My analysis is below. (keep in mind this is coming from a Duke fan first who also roots for Bucky)... actually I have 3 teams - Marquette/Duke are 1 and 1a, then Wisconsin. I root for Wisconsin when they are playing anyone but MU and Duke. I have seen a lot of Badger games and I have seen almost every Duke game this year. Anyways... - Duke owned UW in the first match up. But... - Duke shot lights out. They wont shoot 65% tonight. (Good for UW) - UW got very little from Dekker. (Good for UW) - Duke had Sulaimon, who played well. (Good for UW) - Hayes will do better than he did in December. (Good for UW) - Duke is a much better defensive team now. (Good for Duke) - UW got a career game from Jackson. I dont think Jackson + Koenig can get 28 pts tonight. (Good for Duke) - Winslow is wayyy better than he was in December. (Good for Duke) - Matt Jones is no longer a non-existent player like he was in Dec. (Good for Duke) Overall, I think Dekker and Winslow are pretty evenly matched. Same with Okafor and Kaminsky. Same with the bench players (Dukan/Jackson/Showalter/Brown vs. Jefferson/Allen/Plumlee). I think Hayes (if he's right) gives UW an advantage, but Cook/Jones could give Duke a slight edge in guard play. UW has the "experience" and they are "closers". But Duke has Coach K, and some freshman who dont play like freshman. - All in all, I think it's a great game, likely to go down to the wire. - UW is susceptible to long droughts (Duke should take advantage to a UW drought better than Kentucky) - Both teams are good closers, especially when they have any sort of lead in the last 4 minutes. Uw slightly more so. My pick: - My analysis and recent history tell me UW wins a close game... But Duke has been completely under the radar, and that should scare Bucky fans. Plus UW to me has a bigger chance of laying an egg after that Kentucky win. (it honestly seemed like UW won the championship Saturday night) I think Duke wins by 4.