Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic

igor67

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4,712

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    3

 Content Type 

Profiles

Forums

Blogs

Events

Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings

Milwaukee Brewers Videos

2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project

2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by igor67

  1. igor67
    I can't recall any other remotely similar deal, where a team gave up that much to dump salary.
  2. igor67
    If every ump for years and years has awarded the base in that situation, it is the rules otherwise we'd need to go back and question how many no hitters from the 90's with incredibly wide zones or how knows what else.
  3. igor67
    Why worry much if at all about dumping salary? We have no true albatross contracts, undoubtedly the budget will probably shrink, but throwing away the possibility of getting a real prospect, so we can save a few million on Lohse is not going to help the team turn around. I agree that taking the best prospect they can get is a much better strategy for the Brewers, middle IF is about the only position I'd think about turning down right now. PS If I could get them to throw in a second guy of some value I'd be willing to pay Lohse's salary at this point (which would still save a little on K-rod anyway)
  4. igor67
    Here's to hoping Denson, Gatewood, and Harrison lay waste to the Pioneer league
  5. igor67
    General thought, given the rarity of any trade deal involving multiple premium prospects anymore (seems like that only happens in true Ace deals) I tend to prefer 1 centerpiece type in these larger deals and then go for quantity. Not taking only long shots of course, but the difference in prospect quality seemingly once you get that far down the list is low enough that I'd rather have multiple shots at getting a second useful player out rather than a slightly higher chance of just one guy making it.
  6. igor67
    You have to wonder though if he does turn it around we'd still have to protect him in all likelihood again right? Or does half a season of poor numbers do enough to mask a good potential second half?
  7. igor67
    A run of the mill June is not going to substantially alter Braun's trade value. The May hot streak certainly did because it answered the short term questions about the thumb. More broadly trading Braun now goes against Melvin's typical pattern and years of public comments. He believes bats get more value in the offseason, while pitching gets inflated at the deadline. Now it is reasonably clear based on the number of other atypical moves this year that the team is serious about getting younger. That does not mean it happens over night, that does not mean DFA every veteran because their all deadweight (correct no one has suggested that, but they have come quite close). We'll see Melvin be patient looking for some kind of real value. And unlike Cole Hamels we have a pretty strong incentive to wait and see if a lot of guys restore value. Aramis, Lohse, and Garza are unlikely to bring a big return, but until they are taking spots that would be better used acclimating younger players let them play and realize that we have until the waiver deadline at the end of August to hopefully get some value. K-rod seems like the best bet to yield something respectable by the real trade deadline, and maybe if were lucky the right team persuades Melvin to deal Gomez or Segura now as well, but in reality Segura stays for awhile and Gomez gets moved in the offseason. Next year we probably play for another top 5 pick, and can evaluate at that point how some other guys fit into the broader picture. Developing guys is too up and down a process to predict years in advance precisely which year is when they start to jell (see Astros).
  8. igor67
    Multiple first round draft picks forfeited and long term loss of their market size compensation pick. Under the current rules that would be a huge blow and comparable to the advantage they got from that level of cheating.
  9. igor67
    Didn't really expect the Roache promotion at this point, since he had cooled down to doing alright.
  10. igor67
    No question in my mind that it is far more important that low level minor leaguers earn better pay, between spring training and other potential expectations it is a full time job for the whole year. Most of those guys won't make it and they are providing a service to the real prospects by helping them field a team. 20-25K a year is not unreasonable. 1 year of A-rods salary can support 1,000 minor leaguers at that price.
  11. igor67
    I lean towards it being worthwhile even if no one changes their mind this year. Any of them who might sign would immediately be pretty good prospects with a chance to be high ceiling types, it is just incredibly rare to find those types of players any more with normal late round picks. On the other hand you are kind of playing the field with all manner of things that might change their mind and cause them to sign. In the last few years you had Scooter not getting to his ACT test on time and losing his scholarship, and Dylan Covey discovering he had diabetes (in that case he went the other direction away from signing, but frankly some unexpected like that would seem to make it more likely for a kid to want to take 500K+ on the spot).
  12. igor67
    Lost in the comments was the fact that Jungman had a pretty solid game, respectable peripherals and only 2 runs allowed in 5 innings.
  13. igor67
    I agree with the main part of the story, but when it comes to weighing the value of the signing bonus, I think it is important to measure its value against the earnings penalty they take to play minor league ball. As you indicated the Rays tend to move their players quick, so that is less of an issue, but a bonus doesn't have to get too much smaller than 500K for playing pro-ball to be a less than obvious 'investment'. A big issue would have to be that by getting paid out in a lump sum they get taxed at a much higher rate for the first year, which leaves a lot less to divide up among their other underpaid years in the minors (again compared even to other entry level jobs with a diploma). Without running a full spreadsheet I'd wager that a typical college senior hits the break even mark with about a 200K signing bonus. Obviously if he makes it to the majors that's a different story, but it's worth recognizing that some of these seniors or others may in fact be paying 10's of thousands of dollars for what amounts to a lottery ticket. It's harder to think about, but a second important cost is the impact of delaying starting a real career until your late 20's. It's not hard to accumulate a lifetime of lost income in that situation where you are always earning less than a similarly aged peer because you have less experience, make it to management later etc.
  14. igor67
    That last one is pretty harsh, but looking at who the Brewers found in later rounds this year maybe not harsh enough. If you were say the Dodgers or Yankees and could be reasonably confident you'd be drafting in the back half of the first round the next couple of years and the tax was only an irritant wouldn't it be worth it particularly in a high talent draft to go after guys late even more than the Brewers did? How many extra top talents might a team hoard with that approach?
  15. igor67
    I don't know that it is enough to not demote him. The base hits have been coming for Gatewood the last couple of weeks and even a walk or two, but is it enough to say he's going to have a good enough season where you'd feel comfortable sending him to Brevard next year? I'd love to see it of course a raw 19 year old settling in to have a successful season in A ball is a big win I just don't want to over react to a couple of weeks if it might hurt him in the long run.
  16. igor67
    Both players are raw high schoolers if they are successful in high level rookie ball in their first full season that is a big win.
  17. igor67
    I don't know that I would pursue this strategy every year of taking 'unsignable' kids, but it certainly feels like it has a better shot of panning out than drafting say the Russel Wilson's of the world. After round 20 maybe 1 guy from the next 20 rounds might make it to the big leagues for your team and when he does he is almost always a utility, 6th starter type of player. I would agree that there are a couple of months for things to change. Or there might be something to the notion of getting a closer look at these guys for down the road, since you can talk to them much more in depth than pre-draft.
  18. igor67
    While it would be almost impossible for me to deal Sano, Buxton, or Arcia if I was the Twins I would definitely be in under no illusion that the team was this good. Fortune however has spotted them a bunch of games and I'd take a look at making a few mid range moves for lower valued prospects to make it a .500 team going forward and a good chance of getting to the playoffs as a result. No reason to waste all of that good luck on a boring second half.
  19. igor67
    Franly Mallen is having a much better start to the year than last year, not amazing but hitting over .300 and his K rate is down quite a bit. They seem to have found a formula for finding good to excellent defenders in Latin America that can also hit a little bit to bolster the SS ranks.
  20. igor67
    Nelson with a pretty good night. I like putting in Perez for Aramis there.
  21. igor67
    And the lead.
  22. igor67
    Far from a scout, but Clark might be able to stay in CF for awhile but he does not look like a body type that will keep it up past his mid 20's
  23. igor67
    I respect the projection concern on his power, but considering 2 of the guys in the top 10 this year weren't even drafted, and 2 of the players showed power for the first time this year to leap into the top 10 I wouldn't throw up my hands and think he won't develop enough for LF.
  24. igor67
    Are the Brewers possibly in a position to take Cameron, and a lower guy in the supplemental round and maybe play a little bit of chicken over the bonus? You'd potentially have huge flexibility next year if he didn't sign with almost surely a top 10 pick to go with 16.
  25. igor67
    I agree that a trade of Segura probably does maximize his value to the team. Melvin has acquired a small little army of young IFers with some potential that could all use playing time to develop. Most of them outside of Arcia are unlikely to be special, but could be solid and if you let them play for awhile in a down year you might see them develop enough to figure out who can start and be pretty good with Arcia in a year or two, who could now be an asset off the bench (much easier after you've broken through with enough playing time) and who was nothing or even possible other young cost controlled trade bait.
×
×
  • Create New...