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Harold Hutchison

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Everything posted by Harold Hutchison

  1. Harold Hutchison
    I think we could see Corey Ray get some time in the mix. On the one hand, he does seem to be very good on defense, he's fast, and he's got some pop. But his walk rate is down and the strikeouts are still high. The stolen base totals are also down. He's a left-handed Keon Broxton. Not bad for a team like the 2015-2016 iteration of the Brewers, and valuable for the defense, pop, and speed. But the lower SB totals, the strikeouts, and the drop in the walk rate are red flags. Hindsight is 20/20, but perhaps after 2018, or even 2019, the Brewers should have dealt him, not Grisham.
  2. Harold Hutchison
    Sunitsch was looking to be on par with Ashby in some metrics - he had a lower BB/9 ratio than Ashby, and matched him in K/9. For 2020 and the pre-season 2021, I had him two slots lower than Ashby. Hope he pulls through and gets back on the mound soon.
  3. Harold Hutchison
    For 2022, a soft platoon of JBJ and Taylor makes sense (JBJ can also give LoCain time off in center). Figure Cain gets 130 starts in center, Taylor gets 100 in right, and JBJ gets 90 starts - 60 in right, 30 in center. Yelich gets 160 in left.
  4. Harold Hutchison
    Fry's played all over the diamond in his pro career - more at some positions than others. The bat's been there his whole career, though.
  5. Harold Hutchison
    This. Use the farm system to fill the holes around the core - to wit, Yelich, Woodruff, Burnes, Hader, Peralta, Adames, and Urias. There are LOTS of prospects who can fill the holes around them: Feliciano ©, Martinez (1B), Turang (SS/2B), Wilson (IF/OF), Fry (C/IF/OF), Howell (SS/2B/OF), Perez (OF), Mitchell (OF), Frelik (OF/UT)... not to mention pitchers.
  6. Harold Hutchison
    83
  7. Harold Hutchison
    I think I'd toss Weston Wilson into the mix as a dark horse. Yeah, he's older, but there's a case for him: Prior to his thoracic outlet surgery, he was leading Nashville in homers as part of his .902 OPS, played all over the diamond, and was a mainstay of the lineup. https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=642215
  8. Harold Hutchison
    Yeah, I really like Howell's speed/defense combo, but kind of think of him in more of the (hopefully super) utility category. Red flag for Korry is that 29.8% K rate, though his 10.9% BB rate & .202 ISO offer some encouragement. Obviously not one to one comparisons with everyone different ages with different sample sizes at different levels, but here's how the "Big Five OF" have fared in the same categories... Mitchell: 24.2 K% | 17.8 BB% | .163 ISO (256 PAs) Frelick: 12.2 K% | 11.2 BB% | .163 ISO (98 PAs) Hedbert: 25.8 K% | 6.1 BB% | .242 ISO (132 PAs) Gray Jr.: 27.6 K% | 11.4 BB% | .272 ISO (413 PAs) Wiemer: 21.8 K% | 13.1 BB% | .242 ISO (390 PAs) His adjustment to AA still looks okay in the small sample - he has 5 walks to 48 ABs, and the ISO is .146. Next year could tell the tale as to whether he's another Hernan Perez or if he is a poor man's Javier Baez. He's played SS, 2B, 3B, and all three OF positions, so if he can adjust and get the K rate down, he's a keeper. That said, the OF's future is looking very good. Corey Ray is a left-handed Keon Broxton. Mitchell reminds me of Lorenzo Cain, to be honest. Perez, Gray, and Wiemer all look good so far in the power department. That, of course, doesn't include players like Howell, Ernesto Martinez, and others who may be thought of as infielders, but who can also play one or more OF positions competently. The system's deep enough that the Crew could afford to give Adames a Yelich-type "face of the franchise" deal. Yeah, we have some SS/2B prospects... but Adames and Yelich could be the 3-4 hitters for the Crew for the rest of the decade.
  9. Harold Hutchison
    I may move him up if he keeps it up. It was probably about shaking off the rust.
  10. Harold Hutchison
    Kind of the same here. I thought it was a bad deal after 2020, but 2021 has lessened the imbalance, but overall, still a loss. Grisham would have obviated the need to sign JBJ and Garcia. So, in essence, replacing him ran to about $22 million in payroll this season. But Urias could hold down 3B acceptably for a while, and can also play SS/2B. Kind of a wash, if you will. The Crew kind of came off second-best in the Davies/Lauer deal, though. I think Davies is a better #5 than Brett Anderson, and when you add him to the rotation, it's a durable 1-5, especially with the Brewers defense - including Grisham.
  11. Harold Hutchison
    Thoracic outlet surgery... first Antoine Kelly, now Weston Wilson.
  12. Harold Hutchison
    I have been as big of a Brown fan as anyone, but if he didn’t go the last two years, I can’t see him being taken this year. Also, that is a bit of hyperbole on Martinez. I’m not even that bullish on him because of the swing and the strikeouts, but there is a better chance he goes #1 in the minor league phase than not get picked. I believe the last two guys the Brewers picked in the Rule 5 draft posted OPS’s in the .600 range the year before they were chosen. Unless someone like Barker asks to be exposed and the Brewers grant him it like I believe happened with a couple of guys (Halton and Gindl maybe) a number of years ago, the best prospect I could see them leaving available in the minor league phase is Jesus Lujano (position of organizational depth, one year left). Martinez has emerged as a potential player. I like the walks, I like the power, I like that he added stolen bases and the ability to play center to his repertoire this season. Worth protecting from the minor-league phase.
  13. Harold Hutchison
    It's never just about the physical gifts (speed, strength) or the talent. How hard someone is willing to work, to add the skills that make the most of the gifts and talent they have matters. How well they get along with their teammates matters.
  14. Harold Hutchison
    The most games the Brewers ever won in a season was 96, achieved in 2011 and 2018. They are 21 wins away from breaking that record. So, in honor of the 76th win, I figured why not start a thread similar to the magic number thread? In this case, I ask for some forbearance on the pic - given that the subject is one of those now praying that somehow, ALS is on the receiving end of a K once and for all. #TeamMongo
  15. Harold Hutchison
    I hope that's also a joke. He had some big time hits for us early in the year during rallies. He played some very good defense. Unfortunately he just didn't have enough hits. Good luck to Travis, but it's pretty laughable to think that any A-baller could even have done what he did. I agree. While stats give an overall picture, they don't give the whole picture. Shaw did bring a fair bit to the table. Maybe if he hadn't been injured, he might have pulled it together and get up to an average level offensively. We'll never know. But he'd be a decent option as a bench bat, having experience at 3B, 2B, 1B, and LF in the majors, and Miller Park/American Family Field is a place where left-handed power bats can thrive. For $1 million or so, he's not a bad bench option.
  16. Harold Hutchison
    I wonder if Nolan will show the courage that both Paolo Espino and Javy Guerra showed when facing Christian Yelich.
  17. Harold Hutchison
    Interesting... I had Castaneda at 14 and Cantrelle at 18 on my ballot.
  18. Harold Hutchison
    At which point, the Crew could very well have an option like Ernesto Martinez ready to step in.
  19. Harold Hutchison
    How do you tell if that player you drafted, whether with a top-10 pick or in the 31st round, is developing? Best way I can think of after several years of doing the top 25 ballots is to look at the stats and see how they've produced, and to look at the trends. To me, Ernesto Martinez and Korry Howell have shown breakthroughs this year - huge ones that I am projecting to very productive players - and I ranked them on my ballot accordingly. I also think that both Fry and Wilson have both produced consistently in terms of offense. They've also proven themselves to be versatile defensive players - across five or more positions (Wilson all four IF positions and the corner OF spots; Fry as a C/1B/2B/3B/LF/RF/CF). Hummel offered slightly less versatility (C/LF/RF/1B) but a bat that would have played well. The way I see it, the Crew, as a small-market team needs a regular flow of the bench guys, mid-rotation guys, and bullpen role players as well. As Cooper Hummel showed, their value may not be just on the Brewers 26-man roster, it could be a rental, or maybe we get those lottery tickets from another small-market club. The Yankees and Dodgers can afford to give out a nine-figure contract every year or so, as can the Red Sox, Padres, Angels, the Cubs, and White Sox. The Brewers can only do that once or (if they maximize their revenue) twice a decade. So, they need to develop a lot of their bench help, bullpen assets, etc. in-house whenever possible. That's why Fry and Wilson went 3-4 and Mitchell and Small were 5-6.
  20. Harold Hutchison
    You still have to get to the ninth with a lead. Hader's value in a given game evaporates if the one-run lead you want to save him for the ninth evaporates because Boxberger/Sanchez/etc. got lit up in the sixth trying to clean up a jam the starter got in. In that case, you put Hader in to get to the eighth, and you have conventional 8th/9th inning guys take those two.
  21. Harold Hutchison
    I'm a NO on Olson. Costs too much for too little control, both in terms of money and prospects. Now, Lou Trivino and Tony Kemp would be a nice package to get from them. Trivino could go 8th/9th with Devin Williams, moving Hader back to the multi-inning fireman role he filled so well, and Kemp provides a decent OBP and some versatility for the bench while batting left-handed.
  22. Harold Hutchison
    Now, it's 32...
  23. Harold Hutchison
    At this point wouldn't they rather NOT get him in game action, thus saving a minor league season before he needs to be protected? I thought the clock starts ticking once the contract is signed... Now, I think he'll move fast up the ladder, so it'll be a moot point, but the clock may already be ticking.
  24. Harold Hutchison
    If you think Fry & Wilson will only fill bench roles, why rank them higher than Mitchell & Small who you think will both be good? In the case of Fry, it's a very plus bat that plays well at catcher in addition to the other positions. I could see him forcing his way onto the 26-man at the start of 2022. Wilson has Hernan Perez's versatility with OBP skills and is a contender for the 2022 26-man roster, also at the start of the season. Mitchell, I think, has a 2023 ETA, and Small will probably come up mid-season 2022. They have higher ceilings than Fry and Wilson, but the latter two could contribute from the start of 2022. Honestly, I think Wilson would be a decent call up NOW. I've liked Fry and Wilson for a long time.
  25. Harold Hutchison
    I'll take a look at the full-season stats when it comes time for the post-season Top 25 voting. Martinez may drop due to injury, but like Howell, he added tools - in this case, he stole over 20 bases and he seems to be able to play a decent center field (and that could mean he also handles left field as well). It's a first-place vote I'll gladly stand by, especially if he shows the same stuff in Wisconsin. He always had the walk rate, and I figured power would develop. Howell was 1B to Martinez's 1A on my ballot, and I almost flipped them. For Howell, I'm flashing to Baez, and what he did for the Cubs in 2016-2018. During that time, Baez saw time at all four infield positions as well as left field and right field. In a sense, Howell is superior since he's also seeing time in center. I'll also stand by my high rankings of Fry and Weston Wilson, a pair of versatile bats who see action all over the field. I think they'll fill bench roles cheaper and better than the folks who've been pulled off the waiver wire. I once said that if you developed even #3-5 starters, it would have value because you don't pay a Matt Garza or Randy Wolf eight-figure salaries. The same logic applies to these bench type-players. Mitchell and Small rounded out my top 6, and both will be good.
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