Harold Hutchison

This is a close one. Do I think Keuchel would have been a huge asset over three years? Yes. Woodruff, Keuchel, Lindblom, B. Anderson, Lauer would have been an excellent rotation, since you get a bullpen that starts off Hader, Knebel, Houser, Peralta, Suter. That, with the lineup the Crew has, can win a World Series. That said... $18.5 million a year for four years (assuming the option vests) is a lot of money and a lot of time - and should Milwaukee tie up so much in one player? There's a good case to be made for saying "No." The payroll limitations are real. Could the Brewers have options that provide most of Keuchel's production for much cheaper from the mix of Supak/Brown/Burnes/Roegner/File/Francis/Bettinger/Rasmussen who spent a lot of time in AA/AAA? Yes, especially if Burnes becomes the Burnes of 2018. Ultimately, I can see why Stearns passed on Keuchel. I can also see a good case for why some can say Stearns should have ponied up the cash.

This is a close one. Do I think Keuchel would have been a huge asset over three years? Yes. Woodruff, Keuchel, Lindblom, B. Anderson, Lauer would have been an excellent rotation, since you get a bullpen that starts off Hader, Knebel, Houser, Peralta, Suter. That, with the lineup the Crew has, can win a World Series. That said... $18.5 million a year for four years (assuming the option vests) is a lot of money and a lot of time - and should Milwaukee tie up so much in one player? There's a good case to be made for saying "No." The payroll limitations are real. Could the Brewers have options that provide most of Keuchel's production for much cheaper from the mix of Supak/Brown/Burnes/Roegner/File/Francis/Bettinger/Rasmussen who spent a lot of time in AA/AAA? Yes, especially if Burnes becomes the Burnes of 2018. Ultimately, I can see why Stearns passed on Keuchel. I can also see a good case for why some can say Stearns should have ponied up the cash.

Yeah... and looking at that... I would not have had a problem paying Gio that sort of money, on the one hand. On the other hand, the Brewers have Trey Supak, Zack Brown, Thomas Jankins, Cameron Roegner, Dylan File, Bowden Francis, and Alec Bettinger who were starters at the AA/AAA level. They have Max Lazar, Noah Zavolas, Ethan Small, Aaron Ashby, Scott Sunitsch, Antoine Kelly, and Ian Exposito at the lower levels. Some of those will have parts to play this season or soon. And they could do very well, indeed.

Yeah... and looking at that... I would not have had a problem paying Gio that sort of money, on the one hand. On the other hand, the Brewers have Trey Supak, Zack Brown, Thomas Jankins, Cameron Roegner, Dylan File, Bowden Francis, and Alec Bettinger who were starters at the AA/AAA level. They have Max Lazar, Noah Zavolas, Ethan Small, Aaron Ashby, Scott Sunitsch, Antoine Kelly, and Ian Exposito at the lower levels. Some of those will have parts to play this season or soon. And they could do very well, indeed.

Thanks for the observations. What matters a lot to me is where they found these picks: Not in the first or second rounds, but most are in the 5-25 range. This is where the Brewers need to hit. Cooper Hummel, Brent Suter, Clayton Andrews, and other "draft steals" are what Milwaukee needs to get a lot of. Maybe a big part of this is finding "market inefficiencies" - ground-ball pitchers or control artists.

Thanks for the observations. What matters a lot to me is where they found these picks: Not in the first or second rounds, but most are in the 5-25 range. This is where the Brewers need to hit. Cooper Hummel, Brent Suter, Clayton Andrews, and other "draft steals" are what Milwaukee needs to get a lot of. Maybe a big part of this is finding "market inefficiencies" - ground-ball pitchers or control artists.

Urias happened because we got a "sell high" point on Grisham who exploded. Lauer's control took a very solid dependable 2 years of Davies. Narvaez took the comp pick and Hill. You don't get a lot of shots to pull those moves. DS hit multiples in one off season. He hits 3 every year on top of the draft and it's going to go a very long way. I also think the farm is much more interesting that MKE's farm rank points out. MKE has raced guys to the majors. Hiura, Peralta, Burnes and Grisham (Urias) could still be in the farm if MKE wasn't as aggressive as they are at moving up guys who are succeeding. You look back on recent drafts and how some of the advanced age arms are producing and you realize there could be a few guys in MKE or knocking on the door by years end. Most don't profile as top 2 options but 3s through 5s galore. They have a ton of OF prospects that are athletic freaks who could blow up just like Harrison or Grisham any year. There's quite a bit of cost controlled talent in this system. (MiLB and MLB) Throwing 3 more into that fray this year was a big boost. Furthermore, getting 3-5 starters through the farm is valuable in and of itself. While Keston Hiura looks like he will be a star, I would argue that the selections of Bowden Francis, Alec Bettinger, Max Lazar, and Dylan File could be just as important - and maybe more so when you consider them in the aggregate. Use them to fill the 3-5 spots from 2021-2024, and we don't have to turn to Jeff Suppan, Randy Wolf, or Matt Garza to fill the middle of the rotation. That saves payroll. What happens there? Maybe you can make that free-agent splash for a year or two.

Agreed Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I hope not... Too many years, too much money.

I wonder if the Mariners would be a fit: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-19159/ Brewers get: 3B Kyle Seager LHP Justus Sheffield Mariners get: SS Orlando Arcia It is viewed as a minor overpay by the Brewers by Baseball Trade Values, but I doubt that site factors in the park factors.

Hmmm... this could be an interesting deal with the Mariners: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-19159/ Brewers get: 3B Seager LHP Sheffield Mariners get: SS Arcia 26-man breaks down like this: ss: Urias 2b: Hiura lf: Yelich rf: Garcia c: Narvaez 1b: Smoak 3b: Seager cf: Cain pitcher bench: Pina, Braun (1B/3B/LF/RF), Sogard (SS/2B), Healy (3B/1B), Gamel (OF) rotation: Woodruff, Lindholm, B. Anderson, Houser, Lauer bullpen: Knebel, Hader, Suter, Peralta, Sheffield, Claudio, Yardley, Faria

Reclamation project? In the Stearns era, I'll quote Pippen, "That doesn't sound so bad." The next Wade Miley/Gio Gonzalez/Jordan Lyles would not be a bad thing for the Crew.

Smoak has always walked a lot, and he has some clear power. If he is in the 2017-2018 form, this is a good deal. Than again, if Ray rebounds, if Taylor does well, if Erceg turns things around, and if Cooper Hummel shows that his third-place WRC isn't a fluke... they may be supplanted by home-grown talent. There is a wave of talent. Not a ton of first-rounders or folks conventionally considered "blue-chip" prospects, but at times, Cam Roegner, Supak, Dylan File, Bettinger, Lazar, and some others have really flashed dominance. They're going to be in the high minors. Then there's Andrews, Rasmussen, QTC... lots of talent.

I'd love to have him, but you have to pretty confident that he's a lock for NL RoY to justify giving up Hader and blowing up our bullpen. What if Knebel struggles? It makes the team dramatically worse to trade Hader unless we're getting a proven return. The big unknown is how the Crew views the relief options in the minors - Andrews, QTC, Rasmussen, Perdomo - and how close they are to the majors. If they think Rasmussen and/or Perdomo can replace Hader... they'd be more willing to make a deal.

I'll speak up here as one of the prominent advocates for making McNeil the centerpiece of the deal. One of the reasons I like McNeil is the fact that he has racked up pretty good numbers in Citi Field, a park that has been even more friendly to pitchers than Marlins Park. If he simply continues those numbers, he is a huge asset to the Brewers. He locks down third base. Given the park factors involved (and I have posted the comparisons before), I think it is very possible for McNeil's offense to take a level up, just as Christian Yelich's did when he arrived. He's cheap for at least one more year, possibly two. He has five years of control. He can play third base, and he already posts very good offensive numbers. In the NL Central, he's an upgrade at third over Moose. He makes Healy the backup at 1B and 3B. The Brewers could do much worse than McNeil.

If he's 2020's version of the 2017 Eric Sogard... I'd be cool with that.

Okay, I kind of like this signing. He still comes with control - earliest FA is 2023. Also, he is coming from T-Mobile Park (93 hitting/94 pitching multi-year; 95/96 one-year) to Miller Park (101/101). So, I bet he'll see a few more go in the stands rather than end up as outs or doubles. So, this could work out well, if he keeps healthy. Only has played third and first, though. I suppose in a pinch, they could use him in left...

You are kidding right? McNeil is good but Kevin Smith?? He was horrible at AA ( .209/.263 - 151 Ks in only 463 ABs) Baty is still in rookie ball and 4-5 years away. Brewers can do much, much better. Kevin Smith the LHP. http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=663325#/career/R/pitching/2019/ALL 3.15 ERA, 130 K in 117 IP, 1.26 WHIP

JD Davis also cannot play defense. No way am I trading Hader for Davis alone. Not a chance. Yeah, this is just not an option, especially with Braun at 1B a lot in 2020. McNeil, Kevin Smith, and Brett Baty for Hader.

Been thinking over Scooter Gennett, and wonder if a reunion may bee just what the doctor ordered. Gennett had two monster years with the Reds, then lost 2019 to injury. But the Baseball-Reference projections think he will pst an .802 OPS in about 300 PAs. With that in mind, is it worth it to give him an offer structured like this? 2020: $3 million w/$500,000 bonus for 350 PAs, a $750,000 bonus for 450 PAs, and a $1 million bonus for 550 PAs. 2021: $4 million w/$500,000 bonus for 350 PAs, a $750,000 bonus for 450 PAs, and a $1 million bonus for 550 PAs. 2022: $7.5 million team option ($2 million buyout) that vests if he has 900 PAs over the 2020-2021 seasons 2023: $10 million team option that vests if he has 550 PAs in the 2022 season He could play third base (he had 10 games there in 2017), and also has seen limited time in LF and RF.

Over the last two years the Brewers +13 differential versus their pythag is the second largest margin behind only Baltimore at -14, so over the last two years anyway, pyhtag has been awfuller at predicting the Brewers record than all but 28 other teams. Full list if anyone is curious... BAL -14 MKE +13 LAD -11 SEA +11 WAS -10 KCR -9 SFG +9 ARI -7 CIN -7 CLE -7 HOU -6 COL +6 PHI +6 CHC -5 NYY +5 MIN +5 ATL +4 TBR +4 CHW +3 PIT +3 DET -2 BOS +2 OAK +2 NYM -1 STL -1 LAA -1 TEX -1 SDP +1 MIA +1 TOR 0 Milwaukee arguably has made the best use of the talent they have acquired over the last two seasons. Speaks well to Counsell and Stearns.

I've been all for McNeil as the centerpiece of a Hader deal for a while. Smith may be that platoon guy the Crew needs for Braun at 1B, or who could take over in left when Cain needs a day off (Yelich in CF), Yelich needs some rest (Braun in LF, Smith at 1B), or even when Garcia is banged up a little (Yelich inn RF, Braun in LF). Two prospects I like are Brett Baty, a third baseman, and Kevin Smith, a left-handed starting pitcher.

Two slightly out-of-the-box possibilities: Jeff McNeil (Mets) - Mostly played 2B, but has seen some significant action at 3B. Could have a Yelich-like jump playing half the time in Miller Park. Cesar Hernandez (FA) - Again, mostly, a 2B, but he is fast,and has OBP skills. Probably better as a bench signing, but I'd take him.

There's a reason the Mets hid Davis in left and first... I don't think he's an option at third, or a good one. With Garcia, I think that moment has passed. That said... I like the idea of taking Lowrie/Familia to get a bigger haul. How about this? https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-18912/ Brewers get: 3B Baty (minors) OF/1B Dom Smith LHP Kevin Smith (minors) IF Lowrie IF McNeil RHP Familia Mets get: LHP Hader RHP T. Williams OF Taylor SS Arcia Get Baty and Kevin Smith as a payment for taking Familia/Lowrie off the Mets' hands... We lose Hader. Sucks, but I get McNeil and Dom Smith to fill holes. Add a trade of Erceg and Wahl for Chris Archer (https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-18913/), and now things get interesting. Hre's what the lineup looks like: ss: Urias 2b: Hiura lf: Yelich/cf: Yelich rf: Garcia 3b: McNeil 1b: Braun/Smith c: Narvaez cf: Cain/lf: Braun pitcher bench: Pina, Lowrie, Mathias, Gamel, Broxton rotation: Woodruff, Archer, B. Anderson, Lindblom, Lauer bullpen: Knebel, Suter, Houser, Peralta, Rasmussen, Claudio, Familia, Yardley

Bell is a switch-hitter, which means there is less need to platoon him. Is he as good as the breakout year? No. But I think he can provide Thames-level production. I think the Brewers could do with Archer what they did with Lyles, Miley, and even Gio to an extent. It is more of a salary gamble than Brett Anderson, but Archer arguably has a higher ceiling. Then, of course, comes the other part, Ji-Hwan Bae. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=bae---000ji- He's fast, has good OBP skills... and a good hit tool. A bit of a Brice Turang clone, but I like him.

I like the Anderson signing - a lot. I think it is the kind of gem that the Brewers need to pull off until you get a flow of pitchers from the minors. That said... at this price... Wade Miley would have been a good addition as well.