The top high school pitchers tend to do ok, but in general more college pitchers reach the major leagues and of pitchers who do reach the major leagues, college pitchers tend to have more success. May have probably seen this, but I'll link to it again. It covers most of Callis' sample (not the last three years because those pitchers aren't old enough to fit in the study's guidelines). It doesn't necessarily match up because it takes the top 10 pitchers regardless of round. Basically, the study says if the choice is between the #1 high school pitcher and the #1 college pitcher, take the college pitcher. #1 high school vs #2 college, take the top high schooler. sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=neyer_rob&id=1811682