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Harold Hutchison

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Everything posted by Harold Hutchison

  1. Harold Hutchison
    AL East: Yankees AL Central: Indians AL West: Astros ALWC1: Red Sox ALWC2: Twins NL East: Nationals NL Central: Brewers NL West: Dodgers NLWC1: Rockies NLWC2: Cardinals ALWC: Red Sox beat Twins NLWC: Rockies beat Cardinals ALDS: Red Sox over Indians 3-2, Astros over Yankess 3-2 NLDS: Brewers over Rockies 3-1, Dodgers over Nationals 3-0 ALCS: Red Sox over Astros 4-2 NLCS: Brewers over Dodgers 4-3 World Series: Brewers over Red Sox 4-3 WS MVP: Yelich
  2. Harold Hutchison
    I've had a FitBit Blaze for about six weeks... it has worked out very well for me. Their calorie tracker is much better than Fooducate (not that Fooducate is bad - I have a monthly subscription to it, and it does good things, but when I'm having an Atkins bar, they try to push a vegan granola bar recipe on me) in some aspects.
  3. Harold Hutchison
    I agree. The anti-Cravy, IMO.
  4. Harold Hutchison
    Don't forget, there are prospects like Troy Stokes (he'll have us forgetting Harrison and Brinson in no time - I expect great things from him) as well.
  5. Harold Hutchison
    I thought I remember seeing that the Astros had tried Santana at 1B, and it ended up being an out-and-out disaster? Major and minor league stats show no first base playing time at all. Cain, Santana, Perez, and Yelich all have played CF. I'll option both Broxton and Phillips in a heartbeat. The key to that, IMO, is to be able to deal Aguilar. The Rays may be an option (they have a young LF/1B type in Joe McCarthy, a lefty with good OBP skills, some power, and minor-league options). The Mariners as well (I like James Pazos as a piece for the bullpen, kind of a lefty version of the Corey Knebel of 2016).
  6. Harold Hutchison
    One other option could be to work Santana at first as well. Go with Yelich-Cain-Braun in the outfield, Thames as a reserve. Or, option both Phillips and Broxton, and use Santana as the 4th outfielder. He's played mostly right, but the Crew did use him in center when he was acquired in 2015, and a little in 2016.
  7. Harold Hutchison
    Mariner's weren't duped. Lind gave them a so-so season, but they gave up little. Freddy Peralta is a probable relief ace with a MLB debut of around 2020. Missaki hasn't pitched since the 2015 season. Herrera is still at Low-A Wisconsin. If Herrera becomes a rotation piece for the Crew, it becomes a bad trade for the Mariners. But if Herrera doesn't make the majors, a reliever five years after the fact isn't a bad price for part of a platoon (the other half was Dae-ho Lee) that provided 34 homers and 107 RBI at first base for the Mariners in 2016.
  8. Harold Hutchison
    Suter/Wilkerson/Guerra combined are about 25% of what Odorizzi costs. That's a #5 and two filler arms. Gallardo pushes it to a bit over 50%, but if he emerges as a veteran middle/long relief option (or even a 7th/8th inning option), he's worth every penny.
  9. Harold Hutchison
    Darvish could be a pretty big upgrade on Arrieta, who had a bad year by his standards, and you understate how bad Lackey was IMO. Look at some of the guys who started multiple games for them. The rotation is much better. I think I explained why I think the lineup will be better. Look how many of them were 27 or under most of last year. Many of their regulars were 25 or under. There's a very good chance hardly any of them have had their best year yet. Even Rizzo and Heyward could still have some of their best years ahead of them. That's backed up by tons of data about when the average player peaks. They have to stay healthy, I'll give you that. The depth is bad. I think they will get a lot of innings out of their starters, and it's not hard to find bullpen depth at the trade deadline. I'm not deviating from the long-term vision at all just to respond to the Cubs, or the other elite teams in the NL for that matter. That's all I'm saying. Cain and Yelich were fine because they constitute good value IMO. Yelich was probably great value, actually. Cobb would have to get a Chatwood type deal for me to get excited about it. I'd rather just see what Woodruff has and wait for Jimmy. Or Burnes. Or Ortiz.
  10. Harold Hutchison
    Suppose the Crew makes the following moves? Sign Lucroy to a three year, $20 million deal ($6 million in 2018, $7 million in 2019 and 2020). Trade Thames and Nottingham to the Rays for minor league LF/1B Joe McCarthy and LHP Travis Ott. Trade Aguilar to Seattle for LHP James Pazos Trade Broxton and Bandy to Toronto for IF Cavan Biggio. Go with this 25-man roster: cf: Cain lf: Yelich rf: Santana 3b: Shaw 1b: Braun c: Lucroy 2b: Villar ss: Arcia Pitcher bench: Pina, Vogt, Sogard, Perez, Phillips rotation: Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff, Suter bullpen: Knebel, Pazos, Hader, Albers, Logan, Jeffress, Gallardo
  11. Harold Hutchison
    Where is Thames in this assessment? He and Aguilar are dealt - separate deals to try to land some prospects. The Rays will need a DH to be an upgrade/replacement for Duda. Imagine Thames going there for Joe McCarthy, a young LF/1B with good OBP skills and some power. Aguilar could go to Seattle - maybe for James Pazos, a lefty reliever who racks up a lot of Ks. Might be a good 8th inning option.
  12. Harold Hutchison
    At a 6-7-7 breakdown, why not?
  13. Harold Hutchison
    I figure Vogt gets 25 starts at 1B between Braun needing days off or DHing, he can also catch if you want to stack the lineup against a righty who has really bad splits. Figure he gets 30-35 starts all season. I'm thinking Braun can be a backup corner OF as well.
  14. Harold Hutchison
    It may not even be Vogt vs. Pina. Instead, imagine this: Sign Lucroy (three years, $20 million). Thames, Broxton, and Aguilar are dealt - maybe for lottery tickets, what have you. Lineup: cf: Cain lf: Yelich rf: Santana 3b: Shaw 1b: Braun c: Lucroy 2b: Villar ss: Arcia pitcher bench: Pina, Vogt, Perez, Sogard, Phillips rotation: Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff, Suter bullpen: Knebel, Hader, Jeffress, Logan, Albers, Barnes, Gallardo
  15. Harold Hutchison
    LOL, I would say the exact same thing for Davies. Clancy definitely has players that he likes, and those he doesn't like. I like Davies because he gets very good results and is cheap, but for the right price, I can see moving him, especially if the Crew can't sign him to an extension (I'd offer him seven years for $55 million, right now - $5 million per year for the first two years, $7.5 million a year for the next two, then $10 million per for the last three, and two team options for $15 million). Woodruff, I think has some real promise, but again, I'll move him for a TOR guy. I've explained my position on Arcia. I just have too many questions about his bat, and if I can leverage him and some of the depth elsewhere on the roster for improvements at positions of need, I'll do that, especially if I can get an Archer/Adames package from Tampa Bay. Adames, I think will give at least 50 more points of OPS than Arcia, if not more (he posted a .776 OPS at AAA Durham at age 21, compared to Arcia's .723 at AAA Colorado Springs at 21). If Arcia's bat can answer those questions positively, then I'll say he proved me wrong. I think Aguilar, Broxton, and even Thames are also options to include in a trade as well. Assuming a Santana/Aguilar/Arcia/Woodruff for Archer/Colome/Adames/McCarthy deal, I'm thinking a lineup of: 2b: Walker cf: Cain lf: Yelich 3b: Shaw rf: Braun 1b: Thames c: Lucroy ss: Adames Bench: Pina, Villar, Perez, Phillips, Vogt A rotation of Archer, Anderson, Davies, Chacin, and Suter A bullpen of Knebel, Hader, Colome, Logan, Albers, Jeffress, and Gallardo
  16. Harold Hutchison
    Of course Cobb is better than Suter or Wilkerson, but not on a 4 year deal at age 30. Garza's age 25-29 seasons: FIP (weighted): 3.90, K/9: 8.0, BB/9: 2.9, HR/9: 1.0; slightly, but not significantly, worse than Cobb's career so far. You also missed one critical factor with Cobb - he's only started more than 30 games in a season once, and that was back in 2012. Garza started at least 30 games in a season six times through age 29. Garza through age 29 looks a lot like Cobb through age 29, but was much more durable. At this point, unless I can get a TOR guy (and Darvish really was the only one - CURSE THE CUBS!), then I'll stay out of the free agent market except to re-sign Walker and add Lucroy, then try to work a deal to bring a TOR guy to Milwaukee, probably centered on a package consisting of one of Santana/Arcia and one of Davies/Woodruff, with Ortiz and Nottingham (or some other prospects along those lines).
  17. Harold Hutchison
    For Lucroy, I'd go two years, $15 million with a pair of team options at $10 million each. Pina... maybe he can be an asset. At worst, he's a decent #2 catcher, and some teams may see him as an upgrade over their #1. The team control would be good, too. Sign Luc, go with Vogt as the #2, deal Pina for a couple of lottery tickets...
  18. Harold Hutchison
    I'd give Lucroy a deal - and have him as the #1. He did seem to bounce back away from Texas, and prior to 2017 had been solid. Lucroy/Pina is a good 1-2, better than Pina/Vogt.
  19. Harold Hutchison
    If Braun to 1B is a mirage, where does he play? You don't acquire Yelich to play him out of position in RF, and while I suppose Braun could play in RF, he's not the ideal solution there, either. I agree that there are likely several personnel moves this team has left to make, because the makeup of the roster doesn't make a lot of sense. I would imagine Santana, Broxton and one of Thames/Aguiar are all on the trade block, which opens up 1B for Braun to be part of a platoon there, with the rest of Braun's starts coming in LF, giving Yelich breathers or kicking Yelich to CF to give Cain breathers. I still believe that Phillips will see most of the time in RF. I see the Crew moving Broxton and Aguilar for lottery tickets to keep the farm system going. Yelich, Cain, and Santana end up in the OF with about 125-130 starts each. Phillips gets about 40 starts, most in center to rest Cain. Braun gets 60 starts in the outfield between LF and RF, 60 at 1B, and 5 at DH. Maybe work him in at second or third base and get another 15-20 starts there so folks get a day off (or if Villar slumps). Lots can happen.
  20. Harold Hutchison
    Additional money and key prospects. A trade for a TOR starter at any point is either a lock or at least sets off the final series of events to lock in the fact that we've decided that our window is 2018-2021. I have a hard time seeing the Brewers do anything serious 3-4 years from now if we've depleted our upper-tier of prospects and most of our currently controlled players are going to be getting older or leaving in 2021. Signing Cobb allows us to keep Burnes, Peralta, etc. for a potential future trade if we so choose or also as a backup option to either use in the next window of contention or as a wild card that maybe one of those guys develops into a stud. We can all celebrate that Chris Archer is only getting paid $7.5 million the next few years when we likely are close to capped out anyways and have no future after the Archer years. There's more than just "X player is getting paid Y amount" in analysis. I agree. I don't want to rebuild after 2021. I want to have the next wave of prospects hit and continue the dominance from 2018-2021 forward. I want to find a Corbin Burnes or Troy Stokes every year. I'd love to pick up a six-year guy like Angel Ventura, who could be an excellent long-relief/back-end of the rotation guy. Let's find another Brent Suter or someone like him in the 31st round.
  21. Harold Hutchison
    I took a look at Estrada's splits - and his career totals as a starter were 943.1 IP in 161 starts. That's an average of just under six innings, with a career ERA of 4.05. I think Suter's capable of stretching out to six or seven innings a start, especially if the Brewers avoid the AAA/MLB and bullpen/rotation shuffling. In terms of ERA, I think Suter will be better, mostly because I see his BB9 being a bit lower (2.4 to Estrada's 2.8). I think he's also better at avoiding the gopher ball (1.0 to Estrada's 1.4) over his career. The latter is actually almost a third lower than Estrada's. His H9 and K9 are not as good as Estrada's, but the BB/K ratio is slightly better (2.93 to 2.91). All in all, if Suter in 2018 takes a step forward, it may be time to see about giving him an extension, say, five years, $30 million?
  22. Harold Hutchison
    Interesting work indeed, MrAllen. Here are some actual WHIP, H9, BB9, and K9 numbers from 2017. Pitcher A: 1.354 WHIP, 9.6 H9, 2.5 BB9, 5.8 K9 - Considered a dark horse Cy Young candidate by MLB.com, had a breakout year in 2017 Pitcher B: 1.286 WHIP, 9.1 H9, 2.4 BB9, 7.1 K9 Pitcher C: 1.326 WHIP, 9.0 H9, 2.9 BB9, 6.7 K9 All of these seen to fit in the 2-3 slots via peripherals. Maybe a little better...
  23. Harold Hutchison
    I think if you have an excellent bullpen, you can cover for not having an ace. I feel that the real value of Woodruff/Suter-type pitchers is that if you can produce 3-4-5 starters in your system at a constant rate, it does two things: 1. You're not giving a Matt Garza/Jeff Suppan/Kyle Lohse/Randy Wolf $10-15 million a year to fill that spot, you're filling it at $600K. The Cubs gave Darvish the extra year because the Crew had the cash to spare thanks to Woodruff and Suter (and a ready supply of younger rotation arms in Ventura/Derby/Ortiz/Burnes). 2. Some of these folks become assets and allow you to fill holes elsewhere via trade or a shift to the pen. If the Crew can't extend Davies and/or after 2018, then deal him/them for a host of prospects and put the next in line up. Adding Woodruff to Santana creates a very good package for a true ace OR a host of prospects at the AA/A+/A levels.
  24. Harold Hutchison
    Really, you're that sure about a 28-year old who has ~100 innings above AA? Should be Woodruff as I just copied from the previous post. Yes I do. Woodruff is 25. He has the stuff, he performed over that level last year if you scale his innings to ~160 even when he had a bad end of the year (likely tired due to his longest season). I am not against signing Cobb, I have advocated signing him in multiple posts as long as we don't overpay for the production he brings. I think he is excellent insurance against delayed Nelson recovery/performance and to keep us close going into the trade deadline where I hope we add that TOR starter through a trade. But at some point in the near future we will have younger alternatives that could out-produce him at a fraction of the cost. I concur. Despite the Yelich trade, the Crew still has Woodruff and Suter, both of whose peripherals (WHIP, H9, BB9, K9) look very encouraging when compared to Davies's on the major league roster. In AA/AAA, the Crew has Wilkerson, Luis Ortiz, Corbin Burnes, Angel Ventura, and Bubba Derby. Down a little further in AA/A+/A are Jon Perrin, Josh Pennington, Freddy Peralta, Cameron Roegner, Cody Ponce, Trey Supak, Freisis Adames, and Drake Owenby. Signing Cobb could open some interesting possibilities. I could see the Brewers wanting to get some big help at 2B and C. Santana+Woodruff for Mejia-plus from Cleveland? Or maybe Davies headlines a package? Maybe go back to the Marlins well, and see what it would take to get Starlin Castro (who wants out)? That could be cheap. There are options...
  25. Harold Hutchison
    You are trying to tell me that a 23-year-old SS can't improve with the bat. And I'm missing the point? Plus Arcia's defense is lightyears ahead of anything Adames is going to provide. I'm not saying that improvement isn't possible. I just see the red flag of Arcia's Colorado Springs numbers, the fact that his slightly above average 2017 OPS of .731 was mostly because he posted an OPS of .848 for June (no other month in his career has been over .759), and while I a, hoping for improvement, I don't know how much it will be, or if it will happen. Adames offers a higher floor offensively, and superior OBP skills plus more pop. Maybe not as good on defense, but I think the offense makes up for it. He had an OPS of .776 at Durham, a much less hitter-friendly park than Colorado Springs.
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