Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic

endaround

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    11,013

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Forums

Blogs

Events

Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings

Milwaukee Brewers Videos

2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project

2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by endaround

  1. endaround
    Actually I think your making a mistake by throwing Jenkins in with Clark. While Jenkins H/BIP was 21 points higher than his career average, his BIP was actually 20 points below his career average.
  2. endaround
    The markov chain is a sim. Basically its a fancy way of looking at a two state variable (there maybe 3 states here for walks, but likely teh two states are on base then not on base with getting on base further broken down once established.)
  3. endaround
    Pete the manager kept on inserting Pete the player into the game to the detriment of his team.
  4. endaround
    A real stats guy will only laugh at that because Excel has had some serious problems doing calculations. Stuff you've done so far shouldn't be two bad. But I've heard when you start getting into huge data sets Excel's math breaks down. SAS really isn't too bad to work with. Now getting hold of a "legal" copy not supplied by school or work isn't cheap.
  5. endaround
    Steroids and gambling are not the same thing. Gambling was forbidden by MLB, steroids were not. Yes steroids were illegal, but illegal actions never kept people out of the Hall otherwise good ol' Mollie would not have his plaque there.
  6. endaround
    Ohka's number is for WAS only. With the Brewers it was over .300.
  7. endaround
    Al, OXS does not treat OBP and SLG the same. Its basically like a geometric mean which has very different properties than an additive mean (which is similar to OPS). Look at an example where you have two familar OBP and SLG scores, .350 and .450. Gvien than You have an OPS of 800 and a OXS of .1575. Now increase the OBP by 10 points. OPS goes up to 810 and the OXS goes up to .162. Now increase the SLG by 10 points. OPS is again 810 but OXS is .161. OXS rewards values close together and given teh scale that OBP and SLG operate on, it weights OBP more heavily.
  8. endaround
    Given that they were better hitters than Lee, yes it does matter. And given Lee scuffled when the better hitter was behind him that makes little sense that the manager would ask Lee to do more. Lee's OBP was bad because he has never walked that much throughout his career and he hit for a terrible average this season.
  9. endaround
    Doing straight VORP comparisions of those players, especially Cruz and Hart, will be difficult unless you also give projected PAs. My guess Cruz is projected to have less than 200 PAs in each season and Jenkins is projected to miss half seasons all over the place.
  10. endaround
    Other Lee faults: BA OBP VORP Defense RBI/baserunner Lee supporters are the ones who dismiss all stats to focus on RBIs and to a lesser extent HRs. There is nothing out there that projects well for Lee going forward.
  11. endaround
    To answer your first question, yes. Lee is not anywhere close to Delgado. Delgado was twice as valuable as Lee
  12. endaround
    That year to year consitency of dropping 35 points in BA? The drop of 80 points of OPS?
  13. endaround
    DHonks, Weeks was worse than Spivey if by Spivey you mean the healthy 2004 version. But since Spivey only had 263 PAs in 2004, Weeks ended up contributing about as much.
  14. endaround
    Lets tell a story! There was once a baseball team with two veteran players, Player L and Player O. Now they just finished a season where they hit the following: Player L: &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp .265 &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp .327 &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp .487 &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp .814 Player O: &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp .276 &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp .367 &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp .449 &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp .816 Now both players were due for raises! However Player L was more established and so he will earn more, in fact he'll earn $8.5 million. Now Player O isn't going to do too bad he'll probably get $2-$3 million. But GM M has a dilemma! His boss Mr. A gave him a very strict budget and to make his team better he has to scrimp and save as best as he can. Now it just so happens that there are two minor league players who could replace Player L and Player O! So let's introduce Player H who could replace Player L and Player F who could replace Player O! How did they hit in AAA? Player H: &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp .308 &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp .378 &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp .537 &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp .916 Player F: .289 &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp .379 &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp .559 &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp .937 Fairly similar, huh? Especailly when you consider that Player H is very fast and fairly good on defense (best of teh four players in our story). But something is really strange about the fans of our baseball team! They seem more than willing to dump Player O for Player F but blanche at having Player H come in for Player L!
  15. endaround
    Well that's the point. Lee delivered like a $5-6 million player. He's going to be paid $8.5 million. And likely $9 million the following year.
  16. endaround
    Well it almost always goes without saying Coors in on another plane. So of normal parks, The Cell is a big HR park and tops in the AL. The Cell isn't a great hitters park but it is a very good home run park and has been for a while. 2nd behind Coors this year, 1st last year, 2nd behind Coors in 2003, 6th in 2002, 8th in 2001 and even those years, it has a ranking of above 20% above average.
  17. endaround
    Not really. They were below his 2004 but fairly in line with his previous seasons (lower average, more power). And keep in mind the Cell gives away HRs more than any other park.
  18. endaround
    The Brewers haven't had a right handed bat better than Lee's since way back in 2003! Whatever happenedto that Sexson fella? I mean unlike Lee the Brewers didn't even have a top prospects waiting to replace Sexson! I don't believe Lee will be with the Brewers in 2007 given he'll want $10 million or so a season since he'll have 7 straight years if 30 Hrs and 100 RBIs or whatever. If thats the case, Cruz or Hart are likely to palying full time in 2007. Gvien the chance that the Brewers improve by another 15 wins in 2006 is slight, and that Cruz/Hart would otherwise be rookies in the OF in 2007 I'd rather see them start in 2006 and be fully ready to contribute in 2007.
  19. endaround
    All I'm saying is that a non-lead off hitter usaully doesn't come to the plate that much. I'm not saying Lee will get injured but he seemed to nose dive in September after missing what, one PA the entire season? I really doubt he can be expected to make every single appearance going forward and I'm not sure is smart for him to do so. Its not so much reducing what he did but offering comment on projecting that forward.
  20. endaround
    The only reason Lee was so high in VORP was the fact he got near 700 PAs. Counting on that again (even if thats a good thing) isn't smart.
  21. endaround
    That said, baseball lines seem to be really screwy with teams often getting a 66% chance to win a given game. I would guess that if you went bak and lookd at the lines and bet against Clemens every single start this year, you'd have made a nice sum.
  22. endaround
    I really think fans focus on such plays because they believe they could produce in those situations. "Anyone could lay a bunt down, so why can't stupid X do so!" Of course anyone can bunt a 45 mph softball. Try that with a 95 mph fastball striking a wood bat. and keep in midn that 95 mph fastball isn't likely to be moving straight.
  23. endaround
    Batting average is important. In fact OPS takes it into account heavily since BA makes up the major proportion of OBP and is a major component of SLG%. That said, its the idea that BA conveys everything. All .300 hitters are not the same thought often they are treated as such. Alex Sanchez(or Willy Tevaras) can hit .300 and still be a bad player. At the same time, Adam Dunn only hits .250 but is one of the best hitters in the league.
  24. endaround
    If that is the case you can't make any decision ever. I mean you make think Albert Puljos is a good hitter, but you can't apply that on October 5th 2005 because all those stats are just aggreagtes from before!
  25. endaround
    Huh? They say alot. They say having your .300 hitter bunt runners over to second is incredibly foolish.
×
×
  • Create New...