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endaround

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Everything posted by endaround

  1. endaround
    The Brewers have 3 reserve outfielders, Jenkins is about to get pulled for defensive reasons, and still he faces a lefty specialist.
  2. endaround
    Clark should have been out. Did Moeller step in for a moment?
  3. endaround
    ESPN used to until they were embarrassed by teh fact that teams with greatest percentage of productive outs were terrible offensively and those with the lowest were the best offensively.
  4. endaround
    Teams also tend to be molded to fit their home stadium.
  5. endaround
    Yes. If for no otehr reason than having the last set of ABs gives the home team a large advantage in close games.
  6. endaround
    Glover was much much worse than Obie. Obie had a few good starts. Glover had like one. His RA+ is 63. Obie is at 82. About all Glvoer has going for him are his ks.
  7. endaround
    The real question is how many games until Dusty ruins Williams' arm?
  8. endaround
    The problem wasn't Eveleand against Berkman. It was not bringing in a right handed pitcher to face Vizcaino who hits like Magruder from both the left and the right side. Yost should have turned Vizcaino around. He got lucky but it was still a stupid thing not to do and no decision against Bagwell would have been needed.
  9. endaround
    Because you need to turn Berkman around. He's human from the right side, devestating from teh left. And Lamb is a lefty. Eveland was teh right call to begin the inning. There is a question of whether to remove him after he failed, but a lefty was definately called for.
  10. endaround
    Helling had nothing to do with it. Obviously the Astros don't have the Eye of the Tiger and their lack of heart doomed them.
  11. endaround
    The Twins couldn't get it done with U of Minn on their side so I don't expect it tio happen unless all sports (save the Packers of course) get together asn make it hard on cable companies. As to why no games, my guess is their ad rates are based upon a gaurenteed minimum level of viewers with refunds if those levels aren't met, which would almost certainly happen over the next two games. As to why no broadcast TV, broadcast TV doesn't want it. The Brewers had to buy airtime to get on the last few seasons and they decided not to do so this year. They may next season on some open Sunday games, but don't hold your breath.
  12. endaround
    Right it isn't a multinomial. A multinomial has fixed probabilties and mutliple (more than two) states. Here we have changing probabilties and still just two states. It is series of binomial draws with differing probabilities. You could take an expectations operator through it and firgure out the various moments if you want, but doing it analytically really doesn't gain that much. edit: Finding the mean isn't hard though--its just the mean of the individual binomials added together. The variance becomes more tricky. If the mean is m, and the distribution d, then the variance is: E(d^2)-m^2
  13. endaround
    One of the best bunters Darron has ever seen had two foul bunts in the same AB... Still getting over the Brewers having been blessed to have Clayton play for them...
  14. endaround
    It won't be on ESPN HD. It will be on FSN---though I don't think sattelite carries FSN HD.
  15. endaround
    The really weird thing about Lee is that while his OPS has been projected fairly correctly his components are way off. He's reaching base at amuch lower rate but hitting for more power.
  16. endaround
    The important thing to note is that the probability weight has shifted from the bad side of .500 to the good side. So the Brewers have better chance at a winning record than a losing one.
  17. endaround
    Russ, what are you running this in? Just excel? The reason I ask is if you could get a histogram of the final records, that'd be cool.
  18. endaround
    105 pitches after struggling through an inning and he bats...
  19. endaround
    I see Damon as a Cub
  20. endaround
    Puljos, no. The average major league player? Yes. Stats can't and won't be reliable for all palyers. All Joe is saying is that MLEs are just as unreliable as looking at major league stats going forward.
  21. endaround
    I've been meaning to write a magnum opus about luck (well not so much mangum opus but more of a well thought out monograph). What Russ is talking about can be called luck but really isn't. All he's saying is that even a season isn't necessarily a large enough sample size to gaurentee that a .250 hitter hits .250 for the year.
  22. endaround
    Again people don't understand stats. You were saying Branyan is gotten out when needed to. Bjames comes up and shows that isn't the case. No sample size stuff here. Its fact. Bjames isn't the one making any prediction. Others based only looking at Branyan's failures while ignoring his successes are the ones who are making predictions off biased and even smaller samples.
  23. endaround
    Your best bet is to look at Win Shares. While far far from perfect it does give you a way to compare the numbers. Hardballtimes calculates Win Shares weekly.
  24. endaround
    The chart shows the probability of the given record or better. Though I think the math might be wrong since a 15% change in probability in the one game (from 81 to 82) is big compared to the other changes (assmuming Russ didn't update his winning % as the reord changes)
  25. endaround
    My question: Say Jenkins did come up again and hits a home run, would you have him run out of the baseline after he touched third in order to get that triple?
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