jeffy

There are 12 games left, time to fire him.

No, because first of all the strategy was to go for it because they were apparently not going to get a big return by trading him. Even if they did not make the playoffs that would not mean it was not worth trying to do so this year. Secondly the goal is to make the playoffs, after that there is a lot of luck involved in how far they go.

Well, baseball as a whole is full of idiocy over that meaningless stat. It means $$$ for relief pitchers. It means potentially having a "rock star" entrance (ala. Hoffman). Managers make decisions on who pitches based on that stat. Fans think the manager is an idiot if the best relief pitcher is not the "closer". It means your best relief pitcher sits in the bullpen when a game may be on the line, because it is not the ninth inning and/or you are, say behind by one run or tied, but with a 3 run lead in the ninth you will trot that best reliever out there even if it will be his third game in a row.

a bit more detail... http://blogs.palmbeachpos...to-release-mike-cameron/

This gives some percentages: http://sigroup.wordpress....eanest-baseball-players/ Since #5 is only at 4% the last 10 got 4% or fewer votes. Also says 215 players responded, 4% of that is 8.6, so to be #6 on the list means probably about 8 players voting for you.

Well, assuming a odds are 50-50 that they will win or lose each game there is about a 3% chance of winning 5 in a row (0.5x0.5x0.5x0.5x0.5=0.03125). If the Brewers have a 3.1% chance of losing 5 in a row and the Cardinals have a 3.1% chance of winning 5 in a row, multiplying those odds tells us that there is a 0.098% chance of both occurring. Even if you put the odds of the Brewers winning each game at only 30%, there is a 17% chance that they lose 5 in a row, similarly if we give the Cardinals a 70% chance of winning (dubious, given 4 games against Philly) they have a 17% chance of winning 5 in a row. That would put the odds of both occurring at about 3%. I think reality is somewhere in between, maybe the Brewers do have close to a 70% chance of losing, but Cardinals vs. Philly is likely under a 50% chance of winning. Suppose we go with 65% chance of Brewers losing each game, that puts them at about a 12% chance of losing 5 in a row, now give the Cardinals generous 50% odds against Philly and 65% against the mets and they have a 4% chance of winning their next 5. The odds of both things occurring are then about 0.5%. Cardinals have 13 games remaining. In their last 13, they are 10-3. If they manage to repeat that in the next 13, the Brewers will have to go at least 5-7 the rest of the way. In their last 12 games, the Brewers are 6-6. Surprising as this would have seemed back in late August, maybe it will come down to the last day, again. A while back I was thinking they'd likely clinch in Cincinnati or Chicago, but that it could possibly happen at home vs. CO. Now I think (hope?) it will happen vs. FL.

The "natural rivals" are a factor, when we play the E or W, there are still 6 games against a team in the AL Central.

If he were on the Cardinals, I say he probably untucked his shirt.

6 teams in the NL Central, 5 teams in the AL Central, so you have to bring in teams from other divisions to make a schedule.

Cincinnati gets Yankees, Cubs get Red Sox, this presumably means the Cardinals get neither of them, again. http://www.cbssports.com/.../entry/22297882/31975039

What he said is "I'm not fine" and "I'm a little disappointed". He seems to be fine with being on the team and is willing to do whatever they ask him to. Why should he not wish that they would ask him to close? Why would you want him to be "happy" about not being asked to do that? The goal for relief pitchers is to be the closer. Would anyone think he was telling the truth if he said he likes pitching the 8th, rather than the 9th?

Which is why a fan of Houston should be expected to propose moving the Brewers, then Houston stays in the NL central. Were I an Astros fan, I'd feel the same way..."boot the newcomers and leave my team alone". Another, more complicated option that moves a newcomer to the AL would be FL/Miami to the AL east, Pittsburgh to NL east, Toronto to AL central, KC to AL west. The only reason there is this issue over who to move to the AL is that MLB stupidly decided in 1997 that having the current arrangement was preferable to having interleague all season (oh, the horror). Also interesting is that the Brewers are only in the NL because KC declined the opportunity, think of where we'd be if they had taken it...would the powers that be be saying Houston should move or that KC should now go back to the AL?

And then...in game 1, Hart leads off and gets on base. TLR puts revenge ahead of getting the the WS, Carpenter plunks Nyjer followed by a 3 run homer by Braun or Fielder. Brewers go on to win the game 3-2 and the NLCS in 7 games http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

Yeah...look at geography and get back to us on this idea. Uh...it is certainly a workable (if frightening) plan, Brewers to AL central, KC to AL west. I could certainly see folks in Houston saying, "why should we move rather than the team that only joined the NL in 1997?"

You don't have to go to the extremes of one team winning/losing only 1 or 2 games. If the Brewers were to go 4-10, while the Cardinals go 11-5 they end up tied. Of course, the better chance for a Cardinal team that finishes by going 11-5 would be to hope that the Braves go 6-9 or worse.

Yet that still left them with $427 million in revenue for 2010, $155 million more than the next highest team (Boston) and over 2 times the median (Houston with $197 million).

While the Brewers success has seemingly come from beating up on losing teams, the Phillies' has come from beating up on left handers. They are 30-9 vs. left handers and "only" 64-40 vs. right handers (essentially the same winning percentage as the Brewers have against right handers at 70-44).

That seems odd coming from a fan of a team that can only ever possibly spend about 1/2 as much as the top teams on player payroll. I am very curious as to why you feel this way, can you explain? In the DH discussion I indicated it would be unlikely that I would continue to follow the team if the Brewers demonstrate that it is really just about impossible for them to really compete with the top teams, the NL adopts the DH, and the Cubs get a GM that can transform them into a NL version of the Yankees (as that adds to the hopelessness). If there is no NL DH, but the other two things occur (hopelessness for the Brewers and the Cubs are an NL Yankees) it is very hard for me to see myself getting transformed (back) into a Cub fan, but that would seem to be the most likely outcome.

Well, they have kind of done that haven't they? But why not go further, put a a couple flags in the QBs pants, pull the flag out and he is down. Actually didn't they decide they went too far and then back off some on the "protect the QB" rules? (I don't follow football very closely)

I realized the days would switch, but hadn't thought about the game time.

I'm pretty sure the Brewers still win the division because they are done with teams over .500 after today, while the Cardinals still have 4 at Philadelphia. But I now expect them to lose in the NLDS. Oh well, this probably means I'll be able to get tickets a lot cheaper...cheapest tickets on stub hub for NLDS game 2 have dropped by about 30% so far, from $85 to $59. As someone posted, I did start thinking they had a good chance of getting to the WS. They could still get lucky as Philadelphia will have to win a short series against someone and luck can be a big factor in a best of 5. The Brewers did win 2 of 3 and came close to sweeping them back in April.

Yeah, I think I may be done too, should it come. But the Brewers demonstrating that it is really just about impossible for them to really compete with the top teams may just do it, as well. Perfect storm would be the Brewers post season vs. Philadelphia goes about like this series has, the NL adopts the DH, and the Cubs get a GM that can transform them into a NL version of the Yankees.

I am pretty sure that the wild card never gets home field. They have to play the division winner with the best record, unless that team is in the same division in which case they play the second best. The top two division winners will get home field advantage. The Brewers are about to be passed by AZ. If it ends that way the the Brewers will play Philadelphia in the first round (unless St. Louis would manage to pass Atlanta).

I think they keep the DH controversy alive to distract us from the real problem with baseball, which is the economic disparities. I hate the DH, but I am getting tired of feeling like I am ultimately following the opponents of the Harlem Globetrotters by being a Brewer fan. Selig and the rest should stop wasting time on minor issues like realignment, adding wild cards, DH or no DH, replay, and inter-league play and first deal with the elephant in the room...but they won't. The Brewers could sign Fielder and CC and their payroll would maybe reach to about the level that teams like the Angels, Cubs, White Sox, Mets have had in recent years. This still leave them $25-30 million or so behind Philadelphia and Boston, not to mention $60-70 million behind the Yankees (11 teams have their entire payroll at about $70 million or less). With the team going "all-in", I expect the Brewer's post season to most likely go something like the last two days or like the games against the AL East in June.

Hmm, same thought I had about your ridiculous scolding over the misspelling of Nyjer. The was nothing "unfortunate" about it, Nyjer, Nyger, and Niger are all pronounced exactly the same. As indicated above his name is actually just an alternate spelling of Niger, which is a river in Africa, as well as a country.