But Fielder isn't worth $25m over 5 years (Howard definitely isn't). On a one year contract, Fielder at $25m would likely be in line with his expected value. But the Brewers take on way too much risk for five years at that price, there just isn't any discount for them taking on the risk. Fielder's top upside is likely what he did last year, a 6.8 win season. But he could have another 2008 which was a 2.8 win season. And that's without injury concerns thrown in. At $20m it may make sense, at $25m it doesn't.