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endaround

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Everything posted by endaround

  1. endaround
    The Red Sox lock up Porcello for an additional 4 years. Porcello is a slightly above average starter. He is not a huge workhorse, only going over 200 innings last year. He is now set to make over $20 million per year. Yes he's only 26, but if this is what $20 million per year is going to buy going forward...
  2. endaround
    This is all based upon Fangraph's weird playtime projections. It has Logan Schaffer getting 200 + PAs. It has Parra never playing CF and still getting as many PAs as Davis. It has Lucory getting 100 fewer PAs this year than last despite playing 1B. If pretends Clark and Rogers don't exist for the most part.
  3. endaround
    They bought out his arby years and the first year of FA with an option on the second after an age 24 4+ win season. He had an OK 2012, was injured in 2013.
  4. endaround
    If that proves to be a persistent issue over the first 2 months of the season, I'd bet one if not two of the bench residents will be different by the All-Star break if not sooner. Good thing the Brewers play in the American League so don't have to worry about finding 3 pinch hitters in a game, other wise they might give 100 PAs to Schafer.
  5. endaround
    1) Gennett is terrible base runner. 2) Gomez has all the skills of a lead off hitter and power. It would be one thing if the Brewer had no other power but that is far from the case. 3) Segura is the Brewers worst hitter Also amazing how Ramirez's spring shows he's done while Gennett's similar spring says he should lead off
  6. endaround
    I really don't get this. Davis is an average LFer with the glove He out hits Parra against right handed pitching, with wRC+ of 115 for his career versus Parra's 99. Davis is 27 and given his low 2014 BABIP might be a serious break out threat, Parra is a nice left handed 4th OFer who doesn't hit left handed pitching well enough to start full time. Hopefully this is just Roenicke making Parra sound good and doesn't turn into a starting Kevin Mench over Corey Hart Yostian debacle.
  7. endaround
    I know people don't like to acknowledge it, but Axford was arguably the best reliever in baseball in 2010 and 2011. Relievers are fickle.
  8. endaround
    This is because you have a totally unrealistic idea of how many clean innings a pitcher should get. A pitcher with an OBP against of .250 , which is really good, will only get a clean inning 42.2% of the time (.75^3). So 57.8% of the time there will be at least one base runner.
  9. endaround
    That is what Melvin does all the time. Only this board ignores that it happens all the time because they have signed a handful of free agents (who blocked no one) and the preferred story is that Melvin never lets anyone in the minors prove themselves at the major league level. The Brewers have developed their C, 2B, RF, LF from the minors traded for their SS when a prospect and really developed their CF who did next to nothing before the Brewers traded for him. They are going with three home developed starting pitchers.
  10. endaround
    How can you say you don't like it without even knowing what they're getting back? Sure if they trade him for Aaron Poreda and Adam Rosales, that's an awful deal but if they got Joey Gallo and Alex Gonzalez (not happening but I'm making a point) then I'm not sure how anyone could not like the deal. Let me rephrase and say for this coming year, I don't like it. And that's because I'm pretty sure it'll be prospects and I see the drop-off from Gallardo to Nelson as substantial... for this year. I wanted to give it another shot this year + Lind. So I'm disappointed with the move. For this coming year. I don't believe we're getting some other great pitcher to take his place. Hope I'm wrong though. Nelson and Gallardo basically project to be the same. By Zips they have an ERA 3.94 vs 3.95 and FIP of a 3.92 vs 3.98. The big issue is who the sixth starter then is. I have no clue who that would even be at this point assuming they aren't stretching out Smith (which would not be a terrible idea).
  11. endaround
    Segura was not good last year. I get that he's young and has talent, but I think its shortsighted that the Brewers didn't bring in anyone to give him a serious run for his money. He does have options left. This is one area where I have to hand it to the Cardinals. They are not afraid to play their young players and they're not afraid to option them if they're not producing. Wong is a most recent example. Also, there are 486 games between 2B, SS, and 3B. You have durability/age issues at 3B and platoon issues at 2B. Hell, if you just divide that by four, each guy would get 121 starts if you brought in someone like a Drew or Lowrie. Depth would be greatly improved, another LH bat, etc. etc. But, those ships have now sailed. Certainly a missed opportunity for a team 'going for it' in 2015. Drew was not good last year. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/did-stephen-drew-ever-look-like-a-major-league-hitter/
  12. endaround
    Jorge De La Rose was not that guy for another two years. KC dropped him because he was so bad. Brantley would have been a 4th OFer in Milwaukee. He likely never would have gotten a break out chance, and since his "break out" was heavily luck dependent likely never would have happened even if he got playing time this year.
  13. endaround
    1. Why would anyone trade for Parra if Aoki is available cheaply? 2. If Aoki was coming cheap KC would have likely resigned him instead of the remains of Alex Rios for $11m.
  14. endaround
    Peterson looks to be better than Schafer so i don't get the worry here. His steamer projection: .253/.331/.381 wRC+99 Schafer's steamer projection: .234/.298/.341 wRC+77
  15. endaround
    right you use that $10 m to get the great Billy Butler!
  16. endaround
    The Marlins or the Dodgers selling high on Gordon?
  17. endaround
    Hey its not like Super Genius Theo ever hamstrung a large market team with killer contracts before...
  18. endaround
    Maybe this needs to be bumped for people to see what the Brewers actually look like. They are average or better at every single starting position. And this is assuming freaking Luis Jimenez is platooning with Lind. There is no break out for Davis projected, no platoon for Gennett, and Fiers is expected to regress back to average. The rotation is 6 deep. Not sure what people think a good team looks like if they are saying this is a team that will struggle not to finish last.
  19. endaround
    We all remember that with Samardzija the Cubs were all set to win 95 games and then they traded him.
  20. endaround
    He's also coming off a hip injury which makes his future really scary.
  21. endaround
    You're right that is crazy. It's about 3/4 of what Headley really should get. He projects at 3.9 wins next year. So for four year you would expect something like 3.9, 3.4, 2.9, 2.4 wins for a total of 12.6 wins. At $7 million per win that should be a $85-90 million contract.
  22. endaround
    Markasis Is projected for about 1.8 wins next year. Reducing that by 0.5 wins each year we get 1.8, 1.3, 0.8. and 0.3 for a total of 4.2. At $7 million per win that is $29.4 million. He's getting $44 million.
  23. endaround
    The Mariners get a expensive OFer who was below average last year who is coming off surgery and has a PED target on his back and is signed until 2020. The Brewers get an even more expensive OFer who somehow was even worse in the field than Braun and a lateral to slight improvement at SS. The Dodgers get a young LHP who has had good success in his first 17 starts, a young cheap SS and to off load a OFer and his monstrous salary. Yeah...
  24. endaround
    I don't get the whole "Why didn't we sign a 35 year old below average player for two years? Why did Melvin spend less money and get a younger comparable player?"
  25. endaround
    Grantland put together trees showing the longest tree for each team. For teh Brewers, its Segura. Also of note is the Philly tree which is just Jimmy Rollins. http://grantland.com/features/mlb-transaction-trees/
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