Fear The Chorizo

I think the interesting aspect of this year's Spring Training for MLB is the fact there are still a good # of free agents that haven't signed anywhere - and my assumption is most MLB organizations have their 40 man rosters full and are already dealing with a glut of minor league camp invites. So, any noteable FA signing will need to have a corresponding trade or DFA just to get that guy into the mix. We may actually be seeing this unfold with the Brewers and the apparent delay in finalizing the Sanchez contract. There are also a bunch of guys still looking for camp invites/minor league deals because of it, too. This is part of the reason why I think MLB should implement a rule to suspend major league free agency at the end of January each season (also, I think they should push the start of that free agency period to December 1 and not instantly after the World Series ends), and any FAs who haven't signed a contract would need to wait until the start of the regular season to do so. There's no good reason prominent major league free agents should be spending 3+ months unsigned and have that process leak into Spring Training.

Maybe both Contreras and Quero are about to be traded to make way for the future Brewer backstop...

I actually think Frelick would be the young OFer I'd prefer the Brewers trade before any of the other guys, and this would be the offseason to do so if looking to maximize return. Frelick is a good defensive OFer, but not as good as Mitchell, Wiemer, and Chourio - and putting Frelick in a corner OF position makes him an offensive liability due to limited power. He's more polished right now than Mitchell or Wiemer, but those guys have higher ceilings. IMO, Frelick is good enough to be an everyday outfielder and a good everyday center fielder - I'd be just fine if the Brewers held onto him longterm, but I think if the Brewers do opt to trade from a position of surplus depth either to improve their MLB team elsewhere or add younger prospects to free up 40 man roster space I'd rather see Frelick be the odd man out than Mitchell or Wiemer at this point in their careers, especially with Chourio likely being given every opportunity to be this team's center fielder for the next 8+ years.

Time to start speculating what the Brewers need to pony up in terms of prospect capital to trade for Burnes at the deadline for a two month stretch run rental after the Orioles are stuck in a "step back" sort of season in that division.

Phil Bickford sucks, actually

Absolutely none of this is any different than what I posted earlier, and doesn't take away from the fact the Brewers have been too focused on run prevention at the expense of scoring. Of the 20-25 batted balls that either result in outs or hits per game, I'd guess the average number of chances a left fielder gets a game is 3, and tough chances where a great defensive player creates an out vs giving up a hit is about 0.4 a game. I'm just fine with a mediocre corner OF that can hit like a corner OF in left plus a good DH in the lineup most days instead of a great defensive left fielder who can't hit playing their while that mediocre LF makes $25m a season to DH and the lineup is worse. I'm hopeful all our young OFs prove to be plus assets offensively, too. But just because the Brewers have a bunch of them doesn't mean they should play them all everyday before they prove they are good mlb offensive players.

When is enough enough for this stalemate with Boras clients that has progressively dragged the mlb offseason into spring training the past few seasons? I'd like to see the mlb free agency period end or at least pause before the regular season starts by end of January. If you don't sign a contract by then, you're free to do so after opening day at what will most likely be a reduced 1st year of the deal, particularly for a starter who wont be game ready for a month - but enough already. These players aren't being blackballed from signing contracts, their asking prices are just not realistic for the caliber player they've proven to be. At some point they have to wake up and sign what's being offered.

Depends if at least 1 of those 3 young OFers aren't hitting worth a lick, then id want Yelich in left. The game has gotten to the point where roughly 40 percent of outs in a game are Ks, so I'd much rather have an OF that may have one avg to below avg defender in it costing the team a fraction of a run every week but who helps create multiple runs offensively in that same time than an OF full of gold gloves but 1-2 players hitting like a 1980s utility IF. Defense and run prevention is important, but i think recent Brewer teams have leaned way too far into that side of the roster at the expense of scoring runs. For a team whose longterm weakness is offense, there should be tons of ABs for a separate DH that isnt their starting LF or starting catcher. I'd prefer Yelich, with a history of back issues, gets actual days off instead of being a quasi DH because the rest of the team can't hit and then see him wear down in september again. Same goes for a catcher, no matter how young Contreras might be.

So is it better to pay Hoskins 2yrs, $34M up to 3 yrs, $48M (or 1yr about $16M with the opt out) to play subpar defense at 1B on the heels of missing a full season due to knee surgery? Hoskins' 2022 season was worse statistically than Soler's 2023 - what if Hoskins has a bad 2024 season, meaning the Brewers will absolutely be on the hook for at least that full $34M dollars over two seasons with a decent likelihood of $48M over 3? My point on the 2022 Braves' roster and why they made no effort to resign Soler at that time is that they already had Ozuna signed to be their bat-first RH hitter with pop that was destined to be a primary DH for 3 more seasons - there was no point to signing Soler to that same role for 2022 and beyond. Soler was traded for at the 2021 deadline to fill that role after Ozuna broke bones in his hand to miss a bunch of the 1st half and then was put on leave due to domestic violence issues. Ozuna's contract signed 3 years ago, Hoskins' contract including the optout, I'm certain JD Matrinez's next contract, etc. are in the mid to upper teens of millions of dollars for bat-only RH hitters with thump - Soler making a tick less than that AAV over 3 seasons for ages 32-34 just isn't the catastrophic risk people are making it out to be just because he isn't a gold glove caliber defender. It's the going rate in free agency for a guy to give you 30+ HR a season no matter what the rest of his metrics look like.

Pretty sure getting Acuna back healthy for 2022, Ozuna still on their books at $16M as their primary DH/backup corner OF, trading for Olson and promptly extending him, and also figuring out how to incorporate their own young OF talent between Ozuna, Acuna, and Rosario already in the mix all had alot more to do with not keeping Soler around than that contract amount. That was the same offseason they let Freddie Freeman walk, too.

I believe of the 5 remaining top 25 MLB free agents heading into this offseason that haven't yet signed a contract, all 5 are Boras clients.

Honestly I'm happy Andrews is with a different organization altogether regardless of the return, so there wasn't the risk of him latching onto a minor league deal with Nashville and then finding his way back up to get shelled in Milwaukee in June. The fact they got anyone with more upside than AAAA fodder they don't have to put on the 40 man in order to retain them in return is kind of surprising.

Soler.is.a.primary.DH.at.this.stage.in.his.career....I don't care about his defensive runs saved stats no matter when they were from. Two of those years he wasn't the primary DH and also spent a significant amount of time on the IL. I'd also wager the Braves thought Soler's time in Atlanta in 2021 was pretty darn valuable when he OPS'd close to 0.900 for them. Soler's injury history is definitely a concern, but getting him out of the outfield most of the time and just putting a bat in his hands, like what the Marlins did with Soler last season, absolutely makes him worth 3 years and $42M at ages ~32-34.

I think metrics in determining overall player value for DHs aren't worth very much - particularly when part of the argument against Soler being a valuable hitter for the next 3 seasons as a DH continues to lean on defensive metrics from earlier in his career that discount the offensive production he provided while playing a butcher in left or right field. To me, a primary DH's value is better measured by traditional counting stats as an offensive player in the middle of a lineup - once it gets more nuanced beyond OPS I stop paying attention. Sanchez's career OPS is 780, while Soler's is 797. Comparable, but Soler is a better hitter despite being pretty inconsistent due primarily to injury history in recent years. Also, Sanchez hasn't had a season that significantly outperformed his career average OPS since 2019. Soler OPS'd 0.853 last season.

There was a noticeable dip in viewership, and the NFL skirted the issue by changing their policy to not require people who didn't want to stand for the anthem to be on the field during it. Revenues were still increasing due to tv contracts, but the nfl got a ton of pressure from networks and corporate advertisers to put a stop to the visibility of it because viewership did decline, particularly on a per capita basis. Had the NFL not changed course after a bunch of scmucks changed the channel, the current avalanch of tv $ wouldn't be nearly as lucrative. I hate comparing anything nfl to mlb in terms of tv revenue - just two completely different season models.

There was a noticeable dip in viewership, and the NFL skirted the issue by changing their policy to not require people who didn't want to stand for the anthem to be on the field during it. Revenues were still increasing due to tv contracts, but the nfl got a ton of pressure from networks and corporate advertisers to put a stop to the visibility of it because viewership did decline, particularly on a per capita basis. Had the NFL not changed course after a bunch of scmucks changed the channel, the current avalanch of tv $ wouldn't be nearly as lucrative. I hate comparing anything nfl to mlb in terms of tv revenue - just two completely different season models.

Soler is a better hitter with more power than Garcia, and he is a DH. Not a comparable player just because Soler played OF when he was younger. Again, if the Giants play Soler consistently in the OF, this contract is a mistake because his lack of defensive ability and propensity to get injured out there will negate his bat. If they take away his glove and tell him to just worry about hitting 0.250 with 35+ HR and an OPS over 0.800 the next 3 seasons from the 5 or 6 spot in their order, this contract is a steal.

I think the Dodgers already have like 17 injured veteran starters on their payroll...they might have lost track and just assumed they did sign Woody already.

Soler is NOT an OF in my book, so the fact the Brewers have a trio of prearbitration OFs + Chourio who all play quality defense but haven't proven to be above average hitters for their positions doesn't really change my mind on what a hitter like Soler would have been to this roster the next 3 seasons. He'd have been this roster's primary DH, Hoskins is the roster's primary 1B for 2024 - then the team doesn't have to get cute overplaying Yelich/Contreras at DH when they should be getting actual days off during the season. And Yelich will not become a primary DH for this roster making $25+M a season, even if the Brewers have a bunch of good and young defensive OFs....at least until more than one of them (Chourio, Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer) prove to be plus offensively for the OF positions they play. This is all besides the point with Soler now a Giant....although I'd have a similar take on JD Martinez for a 1-2 year deal as well.

True, but I also don't see a 3 yr contract for an established free agent DH in his early 30s to be a huge risk, and I think dramatically upgrading their weakest offensive position from last season is more valuable than what amounts to marginal upgrades/status quo at two roster spots with basically the same financial cost. Particularly when the Brewers are already flush with catchers even without Sanchez.

If he is their DH, absolutely no reason to be worried about years 2 and 3 of this contract. Soler is 31, not 38. If the Giants plan to play him alot in the field, then yes this is a bad contract. But I would have loved the Brewers to sign this guy to be their DH the next 3 seasons at that cost.

I don't know why you'd be surprised given the fact the Kelces have been everywhere the past few years, and that is Jason's personality - not going to bash someone for being themselves instead of just being a polite clichet robot. Sticking a microphone in front of people right after winning a title to capture the raw emotion of it, oftentimes without a tape delay or filter, is going to lead to this. He's not a politician, he's a football player. I do agree with you on the incident with Reid on the sideline - that's unacceptable behavior no matter what the moment/level of emotion. People never want the Chiefs to win anymore because of their success, but I am surprised they aren't getting hate for the way they act. That being said, I hope Jordan Love turns into an insufferable personality. It seems like a requirement to be the best QB in the league. It's more to do with the fact they keep winning and are in the spotlight all the time because of it - this sort of stuff happens on sidelines and in locker rooms across the rest of the league, too. There just isn't 5,000 cameras looking for every little thing on every other team's sideline when it's not the Super Bowl and it's not the Chiefs - who have the best player in the league, probably the best coach in the league, a star TE who's dating TSwift and drawing all sorts of non-football fan interest, and carrying a pretty young and inexperienced roster around all of this while playing a ton of postseason/high pressure games.

Would tend to agree, but if I'm the Brewers I can't trade Mis right now either because the upside is just too amazing to give up with that arm and his stuff...even if it's a coinflip chance at best he stays healthy and improves his command enough to be a Frontline starter.

Yeah, if that's the case the White Sox must be fine with rolling the dice on Cease being healthy to start this season and shopping him at the deadline...or they think they have a shot at competing in the AL Central.

I was confused at the end of the OT with the running clock, assuming if the Chiefs didn't score before the clock read zeroes that the game would've been over - not realizing it would've just cycled into a new quarter until Romo explained that as the Chiefs were scoring the TD. The way that last play unfolded it almost seemed like the 49ers didn't know the situation either, and didn't have a good defensive call in assuming the Chiefs were going to need to take a TO. To Reid and the Chiefs' credit, if there was confusion on San Fran's end they took advantage of it and ran a really well-designed play with a reasonably early snap...they had to run a play before the quarter clock expired, but they did snap with 5+ seconds left on the play clock. In that particular situation, I was shocked the 49ers didn't call a TO to set up their defense. That being said, one change I would like to see this new playoff OT rules follow is to treat the end of a quarter like an end of a game situation, too - which would give a team that can execute a long drive to drain the clock and wind up with a FG another option for winning the game outright, or forcing the opponent on their 1st possession to have some urgency getting into scoring position while also knowing they'd have 4 downs on the whole drive to do so. That 15:00 OT period expired with just the two possessions. If at the end of the OT period, the game was still tied for whatever reason, then the next OT quarter would be sudden death that would start with another coin toss to prevent the team that had possession at the end of the 1st OT period from just sitting with the ball on the fringe of scoring range and then kicking a FG to start the sudden death OT period.