Harold Hutchison

There is still a non-zero chance Hummel is Jake Elmore without the defensive value, but he was legitimately one of the most productive hitters in the Southern League last season in his first go around in AA, so that has to count for something. That the power increase happened in AA rather than AAA makes it seem a little more legitimate. Hummel's numbers have always pointed to him as a very underrated contributor on offense. I see him as a OF/1B/C off the bench at worst - but think his walk rate and power looks a lot like Mickey Tettleton's 1988-1996 seasons.

Bumping up my ballot.

Castellanos would likely require a 5-year deal for at least $15 million per year. I don't think a one-year deal would be something he'd take. Murphy is only one year for $8 million, with another $6 million for the buyout. If he does well, and takes the mutual option, the 2021 price goes up to $12 million, but if he provides what he did prior to 2018... it''s a steal. And, Vilade comes along in the deal, and he could lock third base down for a fair bit of time after Murphy. The price aside from the contract - Trey Supak - is one I'd be willing to part with, even with his very good performance since he was acquired with Keon Broxton.

And how many of those "top picks" are not with the teams that drafted them in this list? Syndergaard (Mets), Grandal (Dodgers/Brewers), Yelich (Brewers), Realmuto, Hader (Brewers), and Bauer all jump to mind.

I don't think Murphy will be awful offensively, especially as a left-handed hitter in Miller Park. Baseball-Reference predicts an .805 OPS in 2020. Murphy as the starter at third with Sogard and Gyorko on the bench makes the team much better in the aggregate. And the Crew doesn't just get Murphy - they get Vilade, too.

Murphy is not the lone acquisition in the deal - Vilade becomes the SS in AA as well, and provides a high-average, high-OBP hitter with some speed who had double figures in doubles, triples, homers, and steals in 2019. Supak is one of the Crew's pitching prospects, but not the only one.

I'm tempted to agree. There is zero evidence to support this. But we hear this a lot in today's society. As children, we're taught (hopefully) that "well, everyone else is doing it" is not a valid excuse. And, let's be honest, when we used that excuse as children it was rarely (if ever) actually true - we'd seen one or two others do it and get away with it, so we think that we can too then, when caught, we try to justify (or, at least, minimize) it with an excuse like that. Let's just wait and see what comes out of this in terms of other teams, and not make unsupported assumptions or pillory those who expose these deeds - in any walk of life... Edit: Wait, wasn't this a thread about Logan Morrison? I apologize for being a part of the derailment by responding to it and won't comment again. Fiers was warning his teammates when he was with the Tigers the following season. This wasn't coming out of the blue or anything. In a sense, it's like some of the stuff we've seen in headlines. "Hey, you need to be on your guard around X because of Y."

For position players, a lot of them are types I'd consider sleepers. For instance, Cooper Hummel has improved his OPS each year, he has good OBP skills, and plays OF and some catcher. At AAA, it will be interesting to see if he gets time at first base. There was an interview I've posted, and when the next Top 25 comes, he'll rocket up. I like David Fry, who could move up faster at third or first. He's catching, too. Maybe a future Javy Baez with more utility? Cam Devanney is a guy I'm impressed with so far. Turang's also going to be good. Devanney, if he makes the jump to full-season ball the way Ronnie Gideon couldn't could rocket up on my midseason list. I would like to know about your take on Michael Mediavilla. He has two seasons of sub-1.00 ERAs in a relief role, K/BB ratio of 7.29 over his career, and a career WHIP of 0.640. From perusing the game logs, it seems like he gets a lot more ground balls than fly balls (32 to 17, if I added the 2019 totals right).

Rockies get: RHP Trey Supak Brewers get: IF Daniel Murphy SS Ryan Vilade https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-21533/ Brewers get Murphy to play 3B and to help out at 2B and 1B Vilade becomes an option for the future at SS/3B/2B Supak will give Colorado some pitching depth.

On Andrews, I have to disagree. He's had 59 career minor league outings, pitching 92.1 innings - or 1.5649 innings per outing on average. Let's round it up to one and two-thirds innings per outing. His 2018 (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=andrew003cla&type=pgl&year=2018) and 2019 (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=andrew003cla&type=pgl&year=2019) show that he went an inning or less in only 21 of the 59 games. By comparison, he's pitched at least two innings in 26 of those 59 career outings. The other 12 were 1.1 or 1.2 innings. This points to him being developed as that "fireman" - similar to what Hader does at the MLB level. He comes in, goes an inning-plus, and gets the team to the closer. Now, let's look at Torres-Costa. His career numbers are 148 games in which he's pitched 221.2 innings. That is an average of 1.49 innings per appearance. Now, if you remove the 2019 season where he was back on the tail end after recovering from Tommy John surgery, it goes to 1.509 innings per appearance (217.1 IP in 144 games). Or, just enough to say we could round him UP to the same one and two-thirds innings that Andrews has. Taking the 2015 (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=torres000qui&type=pgl&year=2015), 2016 (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=torres000qui&type=pgl&year=2016), 2017 (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=torres000qui&type=pgl&year=2017), and 2018 (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=torres000qui&type=pgl&year=2018) logs into account, we see Costa has done more of the LOOGY/one-inning appearances, but in 2017, he had seven appearances of more than three innings - and went as many as four and a third innings (13 outs) in a single appearance. He's still been more likely to go over two innings in an outing as opposed to less than an inning. But again, looking at the pattern of usage over the full minor-league seasons... Torres-Costa also appears to have been used in multi-inning relief, often to shut down an opposing team. Again, you could say it's the same sort of role Hader's in at present. The Tommy John may make him more of a Claudio replacement. The game logs and the numbers tell me that their performance will be a factor in Hader's availability. If they are both performing at their 2018 levels... that will have an effect. The same will be applicable if they both have Zack Brown flameouts and get lit up. The former scenario makes Hader more available. The latter scenario will make him less available.

As far as I am concerned, Fiers is a guy who I would seek to bring aboard when he's a free agent after 2020.

To answer your first question, not necessarily. Say we're contending with Suter, Knebel, Burnes & Peralta, or even three of the four, pitching well out of the pen in addition to Hader. You could deal Josh for a haul, deal a lesser prospect for another reliever (think Soria/Swarzak/Pomeranz trades) & still have plenty of bullpen depth for the stretch run. To answer your second question, the praise the offseason moves have drawn from some is because they are low dollar, short term deals. If they don't work out, as some inevitably won't, we aren't stuck. We can move on with little hindrance. There are no guarantees of anything. I can realistically see scenarios where we are in contention at the deadline & keep Hader, in contention at the deadline & deal Hader, are out of contention at the deadline & keep Hader or are out of contention at the deadline & deal Hader. Stearns & company seem to have constructed the roster with specifically that sort of future flexibility in mind. Actually, it could very well be the Crew has Hader/Knebel/Suter/Peralta/D. Williams/Claudio dealing at the major-league level, with Rasmusssen/Andrews/QTC/Barker/Perdomo/Olczak also dealing at AAA... Deal Hader for a haul, select some of the minor-league deals (Rasmussen/Andrews/QTC), then maybe deal Olczak and Barker to get help elsewhere (a Moustakas-type deal).

It is possible that these moves don't work out as well. There are other possibilities: Maybe a team is so desperate for bullpen help, they DO blow us away with an offer for Hader. Perhaps Rasmussen, Andrews, Barker, QTC, Perdomo, annd Olczak force their way to the bigs by dominating AAA, and thereby expand the window of acceptable returns for Hader.

Next offseason is more likely, if you ask me. By then, the Crew will have a better idea how Rasmussen, Andrews, QTC, Perdomo, Olczak, and Barker have shaped up and if they will be MLB-ready. If three or four of them are... then you can expand the window of acceptable returns for Hader to include blue-chip prospects.

After 2002, they were probably necessary. To be honest, I think that 2004 injury did derail Helms to a fair degree as well. One of the issues I have with sabremetrics is that it seems to forget - or actively dismiss - the undeniable fact that baseball is ultimately played by people - who have feelings, emotions, etc. that can affect how well they play the game. Jean Segura and Gary Sheffield are two examples where that went south, albeit for different reasons. On the other hand, getting that chance or being shown loyalty - that can turn things around the other way. If baseball were all about dollar signs, the Cubs would have won the division title in 2018 and 2019. We know that is not what happened.

I'm of the opinion that as with the bullpen, a lot of the depth has to come from AAA. At least one of Burnes-Supak-Brown-File-Jankins needs to emerge as a contributor by the end of 2020. Maybe there are some potential NRI types, but at some point, the Crew needs to develop the players.

Except they signed Sogard 4.5 Gyorko 2 Smoak 4.5 Garcia 8.25 and Lindblom 3 for the price of Donaldson 23. Zero long term risk, and all their non needle moving probably moves the needle quite a bit. Obviously everyone would take Donaldson over Sogard and Gyorko. But 23 doesn't equal 6.5. True... but for their 23, I think the Brewers get more wins. Heck, for less than the AAV of Dolandson's 4/110 demand, the Crew adds Anderson as well. In the aggregate, this does more than Donaldson. The bullpen will feature Rasmussen and Andrews at some point. $1.2 million for a pair of Hader-lite relievers.

Beltran is now apparently out as well.

He didn't deserve it, IMO. OPS+ of 103 in 2003, 80 in that 2004 season derailed by injury, and 112 in a part-time role in 2005.

The future is, the Astros lose a bunch of good players after this year...and their 2 TOR pitchers after 2021. They lose their 4 best draft picks over the next 2 years. Any endorsement deals for the team and players will certainly take a hit. The $5 million fine. Their front office is in shambles. They likely won't be able to attract the best talent to fill vacancies. Every team hates the Astros, and I'd be surprised if some of those hitters don't eat some fastballs in ST. The championship obviously helps mitigate those losses, maybe makes it a win. But the Astros are in for some very difficult times in the near future. And who knows how good their players will be without the assistance of video monitoring to help with pitch recognition. I'll add they may very well deal with some of the ball/strike calls that Braun dealt with his first few years after his suspension. Consciously or subconsciously. They need to find a GM and manager with only a month to go before spring training. They will need to overpay free agents for the near term. Their farm system will take a hit. They have great talent on field, but it's going to be very rough for them.

Then throw Braun in there at 3rd....might have been the worst third baseman in the history of baseball. Jack Z really didn't give a lick about defense, did he The offense was epic, though... and enough for me to overlook the D.

They let Gaylord Perry enter Cooperstown after throwing spitters for years...

This was an unforced error on the part of Stearns. Just offer Hader a four-year, $34 million deal - $4 million bonus, $7.5 million a year for 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023, with a mutual option for the 2024 and 2025 seasons of $10 million per year and a $6 million buyout. $40 million guaranteed.

I think Hader's value to the Brewers is immense right now, and remains so through the 2021 season. I would not deal him through the 2020 season unless someone backed up the truck. This is the year to not just stick with Hader, but to see how the Brewers farm system's best relief prospects (Rasmussen, Andrews, and QTC) shake out along with the next tier (Barker, Perdomo, Olczak). If the top relief prospects force their way to the majors - so much the better. In 2022 and 2023, the Brewers will be paying Hader a lot of money for elite performance... and that will come with costs not seen on a balance sheet - it will be opportunity costs. Losing out on free agent X - seeing player Y walk. Furthermore, the return will not be as great. I think Forbes is off on the salary - four years of arby means a total price tag of $45-50 million, not $30 million - and as such, the 2021-2022 offseason is the last chance to really get good trade value for Hader.

Pulling this thread up... one has to wonder if QTC had not needed Tommy John - do the Brewers still deal for Claudio? Based on his 2018 performance... I think he would have made the team.