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endaround

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Everything posted by endaround

  1. How is Fuetnes a bad example? The market for him was soft but he still choose LA over Milwaukee. Another example is Johnson, he went to a losing team in San Fran that might squeek to .500 over Milwaukee,
  2. I always thought Texeria was more to help sell tickets in the near term and hopefully by year 4 or 5 of his deal the Nats would have had talent in place around him. That said actually putting together a winning team would help sell a lot more tickets than a local boy made good.
  3. Looper's career FIP is 4.23, Sheet's is 3.56. Marcel had Looper's FIP next year at 4.53, Sheets last year was 3.38. Looper isn't close to Sheets, he closer to Suppan than to Sheets. And this is all based on your faulty assumptions that Sheets was bad/hardly pitched in the second half and that "#1 pitchers" have sub 3 ERA for entire seasons.
  4. Except of course Cameron was worth $18.4m last year while Cabrera was worth $0 according to fangraphs.
  5. How many players are forced to adjust to the big leagues while at the same time feeling immense pain every time they swing the bat?
  6. I still get the sinking feeling that the Brewers in order to make him "tough" really screwed Weeks up by making him play two months with a wrist that needed surgery when he first came up.
  7. Who says they are comparable? I'm saying that calling Penny a low risk move for the Brewers isn't right.
  8. Not sure how Penny is low risk when he would cost $5m+ for a guy who was terrible last year might not pitch much this year and the Brewers only have like $10m to spend.
  9. I love it more because it seems to preclude Peavy and the Cubs dumped DeRosa to get Bradley which negates a lot of the value
  10. Young is neither a good hitter or a good fielder. Peralta is a good hitter but a bad fielder.
  11. I don't think it would really be that big of a deal to give him a major league deal, and then cut him if he stinks in S/T. He's a free agent so he gets paid for the full season if signed and then cut in spring IIRC.
  12. Not much difference between Sabathia and Mussina? Sabathia was fully 2 wins better last season.
  13. This doesn't affect Cameron. He's a top fight CFer not a all bat no field 1B/LFer. Hart it does affect but Hart's speed still is a different skill and teams that value that would still be interested. What it really does is kill any market for Fielder this year. Also I doubt this will affect Dunn too much given his age, but Giambi and Abreu won't be looking at getting much more.
  14. Yep, thats the thing. Cruz isn't an ace reliever. Now he's good, but his strand rate last year makes him look like sub 3 ERA when he's more like a 3.75 ERA. Now that it appears the Brewers are down to 1 1st round pick it's questionable if its worth giving up.
  15. And the Phillies signing of Ibanez looks even worse
  16. And yes Suppan's contract will keep in the rotation and it should up until the trade deadline passes in July 2010. Last August showed that Suppan can put together one good month and you'd like that to happen say in June and move him in July.
  17. Replacement level is the mythical AAAA player, a 29 year old AAA vet. Basically its what you could be expected to get for free from minor league free agents (hi Mr Nixon!). Its more a statistical construct than an actual thing meaning some positions getting replacement level is easy (1B, corner OF) and others are hard (SS because they tend to turn into utility INF and C because every team wants to carry 2+1 in AAA).
  18. UZR have him below average but everywhere else (RZR, PMR, ) have him right at average. His 2008 wasn't great but he projects to be much better in 2009 and his 2008 likely would have looked better if Yost hadn't sat him when he finally started to hit. And no team can be above average at all positions.
  19. The problem with that is the Brewers are made incredibly worse under that scenario. So while Ramirez's bat is 3-4 wins better than Cameron's projections, Hart moving to CF would cost like 3 wins defensively, Braun to RF 1/2 a win at least and Ramirez in RF 4 wins.
  20. Replace Hall with Lamb and that changes a good deal
  21. The Brewers have CFer for the future in Cain. Bucholz only pitched 130 innings last season so he's not ready to go full time at 24 next season. I think people seriously underrate how much Hardy can bring in trade. He'd instantly be the best SS in the AL.
  22. The difference is that Sabathia would improve the Brewers, there's a good chance Ramirez would not. Assuming the most likely scenario where Ramirez replaces Hart, Rmairez's bat projects soem where between 2-3 wins better. That's huge. However, Braun is likely an average RFer causing the Brewers to lose half a win in RF from Hart. And Braun is a plus left fielder while Ramirez is abysmal, causing the Brewers to go from like +15 runs to -25. So unless the return for Hart is great, signing Ramirez makes the team worse.
  23. Ramirez wants more than one year and over three years (maybe even over one given defense) Hart projects much better
  24. You missed what is the most likely: 1B Fielder, 2B Weeks, SS Hardy, 3B Gamel with Escobar still is AAA after seriously struggling with his bat in 2009
  25. Nothing wrong with a rental. One year contracts for pitchers are a good thing. You can only really expect 150 innings from Bedard. The biggest issue is that Mariners don't have to move him now and can wait to show he's fully healthy for a month before they decide anything about him.
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