it - it now gets much, much harder for them to sustain their recent successes with the roster they have, even if they find a way to keep everyone around.

Both of those defenses were completely gassed....but credit goes to Spagnuolo being aggressive at key moments in the 4th and OT to force fg attempts by having hot reads covered behind well schemed blitzes. And Mahomes is absolutely that dude in the NFL right now. The assumption is that the 49ers will be the nfc favorite again next year, but that talented roster is now a year older, more expensive, and thinner. And while Purdy is a great fit in their system and right now is very inexpensive, the 49ers will be needing more from that position as time goes on as they won't be as dominant everywhere else on the field from a talent standpoint.

Hader was drafted out of high school and wasn't a big ticket bonus baby - even with that, he had to spend parts of 6 seasons logging about 550 IP working his way up through the minors before he wound up in Milwaukee as a reliever. I don't blame Hader for a second wanting to try and maximize his arbitration value chasing saves, and then doing what he could to preserve his health after 11+ seasons of pitching professionally when he was at the doorstep of his one shot at a huge payday in free agency approaching 30 yrs old as a high leverage late inning reliever. That being said, it's not the Brewers he's upset with/bashing - it's the arbitration system. Doubt he'll discuss/admit it, but I think his wife's pregnancy complications early in that 2022 season put alot about his baseball career and priorities for him and his family into a different perspective than the whole "aw shucks, I'll do whatever the team needs me to do" mentality.

Yep, artifact of an era where it was a surprise when starters didn't go 7+IP

In the specific situation that led to him getting suspended during his prime as a pitcher, Bauer was the victim. Dislike him for shining light on it if you want or criticize him for putting himself in that situation to begin with based on terrible judgment, but I'm not going to be upset at him for trying to clear his name. And he's not trying to say he's a saint in all this, either. He has spoken about making reckless decisions and mistakes in the past - and has openly stated he's tried to learn from that and change his off the field personal life. I'd honestly rather have a person continue to be out there publicly dealing with what comes with trying to earn a second chance rather than effectively canceling himself by deleting social media/shying away from publicity/etc. What people see who are open to signing Bauer on this type of deal is a pitcher who's won a Cy Young award and could have easily won more had he been able to pitch in MLB the past 3 seasons - he's proven to be a durable starter to give a team 175+IP a season. Without the baggage, some well-earned and now some assumed/implied, a pitcher of Bauer's caliber would be making $30+M a season.

You forgot, "Brewers make trade, but didn't get enough in return after comparing any actual trade package with their cherry-picked or at times nonexistent package that always includes at least one untradeable prospect from a different team. " Or, find a way to insert piggybacking any pitcher even if it means having a 20 man staff on a 26 man roster, along with worrying about how any position player signing may limit Yelich's playing time at 1B. Brewer offseason in a nutshell

I still think the Brewers should make a splash move and sign one of the FA righthanded DHs - JD Martinez or Jorge Soler - to solidify their everyday lineup and add more pop, particularly against lefthanded pitching. I also think 1 more veteran starter that has the track record of taking the ball every 5th day and giving you 200 IP would be incredibly valuable to this team....which is why Bauer makes a ton of sense from an onfield performance standpoint. Frankly, they probably have the budget to still do both, and I hope they make at least one of these type of moves.

Junis is an ideal arm to plug into this staff at a very team-friendly cost - solid option for a long reliever but could easily fill a bottom of the rotation spot coupled with one of the lefties (Hall/Gasser/Ashby) as sort of a piggy back role to give hitters dramatically different looks between the 1st and 2nd time through the order.

I'm quite alright with Adames being shopped a bit right now, because I'd rather get some sort of prospect package in return for him now than risk him repeating his 2023 season and be left stuck with not even offering him a QO next offseason for fear he'd take it. I also think if a trade does happen that sends Adames out of Milwaukee, the Brewers would turn around and sign a veteran starter, DH, and/or 3B to bolster their roster at other positions.

It wouldn't surprise me to see him wind up in Dallas if McCarthy goes down in flames next season - it seems like that'd be oil and water with how much Jerry Jones meddles, but the two of them have a longstanding relationship - with the hard decisions and contract extensions + Dak's huge 2024 contract on the books, next season is the wrong time to bring a new coach into that spot.

The irony also expands with the fact that had Bauer been able to pitch the entire 2021 season in LA, Burnes probably doesn't have a Cy Young in his trophy case at all. Bauer won it in 2020 with that short COVID season as a Red and his numbers in 2021 were right there again.

What the Brewers appear to be getting ready to do in 2024 (i.e., turning over a bunch of rotation spots to prospects/young starters) is pretty much the exact same thing they did in 2019 when Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta first saw a bunch of starts together in the rotation after their 2018 playoff run with a makeshift rotation. at least that was the plan, until injury (Peralta) and performance (Burnes) had two of them out of that rotation In 2019 before it every really got rolling, Burnes was probably the worst starter in baseball and actually wound up back in AAA before being bumped back up in the pen during the wildcard push late in the season. Freddy had shoulder issues by late April that season and came back largely in a bullpen role when he did get healthier, and he really pitched pretty poorly that year. And last season's Brewer starting rotation was far from the strength of the roster - it was the bullpen, then the defense, then starting pitching and hitting was the weakest link for most of the year. This offseason, the bullpen has either stayed the same or got even better/deeper, two key starters moved on due to injury (Woody) or trade/contract (Burnes). Lauer was a complete nonfactor and Woodruff missed a ton of the 2023 season - people look at the names on the 40 man compared to what they had headed into last season and assume their rotation will be worse, without realizing two of the key starters in 2023 didn't provide enough innings or positive production to even factor into the overall success of a team that won its division easily. I'm not singling you or anyone in particular out, but to me it seems like some posters upset about the return for Burnes still act like he's coming off his his 2021 season (no doubt top 5 starter in the game), and not his last two seasons (#20-30 starter in the game range). 1 year of performance for a guy that will win a Cy Young award for you is worth more than what the Brewers got from the Orioles via trade, however 1 year for a guy who "might" be a Cy Young contender for you if he pitches better than he has the past couple seasons is much more in line for what the Brewers got in terms of prospect/mlb ready player with upside/draft capital. And even if some people disagree with that assessment, what they got is alot more than a package for Burnes at the deadline this year would've netted. The debate IMO may be if the current Brewers' roster with Burnes was good enough to roll the dice on getting more value overall for the franchise by a "run it back" rotation approach headlined by Burnes and Peralta, and trying to win a WS with him and then getting nothing in return but a QO pick in the 2025 draft, or if trading him this offseason was the right move and giving the organization flexibility to backfill his roster spot with cheaper young talent knowing there will be bumps in the road with the rotation that need to be navigated to get that part of the roster in better shape longterm.

His acquisition that season was also widely panned by brewer fans

The Cubs? no - the Reds? Probably....but its still about 2 months from opening day and I'd wager that rosters on paper now will look different then for teams, perhaps most notably in Milwaukee. On top of that, young talent is very difficult to predict how it impacts wins and losses, and the Brewers are loaded with that right now. At this exact moment I still fail to see the Cubs actually being better now than they were last season, btw. They are paying their manager alot more, so they have that going for them I guess.

2022 was Ortiz's 2nd full minor league season, which also happened to be when the Orioles were just crawling out from their Astros-esque prospect hoarding doldrums and started having to call guys up to the majors because they were out of room stockpiling talent down on the farm while their MLB team was losing 100+ games a season. And I'd wager the Orioles' decision to trade Ortiz is 1% based on what their opinion of what he could be as an everyday MLB shortstop/middle infielder offensively, and 99% to do with realizing Ortiz is totally blocked at that position by two other players who project to be better than him, and basically all other MLB shortstops. To your other post - I'm not saying Covid caused prospects to regress in development, but I do think it caused them delays in being MLB-ready products and leads to difficulty projecting what their prime production seasons will look like. You're right, HOF-caliber talent starts playing baseball at the major league level younger than 25....it's also untradeable for a veteran pitcher with 1 year left of team control before reaching free agency, no matter how great the pitcher was 3 years ago when he won a Cy Young while only having to take the ball every 6th day due to a deep rotation and bullpen.

Worth noting both guys are already 25. True prospects that will have an impact at the MLB level tend to get to MLB a bit sooner. You mean like Woodruff, who was 25 when he rolled into being a bullpen option down the stretch in 2018 and in the playoffs (btw, Hall was in that exact same role on last fall's Oriole playoff roster)? And if I'm not mistaken, Hall still has 6 more years of team control tied to him before becoming a free agent, regardless of his current age. I don't think age has nearly as much to do with concerns over a pitcher drafted out of high school who missed a full season of development in the minors due to COVID, plus had his 2021 season cut short due to elbow concerns. Those two years would've been years #3 and 4 in the minors, which are typically the seasons where talented high school arms ramp up their workloads over 100 IP+. For reference, Justin Steele never went over 100 IP in any of his 7! miLB seasons before finally being a regular in the Cubs' rotation in 2022 as a 26 yr old. Hall was a 1st round pick in 2017 with a 100-mph arm and plus secondary offerings, but likely is several years behind what a typical pitching prospect would have in terms of development, and those missed years don't mean his stuff has the potential to be any less dominant at the MLB level. Had Covid and Hall's 2021 arm injury not occurred when they did in his minor league development, Hall would've been up for good in Baltimore as a 22 or 23 yr old. As for Ortiz being 25 - he was drafted as a 20 yr old out of college in 2019, missed all of his age 21 season due to Covid, then went through high A/AA levels at 22, AA/AAA levels at 23, and then spent most of his age 24 season at AAA before getting sporadic playing time across 15 games early in the season primarily because Mateo was nursing an injury and Henderson wasn't yet taking the lions' share of starts at SS. All this while playing in an Orioles system that had a can't-miss superstar both ahead of Ortiz (Henderson) and behind him (Holiday). In general, the absent Covid year for minor leaguers plugged into MLB systems a season or two before 2020 really should reset people's opinions of prospect ages and how much more room they'd have to develop once they do reach the major leagues.

No - because since it was the Orioles who traded for 1 season of Burnes, the Brewers should have gotten two of Holiday/Mayo/Henderson + the draft pick....even though any 1 of those guys would be a massive overpay from Baltimore's perspective.

Now that Ortiz is in the mix after the Burnes trade, if there's a market for trading Adames I wonder if he's next to go and then the Brewers could turn around and pay for a quality righthanded DH - JD Martinez or Soler are still looking for work. I thin Montgomery is going to sign for longer than what the Brewers would be comfortable with - although it is approaching spring training pretty quickly. From a pitching standpoint - finding a solid veteran starter to add to the middle of the rotation for 1-2 seasons, or have a contract structures with some sort of opt out in that timeframe.

Agreed....getting feet wet in the major leagues is no sample to make grand projections. Hall pitched in two playoff games against the Rangers and looked pretty damn electric last October, too.

Down the stretch, quite possibly...and getting their next wave of young arm talent mlb exposure from the pen - just like woodruff, burnes, and Peralta. I like the idea of somehow adding one more vet starter to this roster via free agency for early season rotation depth and then just letting the kids play.

At the moment, no, but I don't think the Brewers are done. If they do nothing else, this trade does make them better next season and beyond.

Ortiz is simply a victim of his best position being SS with a MLB ceiling of being an above average player there, and he was still hopelessly blocked and about to be leapfrogged by more talented players in a system that is insanely loaded at that position. To me it's vaguely comparable to the Brewers trading for Adames when it was apparent Wander Franco was arriving there - only Ortiz was already blocked by Henderson at the MLB level. Hall, to me, is the centerpiece of the return simply due to his arm talent - but that's not knocking Ortiz. Add in the 34th pick in this season's draft and I think it's a pretty solid return for Burnes, actually.

I have a hard time bashing this trade when the arm the Brewers get in return is as electric as Hall's - his floor is a dynamic reliever capable of going multiple innings, and he's got a much better pitch arsenal than Hader so Hall will get an opportunity to be a starter in the major leagues.

So at this snapshot in time, it feels like the Brewers are markedly upgraded offensively than they were at the start of last season, but significantly diminished in the starting pitching department without Burnes or Woodruff in their rotation. I might be reading the tea leaves wrong, but it feels like there's going to be something else significant coming for the Brewers. With how this offseason has slogged along across most of MLB, there are plenty of other potential starters to either add in free agency that would help this staff, or via trade (sudden surplus of young OFs and Adames/young IFs) - The AL Central is an interesting spot to start looking for a young impact starter with similar or even 1 extra year of control to replace Burnes with, in particular (Cease, Bieber).