Harold Hutchison

Option 2 seems to be the best one, IMO.

Some more double-checking via Baseball-Reference: Suter's highest K/9 in professional baseball was 9.3 over 10 games (8 starts) with Colorado Springs in 2017.

I think that they are a team whose rebuild ended up a lot further ahead of schedule than they thought it would be. My big worry was that they would ditch their plan, and instead try to force a window. Yelich and Cain were good pick-ups, but a part of me wonders if they did force the window, That said, what is happening is really what I was hoping for on the rotation front. You have Suter, Woodruff, Derby, Ventura, Wilkerson, even Guerra to give extended auditions to. Suter and Woodruff have shown flashes that they could be decent 4/5 guys at worst, but they could be solid #3s. Suter's peripherals (K/9, BB/9, and WHIP) were better than Davies. Suter's been doing the AAA/MLB and bullpen/rotation shuffles, so I'm not super worried that he gets knocked around a time or two as he is likely in his first full season as a starting pitcher since 2014. I expect growing pains as he stretches out. Plus, Seattle's got a good team. If the rotation's not in the future, I think he'll be a left-handed Doug Jones. Either way, I see a very valuable asset. Whoever convinced Doug Melvin to take a flyer on him in the 31st round of the 2012 draft deserves a promotion and/or a huge bonus. Because finding folks like this is a difference-maker for a small-market club like the Crew. EDIT: I did notice he was racking up a lot of Ks, ended up with 7 over just under 5. Over Spring Training, he has a 9.71 K/9 ratio, and a 2.7 BB/9 ratio. WHIP's at a 1.27. But the K/BB is now 3.6, much higher than MLB career totals have been. I wonder if he isn't working on some stuff.

Suter 6Ks in 3 IP, had he not hit that one guy with a pitch, he'd be doing very well. I feel good about him in the rotation... when did he become this K machine??

Ortega is a prospect I liked a lot prior to the injury. Hope he bounces back...

Maybe it is because I was at the game where the River Bandits took all of their frustrations over being made to look absolutely foolish by Adrian Houser out on Owenby, but I'm not sure what to make of his 2017. He undoubtedly proved two things: 1. the injury was no longer an issue and 2. his 2016 wasn't a fluke. But the problem is, he shouldn't have been in Wisconsin, and if it weren't for the injury, he wouldn't have been. And there's the thing, if you had put Owenby's stat line in his first full season up and asked how that pitcher would do in a second go-around in the Midwest League, you probably would have gotten guesses of a slightly lower ERA and slightly lower strikeout rate (maybe 10.0), but otherwise the same. And it's not like we haven't recently seen guys put up some absurd numbers the second time around in Wisconsin: Jon Perrin had a 47:1 strikeout to walk ratio (still one of my favorite minor league stat lines) and Trey Supak posted even better stats than Owenby across the board (including a .76 WHIP) before seeing his K/9 rate slashed from 11.6 to 7.1 after getting promoted to Carolina. That being said, he also probably didn't get the recognition he deserved for his solid first go-around. I think his route might be the bullpen though, and it wouldn't shock me, depending on if any relievers get held back in Biloxi to avoid CS, if he skips Carolina and battles QTC, Kuntz and possibly Ramirez if the spring lineups are any indication for the title of best lefty in the AA bullpen, where he'd probably be ticketed for anyway if he hadn't gotten hurt. I think that Owenby's floor is as a 7th/8th/9th inning reliever - kind of a Thornburg/Knebel/Jeffress type who is left-handed, something very valuable. The big question is whether he can emerge to be a contributor in the rotation. Owenby's K/9 numbers and WHIP point to someone who could be a left-handed Nelson. That's a lot more valuable than a bullpen arm. The fact that he's a 15th-round pick is another bonus, too. It's the kind of steal the Crew needs at least once or twice a draft.

I'm hoping for Erys Bautista, Villalobos, and Jaraba.

The chance of getting him through waivers would seem to be better a week into the regular season as opposed to at the end of spring training. Would you consider jumbling up your 25-man roster a week into the season?

I think of it a little differently: We get a year, at least, to let Phillips up his game, let Broxton get ABs to maybe develop better OBP skills, and to see if Stokes can take another step forward, with Wren as the 4th OF in Colorado Springs. Braun/Santana/Yelich/Cain/Thames make for a good OF/1B rotation. I've run numbers before, but I think that with off days, minor dings and such, the roster is good. The worst case scenario is seeing Aguilar get claimed off waivers. That said, if they keep him for the first week, I think there is a very good chance the Crew could get him to Colorado Springs - and if a deal happens, they can make that magic work. If Broxton/Aguilar kill it in Colorado Springs, the Crew can pull off the same kinda deal they did with Cordell and get some help elsewhere if players falter. That said, if 2017 hadn't been a near-playoff run, would we be freaking out about getting a TOR guy, or one of the Darvish/Cobb/Lynn free agents, or hoping to acquire Archer? I think not. I think 2017 and 2018 were to be years to try and find out who could be contributors. The Brewers just found some real good ones, and there are some folks who in 2018 deserve a bit of longer look - like Suter and Woodruff in the rotation.

Owenby may be someone to try as a starter. He had very good K/9, WHIP, and ERA totals. I just gave him a big jump after an off-season of reflection.

Some poor defense in the 1st, and a leadoff HR in the 2nd, then settled in fine. I don't think it changes anything. He's in the rotation to start the year. He did the damage on D himself, too. Charged with a throwing error. Happens to every pitcher. Doesn't help that Hernan Perez is today's #3 hitter.

I figured I'd kick off a discussion thread on Top 25 ballots. Who do you think the biggest sleepers in the system are? Who's going to break out? Who's a bust, and who makes a comeback? In my mind, Drake Owenby could be a huge sleeper prospect. Drafted in the 15th round of the 2015 draft out of Tennessee, he's a college lefty, but he put up good numbers at Wisconsin the last two years. K numbers took a big uptick in 2017. Floor could be a late-inning bullpen arm, but I wonder if he's capable of being a TOR guy. Bubba Derby is also high on the list. I flash back to Brent Suter not being lit up like many pitchers are in Colorado Springs in 2015, and while I have Burnes (dominance), Woodruff (MLB-ready), Taylor Williams (MLB-ready late-inning arm), and Owenby (ceiling), Derby is worth a look as someone who could compete for a 2019 rotation spot out of nowhere. Ernesto Wilson Martinez is just hitting American minors after being in the DSL. This guy pulled 36 walks against 155 ABs. He also cranked out 14 extra base hits. Five years from now, I think he could be a contender to be the Crew's first baseman. As for breakouts, I think Owenby is my biggest bet for one. The numbers at Wisconsin look very good, and that 2017 strikeout rate is exciting. Busts? I have Kirby, Lara, and Meideiros high on the list - with Demi Orimoloye, Corey Ray, and Tyrone Taylor all in a make-or-break mode this year. Comeback players? I think Ronnie Gideon could re-emerge. He'd been a part-time player after the Brewers drafted him in 2016, and 2017 was his first full season of pro ball. If he's adjusted to that, I think he could rebound from a sub-par 2017. Taylor, while in a make-or-break year has a couple of big HRs to his credit in spring training. I could see the Crew selling high on him if he rebounds.

For reference, here was my post-season ballot: viewtopic.php?p=1066884#p1066884 Number in parenthesis was their position on that ballot 1. RHP Corbin Burnes (1) - Dominated in 2017. Breakthrough prospects and potential TOR guy. 2. OF Troy Stokes (2) - Will be at AAA in 2018, but no need to rush the young player. Could be a home-grown Yelich 3. RHP Brandon Woodruff (3) - His floor is Matt Garza 2016. Likely #5 starter to open the season. 4. OF Trent Grisham (Clark) (6) - Best OBP skills in the system with the losses of Diaz and Michael Reed 5. 3B Dallas Carroll (5) - Looks like a Jeff Cirillo clone. Like that professional hitter. 6. IF Keston Hiura (14) - Spring training has me intrigued. 7. RHP Taylor Williams (NR) - Could be right-handed version of Hader in pen. 8. LHP Drake Owenby (33) - Big jump, but I like his 1.062 WHIP, 11.63 K/9, and 3.32 ERA. 9. RHP Bubba Derby (12) - 3.55 ERA at Colorado Springs in 12 starts is Suter-esque sign of potential as a starter 10. C/IF Gabriel Garcia (8) - Bat is not a fluke, and versatile. Would like to see him behind the plate 11. OF Brett Phillips (5) - .799 OPS in limited action in Milwaukee, but now back in AAA 12. RHP Jon Perrin (10) - Rebounded near the end of the season to post solid numbers 13. SS/3B/1B Jake Gatewood (15) - Put it together, but where does he play? 14. 3B Lucas Erceg (16) - The power is there, but what else? 15. LHP Cody Beckman (34) - 11.39 K per 9IP, 3.38 ERA 16. 1B Ernesto Wilson Martinez (17) - 14 of 36 hits went for extra bases, but what had my attention was 36 BB in 155 ABs 17. OF Tristen Lutz (21) - Showed some big numbers at Arizona, but I've been burned before by Rookie League success 18. C Cooper Hummel (22) - He's got OBP skills, pop, and he's a swith-hitter, 19. C KJ Harrison (19) - Could be the best Brewers C since Lucroy 20. OF Jay Feliciano (18) - Looks like a raw power bat 21. RHP Cody Ponce (20) - Solid season, but others have more results or are closer. 22. RHP Freddy Peralta (23) - Not bad, but is he a starter or reliever? 23. RHP Luis Ortiz (24) - Could rise or fall based on graduations and his performance 24. RHP Angel Ventura (NR) - Another guy who posted solid numbers at Colorado Springs 25. LHP Nick Ramirez (25) - A left-handed toolshed. 26. IF Nate Orf (NR) - Versatile, good OBP skills. Bench asset 27. UT Weston Wilson (27) - Showed versatility and kept his bat decent despite shuffling between Appleton and Carolina 28. 1B Ronnie Gideon (28) - 2017 was first full season of pro ball, and he was part-time in college. 2018 could tell the tale 29. C Payton Henry (31) - Looks like a 3TO bat 30. C Josh Nottingham (32) - I don't dislike some of his numbers, but Garcia, KJ Harrison, Henry and Hummel look to be better catching prospects based on their offensive stats. 31. RHP Nate Griep (30) - Potential closer 32. OF Corey Ray (29) - Make or break year. 33. OF Tyrone Taylor (NR) - Couple of big spring training homers... but injury-riddled past has 2018 as make or break 34. OF Demi Orimoloye (35) - Also in make-or-break mode. 35. LHP Brad Kuntz (NR) - Future bullpen asset.

I think much of what happens in the 2018-2019 offseason depends on the way the Brewers pitchers perform in 2018. Scenario A (for Awful): Anderson regresses to his pre-2017 form, Nelson's a mess, Davies doesn't take a step up, Chacin stays Chacin, Suter and Woodruff don't take a step up. Ortiz and/or Burnes end up on the DL with Tommy John or something. The Brewers will need a wholesale revamp of the rotation, picking what they can salvage (or who will rebound) from who they need to deal or cut bait on. Scenario B (for Baseline): Davies, Suter, and Woodruff take steps up, Chacin is solid, Nelson takes more time to heal, Anderson regresses, while Burnes and Ortiz are on schedule for a 2019 debut. At that point, I can see them going into the FA market or going for a trade to get that last piece. Scenario C: Anderson proves 2017 isn't a fluke. Davies ends up being a not-so-dark horse candidate for Cy Young. Suter posts his 3.40-ish ERA and averages six innings a game. Woodruff posts an ERA in the 4.00 range. Chacin is solid. Nelson returns to form. Burnes and Ortiz dominate AAA. At this point, the Brewers may be dealing from a surplus in the 2018-19 offseason... as World Series champs.

Thames usually batted leadoff or second, IIRC. That reduces RBI chances, especially when Villar was slumping.

For me, the signing of Chacin was the illogical move. At AAA, the Crew had Jungmann, Derby, Ventura, Woodruff, and Wilkerson - with Burnes and Ortiz at AA - and Guerra as a AAAA option. With Nelson out, this was a chance to give some of them a shot - even if you got Yelich and Cain.

All true. And even if it's not, I'm not even saying that Santana is or will be better than Braun this year, or that Braun won't start in LF on opening day for posterity and possibly earn a little more playing time than Santana. I'm saying that the moves they made this off-season reveal that the front office is far more skeptical of Braun's value to the team moving forward than many fans here are. I think you have a great point here. I sort of view the Brewers acquiring Yelich similar to the Packers drafting Aaron Rodgers in 2005. Is Braun done? No. Can he still be an effective player for several seasons? I'd say there's a decent chance. But they had an opportunity to acquire a player who could effectively be a "Braun Part II"-type, and they acted on it. Players like Yelich just don't hit the market. He was there because the Marlins were dropping salary in a complete rebuild, and he wanted out. The Brewers saw an opportunity to acquire a difference-maker at a palatable price, and they jumped at it, even though they still had a very solid LF option. Just like the Packers still had a very solid QB option when they drafted Rodgers. I think the Brewers know that Braun still adds a lot of value to the lineup. But they also realize that he is 34 and has begun showing his age durability-wise. He's a guy that's great to have in the lineup, but can no longer be depended upon to show up every day. Yelich is their version of adding 2009 Braun to the lineup. It creates a logjam, but you find a way to make it work, because it improves the team now and in the future. In 2016, Santana missed a lot of time, and Braun posted a .903 OPS. You never can tell...

This. Remember, from 2015 to early 2017, Suter was doing a bullpen/rotation shuffle. In 2014, he averaged 5.44 innings an outing (28 games, 27 starts, 152.1 IP). In 2013, he averaged just under 5.8 (24 games, 23 starts, 139 IP). I think Suter can get you an average at least on par with Anderson/Chacin. But what is catching my eye is he is taking a lot fewer pitches. Was it really 25 pitches to get through four innings against the Rockies???

Not a fan of the 3 walks, especially when his biggest problem last year was command. Miley just has a NRI. If he loses the job, plug in Woodruff, Miley goes to Colorado Springs to be depth.

When you think about it - even if two get nicked up, the Crew isn't that bad off. Thames plays 1B and LF, and in a pinch plays RF. Braun is at 1B, LF, and has played RF Yelich plays LF and CF Santana and Cain play all three OF positions, as does Hernan Perez. Phillips and Broxton in AAA play all three OF positions. Stokes plays LF and CF.

But there are some durability issues, already. Thames had 123 starts in 2017 and seemed to wear down some. So I think the most we get from Thames is 122 starts at first. If you have 10 DH games, and 40 where Braun plays first, that leaves 112 games with three outfield starters each. Divvy that by the four, and you get 84 starts for each, so each starts 134 games. Braun: 10 DH, 40 1B, 84 LF Yelich: 78 LF, 56 CF Cain: 106 CF, 28 RF Santana: 134 RF Thames: 122 1B The other scenario is that Thames only starts 102 games at first (comparable to the 103 he had at that position in 2017 and subtracting his outfield and DH starts). That gives Braun 60 at first, 10 at DH, and 92 games with an "outfield rotation," meaning Braun, Cain, Yelich, and Santana each come out with 69 starts from that - and each of them gets 139 starts total. Braun: 10 DH, 60 1B, 69 LF Yelich: 93 LF, 46 CF Cain: 116 CF, 23 RF Santana: 139 RF Thames: 102 1B In any case, I am not upset with the present situation. The Crew has depth between those five and Perez. Players can be rested, if someone gets hurt, there is little offensive fall-off. Broxton and Phillips will be at AAA, ready for a call-up to replace an injured player.

You think that our current roster doesn't even put us in ballpark of contention? If Suter has really taken a step forward, and if Miley is fixed, and Nelson comes back at 100%... with Woodruff at AAA as the first call-up, yeah, I think this Crew is a contender. No Garza/Wily Peralta/Blazek starts.

Cain averaged 129 games a season over the last five years - his 155 in 2017 is a career high. The other four years saw no more than 140 games a season, two were 115 (2013) and 103 (2016). Yelich four full seasons have seen an average of 145 games, lowest was 129. Santana played 151 in 2017, but missed a lot of time in 2016 with injuries. Braun has averaged 115 games over the last five years, with significant time missed due to injury/suspension in 2013, and a lot of time missed in 2017. Each of these four gets 130 starts, plus appearances to pinch-hit/defensive replacement/double-switch as necessary. Plus, Thames only had 123 starts - counting 18 in the outfield - in 2017.

I think the Crew dodged a bullet.

Just in the outfield, with 162 games, and three OF positions, each of Braun-Santana-Yelich-Cain could get 121 starts in a "rotation system," with two games left over. Plus, there are games at AL Parks - 2 at KC, 3 at Minnesota, 2 at Cleveland, 3 at the White Sox. On those ten games, all four are in the lineup, no sweat. So, it's really 152 games, each with three outfielders. Which, if divided equally, means 114 starts in the OF, plus the 10 DH games that all four play - a total of 124 starts each. If Eric Thames can give the Crew 135 starts at first (he was in 138 games for the Crew), that leaves 27 non-DH games where Braun plays first (roughly one game a week), and all of Santana-Yelich-Cain play OF. So, we have 93 "rotation" starts for each, plus 10 DH games, plus 27 "Thames sits" games. That comes to 130 starts for each, plus three games left over. Think about it: Braun splits between LF (93), DH (10), and 1B (27), Yelich between CF (61) and LF (69), Cain between CF (101) and RF (32), and Santana in RF (130). This also gives each player about five games off a month if healthy. Of those four players, here's how the OF is covered: * Braun plays left field and right field * Yelich can cover left field and center field * Cain can play all three positions * Santana can play all three positions Hernan Perez has also played all three OF positions.