endaround

The Brewers have 4 OF prospects for 2 positions (I don't wan to address Yelich here, but my opinion is you keep in the OF since his bat is fine there and will not be fine for 1B or DH but that is another topic). The Brewers need to find out who is going to make it and if they need to trade someone. You right now have the perfect opportunity to evaluate a player. Use it. Part of this is I think people are really too high on Frelick, Mitchell, and Wiemer. They could break out, but to me they all look like 2-3 win players. None of the three are also that young that we can expect huge growth going forward. We just traded the last arby year on a 2-3 win OFer for spare parts.

There is a lot of wish casting on this forum of the Brewers getting in high contact, high average, and low K players. This is not a new thing (Luis Urias was going to be new model of Brewer player who hits .300 and doesn't strike out!). But that isn't what is happening. Frelick is that, but those others are not. Mitchell and Wiemer are high K players likely with K rates near 30% or even higher. Wiemer may bring his down to mid 20s. Contreas is a pretty high K player as well, with a K rate above 25%. Turang is a low average moderate K player though his K rate of near 20% in AAA main mean a higher rate in MLB.

Looking at the bottom of the Brewer WAR list populated by "the next big thing". Hey, Ramon Flores is still around!

The decision is not Frelick vs Taylor. Its Frelick Vs Taylor vs Wiemer (maybe vs Mitchell). That is a lot more complicated. Wiemer hit nearly as well as Frelick in August and September in AAA without having to have really high BA. Wiemer: August .276/.319/.552 September .302/.425/.476 Frelick: August .376/.453/.462 September .354/.417/.554 It would be nice to see Frelick handed splits past A but milb.com still has issues. Wiemer has more outfield experience. Wiemer is also a year older so service time issues are less of concerns and repeating AAA is a bigger hit to his value. He also has enormous power. Now Frelick does project as a better hitter in most systems than Wiemer but that is likely due to Wiemer's bad results from AA as he was trying recover from injury. Going with the more prototypical corner outfielder in Wiemer may be a less risky decision.

OK. These both have to do with contract status in the future. To reach free agency a player needs a full 6 years of service time. If they end their six major league season with a full 6 years they are a free agent for the next season. If however, they end with 5.9 years, they are still under control of the current club in the arbitration process. A full season of credit is less than a full season (i.e. you can't just hold a player back for 1 game to prevent a full season of service) but 2 to 3 weeks should cover it (I don't remember the exact days anymore). Super 2 deals with arbitration. Typically a player requires 3 years of service to enter arbitration, but unlike free agency there is not a fixed set of time needed. Players with close to 3 years of service time after their third season will be eligible for arbitration, hence they are "Super 2" since they have less than 3 years. The cutoff date varies based upon the service time of all players in the class. Its usually about mid June but can be a week or two later so July 1st is usually safe. What does this mean then for a player? A player debuting in late April 2023 and then remaining in MLB would be under fixed contracts for 2023, 2024, and 2025. He would be arbitration eligible for 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029 becoming a free agent for 2030. Arbitration salaries tend to go 20%, 40%, 60% and 80% of free agent value so the fourth year can get costly for a really good player but its still discounted. A player debuting in July 2023 and then remaining in MLB would be under fixed contracts for 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2026. He would be arbitration eligible for 2027, 2028, and 2029 becoming a free agent for 2030. So by keeping a player down for 2.5 more months you reduce the number of arbitration years. What a team should do is really dependent on the projection for the player, if the team is currently competing and the replacements they have. Given the Brewers hope to compete it is likely more advantageous not to wait for Super 2 if they believe the prospect is significantly better than the alternative. The new ROY changes to the CBA can cause all of these calculations to fly out with players potentially receiving a full year of service time regardless of debut date. ROY is a weird vote since winners can go from solid starters to MVP level candidates. So someone like Frelick who could hit for high average or steal dozens of bases might not win a ROY but could find himself on lots of ballots in 2nd and 3rd place.

Super 2 is different than an additional year. Super 2 just makes it one less year of arbitration ( 3 instead of 4) but at the cost of close to a half season of playing time. The difference between mid April and the beginning of July.

Josh McDaniel wants his QB to buy him another 5 years of development while he once again proves he's over his head. So unless Brady goes to Vegas, they are going to develop a guy. The roster is bad and little draft capital to make it better.

The Brewers need RH platoon players for both 1B and DH. That is Hiura and Brosseau right now. The Brewers likely do not believe in reverse splits.

Hey the Brewers signed a guy who projects to be about league average with the bat! What a surprise! As for splits, I guarantee the Brewers do not believe in reverse splits hence how Hiura was used. I expect Anderson to basically be the full time 3B.

Does Hegan's 1969 count as a Brewer? I mean yes but also maybe not?

It still feels like the part going from the Brewers to the Braves is missing. Something like Black and Zamora. If its just Ruiz, hard to see how two other teams valued him that high when no one else seems to have.

Not sure why having a 2B precludes getting a 3B

Who could the Brewers have gotten? Well the Twins traded Urshela for a 19 year old 40 grade pitching prospect.

Tellez Steamer projection: wRC+ 123. Basically his power remains but his BABIP gets back to a decent .258 instead of .215. Abreau wRC+ 126 Bell wRC+ 123 The free agent that makes the most sense at this point is Contreras. Turner also makes sense but little chance he leaves LA.

Tellez Steamer projection: wRC+ 123. Basically his power remains but his BABIP gets back to a decent .258 instead of .215. Abreau wRC+ 126 Bell wRC+ 123 The free agent that makes the most sense at this point is Contreras. Turner also makes sense but little chance he leaves LA.

My answer is no, but then I know I am by myself with not trading anyone over the next two years and trying to actually win 90+ games each year. Right now marginal wins are valuable, in three or four years when these prospects are ready, the Brewers may be struggling for that 75th win. And this is what these trades are, expected wins today for expected future wins. Right now there are only 7 or 8* teams trying to win in the NL. That is likely to change in the future as the Cubs and the Nationals are not going to sit on the sidelines forever. So strike when you have the most to gain and when wins have the most meaning. In two years, you let everyone walk, get a bunch of draft picks, trade Peralta and Ashby (if he has value), trade some of the younger players coming up now (Wiemer if still on the Brewers would make sense given his age and Chourio coming up. Another option would be Mitchell) and go from there. *Well I think Colorado is also trying but in that special Colorado way which is panful to watch, so there is 9th team technically.

My answer is no, but then I know I am by myself with not trading anyone over the next two years and trying to actually win 90+ games each year. Right now marginal wins are valuable, in three or four years when these prospects are ready, the Brewers may be struggling for that 75th win. And this is what these trades are, expected wins today for expected future wins. Right now there are only 7 or 8* teams trying to win in the NL. That is likely to change in the future as the Cubs and the Nationals are not going to sit on the sidelines forever. So strike when you have the most to gain and when wins have the most meaning. In two years, you let everyone walk, get a bunch of draft picks, trade Peralta and Ashby (if he has value), trade some of the younger players coming up now (Wiemer if still on the Brewers would make sense given his age and Chourio coming up. Another option would be Mitchell) and go from there. *Well I think Colorado is also trying but in that special Colorado way which is panful to watch, so there is 9th team technically.

If your lottery ticket wins it doesn't mean that the lottery was a good investment. Gosser and Ruiz are 40 grade prospects and should be valued as such. If they turn out that doesn't make the trade any better than if they don't.

Burnes and Yelich would basically cancel one another out, so you could get back some FV 35 prospects as face savings.

Pederson was basically replacement level the previous two years before his contract. He is now a platoon bat. Renfroe will be worth 2 wins for the second season in a row. Given the Brewers spent $8.5 million on McCutchen hard to see then blanching at $10 million dollars for an actual starting level player.

Calling a bunch of 22-23 year old pitchers scuffling in A mid tier prospects is generous. Bell would likely cost less but the Nationals might want the value in one prospect than multiple. Something like Kelly and Erceg.

Calling a bunch of 22-23 year old pitchers scuffling in A mid tier prospects is generous. Bell would likely cost less but the Nationals might want the value in one prospect than multiple. Something like Kelly and Erceg.

You can easily build an offense from center field if that is where your hole is. This all assumes that Bell from the first half is Bell going forward. That is far from assured. Tellez has a wRC+ of 118, basically average 1B play which is a win for Stearns in comparison to prior years. Bell has an wRC+ of 147. That is a big difference. However, The Brewers aren't getting those PAs, they are getting future plate appearances. All projection systems have Tellez maintaining that 118 wRC+ going forward. The projection systems are all over the place for Bell, ranging from 121 wRC+ which is indistinguishable from Tellez to a 140 wRC+ which would be an improvement. Now this range isn't that surprising given Bell has a BABIP of .331 compared to his career of .291. And Bell's career wRC+ is 118. But the idea that Bell is a sure fire upgrade is not supported, especially when defense is considered. We have seen Bell have amazing first halves before where it looked liked he broke out to an MVP level only for him to crash in the second half. See 2019. Bell is available and obtainable whereas some of the CF options that should be available (Mullins, Reynolds, and Garcia since they are on the wrong side of the age curve for rebuilding ) will likely not be obtainable for the Brewers. I just think Bell and Mancini as well are not the needle movers people think they are.

You can easily build an offense from center field if that is where your hole is. This all assumes that Bell from the first half is Bell going forward. That is far from assured. Tellez has a wRC+ of 118, basically average 1B play which is a win for Stearns in comparison to prior years. Bell has an wRC+ of 147. That is a big difference. However, The Brewers aren't getting those PAs, they are getting future plate appearances. All projection systems have Tellez maintaining that 118 wRC+ going forward. The projection systems are all over the place for Bell, ranging from 121 wRC+ which is indistinguishable from Tellez to a 140 wRC+ which would be an improvement. Now this range isn't that surprising given Bell has a BABIP of .331 compared to his career of .291. And Bell's career wRC+ is 118. But the idea that Bell is a sure fire upgrade is not supported, especially when defense is considered. We have seen Bell have amazing first halves before where it looked liked he broke out to an MVP level only for him to crash in the second half. See 2019. Bell is available and obtainable whereas some of the CF options that should be available (Mullins, Reynolds, and Garcia since they are on the wrong side of the age curve for rebuilding ) will likely not be obtainable for the Brewers. I just think Bell and Mancini as well are not the needle movers people think they are.

Whoops, someone had written Dean instead of Wyatt