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Everything posted by endaround
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Calling a bunch of 22-23 year old pitchers scuffling in A mid tier prospects is generous. Bell would likely cost less but the Nationals might want the value in one prospect than multiple. Something like Kelly and Erceg.
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Calling a bunch of 22-23 year old pitchers scuffling in A mid tier prospects is generous. Bell would likely cost less but the Nationals might want the value in one prospect than multiple. Something like Kelly and Erceg.
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You can easily build an offense from center field if that is where your hole is. This all assumes that Bell from the first half is Bell going forward. That is far from assured. Tellez has a wRC+ of 118, basically average 1B play which is a win for Stearns in comparison to prior years. Bell has an wRC+ of 147. That is a big difference. However, The Brewers aren't getting those PAs, they are getting future plate appearances. All projection systems have Tellez maintaining that 118 wRC+ going forward. The projection systems are all over the place for Bell, ranging from 121 wRC+ which is indistinguishable from Tellez to a 140 wRC+ which would be an improvement. Now this range isn't that surprising given Bell has a BABIP of .331 compared to his career of .291. And Bell's career wRC+ is 118. But the idea that Bell is a sure fire upgrade is not supported, especially when defense is considered. We have seen Bell have amazing first halves before where it looked liked he broke out to an MVP level only for him to crash in the second half. See 2019. Bell is available and obtainable whereas some of the CF options that should be available (Mullins, Reynolds, and Garcia since they are on the wrong side of the age curve for rebuilding ) will likely not be obtainable for the Brewers. I just think Bell and Mancini as well are not the needle movers people think they are.
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You can easily build an offense from center field if that is where your hole is. This all assumes that Bell from the first half is Bell going forward. That is far from assured. Tellez has a wRC+ of 118, basically average 1B play which is a win for Stearns in comparison to prior years. Bell has an wRC+ of 147. That is a big difference. However, The Brewers aren't getting those PAs, they are getting future plate appearances. All projection systems have Tellez maintaining that 118 wRC+ going forward. The projection systems are all over the place for Bell, ranging from 121 wRC+ which is indistinguishable from Tellez to a 140 wRC+ which would be an improvement. Now this range isn't that surprising given Bell has a BABIP of .331 compared to his career of .291. And Bell's career wRC+ is 118. But the idea that Bell is a sure fire upgrade is not supported, especially when defense is considered. We have seen Bell have amazing first halves before where it looked liked he broke out to an MVP level only for him to crash in the second half. See 2019. Bell is available and obtainable whereas some of the CF options that should be available (Mullins, Reynolds, and Garcia since they are on the wrong side of the age curve for rebuilding ) will likely not be obtainable for the Brewers. I just think Bell and Mancini as well are not the needle movers people think they are.
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We know from past moves that Stearns/Milwaukee uses a projection model similar to KATOH. KATOH really dislikes Diaz (0.9 WAR over 6 years) and Harrison(0.6 WAR over 6 years). Diaz likely gets dinged just for the 2B but Harrison was both old for his level (he is only 9 months younger than Phillips) and had contact/pitch recognition issues in high A. Now KATOH does love Brinson with a 5.4 WAR over 6 years and like a ~35% chance of being a regular starter or better.
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Just wanted to note that if you talk to unemployment you may be able to get unemployment while in the academy.
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If you are in Madison, check out the wisc.jobs site. Often the state has a bunch of temporary LTE positions or less than full time positions they have trouble filling. Right now I know the Dept of Revenue is gearing up for tax returns by hiring temp workers: http://wisc.jobs/public/job_view.asp?annoid=62641&jobid=62156&index=true Check back in Jan for jobs since hiring tends to slow right now until after the holidays. The other thing about looking for state work is that many jobs require an objective exam, which is good since you can get interviews based on your score instead of dealing with people dismissing your resume.