igor67
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Everything posted by igor67
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Businesses do not have to slavishly follow the cult of profit at all costs [The history of Bell labs is an excellent example of a corporation whose executives spent a lot of time about maintaining a public good, and as a result gave away royalty free more technology than all of Silicon Valley's net worth namely the computer chip and telecommunications satellites], this is a relatively new conception of the various stakeholders a business has, so trying to maintain a general sense of public goodwill is not a flimsy defense. Arte Moreno just did a nice demonstration of the lengths an owner might go to.
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Had Sosa been exposed by that point? I'm sure the entire Balco circus added another layer of complexity as well. Yes once some other teams had been forced by suspensions to players under contract it became different
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It is difficult to recapture that moment, but it frankly is not that hard to imagine at the height of the frenzy that all of the AL GMs would just want to stay away. It's different now because the rules forced guys to come back onto active duty after their suspensions. I'd wager that if contracts had been invalidated (not saying they should) after a positive test, a bunch of other guys might have joined Barry on the street for along time, before someone got brave enough to hire them back.
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Maybe they should add a trades column to the box score for tonight?
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It certainly seemed like Yadiel started to turn a corner last year offensively and put up enough offense to see him as a major leaguer. The start to this year though makes it look like he could be a solid starter not just a bench guy.
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Neither Hart nor Burntiz were introduced as comparisons as prospects. Certainly Hart as a prospect was a wildly different type of player all the way around. Burnitz's prospect days are a little before me. The point in terms of thinking about a ceiling was that both were players who at their peak had an All-star or 2 caliber season and around 10 years of being productive players. So it was about total career value, not how the players got there.
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The original comment on the 'splits' strikes me not as being about the writer being too into scouting by numbers, instead it is either just a mistake (got the wrong data/ scouting report from someone) or they don't actually have any idea what a reasonable platoon split is. It was also rather questionable because from the get go he was a bat first prospect, and from the get go there were questions about whether or not he'd stick at catcher, but he still had a bat that would play elsewhere.
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Particularly if we end up stripping down the team, I'd be seriously inclined to look at skipping some of those guys over Colorado Springs. I have very little confidence in pitching there actually helping those guys develop let alone figuring out how to judge when they would be ready.
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I thought the 7 walks were impressive especially since wily didn't walk a batter, so it wasn't just a tight zone.
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On the radio broadcast the pointed out that before tonight they had only scored a total of 5 runs in the first inning.
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I guess I see Coulter's ceiling more like Jeromy Burnitz/ Corey Hart with numbers adjusted for the current era. Not a great average hitter, but with enough power and patience to post some very good OPS' but has a relatively short peak at that rate with a number of other solid seasons.
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The platoon and his age probably means you can't get an overall top 25 type prospect, but in an offense light era his platoon bat is pretty impressive. He should be worth a couple of a teams top 10 prospects with the length and reasonableness of the contract. It's not hard to find an OK lefty platoon partner to give a lot of value. I don't quite think Lind makes up the full 6 games we finished out of the wild card on last year's team, but we'd have been playing meaningful games into the last series.
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It's not too hard to say that any A-ball player could end up a platoon guy (plenty have over the years), as you said you tend to be very sober in your prospect analysis and I just couldn't figure out where the scouting angle was coming from because it is so qualitatively different from what we see other places, and the numbers don't really back it up either. Now if they had written that up for Roache it would have seemed a lot closer to the mark.
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So within the last week Baseball prospectus ran a little feature http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=26253 The whole point of which was to take a look at fringe prospects, as in players who get less attention. They did one from each team focusing on Coulter, which struck me as an odd choice, but on the larger prospect stage he certainly gets less ink than other guys. The more surprising thing was that he rated out currently as a platoon bat, with a ceiling of an average OFer. I couldn't recall anyone being that critical of him before. They stated that his platoon split was unusually large, but in both of the last 2 years there is about a 100 point spread in OPS which is not unusually high for a guy who is posting .900+ OPS. I was inclined to let that go but yesterday's chat was also dismissive of him as a prospect. Are we missing some actual flaw in his game? I mostly think the BP guys are ridiculously wrong here, but thought I'd toss it out for discussion
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It's far from a guarantee that trading Lucroy and Gomez 'turns things around'. In both cases you need to get one prospect who plays just as well as those 2 players to get back to a .500 talent team. That is no small feat in itself, both players have put up MVP contention quality seasons. To get better you'd need at least one other above average kind of player to make a difference in the quality of the team down the road.
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I think it would be a great joke if they all came out tonight and tried to mimic Counsel's stance for an AB.
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In the abstract getting BPA is the best way to go, but I do think you are much more likely to get the best player by targeting players lower in the minors. Actual results may differ (you might find really good AAA guys who are blocked for example). For me it is less about bunching those guys to come up together, since one could imagine some of the best current players like Coulter and Arcia moving either fairly quickly (up at some point next year), or more slowly. The more significant issue is that you need to have playing time for the guys you are acquiring, the draft is unlikely to add more than 1 player who makes it to Appelton. As a result you could fit quite a few guys into the low or high A rosters that would be prospect upgrades over the current guys. This is where it starts to get tricky. Prospects like Roache are great value if they break-out you also get a high ceiling type, but if they are taking time away from say a Micheal Reed with a lower ceiling, but a guy who seems like he is likely to develop into at least a role player...
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The epic collapse is quite the apt description. .500ish teams will have seasons where they fluke into enough wins to make the playoffs. This is a feature of the amount of variance in baseball performance. The Brewers did not go into a slow decline last year, they played out of their minds the first month of the season, and then played as expected heading into the last week of August. At which point they put up a 9-21 record to end the season (which coincidentally is the record we'd have if the Brewers went 4-3 in the next week). They only finished 6 games out of the playoffs which means conservatively they only needed to finish the season a .500 team to make it. Given that 6 of those loses in the last month were to the Giants and Pirates they could have only needed 5 more wins (with 1 against either of those two teams 87 wins gets them in). This is the essential point in the 2 wild card era 1 really hot month is easily within the realm of possibility for middle of the road teams, and that is all it takes to turn a whatever team into a playoff team. It doesn't matter much if it happens at the beginning, middle or end of the season. All of the same probabilities apply to having ridiculously bad months. Last year's hot start was no particular justification for believing that the Brewers had found a formula for building a dynasty, and this years slow start is no particular evidence that mediocre teams can't get lucky.
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Jonathan Lucroy Trade Challenge
igor67 replied to Matt Breen's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
My general parameters would be 3 or 4 players total coming back two of whom are excellent prospects (would move some guys out of our current top 5 prospects) I want at least 1 starting pitcher, though I'd certainly take 2 if they had the depth they were willing to deal, but I'd think it a little more likely to get a pitcher and a hitter and round out the trade with the best guys you can get regardless of position. -
Those predicting the demise of the Brewers deserve no particular credit. As they rightly claim they have been doing so for years. And that's why there are no bonus points to be had. If you take a .500ish team and play enough seasons you'll get some real duds, which is what this year looks like. But you also get years like last year where it took an epic collapse to keep them out of the playoffs. I agree however that the time has come to significantly turn over the roster, but to maximize value in the trades you do execute you want to preserve that leverage (without being Amaro Jr. level obstinate), so offering the older short termers makes sense. One would hope that over the next month or so some of their performances would improve, so you could justify getting something. However if done particularly well one could preserve the plausibility of playing for next year until you do something drastic like get an excellent offer on Gomez. That rampant fear many have of the same old same old actually makes it much easier to bluff that Melvin will just go status quo. It is also worth noting that it is much easier to see how the team could turn over much of the roster and be back to an interesting team in a year or two than at any point in the last 3 or 4 years. We could still use starting pitchers and a performing first and/or 3rd base prospect, but its not hard to draw up a major league outfield and middle of the diamond with guys on the farm.
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Might be worth doing a pre-draft prospect survey again towards the end of May. It certainly hasn't been all sunshine and roses on the prospect front, but there have been a lot of positives and certainly looks like some movement that would be worth codifying before we try and slot in the new draft picks.
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Actually the football equivalent would be more like letting the kicking team immediately sub out the kicker/punter for a tackling specialist in the event of a block.
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Very excited about Roache's start and given his age I'd like to see him get a midseason promotion. But given his lack of success in past years whether it is building confidence or making sure it isn't just a hot streak he needs to mash for a little while yet. As for Coulter I'm OK if he spends the year in A+, but he's hit pretty well all the way along and has always been a big bat guy, so to me he's a guy you move along since it sounds like the defense is doing OK. Again young enough that you want to see it's more than just a hot streak, but if he' still above a 1.000 OPS at the end of May it is hard to make a case he has a lot to prove in the FSL.
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Quite the day so far on the farm, Matos continues to find that stroke he had going last year at Helena. DeMuth with 3 hits and a HR again.
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At nearly the 70 PA mark both Coulter and Roache have OPS' over 1.000 in the FSL. Small sample size or not, that is impressive. Maybe even terrifying to the Southern League, imagine if the bumped Kyle Wren up to AAA to clear space for both Coulter and Roache right now?